Slugger O'Toole

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Pickled Badger has commented 7 times (0 in the last month).

1. Comment on Belfast Telegraph poll: read with large pinch of salt
   on 4 May 2010 at 6:31 pm

   I would not dismiss the poll are garbage it was a masterpiece, accurate no, but it got the messages across that it wanted to. All polls must be taken with a pince of salt, especially those done by party activists, in this case a DUP man. Add this to the fact that the telegraph is owned by the former owner of that bastion of ant-Toryism the Independent then this result from this poll is hardly surprising. I do take my hat off though to however made it up.
   In East Belfast it portrays an almost evenly divided anti-Robbo vote to minimise the chance that voters would swing behind Ringland there. In North Antrim and South Antrim it deters tactical voting by the scale of the margins between the DUP and its chief rivals. The piece de resistance though is Upper Bann. Portaying what is in actuality a DUP-UCUNF marginal as a DUP-Sinn Fein marginal is an inspired move to rally votes behind Simpson and full credit should go to the author.

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2. Comment on On that Newsletter “Slugger O’Toole” poll…
   on 4 May 2010 at 2:22 am

   I think you underestimate the difficulties facing the DUP in South Belfast. Alasdair McDonnell is far from hated amongst a lot of moderate unionist voters. People might prefer a unionist but there isn’t much motivation to vote him out on a personal level, nor any great regard for Jimmy Spratt. Spratt isn’t loathed but he isn’t a vote winner either.

   Secondly after Iris and policing and justice the DUP have offended a vast swath of their core support, some of whom could go to UCUNF, some of which will undoubtedly just stay at home.

   Add these factors to Maskey’s withdrawal and the numbers just aren’t there for the DUP in my opinion.

   If the DUP overall get 24% they should be delighted as they could fare far, far worse given the European elections. Alliance though I still can’t see winning East Belfast. My money would still be on Robbo, Ringland second, Long third.

   The nationalist side of the poll is far more interesting. I can see the SDLP vote up in South Belfast (Maskey and a personal vote), West Tyrone (Deeney’s vote) and South Down (Caitriona Ruane). Elsewhere it is doubtful to see where they will be anything but squeezed, especially FST.

   I’d be very curious if any SDLP backers here think this poll is inaccurate and if so where they think the tide could be turning in their favour.

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3. Comment on Cameron caught in unionist bind
   on 4 May 2010 at 1:45 am

   The problem is Sammy is that you overestimate what Robbo can offer for the costs that Cameron would entail. A govt that needs the DUP would resemble the dying days of the Major administration – weak, ineffectual and short-lived. Even if the DUP were consistently loyal any small group of rebels could thwart such a government. No hard decisions could be made and either the Tories would have to pull the plug and go back to the country or they would eventually lose a vote of no confidence.

   The tax rises and spending cuts that we all know are coming have yet to occur. It is easy to give a few bob to Ulster if you have the money. If you don’t and people across the UK are struggling they will ask why they are suffering and we aren’t. There is already anger that Scotland is milking the system regarding tuition fees and elderly care. When economic conditions start to bite expect such resentment in England to get far worse.

   At the bottom line the votes the DUP can offer are not enough. 30 MPs could give significant bargaining power in the rare occasion of a close election as it could change a weak govt into a stable one. 9 votes just aren’t enough to do that. Hence deals with the DUP on anything other than odd issues would be unlikely, especially as the DUP are to the Tories, unlike Labour, an electoral rival.

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4. Comment on Cameron caught in unionist bind
   on 3 May 2010 at 6:59 pm

   I agree with Cynic. A short-term deal with the DUP at the expense of Sir Reg would be worthless to the Conservatives. A minority administration would be preferable. The DUP even in the best circumstances will only have 9 MPs (they are not taking South Belfast) and probably will have 7 or 8 or less. If the parliamentary arithmetic is that close the Tories will either already be the minority government as a Lib/Lab/SNP/PC/SDLP union just isn’t feasible or the DUP votes wouldn’t be enough to secure a majority in any case.

   The DUP agenda of getting the English to bear NI’s share of the spending restraints to come in addition to the current cost they pay for propping this place up would be one that would be impossible to sell on the mainland. Labour and the Lib-Dems would tear him apart for agreeing to it. Given that any parliament in which the DUP would matter at all will be too unstable to last long in any event the price would be too great to pay. For unionism it would be a disaster as well as it would further undermine support for the union in England but that is another argument.

   In a related point the DUP are also seen as reactionary extremists by many on the mainland who find them ‘unBritish’, Ian Paisley Senior being the primary example of this. In the DUP’s defence it has been opinion in Britain that has moved rather than here on many social issues that has led to this but it is a reality and one, if the DUP are serious about being a unionist party, that they need to address as soon as possible. Given that many people think in this way there would be a political cost to Cameron for doing a deal with the DUP above and beyond the financial issue.

