Slugger O'Toole

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Latest comments from Seymour Major (see all)

Seymour Major has commented 120 times (0 in the last month).

1. Comment on Sir Reg wouldn’t have a gay about the B&B either…
   on 8 April 2010 at 3:24 am

   I am not one bit interested in the reason why Adrian Watson did not get selected by the Joint Committee. I accept that the decision was unanimous and not the result of a veto by the Conservatives. I also accept there were other reasons for the non-selection. That should be that.

   Now onto the wider issue – homophobia. Firstly, a note about the Conservative Party and why open homophobia is likely to be a bar to selection.

   Historically, the Conservative Party has been regarded as the party of multiple bigotry. “The nasty party” was one of the euphamisms for a party which had a racist and homophobic wing. Enoch Powell epitomised Conservative racism with his speeches in the late 1960s. Although Margaret Thatcher was certainly not racist, she was attacked as being racist whenever she raised the issue of immigration. It took a long time to shake off the racist tag. Michael Howard, who was of Jewish descent and related to victims of the Holocaust, had the necessary credentials to satisfy people once and for all, that the conservatives were not a racist party.

   David Cameron has made giant strides in the direction of moving Conservative Party away from being regarded as homophobic. One of his speeches, acknowledging the importance of marriage included a reference to Civil Partnerships.

   The Conservative Party has not been a sectarian party in living memory. However, the Conservatives have taken a risk by allowing selection of the UCUNF candidates that are members of the Orange Order. You can be absolutely sure that the Labour Party will try to exploit that fact indirectly during the campaign. That is why any whiff of bigotry on any other front is totally unacceptable.

   I am particularly surprised by Chris Grayling’s comments. To me, that smacks of incompetence as a politician. I would be very surprised if he was appointed as Home Secretary in Mr. Cameron’s first cabinet.

   Homophobics are probably more numerous amongst Unionists. Liam Clarke once described “Vile Unionist Homophobia”

   http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/ireland/article666585.ece

   as the reason why the UK Government would not let the Assembly get in the way of the enactment of the Civil Partnerships Act in Northern Ireland. I cant speak for Sir Reg but if he is homophobic and wants to be a UCUNF candidate, he would be well advised to keep his mouth shut on the subject.

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2. Comment on Can David Cameron be sure he understands the intentions of the Ulster Unionists?
   on 15 March 2010 at 7:41 pm

   The question should really be the other way around. We have a general election approaching. Pursuant to an agreement between the UUP and the Conservatives, all of the NI Parliamentary Candidates from the UUP will be representing policies for National Government formulated by the Conservative Party.

   Perhaps you are trying to infer that the UUP are actually not interested in Northern Ireland having greater participation in National Politics. You have, after all, alluded to Enoch Powell’s era.

   The comparison of that era with today should be very wide of the mark. After all, the Conservatives and the UUP are signed up to a written memorandum of understanding. That is much better than a “post dated letter of guarantee” and for your information, it does cover the subject of tribal headcounting. I have pasted below, its pre-amble

   “1 Both parties believe that a strong and stable Union of the constituent parts of the United Kingdom offers the best future for all its citizens.

   2 Both parties believe that Northern Ireland has been isolated for too long from the politics of the United Kingdom.

   3 Both parties believe that all the citizens of the United Kingdom should have the opportunity to vote for, and potentially participate in, their national government.

   4 Both parties recognize the need to change politics in Northern Ireland, are committed to reaching out to the increasing numbers of alienated voters, and developing non sectarian politics in Northern Ireland.”

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3. Comment on Conservatives: Hatfield was about promoting political stability…
   on 15 March 2010 at 5:40 pm

   Being “threatened by the Conservative – UUP tie up”

   For all the banana skins that have got in the way of the UCUNF march, those who would like things here to carry on as they are know very well that there is unquestionably a very large proportion of the Northern Irish population who would like to see this region move on from where we are now.

