Monday, December 08, 2008

Zimbabwe: disaster without end?

The disaster which is Zimbabwe has been going on for years: if one counts UDI, decades. The cholera outbreak is now killing increasing numbers and the hospitals seem completely unable to cope. The EU’s less than emphatic response has been to ban a few more Zimbabwean leaders from travelling (it is unclear how many loopholes there will be).

The Archbishop of York John Sentamu has called for military action if necessary to overthrow Mugabe; a position also supported by Desmond Tutu if African troops are used. The problems with military action are of course considerable. Mugabe has always had an effective army and it might remain loyal. Also of course violence would at least temporarily lead to even more deaths. The only African country with an army immediately to hand which could effect the removal of Mugabe is South Africa. Whilst they undoubtedly have the military strength and since Thabo Mbeki’s departure have been more critical of Mugabe it would undoubtedly be difficult for them to launch military action to overthrow a man who was once a hero of the independence movement.

The West of course has the military strength to perform such an action with ease. However, the weight of history is colossally against such an action and any invasion by western powers is almost inconceivable. There is of course a certain irony in that Harold Wilson also felt unable to use military force in 1965 against the country’s previous leadership.

Turgon @ 08:56 PM

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  1. Ciarán, (sorry for misspelling your name earlier)

    Just a couple of thoughts on your gripe with the ‘Africa-as-an-entity’ mentality

    Africans themselves (the political class) strive for some form of general African unity. Kaddafi has been pushing it for years. Africans I reckon have a family-tribal-national-African identity priority.

    Zimbabweans have a lot in common with Ghanaians and possibly Ethiopians, but less so Libyans or Egyptians. Things like farming, music, food and even football bring them together. You would be amazed how much people living in the bush in west Africa know about Mugabe and places like Rwanda and Burundi. There is possibly at least one short-wave radio in every major village. The French magazine Jeune Afrique is read avidly in Arab-African countries and Black-African countries. There is a special affinity between Black Africans though.

    Mnob
    The problem with Africa is that power was handed over from the colonial powers too quickly - without first building up an ‘indigenous’ middle class.

    Colonialists did not have much choice about handing over power. Most countries declared their independence from their colonial masters without thinking through the implications. Some allowed the former colonialists to help them while others expelled them. If you compare, say, the actions of Guinea and Ivory Coast in the 60’s it gives a clear example of the does and don’ts of establishing a new country. Guinea had a lot more resources than IC, yet ended up suffering while IC prospered. Reason being: the Ivorians let the French help them get things going, while the Guineans kicked the French out. 

    Actually the colonial powers did build up an indigenous political class, but the mistake they usually made was training only one or a small group of related ethnic groups who then became the de facto leaders of their countries at independence. Because of the nature of tribalism, these rulers keep most of the country’s wealth for their own people, which in time led to a build up of resentment in the other groups in the country resulting in the countless coups that Africa has witnessed.

    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on Dec 09, 2008 @ 10:48 PM
  2. 6 county prod ,

    You may not be able to count but you know your political history of Africa .  Maybe you should ‘transfer ’ some of that historical acumen to Ireland -North and South .

    Here’s a little help using your own words with just a few minor changes to allow for the Northern Irish and indeed the Irish situation .

    ‘Actually the colonial power did build up an indigenous political class after several generatons , but the mistake they made was empowering only one of the ethno sectarian groups who then became the de facto leaders of Northern Ireland at independence ( UDI 1920 ). Because of the nature of tribalism, the Unionist rulers keep most of the province’s wealth for their own people, which in time led to a build up of resentment with the other group in the province resulting in the endemic rebellions and revolutions that Northern Ireland has enduredover the past 80 years and Ireland generally for several centuries .

    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on Dec 11, 2008 @ 01:43 PM
  3. GF,
    I’ve told you before and I’m not telling you again, 6 into 26 just doesn’t go!

    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on Dec 11, 2008 @ 04:33 PM
  4. 6countyprod

    Actually it does - 4 times and with 2 left over - bringing us back to Greenflag’s old chestnut repartition.

    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on Dec 11, 2008 @ 04:56 PM
  5. 6 county prod ,

    ‘I’ve told you before and I’m not telling you again, 6 into 26 just doesn’t go!’

    Full marks for getting the numbers wrong again:(. There are alas amoeba like unicelled organisms lurking under the frozen surface of Titan who though lacking in fingers and toes attain a higher standard of mathematical computation than yer good self ;)


    IWSMNWDI ,


    ‘Actually it does - 4 times and with 2 left over’

    That’s right . And the two county size area can be left on the other side of a new border after a fair repartition implemented by the UN/EU .
    Speed the day and be done with this farce of an Assembly.

    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on Dec 11, 2008 @ 06:46 PM
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