Monday, May 07, 2007
Why fear the Scottish referendum?
The SNP is having problems finding a coalition partner and may go for a minority administration. The sticking point is a referendum on independence. However, rather than run scared of such a referendum could it be the best option to stop the march of the SNP? The media hype around the SNP advances underestimates the under-lying strength of the Unionist parties. Also the nominal ‘defeat’ in the 1979 Scottish referendum contributed to electoral reversal and internal disputes for the SNP in the 1980’s.
Some relevant electoral data:
1. In 2003, the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives gained 66.5% of the vote. In 2007 they recieved 65%. They have a majority of the second votes too.
2. The SNP has had similar levels of support twice before - 30.4% in the 1974 General Election and 32.4% in the 1994 European election.
3. The SNP had a net gain of 20 seats. The Lab/LD/Cons had a net loss of 5 6 seats. In net terms it was the small parties who were the real losers in the Scottish election, two of whom the SSP and Greens, are pro-indepence parties.
4. In physical vote terms the SNP polled higher in 1999 when they gained 672,757 slightly higher than 664,227 (although the problems with spolied ballots drove this second number down.)
In electoral terms what has broadly happened in the past three elections was a good Labour performance in 1999. In 2003, disillusionment led to a loss of support for Labour but the SNP did not capitalise on this instead the smaller parties were the beneficiaries. In 2007, a revitalised SNP succeeded in attracting the disillusioned under their banner.
Part of the disillusionment with Labour is a lack of leadership and delivery by devolution in Scotland since the death of Donald Dewar. With the exception of Dewar none of the Scottish political heavyweights were willing to sacrifice a Westminster career for Holyrood. Now that John Reid is standing down from the Cabinet, could he be persuaded to head to Holyrood to lead Scottish Labour’s fight back against Salmond and the SNP?
The impact of a referendum defeat on pro-republicans in Australia is probably worth noting.
Fair Deal @ 10:41 AM
Dodrade
“I think the LibDems are making a mistake,they should be a bit more flexible when it comes to the independence referendum.”
Why should they be? They made their position crystal clear during the campaign. They are against independence and an independence referendum. Everyone seems surprised that they meant it.
But they lost badly ! - why should they be able to determine the future ? - they also need to be careful - a lot of their seats are in “nationalist” areas - if I were Salmond I think i’d go 4 another election......
Posted by on May 08, 2007 @ 08:36 PM>>There shouldn’t be an independence referendum because there is simply no real demand for it from the electorate.<<
Not true! Every poll shows overwhelming support for the referendum. Many Unionists like Teach on here want it now before the SNP get a chance to build up a head of steam. In my opinion the electorate punished the lib-dems at the election for their stance. The reality is that people are annoyed at being denied their right to answer the question for themselves.
Could we stop having the nonsense that people would vote along party lines at any proposed independence referendum. Most will vote with their conscience and not along party political lines, this is what the parties who take their orders from London fear.
Posted by on May 09, 2007 @ 09:43 AM“Not true! Every poll shows overwhelming support for the referendum.”
If people wanted an independence referendum then they should have voted for pro independence parties. The fact that two thirds of the electorate did not suggests the polls are wrong, the same polls which gave a SNP a substantial lead over Labour.
Posted by on May 09, 2007 @ 10:51 AMActually Prince personally I think the best time for a referendum would be a year before the next elections.That way if it’s gets accepted it will give people the chance to form other nationalist parties with different views and policies of the SNP(the ssp and the Greens aren’t a viable option for me and after the recent elections obviously a large portion of the Scottish electorate agrees with that).And if it doesn’t get accepted then the elections can focus on other important issues instead of just the independence question.It would also give a chance for the economy to stabilise again before the next elections,as most of us are aware referendums like this usually have an adverse effect on the economy with unemployment and interest rates etc,etc increasing.
Where I think you’re getting mixed up Prince.Was when I offered the opinion that I thought the SNP were missing out on an opportunity to capitalise on their excellent results and the disaffection of people who voted for the other parties.By having the referendum as soon as.
On another note I’m neither a unionist nor a nationalist . I judge each party on the all their polices not just the independence issue.If their was another nationalist party in the last election with polices I both liked and thought would be good for Scotland I would have no qualms in voting for them.
Posted by on May 09, 2007 @ 11:07 AM“I think the LibDems are making a mistake,they should be a bit more flexible when it comes to the independence referendum.”
Why should they be? They made their position crystal clear during the campaign. They are against independence and an independence referendum. Everyone seems surprised that they meant it.
Posted by dodrade on May 08, 2007 @ 07:36 PM
I actually agree with you.I probably haven’t explained what I ment very well.What I was getting at was that there are ways of getting around this point without changing Party policy .For example one way round the problem is to agree a deal in which a White Paper on independence is published later on this year, but a vote on a bill is delayed until around 2009.With the LibDems giving their MSP’s a free vote on the issue when it arises.
That would give the LibDems an opportunity to be part of a coalition Government rather than the opposition !
Posted by on May 09, 2007 @ 12:32 PM“I actually agree with you.I probably haven’t explained what I ment very well.What I was getting at was that there are ways of getting around this point without changing Party policy .For example one way round the problem is to agree a deal in which a White Paper on independence is published later on this year, but a vote on a bill is delayed until around 2009.With the LibDems giving their MSP’s a free vote on the issue when it arises.
That would give the LibDems an opportunity to be part of a coalition Government rather than the opposition !”
How would that get round it? What you’ve proposed is pretty much current SNP policy!
Opposition is the best option for the Lib Dems. To reverse position now would leave them discredited power hungry opportunists. They simply can’t just jump straight into bed with the SNP after 8 years with Labour. Only if the SNP are still the largest party after the next Scottish election could they credibly consider compromise and coalition with them.
Posted by on May 09, 2007 @ 12:48 PMIt would get round it because when it actually came to voting on the white paper in Parliament the LibDems would be free to vote against the referendum,even though they are part of the Government !
As for a SNP/LibDem coalition the LibDem’s publicly stated before the elections the only party they would consider having a coalition with after the 2007 elections would be the SNP.So the people who voted for them knew the possibility of a coalition with the SNP was on the books.A lot of LibDem and SNP policies are very similar e.g. their poll tax and nuclear power policies !
I just want to add I’m not a supporter nor did I vote for any of the two parties above.I was just pointing out there are options around the problems that stopped their coalition.
Posted by on May 09, 2007 @ 01:25 PM“It would get round it because when it actually came to voting on the white paper in Parliament the LibDems would be free to vote against the referendum,even though they are part of the Government !”
How serious could you take a coalition whose two main parties were fundamentally opposed on the constitutional question?
Wait a minute that sounds familiar…
Seriously though, the DUP and SF share power because the system forces them to, no such arrangement exists in Scotland and a similar arrangement is very unlikely at the moment.
Yes the Lib Dems in many ways are closer to the SNP than Labour but neither the SNP or the Lib Dems can credibly compromise on their stated positions at this point. Opposition is the best option for the Lib Dems and better for the SNP to table a referendum bill alone and lose than have to give it up altogether as part of a coalition deal.
Posted by on May 09, 2007 @ 01:43 PMFair do’s Teach.
Good to know you are on board for the 2010 referendum! Let the people decide and all that
Posted by on May 09, 2007 @ 03:49 PM
