#AE17 draws to a close; what’s your punt for count day?

Tonight we have Slugger’s Big Election Punt (in partnership with MW Advocate) where our panel will have to make some key predictions about the upcoming election. In that spirit we thought we would ask you about what you think will happen tomorrow in terms of the parties. For what it’s worth here is my punt (Some variation as a few seats such as South Belfast & Upper Bann are just too close to call). DUP; 30-31 Sinn Fein; 23-24 UUP; …

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#BBCNIDebate sees energetic exchanges & a broad range of issues discussed

The five main party leaders gathered at the BBC Blackstaff studio tonight to discuss issues such as RHI, Brexit, Direct Rule & cross community voting. Chaired by Noel Thompson, he very ably directed candidates and the audience through out the night. For me, the strongest performance was from Colum Eastwood. For parties like the SDLP, just letting people know that you are on the stage is an achievement and he did this in spades tonight. From the opening segment on …

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Aiken believes that the UUP could win more seats than Sinn Fein

It was a bumpy ride for Steve Aiken on Nolan yesterday. In politics it is a good thing to go into a contest with high ambitions but they also need to be credible. For information the UUP are running 24 candidates, Sinn Fein are running 34 candidates. UUP are at roughly 13 seats in a 90 seat Assembly, Sinn Fein are at around 24 seats. As for the DUP they are running 38 candidates and are at 31 seats in …

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A border poll can be held at any time

There’s widespread misunderstanding of the legal provision around holding a border poll which seems to rear its head not only on social media, but sometimes within the print media and even among the ranks of senior politicians. It’s an innocent enough situation, but it could become important in the period ahead as we start coming to terms with brexit and Northern Ireland’s relationship with Europe. The misunderstanding holds that, following the implementation of the Good Friday Agreement, a border poll cannot be held unless there …

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DUP received £425k for the Brexit referendum

The wait is over and we now know how much the DUP received during the Brexit referendum and just who donated. RTE reports that; The Democratic Unionist Party has confirmed that it received £425,000 from a group of business people led by a Scottish Conservative party member and passed it on to help fund the UK pro-Brexit campaign. The money was used to help finance an advertising campaign in Britain during the EU referendum. The money was given to the …

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Is there an election coming up?

I took the end of last week for half term. That meant minimal social media, no newspapers and not watching or listening to the news. It was a happy couple of days in a little bubble known as the real world. In that world, there is very little inkling that there is an election coming up. Imagine! Even when out and about, Lagan Valley is a poster-free zone so how normal voters who aren’t generally about to watch political programmes …

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DUP set out their battle lines in a question less manifesto launch

The DUP launched their manifesto at Stormont Hotel today. The document which is basically an appendix to their 2016 Manifesto sets out some of the party’s approach towards the negotiations that are likely to follow this election. Arlene Foster set out 10 principles; 1. We will work to avoid Direct Rule and get local government back at Stormont as quickly as possible. That means we will work with all of those who have a mandate to see if it is …

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Arlene says ‘it’s dangerous to transfer to nationalists’, but without cross community transfering it’s just another standoff…

I can only assume from the demeanour of DUP friends that this latest statement comes in reaction to wisdom distilled from the doorsteps… “It is dangerous to advocate supporting candidates who are Pro-United Ireland above preferences for fellow unionists. The greater the number of nationalist MLAs elected the stronger the push will be for a Border Poll.” She then goes on to point out that neither the SDLP nor the UUP had enough candidates in this election to supplant either the …

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“is Gerry the Genius sure he has thought all this through?”

In today’s Irish News, Newton Emerson asks the impertinent question… Remarks by Mike Nesbitt about cross-community voting distracted from what should have been the major story of the week. Northern Sinn Féin leader Michelle O’Neill has said her party will not return to the executive with Arlene Foster as first or deputy first minister until the DUP leader has been cleared by the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) inquiry. O’Neill added this was a red line issue – something Sinn Féin …

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A Women’s election?

Andrée Murphy is a Columnist with the Andersonstown News Sitting in my living room on Thursday night seeing three women leaders of the local parties and two male leaders on the two fringes made me chuckle. I tweeted it was hard to believe that it was Michelle O’Neill’s first time in the spot as leader, such was her composure and capability. But then I also realised that it was also Naomi Long’s first time in that position too. I suppose …

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Electoral Reform Society finds little transfers between opposite blocs.