   The UCUNF project may not be the path that most of these people would chose. What is is important (and this could yet still become a potent message) is that UCUNF do offer something new – a chance for Northern Ireland voters to vote for one of the parties that oould form the Government of their nation and the chance to vote for a party on the basis of shared values, as opposed to tribal politics.

   If that message, which is actually very short and very simple, gets through to the average voter in a slick campaign which concentrates on getting it acrss, there is still an outside chance of a game-changing result.

   I suggest this is probably the real reason why opponents of the UCUNF project are still feeling threatened by its existance.

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4. Comment on Conservatives: Hatfield was about promoting political stability…
   on 13 March 2010 at 9:16 pm

   On the points made about tribal politics, Sometimes the shortest, simplist, pieces of analysis are the best. Garza has summed it up so very well.

   “Once that distrust has gone, the radical elements will shrink”

   I agree completely with that comment. So also does Sinn Fein and the DUP. They do their utmost to annoy and crawl under the sking of voters from the other community. The DUP tells us that they are “smashing” Sinn Fein. Sinn Fein does not need to employ such heavy handed ‘dont trust me’ tactics. They will never be trusted because their leaders past association with the IRA. They are content that the majority of Unionists are incapable of comming to terms with that and moving on.

   The paradox is that they have to work together to keep power sharing alive. The result is political Schizophrenia and an executive which moves from crisis to crisis.

   It is hard to tell whether this sort of dysfunctional politics will eventually lead to loss of support. I think it might well do within the next 10 years but the Moderate parties should not bank on it. Their quickest and most likely route to electoral success is to show the NI electorate that they are the strongest on their “side.” If I may add, a party does not have to be extreme in order to be strong.

   It is hard to see the SDLP ever appearing “stronger” than Sinn Fein. Sinn Fein does have a slick party machine and fund-raising capability which the SDLP can never hope to match.

   On the Unionist side, it is the political skills and talents of their political leaders which make the running.

   As to UCUNF, it will not look strong to anybody in Northern Ireland whilst the leaders its component parties fail to sing from the same hymnsheet.

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5. Comment on Conservatives’ Orange card exposed as a joker
   on 10 March 2010 at 12:14 am

   As I write, the vote for P & J has been carried. That effectively renders the Clinton warning irrelevant. The question remaining alive is whether this opposition to P & J will damage the UUP and the Conservatives, do no harm or help the UUP. Before I answer that, there are a couple of points in your post which I reject.

   I am not a mind reader but I would suggest that UUP leaders may be thinking along the following lines. They could portray the DUP’s vote in favour of devolution of P & J a desperate ploy to buy them time when it was clear that if there was an assembly election tomorrow, they would be mauled as a result of ‘Irisgate.’

   My own view is that they have misread the political temperature. There is growing evidence that a majority of Unionists favour the transfer of P & J.

   In the short term, I do not think it will make any significant mathematical difference to UCUNF’s prospects in relation to the 18 Northern Ireland seats. If anything, the Gambit could slightly benefit them through tactical voting by TUV sympathisers but certainly not enough to bring about any political earthquake which would mortally wound the DUP.

   The UUP and the Conservatives, if they are to do longer-term electoral damage to the DUP, needed to find clear blue water to separate themselves from them on an ideological level. As a result of the UUP’s move, it will now be much harder from hereon to brand the DUP as the extreme Unionist Party.

   Following the General Election, the Conservative Party will want to take a very close look at the benefits of retaining the pact with the UUP balanced against advancing Conservativism without them. The UUP’s propensity to develop further as a party of Civic Unionism will form a large part of the weighing exercise. If it is concluded that the “Old Style” Unionists are likely to retain the upper hand for a very considerable time, then any renewal of the partnership is unlikely. The P & J decision gives credence to that contention.

   The UUP’s decision to oppose P & J devolution could turn out to be a catastrophic strategic mistake.

