Slugger O'Toole

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JD has commented 50 times (0 in the last month).

1. Comment on “…republicans are in a rather worse position than the SDLP”
   on 30 January 2010 at 6:06 am

   “Nationalists might not get all six counties under Dublin rule but they’ll cut NI into pieces by the end so the Unionists will look like blatant sectarian freaks in a 2 county corner of Ireland, too enmeshed in ancient bigotry to govern the island with the rest of the people who live here. ”

   I think that was the danger that the RPA’s initial seven council model would be dusted off again in a renewed period of direct rule as an alternative to devolution. The model has three exclusively nationalist councils, three unionist ones and then Belfast.

   What Sinn fein has to ask themselves is – was it all for three big nationalist councils north of the border?

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2. Comment on “…republicans are in a rather worse position than the SDLP”
   on 30 January 2010 at 4:32 am

   “This is not what Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness presided over 30 years of terrorism to achieve. It is what Hume told them 30 years ago they’d end up settling for. And it leaves the republican leadership with a near-unanswerable problem in terms of managing its base”.

   There is a truth in that. However it is Sinn Fein’s similarity to the SDLP in the feeling they are owed and own their present support that will be their undoing.

   After the GFA the SDLP fell back on telling the voters how they were always “the good guys” and that they were “right all along”. They could not cope with Sinn Fein dropping abstentionism, talking to Unionists and embracing power sharing. In an effort to differentiate themselves the SDLP pointed backwards pointing to how they were different in the past.

   The Sinn Fein leadership did mislead their grassroots as to what was possible. They based their fundamental change of tactics from war to politics on the idea of a United Ireland being just around the corner. Also uniquely unlike their main opponents in the SDLP, Fianna Fail and Irish Labour they were an all Ireland Party and would “eventually be in government in Leinster House and Stormont simultaneously”. This was the basis of the idea that in practice a United Ireland was imminent.

   When the final act of decommissioning came it was met largely with indifference in the South, there was no groundswell of grateful closet Sinn Fein voters. The full time volunteer infrastructure vanished and party message became erratic and contradictory.

   In 2006 when the St Andrew’s agreement was signed Sinn Fein became a party of government in the North and set about making itself a party of government in the South angling to become Fianna Fail’s partner in Dublin even thought it cut against the grain of their hard won new support built on being a party of protest.

   In 2007 that illusion was shattered at the Dail election the new strategy was an alliance of the Left. Labour was happy to cut a deal to win two extra seats in the Senate but since then Sinn Fein in broad policy terms has been following in Labour’s wake, with Labour ignoring calls for an alliance.

   In 2009 a revealing interview on Vincent Browne’s election results programme on TV3, Browne asked Mary Lou to outline the policy differences between Sinn Fein and Labour (with the exception of the priority of Irish Unity). Mary Lou stared blankly at the camera and grinned – the over promoted party Vice President was at sea and at present that is where Sinn Fein is in the South

   In 2010 Sinn Fein need to defend their success in the North. If the Euro election were replicated they would be the largest party of government. How they retain that while keeping the credibility of their all Ireland aspirations becomes ever more difficult.

   At present with the exception of the emphasis on Irish Unity why should not someone join the larger Labour Party in the South?

   If they transplant their catch all nature to the South, with the exception of the emphasis on Irish Unity why should not someone join the larger Fianna Fail in the South?

   Full devolution (whether now, or after an early election or in a year’s time) will bring “the process” to an end. The monotony of agreed governance will sap Sinn Fein’s inner dynamic in the same way as not being able to stand out as the “good Catholics” sapped the SDLPs inner dynamic. Despite Sinn Fein’s outward success in the six counties they are very close to that point.

   Ten years of failure has brought the SDLP ever closer to breaking up or re-aligning. When that day does come Fianna Fail and Labour will become all Ireland parties of some form seeking election on both sides of the border. Sinn Fein’s unique selling point then will be that it abstains from Westminster and was the war party from 1970-94. Sinn Fein’s superior organisation in the six counties will sustain them as will the section of the electorate that will stand by them for being war party from 1970-94 – nobody else can challenge them for that constituency.

   If Sinn Fein eventually fall back on differentiating themselves as having been the war party from 1970-94 they’ve made the same mistake as the SDLP did the past ten years, looking backwards pointing to what they were not to where they want to lead us.

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3. Comment on New political party due in South
   on 30 January 2010 at 4:00 am

   “The good news is the electorate is changing and the conversation is also changing from the treaty to how to run the country. After 90 years you might say not before time. The rabid, frothing at the mouth civil war dopes have at least stopped reproducing and while they’ll be with us a while yet, the conversation is moving to the economy, services and that.”

   I think on balance the power the “Civil War politics” broke about 20 years ago – when Robinson became President. However the power of “Parish pump politics” remains as strong as ever.

   The PR-STV electoral system incentivises electors to play there various local TDs in a competition to be seen as “hardest working on the ground”. The voters don’t give a damn about TDs who do legislative work. They want ones that spend every moment of the day, 7 days a week all year around holding their hand or at least being available to do so.