The Electoral Reform Society has today released findings from their survey of how we voted last May and the findings really blows a hole in the idea that transfers will be flowing from Unionists to Nationalists or vice versa. The study draws on data from thousands of respondents – over 4,000 – to create the largest database of voting patterns for NI. It shows that while only a small number – 4% of Catholics and 2% of Protestants – give their …

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Running to stand still – how the move from six seats to five seats could hurt the UUP much more than the DUP

Previously, I looked at what might be expected from next month’s Assembly election if the current polling, showing a fall in support for the DUP with a corresponding rise in support for the Alliance Party and the UUP, is indicative of public support. The forecast model anticipated that the UUP could expect to receive 14 seats under such a scenario, which would be a respectable result given that they won 16 out of 108 seats in the previous mandate. However, …

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Where did the DUP get £250k for that Brexit Metro wrap around? (Answer: NI law says they don’t have to tell us)

When it comes donations and party funding, Northern Ireland is to the UK political world, what Panama is to tax. Peter Geoghegan and Adam Ramsay with a nice piece of investigative journalism at Open Democracy: A quarter of a million pounds is unlike anything the DUP has spent in the past. Just a month before the EU referendum, the party won 38 seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly elections and retained its position as the largest party there. To do …

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Mike Nesbitt is pitching to his voters to use their judgement, not to his candidates. It makes perfect sense

Most commentators have stated the obvious. Whistling through their teeth as they praise him for being brave in classic Yes Minister mode – .i.e. suicidal – the best that can be said for him  is that he should have looked forward to cooperating with the SDLP after the election and left it at that. But that was to miss the point. What Mike Nesbitt did was break a taboo by  daring to propose voting outside the big tent. If not …

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Obsessing about vote management is inevitable but shouldn’t distract us from what happens afterwards

Ulster Unionist leader Mike Nesbitt has predictably taken a hammering over his personal choice to vote SDLP next. The Newsletter has helpfully quoted 8 UUP candidates who think otherwise. They can hardly be blamed. Most of them  rely on DUP transfers to  get elected and aren’t expecting SDLP transfers anytime soon. They mortally fear a DUP plump that leaves them high and dry and in some cases, Sinn Fein cosy and warm and elected  instead. So why did Mike do …

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Opposition Parties risk turning #ae17 into a referendum on themselves rather than the past decade

The SDLP Leader, Colum Eastwood has an interesting piece on the Eamonn Mallie website which is worth reading in full He stops short of the full declaration that Nesbitt made yesterday on The Sunday Politics but he does make the case for shifting from the DUP and Sinn Fein as he writes; The SDLP has not been historically in the business of advocating formal transfer pacts and we will not be advocating such a pact in this election. However, it …

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Arlene’s partial withdrawal will not close the crocodile’s jaws. Remember what happened after a previous DUP leader said “never?”

I would contextualise David McCann’s well- balanced report of Arlene Foster’s partial climbdown a little differently.  How will she now follow through?  Gerry Adams is bursting to  know. He or Michelle O’Neill  and will challenge her shortly. All the other parties will join in the chorus. When columnist Eilis O’Hanlon, a keen debunker of  Sinn Fein positions  joins the club of critics and accuses Arlene Foster of lack of commitment  to “the long term interests of unionism” we know the …

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Foster “Once again we stand at the political crossroads”

Arlene Foster has taken the Irish News to write a platform piece seeking to debunk myths about her relationship with Sinn Fein On the Irish Language Act she said; Let me say from the outset I respect those who have different cultural interests to me. Those who genuinely want to learn and speak the Irish language are entitled to do so as part of the increasing diversity of our society. However there can be no escaping the fact that some …

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Straight comparisons with Wales are barmy. An NI Language Act under Assembly control would be nothing like

Perhaps Arlene Foster deserves a crumb of sympathy when Nelson McCausland makes claims like this about the cost of Sinn Fein’s version of an Irish Language Act. So, we are talking about an annual cost that can be estimated at around £100m a year. That is £2bn over the next 20 years. Shades of RHI Aaaghh!! But it’s nonsense to think that any such Language Act here would be as extensive or as expensive as the Welsh provision. The comparison …

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Jonathan Bell to stand as an independent in Strangford #ae17

Former DUP Minister, Jonathan Bell announced on Nolan this morning that he is standing as an independent in the Strangford constituency Bell received 3,393 first preferences in 2016 and was elected on the 3rd seat. David McCannDavid McCann holds a PhD in North-South relations from University of Ulster. You can follow him on twitter @dmcbfs