Slugger O'Toole

Latest comments from Brian A Wilson (see all)

Brian A Wilson has commented 16 times (0 in the last month).

1. Comment on Labour NI’s AGM and afternoon discussion around education and the economy
   on 15 March 2012 at 11:52 pm

   I have waited over 40 years since the demise of the NILP to see a credible Labour party in Northern Ireland
   Although I wish the new party all the best I share thedissenters concern it will remain little more than a focus group unless it can nominate candidates for councils/Assembly.

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2. Comment on Labour NI’s AGM and afternoon discussion around education and the economy
   on 13 March 2012 at 2:06 pm

   Very interesting review of Labour NI AGM
   It covered a large number of policy areas with which I largely agreed but I was disappointed that there was no discussion of environmental issues
   As one of the MLAs involved in setting up the Assembly all party committee on Cooperatives I was particularly interested in Erskine Holmes’ comments on the role cooperatives could play in economic growth.
   It is hard to believe that it is 46 years since I canvassed for Erskine in South Belfast when we polled over 12000 votes.

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3. Comment on Florida – All Over?
   on 1 February 2012 at 3:45 am

   IT looks like it but im not sure.
   Its clear that a majority of Republicans do not want Romney.
   This could result particularly given the methods of electing delegates that Romney will not obtain 50% of the delegates and the Convention could select a totally new candidate such as Jed Bush.
   While this is unlikely it is clear that the present candidates are extremely weak and have little chance of defeating Obama unless the World economy collapses.

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4. Comment on New Tories, old Tories, what’s the difference?
   on 1 February 2012 at 2:54 am

   I welcome the fact that the Tories have now decided to seriously engage in NI politics.However I doubt if their right wing policies will have significant support among the people of NI.
   I speak as the Leader of the Alliance group on North Down Council in 1989 when we lost 3 seats and the Conservatives won 6 becoming the largest party on the council.
   They were a serious political force at that time and in the 1992 Westminster elections they polled over 44,000 with the party leader Laurence Kennedy polling over14000 in North Down.
   We decided to attack the Tories not on their Unionist/sectarian policies but on their Thatcherite policies.In truth they were genuinely nonsectarian.They did promote right wing policies on privatisation, benefits and cuts in public services.
   .We were successful in linking the local Tories with those in Westminster and by 1997 Alliance was restored as the largest party on North Down council and the Conservatives reduced to 2 Seats.They now have none.

   While I welcome the Tories decision to set up in NI i Ido not believe thet the extreme right polies of Cameron will have any attraction to NI voters and that NI like Scotland will remaina TORY free zone.

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5. Comment on New Hampshire – a cakewalk for Romney?
   on 10 January 2012 at 2:13 pm

   Many commentators expected Romney to sew up the Republican nomination today with a big win in New Hampshire. He will clearly win NH as he has devoted massive resources both money and manpower in the state particularly in the past year. It is a moderate state with many fewer social conservative that most states. He has worked the state since his last unsuccessful attempt in 2008 and has the support of virtually all leading Republicans in NH.
   Despite this recent polls show him getting around 33-35%.Ie almost two third of republican voters want someone else but cannot agree on a single candidate. Paul has hard core support in the high teens and the social conservatives are split between Gingrich and Santorum with Perry opting out and focussing on South Carolina.
   The interesting candidate is Jon Huntsman who has concentrated his campaign on NH. Like Romney he is in republican terms a moderate and in the past few months has more than doubled his support.He also does not have the baggage of being seen as the Wall Street candidate. Two recent polls show him with 16%.If this trend continues he could take a strong second place and seriously damage Romney. On the other hand he may have peaked like the others and fall back again.
   NH has a record of late movements in voting intentions and creating surprises. Romney can I believe wrap up the nomination if he polls 40% of the vote. However if he fails to do this the nomination will remain open as he moves to much less favourable territory in South Carolina and given the new means of allocating delegates on a proportional rather than winner takes all system.
   While Romney will win I still feel it is worth while staying up for the results.

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6. Comment on Hello Iowa..
   on 4 January 2012 at 5:01 pm

   Conclusions from Iowa
   Romney got fewer votes than in 2008-Still not accepted by many conservative Republicans
   Santorum (as predicted) has become established as leading anybody but Romney candidate (ABR)
   Many of the social conservatives have deserted previous front runners Bachmann and Perry (for Santorum) who are now likely to drop out
   Next week New Hampshire
   Romney to win easily but
   Will Santorum be strengthened as social conservatives unite behind him?
   Will Santorum be able to deal with negative publicity to which he has not yet been subjected as he was not previously considered a credible candidate?
   What impact will the candidacy of Huntsman have? He ignored Iowa and focused all his resources in New Hampshire?
   Can Gingrich get a credible vote to enable him to continue to South Carolina and Florida where the polls still show him in the lead?

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7. Comment on Hello Iowa..
   on 4 January 2012 at 5:15 am

   Dewi Im going to bed but I suspect given the location of the precincts still to report Romney may just scrape it but even if he does it is clear that a ;arge number of Conservative right do not want him as Republican nominee.

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8. Comment on Hello Iowa..
   on 4 January 2012 at 3:35 am

   ITS going to be very close but I still think Santorum can make it and make the Republican nomination more interesting

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9. Comment on Hello Iowa..
   on 3 January 2012 at 2:02 pm

   The polls in Iowa have been extremely volatile and it is difficult to predict who will win. While Romney is the favourite I am not convinced he will win.
   If he does and obtain more than 25% of the vote he would be a very hot favourite to win the Republican nomination.
   Iowa is not good territory for Romney as he did not win in2008 despite being favourite. More than half the Republican electorate in Iowa is Christian conservative and is unwilling to support a moderate who is also a Mormon.
   Ron Paula libertarian has strong support and should poll about 20% but the remainder of the conservative electorate have spent the past year trying to unite around an agreed anybody but Romney (ABR).Over recent months a succession of conservatives have headed the polls (Bachmann Perry Cain Gingrich) only to fall away when their weaknesses became apparent when subject to public examination.
   The latest ABR candidate is former Pennsylvanian Senator Rick Santorum who is making a late surge and has strong conservative credentials. I believe he may defeat Romney.
   If Romney does win Iowa he will head to New Hampshire next week and is certain to win easily. This will give him the momentum which will almost certainly give him the Republican nomination.

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10. Comment on DUP propose ending ‘community designation’ for the Assembly..
    on 22 December 2011 at 9:03 pm

    Andrew

    My refusal to to designate has nothing to do with pride but to my lifelong opposition to sectarian politics
    To have designated would have
    –Been a betrayal of what I had stood for for over 40 years
    –A betrayal of the three thousand of voters in North Down who gave me their support in the election
    –In the context of NI politics designation would have resulted in the Green party being labeled as either Unionist or Nationalist despite the fact that we received support from all communities
    Designation and the discrimination which goes with it cannot be justified in a democratic society and I await an explanation of how one can support a system which denied me and my voters a say in important issues such as the budget

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