Slugger O'Toole

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Latest comments from Bill (see all)

Bill has commented 6 times (0 in the last month).

1. Comment on The UUP: Tom Elliott, defectors, rats and Porsches
   on 22 January 2011 at 2:37 am

   Turgon,

   Not saying whether I agree or disagree with everything you say – although your ‘essay’ is very good analysis of a lot of points.

   I just want to correct you on a technical electoral point: You say in your first few lines that Tom would have won by a ‘very large’ margin even if you discount the Fermanagh & South Tyrone (F&ST) votes. This is simply wrong & I can say this, as I was someone who was heavily involved in that election process. If you lower the F&ST Tyrone vote to a normal level (i.e. comparable to the 17 other NI Westminster Constituency Associations) then Yes, Tom still wins, but by between a 55-56.8% margin compared to a 43.2%-45% vote for Basil.

   This could hardly be described as a ‘very large’ margin???

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2. Comment on Obituary for Willie Thompson
   on 17 December 2010 at 4:17 pm

   One of the great pieces of humour from Willie was when David Trimble & the UUP were frequently running Ulster Unionist Council (UUC) meetings, when they were deciding to perhaps go into government with Sinn Fein.

   Before one of these meetings Willie proclaimed that: ‘If this party goes back into government with Sinn Fein/IRA, then I’ll not be in it & I’ll resign immediately’. Then at that UUC meeting the UUP decided to go back into government with SF, but Willie subsequently didn’t resign.

   Then at another UUC meeting several weeks later Willie was asked ‘At the last UUC meeting Mr. Thompson you said you would resign if the UUP went back into government, and you haven’t resigned, so aren’t you a Hypocrite?’ – Willie replied: ‘Well in a party full of hypocrites, one more isn’t going to make a lot of difference’!

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3. Comment on On that Newsletter “Slugger O’Toole” poll…
   on 4 May 2010 at 2:59 am

   OK All

   There’s been a lot of abuse fired at LucidTalk, and myself, and yes, also at the Bel. Tele. poll to be published later today (let’s see what it says before we comment).

   I don’t take back anything I’ve said in the statement above. I said I ‘volunteered’ this information to the Newsletter and Slugger FOC – I covered all the costs myself!

   It doesn’t matter who was going to publish first – Slugger or the Newsletter, the fact is I volunteered to do this Poll at my own expense, and I did that. If I’m doing this at my own expense, then I reserve the right to present the results in any way, and within any timing I choose. BTW: The methodology I used is not garbage as someone has said, it has a rigour to within a 3% error, and if anyone wants to discuss this with me then they are very welcome to do so – Mobile No. below. However, as I explained above, of course there are much more accurate ways of Polling e.g. ‘Deep Polling’ (as described above), but these have to be paid for – the old line comes to mind: ‘You pay for what you get’!

   Apparently, the Bel. Tele. later today are going to publish an 18 constituency poll with a sample size of 160 per each constituency (or so I’m told!), and apparently they’re not going to publish their polling methodology – this borders on the limits of credibility for a Poll. However, again I would say, I’m not going to criticise the Bel. Tele., as I don’t know the business relationship that they have with their supplying company for this polling – i.e. INFORM (maybe it’s all been done free of charge!).

   The bottom line with all this is, that you can’t expect polling companies to go on providing this service FOC, and then start criticising them on blogs like Slugger, or if you’re journalist, in your columns. If you don’t like what we say then ignore it!!

   It’s unbelievable isn’t it – I do this as a hobby, at my own expense (a labour of love if you like), with maybe the small possibility of building a small business, with maybe one employee, which would help the N. Ireland economy, and all you get is a lot of abuse!

   BTW: this point also applies to INFORM’s poll in tomorrow’s Bel. Tele. – at least they’re also trying to do something positive, and move N. Ireland forward a bit!

   Incidentally, I see Ed Currans column in last-nights Bel. Tele., follows my predictions exactly!

   In any case, and I say this to everyone, there’s a day of reckoning comes to all Pollsters – It’s called election day: let’s see what happens on Thursday night – not long to go now!!!

