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Books
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A poem for the day – Launching the Whaler Juan Peron
A Belfast epic, and one of my oldest poems, the opener of my first collection, Grub. The gist of the story was found in Moss & Hume’s Shipbuilders to the World: 125 Years of Harland and Wolff, Belfast, 1861-1986, which tells how Eva Peron was due to launch a huge whaling vessel in Belfast, built [...] read our review » -
Do Words Matter?: Book Review of Political Discourse and Conflict Resolution – Debating Peace in Northern Ireland
I share many of the concerns of Andy Pollak, whose recent post ‘My Response to the Slugger Begrudgers’ zeroed in on the ‘relentless flow of negativity’ of some Slugger commentators. Pollak’s post was largely concerned with the medium of the blog. Indeed, I think the anonymity of the online world encourages extreme discourse and allows [...] read our review »
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“You can see Newton’s mind at work…”
To add to the open access treasure trove at the Royal Society, Cambridge University Library is putting online some of its collection of books, maps, manuscripts and journals. We have called the first phase of our work on the Cambridge Digital Library the Foundations Project, which runs from mid-2010 to mid-2013 and has been made possible [...] read our review »
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Comment on Most likely big fallers: TDs on Saturday, MLAs in May?
on 1 March 2011 at 12:01 am
My predictions for Assembly 2011
Belfast
East – DUP 3 looks very vunerable to alliance, but real casualty here could be Purvis as her and PUP are fighting each other for just under 3000 votes from 2007, and DUP have also selected a candidate who will probably steal away from those votes too in Sammy Douglas
North – Expect UUP to be eclipsed by DUP, but with no big hitter in Dodds on the paper, more unlikely. SF could probably get a third seat here based on 2010 figures, although will be testing them to the limit.
South – Better DUP balancing will probably knock out SDLP 2 or Maskey. Probably Maskey as he rarely barely attracts 100+ transfers throughout the whole count.
West – Probably no change, but SF set themselves a high bench mark here in 2007 and with no Adams on the ticket they have a fight on their hands to keep seat number five.
East Antrim – DUP playing with fire with four candidates, although worth a shot as the UUP have no chance whatsoever of holding there second seat with the entriely nationalist glens being moved into the constituency. They will probably lose to either SDLP or DUP.
South Antrim – SDLP expected to loose a seat to either DUP 3 or UUP 2 as a result of new boundaries, although it will be SF who will feel the biggest dent in their vote as territory has been lost to North Belfast.
North Antrim – TUV/DUP 4 take SDLP seat for certain.
Lagan Valley – SF lose to either DUP 4/ TUV / UUP 2 … Going from most to least likely
South Down – Second Unionist seat looking vunerable to SDLP, If Ruane is first shinner home and dry i would be shocked
Strangford – Alliance weakened, SDLP strengthened marginally enough to probably make a difference. UUP could take from DUP although unlikely as Irisgate is blown over
North Down – Everyone knows theres no use analysing this constituency as it always bucks the trend and will probably continue to do so for years to come …
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Comment on DUP announce Assembly candidates, including a new face in East Belfast and two double-jobbers
on 28 February 2011 at 11:26 pm
In May2010, talliers for both DUP and Alliance reported Long (alliance) was in some boxes outpolling Robinson 2:1 in some working class areas, So the motive for Douglas is clear – take back the working class votes, and stop alliance taking a seat away from them.
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