Slugger O'Toole

Conversation, politics and stray insights

Profile for RyanAdams

This user has not yet written a description

Latest comments from RyanAdams (see all)

RyanAdams has commented 334 times (2 in the last month).

  1. Comment on The 11 new district councils – projecting the 2011 votes
    on 8 April 2014 at 8:28 pm

    Nicholas,

    I think support for SF is very much concentrated in the area of Lisburn going into the Belfast. This boundary is very similar to the one that is used for Westminster/Assembly elections and removed the SF seat altogether in Lagan Valley when it was amended. If I read correctly you had overcast SF on boundaries before here (albeit, with a slightly different context this time)

    http://www.ark.ac.uk/elections/alv.htm

    Go to comment

  2. Comment on NI21 announce their Euro Candidate @NI21Chair Tina McKenzie
    on 8 April 2014 at 8:15 pm

    I think people are being over expectant of NI21 on their first outing. Everyone from DUP to Alliance members should know a political party does not grow overnight. It takes cycles.

    Gopher is exactly on the mark. North Down is an electorate which refuses to conform to the norm of NI politics. I believe there are many floating voters out there to be claimed, especially after the flags/parades debacle. The conduct of the DUP was totally unacceptable of a government party and there are DUP votes from 2011 now looking for a new home.

    Go to comment

  3. Comment on GAA: “We’ve tried now for the last 16 months to build a level of consensus around the stadium project…”
    on 19 November 2013 at 9:04 pm

    Mick,

    Would rather fore-go a few world cup games in Ravenhill than have a 30,000 seater with a 10,000 crowd in it on a wet Friday night in January – Torrents of empty seats destroy the atmosphere!

    That said it is a decade away, and current re-developments were done in mind of being able to extend capacity from the imminently anticipated 18k up to 28k through developing the corners – I’m a realist but it’s something I’d love to see, Long may the growth of Ulster Rugby continue!

    Go to comment

  4. Comment on NI21 inaugural conference launches some policies & starts the job of converting supporters to votes
    on 18 November 2013 at 9:23 pm

    “From the UUP benches– the impression I get is almost everyone is glad to be rid of Basil, disappointed in John, but in general feel they were a much bigger threat within the party than they now pose as NI21. No-one I know takes the threat seriously, and treat them as a side show, it is only in Lagan Valley & South Down that any political attacks on them have been made.

    Many who worked with Basil previously are waiting for an eneviable crash and burn, whether he brings the whole thing down with him is the question.”

    No need to be smug DR – The UUP won’t have a plurality of ‘benches’ come the next assembly election, or even a seat in Belfast.

    Go to comment

  5. Comment on Diane Dodds gets the DUP’s nomination for Europe…
    on 9 November 2013 at 5:18 pm

    I think this European election will have a very different feel to it if locals are running the same day. Euros typically have an abysmal turnout, with the highest figures being amongst rural constituencies – rural constituencies typically turnout better in any election, but it seems to be more pronounced in Europe, probably down to the issues Europe has governance over. I expect that to help out Alliance, NI21, Greens and the SDLP at the expense of DUP, SF and UUP.

    Go to comment

  6. Comment on Voting intentions survey – 44.1% wouldn’t vote (3:2 women:men) + the party split of those who would vote
    on 20 September 2013 at 12:16 am

    mjh,

    I believe John can get more than half of the 2011 UUP vote. He organically grew it in % against tough boundary decisions that saw most write his off in 2011.

    Departing from the UUP certainly won’t make him any more transfer repellent in an SDLP dominated constituency.

    SDLP/unionist Turnout would really need to dip in South Down for a third seat to become viable for SF. Their ticket is just too weak. Ruane is established in Warrenpoint, but Hazard has the task of consolidating the middle, and the North end of the constituency is always slim pickings for SF. Potentially slimmer after the Coogan affair, and that was a very public fall out. I think it’s fair to say there is too much internal politics at play inside the activist structures in South Down. http://sluggerotoole.com/2012/11/13/south-down-sf-councillor-leaves-the-party/

    Go to comment

  7. Comment on Voting intentions survey – 44.1% wouldn’t vote (3:2 women:men) + the party split of those who would vote
    on 18 September 2013 at 10:57 pm

    I wouldn’t be writing John McCallister off in South Down just yet.

    He certainly has a loud enough profile in comparison with the other incumbents of the seat (Catriona, where art thou?). He’ll be up against two co-optees on the nationalist side, and Margaret Richie won’t be around this time to pull in a huge personal vote to get them anywhere near a third seat.

    As for SF, their South Down problems don’t look like ending anytime soon. The fall out of the Micky Coogan affair may harm them in the Ballynahinch/Drumaness area that is still within South Down, and consolidating the weak north part of the constituency was key to them aiming for the third seat.

    My feeling is John is well enough established here now and the nationalist ticket weak enough to ensure there is no change.

    Go to comment

  8. Comment on Can Caroline McNeill capture S. Belfast?
    on 5 September 2013 at 11:29 pm

    Tir Chonaill Gael,

    The DUP already have eyes on the UUP seat and South Belfast is at 2.65 unionist quotas. That would require a huge collapse on the unionist side to give that result. Given how unsettled many loyalist areas are, I can’t see turnout dropping to facilitate that happening. If anything, splinter loyalist candidates will only bring more of them out inflating the vote. South Belfast will be 2 Nationalist, 2 Unionist, 1 Alliance and 1 tight seat for the foreseeable future.

    Go to comment

  9. Comment on Can Caroline McNeill capture S. Belfast?
    on 5 September 2013 at 11:22 pm

    Charles,

    It is hardly outrageous. There was nothing going on between 2003 and 2007 only barred negotiations between DUP and SF.

    It is a bit early to call on NI21, but lets be realistic, in terms of target seats – Do you think NI21 will resonate better up the Lendaoon or up the Malone Road?

    Right on economics. Seem all about the business and private sector. Left on social policy – bar Academic selection. They seem to be in favor of that.

    Go to comment

  10. Comment on Can Caroline McNeill capture S. Belfast?
    on 5 September 2013 at 10:59 pm

    “People really need to catch a grip – NI21 will take a seat in South Belfast, seriously? They have no operational set-up there whatsoever. And they’d need an outstanding candidate to stand a minimal chance: who’s that going to be? ”

    There is talk of Assembly elections being deferred to 2016. That allows for a European, Council and Westminster election beforehand – allowing for benchmarking and candidates to settle. Lets not forget Alliance virtually took a seat here overnight in 2007. They almost lost the deposit in 2003, and the large liberal contingent vote here is quite volatile, much alike that in North Down.

    “And I doubt if Anna Lo’s doggedly pro-abortion stance will go down quite so well among the Catholic middle-class in the area”

    Well … ugh that’s the genius of a second candidate isn’t it … To be honest I didn’t even know Anna Lo was pro choice. Any how … middle class catholics do not equal conservative catholics and you would do well to remember the difference.

    Go to comment

Copyright © 2003 - 2014 Slugger O'Toole Ltd. All rights reserved.
Powered by WordPress; produced by Puffbox.
44 queries. 2.715 seconds.