   Having TDs that are not connected to specific geographic constituencies would make for better decision making and more long-term policy formulation would not be considered as risky. The list system has its draw backs, but it does force the voter to vote for a block of ideas, rather than the bloke who lives around the block.

   The disproportionate amount of parish pump TDs undoubtly played a huge role in the failure of the political system in the bubble years. Civil war politics is dead, but I don’t believe voters can see the wrong of their TDs having to spend far too much time devoted to constituency matters.

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4. Comment on New political party due in South
   on 29 January 2010 at 5:12 am

   “I would like to see a more conventional two party system. Centre right vs Centre left. I also hope to see strong local government, getting the parish pump stuff dealt with on the councils instead of dominating the Dáil as it does currently. ”

   Unfortunately you would need a different electorate. they persist in electing county councillors to the national legislature. The Dual mandate is abolished the best part of a decade and the voters still won’t break their habits.

   A new electoral system without multi-seat constituencies and a large list element to the system would be essential. If FG & Labour have sense they should propose to change the electoral system in tandem with abolishing the senate. It is the only way to fool the voters into scrapping their parish pump TD.

   The present electoral system has served Fianna Fail particualrly well – they excel at it. Ideological parties have foundered on it and the legislature is the poorer for it. FG & Labour might well find a continental electoral system more congenial that might allow better alternation of governments and facilitate a more national policy debate rather than 40 odd individual local contests.

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5. Comment on New political party due in South
   on 28 January 2010 at 7:41 am

   “Anyway, who cares? This party may appear or it may sink without trace like the Liberals and Amhrán Nua. However, I am interested in whether anyone thinks there is room for such an outfit. ”

   The only reason the PDs lasted as long as they did was the former Fianna Fail reps they inherited from 1985 when they were established. They were good at constituency work, clientelism etc. Not surprisingly they folded when these reps came near retirement.

   The genuine ideologues in the PDs were hopeless at constituency work and after the initial surge in 1987, the party bumped along at 4% perilously close to the margin of error.

   In 1985/6 social liberalism was about to finally burst out on the political scene in the South. In 2010 much of 1980s “liberal agenda” is mainstream. Just look at the civil partnership debate in the Dail this week.

   When the PDs folded Fianna Fail joined the European Liberal party (alongside the Alliance & Lib Dems). If the pressures of the economic crisis do cause pieces to drop off FF & FG in the coming years, it won’t be social liberalism any new economic liberal party will be championing, it will be populist anti-immigrant poltics like a far right party in Netherlands or Scandinavia.

   As regards north of the border, the main development in the “Liberal” camp will be a re-aligned and re-named SDLP joining Fianna Fail in alliance in the European liberals. Expect a joint pro Europe Euroliberal candidate from FF/SDLP in 2014.

   There is a potential economic liberal v statist divie that might emerge in NI. Fianna Fail & Tories v a few Labourites, Shinners and Loyalists. The opposition to the public sector might well become a a rallying point for middle class economic liberls on both sides of the communal divide in the North.

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6. Comment on “I am not a Tory and I shall not be taking the Tory whip.”
   on 27 January 2010 at 4:56 am

   “Sylvia Hermon should get on with joining Brown’s Labour Party and stand as their candidate in the election. This is the inevitable outcome, so she might as well do it now. ”

   If you are going to develop Labour in Northern Ireland North Down is not the place to start – it’s like a Tory V Liberal constituency in the South of England. Sylvia might well be New Labour but she is not going to attach the “New Labour” tag that might well push away nice middle class voters looking for a change of government. “Independent” is much easier allowing her to cast her net as wide as possible.

   Northern Ireland is not going to turn Tory, Liberal, Labour, but elements of “Governmental” or “National” politics are emerging

   1) LIBERAL
   Some of you might be thinking a Lib Dem/Alliance merger. Consider the words of Brian Lenihan TD the Fianna Fail Minister for Finance when replying to Labour’s charge in the Dail that he was a Celtic Tory saying “Our allies in the United Kingdom are the Liberal Party. That is where our allegiance lies in the UK. They have a great record in relation to this country.”

   The new SDLP Deputy Leader Patsy McGlone is only on record in the last 18 months saying:

   ‘‘On a personal level, it is a widely-held view of many of us in the SDLP that the natural alliance is with Fianna Fáil. Quite clearly, Fianna Fáil is representative of the same body, socially and economically as ourselves”.

   Patsy is Alasdair McDonnell’s key backer in the SDLP parliamentary party. Expect the SDLP to get a name change and become Fianna Fail’s sister party when Big Al becomes leader – they want to team up for the 2014 Euro election to win an MEP seat and get a bit of help in any future local elections. Alliance can muddle on as they are, but it won’t just be the Tories cramping their style.

   2) LABOUR
   The two Labour Parties (Irish & British) are deeply reluctant entrants on the NI political scene. Both now have membership forums here. British Labour due to a court case taken against them, Irish Labour due to the Northern Ireland members of Democratic Left they inherited when they merged in 1999. Both still hide behind the SDLP “sister party excuse” to keep NI at arms length.