   Finally doing so would have a lot of the Conservative Party over here resigning as they would see the sectarianism of the DUP as being one of the chief things their party here has to fight against if politics is ever to get beyond tribal head counts. That would not be as important perhaps as opinion in England but it still would be an embarrassment and undermine a lot of the effort which David Cameron and Owen Patterson have put in for a very questionable gain.

   If the DUP bring down a Tory government at the election that followed they will either get an at best neutral if not pro-nationalist Lib-Lab govt rather than a pro-union one, followed by the AV system or proper PR, either of which would weaken them dramatically at Westminster or a vengeful Tory govt with a working majority. If either event once a stable govt is in place the DUP will be irrelevant again. The question really is in the off chance that the DUP matter in London and they can’t get what they want re the block grant what they would do.

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5. Comment on Iain Dale denies Cameron made a gaffe
   on 25 April 2010 at 7:11 am

   John I am afraid that balancing the books does matter. At present NI is a drain on the rest of the UK economy and a burden that the rest of the country is unlikely to put up with indefinitely while the Republic simply couldn’t cope with sustaining NI at present even if things were rosier over the border.

   Public sector jobs here and anywhere else have to be paid for by private sector taxes. A NI which remains dependent on the public sector will never be beneficial to whichever country owns it.

   Your assumption moreover that NI could be as you propose the ‘UK civil service back office’ is just not practical for various reasons. The Irish Sea alone makes here a poor destination for services that all people on the mainland would need to access. The political instability and demographic changes that threaten NI’s long term position in the UK make the prospect of moving major offices risky while most of the departments would no doubt prefer to stay in London near the centre of power. Frankly though the greatest reason is could never happen is that there is not a snowball’s chance in hell that the English, Scots and Welsh would agree to see their jobs coming here for nothing in return but the privilege of bankrolling a province that could not support itself just because it no aspirations to the contrary.

   At present the whole economy is struggling , we have a massive deficit and government borrowing is increasing. Public sector spending across the UK is going to be cut after this election, no matter who gets in. Whether it will come immediately, next year or when the country goes bankrupt and has to go to the IMF like Greece is really just a matter of timing. Public sector spending will have to be cut as the country just cannot sustain the current level. If you don’t believe me just dig out Alistair Darling’s talk of cuts far deeper than Maggie’s.

   Even if the UK economy wasn’t in a dire state though we still would need to increase the size of our private sector and we need to stop deluding ourselves that the current state of affairs can continue.

   Already in England there are (perfectly correct) rumblings that England is getting a raw deal out of the Union. An English Democrat was elected mayor in one town (and if PR gets introduced they will likely get representation in Parliament). The West Lothian question has yet to be answered and it could be exacerbated if Labour cling to power through Scottish MPs. The calls have yet to be a cacophony yet and thankfully NI funding is still somewhat off the radar. If prosperity drops in the south of England though politicians are likely to come under pressure as to question why they are giving so much money away to the north of England and especially to Scotland and us and if they do our politicians need to be able to answer them with something better than demanding that the NI block grant remains untouched for ‘peace dividends’ or other such nonsense.

   David Cameron’s plan of rebalancing the economy may be unpalatable for some and cause anxiety in certain quarters but the stark truth is that it is necessary for NI’s future, no matter where it lies.

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6. Comment on Iain Dale denies Cameron made a gaffe
   on 24 April 2010 at 11:22 am

   On any unbiased and level-headed reading of the situation what David Cameron said was perfectly reasonable. Northern Ireland is far too dependent on the public sector and I am saying this as a public sector worker. He certainly had a far clearer economic plan for Northern Ireland than others who just want to keep extending the begging bowl to England.

   DC Cameron said “the aim has got to be to get the private sector, get the commercial sector going” and that there needed to be a “faster growing private sector” and a “rebalancing of the economy” so I strongly disagree with you that he talked about ‘nothing other than crude cuts’ although obviously there will be those who will spin the story as such.

   As it is it is only the fact that English taxpayers are willing to prop up our economy that keeps many of us in employment as the taxes the private sector contributes from here would be grossly inadequate to maintain current public sector expenditure. We have to move people from the unproductive to the productive side of the economy for this place to have a viable future and that doesn’t matter if it is as part of the UK, an independent state or a united Ireland.

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7. Comment on Snubbed During Labour’s Promises…
   on 16 April 2010 at 5:12 am

   I can’t agree with you pippakin. Most people in the Republic I’ve spoken to see Northern Ireland as being somewhere quite different and certainly not somewhere they would be willing to pay for.

   There is a substantial question mark if the Republic would ever be able to pay the cost needed to keep Northern Ireland in any kind of prosperity let alone handle the trouble that going from a homogenous culture to one where 20% of people wanted to belong to a different state would entail.

   Unless NI regains decent economic viability (unlikely in the short term) or the Republic could convince Britain to pick up the tab (inconceivable) a united Ireland just isn’t going to happen anytime soon. Still it would be fun watching southern politicians’ reactions if the north ever looks likely to vote for unity.

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