   Bill White – LucidTalk
   M.: 07711 450545

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4. Comment on On that Newsletter “Slugger O’Toole” poll…
   on 3 May 2010 at 5:07 pm

   LucidTalk Statement:

   LucidTalk volunteered to do a Fast-Trak Poll at their own expense for The Belfast Newsletter and Slugger O’Toole.

   Yes, as Mick says, LucidTalk were originally planning to do 2 ‘Deep-Polls’ in two targeted N. Ireland constituencies, however the time and cost constraints were too prohibitive. This is because ‘Deep-Polls’ are required if you target specific seats, in order to achieve the level of accuracy required to do a seat forecast. Deep-Polls involve a sample size of 400 per seat, structured around 40 clusters across the targeted constituency thus providing a balanced socio-economic, and religious sample etc., which is representative of the entire constituency etc. They also have to be done door-to-door and face-to-face, as they involve offering a range of candidate names and political parties, to the prospective voter – It’s too cumbersome to carry out this type of poll by telephone.

   Due to the time constraints, LudidTalk had only 2 days to do this Poll, and as such, had to do/use the ‘Fast-Trak’ methodology of a Telephone poll, using a sample size of 360 across six N. Ireland constituencies. Some people are asking what these six constituencies are – This is irrelevant, as the six reflect, and were meant to reflect, a balanced representation of the whole of Northern Ireland thus ensuring that when you do an 18 seat projection that this reflects (within the bounds of normal error) what the situation is throughout Northern Ireland.

   As such, we carried out a six-constituency telephone poll with a sample size of 360 chosen from across these six constituencies. We then did a projection of this polling data across all 18 Westminster constituencies, and produced the results that are detailed in the report.

   Naturally these ‘Fast-Trak’ polls have a higher error factor, than the ‘Deep Poll’ methodology mentioned above, and should be taken as an approximate prediction only.

   Yes – Everyone can criticise all polling, and the various polling methodologies, and Yes, there is a higher error Factor with the ‘Fast-Trak’ polling method used for this Poll. However, it’s interesting to note that those who criticise the poll above, then go on to do their own projections and forecasts! (I wonder what they base those projections on?)

   I emphasise again that this Poll was done at LudidTalk’s own expense, as I thought it would be a useful exercise to carry out 5-6 days before the election. The Poll has cost several hundred pounds.

   BTW: I agree that perhaps the PUP shouldn’t have been included in the poll, however you have to make a judgement that if someone is not given PUP as an option, then you may get a ‘don’t know’, or a ‘refuse to say’ etc., which is hard to categorise.

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5. Comment on February General Election?
   on 27 January 2010 at 2:56 am

   I predicted 6th May 2010 as early as March last year and put on some bets then – so I hope I’m right, as I will pick-up a tidy sum!!.

   I also repeated this prediction in a speech at the UUP conference last October – only for a bit of craic!, but it got the discussions going particularly with William Hague (who spoke at the conference) looking on smiling!!

   Frankly, I’ve always said that I can’t see how he can pick any other date. One key factor is that important English Local government elections also take place on May 6th including all the London Boroughs and 73 Metropolitan Borough Councils – and that date is fixed. Remember in an election you need troops on the ground canvassing, and key foot-soldiers in any national Westminster campaign are usually the local councillors & their families etc.

   How do you think those local councillors would feel (and any new council candidates), about canvassing in an early election, and then after the Westminster election is over, they have to pick up momentum again for their own re-election campaigns for their local councils a few weeks later, when no doubt everyone will be totally fed-up with politics because of the intensive general election campaign??

   As such, I can’t see how Gordon could risk any other date than May 6th? – He knows you need troops on the ground in an election.

   But I’m not that opinionated – I could be wrong, but I don’t think so!!!!

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6. Comment on Don’t play the old game, Conservatives. Confront, don’t withdraw
   on 25 January 2010 at 5:20 am

   Fin

   I predicted on other Threads months ago that it would be May 6th , and also predicted this at the UUP conference last year. There is no other date that Gordon Brown could have chosen. He made his mind up re. May 6th 2010 a long, long time ago.

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