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6. Comment on Time for the DUP and UUP to think the unthinkable?
   on 8 March 2010 at 9:31 pm

   Turgon,

   It is totally wrong to assume that changes to the system will not come about without cross community support.

   A cross-community consensus on changing the system my be a lot nearer than many people think. Mark Durkan of the SDLP has already paid lip service to the idea of making changes
   http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/ireland/article4749287.ece

   Set that possibility against the prospect that smashing the power-sharing Constitution could destabilise NI back into mass terrrorism and your choice as to the correct way forward becomes a “no brainer”

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7. Comment on SWOTing the parties: The DUP…
   on 5 February 2010 at 5:26 am

   Very Interesting but I could not read all of it. Font was too small or blurred on some of it. Maybe my eyesight is going. I could not read “Dealing with Political parties”

   I am sorry I did not contribute to the data. There is perhaps one missing, which is a weakness and that is that there are certain flawed personality traits in their leader. Robinson’s cage is easily rattled. An example is how he reacted so badly to adverse press comment. He does not come across as a person who is charismatic. He scores very low on the “lovability” scale.

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8. Comment on David Trimble and the importance of Catholics
   on 2 February 2010 at 7:20 pm

   By co-incidence, I have just commented on Bobballs. David Trimble is absolutely on the button. His vision represents the Conservative vision.

   Hitherto, Trimble has kept to his own pledge not to openly criticise his old party. That he is coming out now is an indication of a very deep feeling that the UUP lack the vision needed to properly support the UCUNF project.

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9. Comment on “…republicans are in a rather worse position than the SDLP”
   on 29 January 2010 at 4:05 pm

   “Rather, they’ve consistently oversold it as being part of an inevitablist triumph”

   So what Montgomery is actually saying is that there is no real foundation to Sinn Fein’s support for Power Sharing. The only thing that matters is that they are their supporters’ champions. They are now in a spot, having lied to their supporters that the date for P & J was a done deal and the only way out of it is that they go back to square one by bringing down the Executive if they cant get their way in the current talks.

   If Montgomery is right in his analysis, then why aren’t the SDLP not now defending Hume’s legacy in order to put them under pressure?

   It seems to me that the SDLP have, in recent years, been trying to play “catch up republicanism” with Sinn Fein when instead of doing that, they should have bided their time and wait for the Shinners to dig a hole for themselves, as they have done now.

   Right now, the SDLP should be “all guns blazing” attacking the Shinners for their threats to bring down the Executive at a time when evidence is emerging that the majority of Northern Irish people from both communities want Power Sharing to be a success.

   That the SDLP is so ineffective is one reason why it is more likely than not that Sinn Fein is prepared to carry out its threat

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10. Comment on Don’t play the Orange card folks, it’s a joker
    on 26 January 2010 at 1:58 pm

    Brian,

    There is little doubt that the Conservatives discussed some “what ifs” at Hatfield House which touched upon the number of seats held by the Conservatives in Parliament. That can be read between the lines of the answer that David Cameron gave yesterday morning.

    There has been a lot of hysteria surrounding these talks. Much of it, I am afraid to say, has come from Northern Ireland Conservatives who are alarmed by the prospect of any talks with the DUP. They can not be blamed completely for that. The Conservative leadership is not providing the membership with enough detail or re-assurance as to what game they are playing.

    Thinking political followers need to be a bit calmer and a lot more circumspect for the time being. It is still a “mystery” until it becomes clear whether something has been agreed or has not. That said, sometimes the fear of the unknown can be more damaging than the reality.

    In a post on my own blog, I have invited Owen Paterson to go further than simply deny that there has been any sectarian agreement. He is asked to specifically deny that there has been no agreement of the kind listed in that post.

    The Conservative leadership now owes it to their members and to the Northern Ireland electorate to tell them what they are doing. If they do not do that very soon, the speculation will run out of control.

    I totally agree that the Orange Card is a joker

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