   The SDLP “sister party excuse” will most likely be stripped away from the two Labour Parties very soon. Neither has any enthusiasm for the NI political scene. For the ex Workers Party lead Irish Labour Party Nationalism is an anathema and if the get SDLP defectors they’ll look to link their own organisation to the British Labour Party. For the British Labour Party they traditionally considered Ireland a matter for the Irish Labour Party and later the SDLP. With no SDLP they’ll happily do a deal with Irish Labour. Both would be happy to jointly sponsor a Labour organisation ploughing the narrow furrow that is the centre-left of the “United Community” section of the electorate.

   3) CONSERVATIVE
   There’s no shortage of Conservatives in Northern Ireland – Orange & Green. The only question is how many parties do they need?

   The DUP & UUP need to form a bigger party than Sinn Fein in Stormont – so that will allow for some rationalisation of conservative parties.

   Fianna Fail although nominally in the Liberal camp has received much admiration from the Tory right with Brian Lenihan’s “tough” budgets. A realigned SDLP tied Fianna Fail would make a happy partner for a new Conservative & Unionist Party in Stormont.

   4)THE REST
   The question for Sinn Fein is – do will sit with a future Fianna Fail/Tory Executive in Stormont or on the opposition benches with United Community Labour, Alliance and Green MLAs? Either way it is a far cry from 2016 and a United Ireland.

   I didn’t forget about the TUV, but I thought it would be harsh on the Conservatives to include those nut jobs in the mix.

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7. Comment on Arthur Morgan Watch: Day 21…
   on 14 January 2010 at 4:04 am

   Fair play Mick – keep it up!

   Whatever about Arthur Morgan being unable to provide the media with an explanation, I have no doubt his rivals in FF & FG in Louth will be running a ruthless whsipering campaign against him. In addition to this I am sure there are quite a few Sinn Fein activists in Louth that are sickened by what they have discovered about their former comhairle ceantair chair and the fact the party leader kept it secret from them.

   With a much reduced election team and a no holes barred whispering campaign by his opponents I expect that deputy Morgan’s political carer will not last past the next election.

   Still we need an explanation from Arthur now – keep asking.

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8. Comment on Sinn Fein were part of the choreography – the pace quickens
   on 12 January 2010 at 5:45 am

   “the smart move for Sinn Fein in such a scenario would be to push for the redesignation of the Office as being ‘run’ by two Joint First Ministers, which has the benefit of accurately depicting their joint status and removing yet another potential point of crisis.”

   It is symbolic and only a name, however making that “sacrifice” Sinn Fein can negotiate something in return.

   It should be joint first ministers anyway – that will probably be the solution when the time comes

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9. Comment on Killian Forde and the Moguls of Irish politics
   on 12 January 2010 at 4:49 am

   ” if Labour & FF organise in the North, we in the North be unique in the world as having two sets of national politics bring played out in the same territory. Interesting for psephologists etc but to which jurisdiction do they give allegiance to if a conflict between the jurisdictions clash?”

   In practice I doubt it would work like that. Sinn Fein has/had a tendancy to try pretend the border isn’t there in how they’re organised. The shortcoming of this was exposed in how Gerry Adams screwed up in the Dail election when his lack of knowledge of the South undermined the SF campaign.

   Stickie lead Irish Labour is most likely to link with British Labour and the Dublin leadership taking a very hands off approach. I imagine there would be a Belfast leadership plugged into UK debates about public services and tax and spend – don’t expect Eamon Gilmore to be knocking around the six counties much

   Fianna Fail worked with the SDLP for years. It is hard to see how a Northern FF would not be the SDLP with a name change still doing its own thing, but under the banner of DeV’s party. I suspect that Fianna Fail and the Tories would be very congenial bedfellows with Fianna Fail’s private health care and “tough” budgets being the envy of the Tory right.

   On another thread it was pointed out that Alisdair McDonnell in not committed to the SDLP’s link to the Party of European Socialists and might join the European Liberals with Fianna Fail and the Alliance Party.

   Alasdair has already been hawking around the idea of a “centrist” SDLP-AP-UUP alliance. In practice this might well be Fianna Fail-AP-Tory alliance (Tories and Lib Dems?).

   Sinn Fein, DUP & TUV still exist outside this orbit, but the main parties of government in London and Dublin might well be very pragmatic on policy and coalition in a way the existing Belfast centred parties are not.

   However maybe the “centre” will muddle on as they are? We seem to prefare deadlock.

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10. Comment on Peter survives and pledges to try to deliver J&P by year end
    on 12 January 2010 at 4:30 am

    ”
    The fundamental problem – that SF need devolution of P&J and that DUP can’t deliver it this side of an Assembly election hasn’t gone away and if anything has got worse.

    I’m still betting on joint Assembly / Westminster elections”.

    They both need to show their voters that “they stood up to the other side”. Like all the main parties they’ll prefare joint Assembly / Westminster elections as the cost of two separate campaigns will cripple their respective finances.

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