What if we re-run the Boundary Commission for 650 MPs, 18 in Northern Ireland?

Rumours started last week suggesting that the newly re-elected British government now plans to drop the current Boundary Commission proposals to cut the House of Commons to 600 MPs, and to start a new revision process which would keep the number of MPs at 650. It was always going to be a stretch to get 50 MPs to vote for their own abolition, so I am not at all surprised that this is where we will end up. Remember that …

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Boundary Commission – the detailed projections

So, the Boundary Commission’s report is finally out, as already discussed by Mick and commentators here. As ever I have done some number-crunching; details below but here are the headlines. At Westminster level, five currently DUP-held seats are squashed into four – East Londonderry is replaced by the new seat of Causeway; most of North Antrim becomes Mid Antrim; South Antrim is split several ways, and the new seat with that name actually has more of the old Lagan Valley …

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“Still, I think the name Londonderry should be kept on there somewhere.”

So the boundary commission’s proposals are going down badly with Unionists. Hardly surprising since as Nicholas Whyte notes, the changes are likely to have a negative impact on both UU seats in Fermanagh South Tyrone and South Antrim.  North West Belfast looks vulnerable for the DUP. In a reshuffle that in many ways harks after old county boundaries the one that most resembles old County Londonderry is to be given an odd name change, Glenshane, in the process abolishing Londonderry and making …

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Westminster Boundaries for Wales – best of a bad job?

Wales On-Line reveals the new Welsh Westminster boundaries, which cut the nation’s MPs from 40 to 30. Such a radical cut obviously requires some bold swipes on the map. Here’s a PDF of the new constituencies. The effect? – Currently the 40 MPS are split Labour 26, Tory 8, Lib Dem 3, Plaid 3. Taking the easiest first and extrapolating 2010 results (without assuming any change in voting patterns) Plaid’s two Gwynedd seats are merged into 1 in the North and …

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Boundary Review: Belfast SE, North Down and Strangford…

Okay, bit of a hiatus there, but now back at it… Ward data here… Demographics here… And this is the more general picture with old and new boundaries… These three have been chosen because they’re contiguous… they will have some political implications, but the kind of detail we’re looking for is the kind of ticks or mistakes that stand some chance of changing… One party losing too many seats is not a relevant concern here… Belfast South East The transfer of 7 wards from …

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