Thursday, April 16, 2009
Who will come top of the Euro Poll?
O’Neill directs us to this little virtual betting shop (where you only bet with virtual money), HubDub.com. At the moment, Diane Dodds is taking 39% of the virtual cash, with Bairbre de Bruin coming in a close second at 36%... Though with 5 predictions from 2 people that’s no indication on anything just yet. You can also bet on the precise number of votes Jim Allister is likely to get...
Mick Fealty @ 12:04 PM
DUP 1st
SF 2nd
UUP 3rd
SDLP 4th
Alliance 5th
TUV 6th
Greens 7thPosted by on Apr 16, 2009 @ 02:10 PMA tenner (money to slugger) - says SF will top the poll. First taker.
Another tenner (money to slugger) says Jimbo will get less than 20,000 votes. Again first taker.
Worryingly Paddy Power - who had SF as slight favourite to top the poll now seem to have withdrawn betting on Norn Iron Euro Election.
Posted by on Apr 16, 2009 @ 02:25 PMHmmm, why are we not able to click through to the market, which is after all what Hubdub is about?
And second, it should be pointed out that anybody can create their own markets? How about some more Slugger markets ...
Posted by on Apr 16, 2009 @ 03:28 PMSF
DUP
UUP/CON
SDLP
ALLIANCE
TUVPosted by on Apr 16, 2009 @ 06:28 PMI go along with your analysis Sammy Mc. What’s your take on Jolly Jimbo splitting the Unionist vote and the SDLP sneaking into the third seat?
[South Belfast Deja Vu?]
Posted by on Apr 16, 2009 @ 06:29 PMPaul McMahon
Well I’m a finger in the air sort of chap - but think that the continuing demogrpahic shift towards Nationalism will be partly offset by an increase in garden-centre-prods who will support the UU/foreign unionists(FU)/NF or whatever they are called and the good guys will narrowly miss the third seat - so no change except SF to top the poll with the DUP losing less than 20,000 to the TUV and SF gaining about 15,000 from new voters and ongoing SDLP decline.
Posted by on Apr 16, 2009 @ 06:52 PM1) SF
2) One of DUP/CUNF
3) One of SDLP/DUP/CUNF
4) One of SDLP/DUP/CUNF
5) One of TUV/Alliance
6) One of TUV/Alliance
7) GreensI’m hedging my bets. It all depends on how popular Jimbo is. I have heard that some folk intend voting for him. If he gets a big vote and these garden centre gnomes Sammy believes in vote for CUNF, then CUNF could come second.
I don’t really believe in the garden centre thing myself: surely the legend is that it only re-emerges when there’s a truly important referendum?
If the Jimbo voters fail to transfer, then DUP could come fourth! Yes, South Belfast is the model. You start off with a small Unionist advantage and squander it by running too many candidates.
Posted by on Apr 16, 2009 @ 08:07 PMPaddyReilly,
I’m only suggesting that the garden-centre-Prods* will keep the UU/Foreign Unionists/NF with the same number of votes or a small increase - rather than on their natural trajectory which is downwards.
*North Down will be the judge of this - it had a very, very low turnout last time round.
Posted by on Apr 16, 2009 @ 08:44 PM“If the Jimbo voters fail to transfer, then DUP could come fourth”
I think that transfers will be THE key element in deciding who takes the third seat.
Posted by on Apr 16, 2009 @ 08:50 PMWhat if another republican, not aligned to any “dissident group”, but who was respected among the general republican community, was to throw his/her hat into the ring?
Interesting times, indeed.
Posted by on Apr 16, 2009 @ 11:48 PMI predict a lot of Dup will give jimbo their 2nd preferences as they may have given him their first but don’t want sf to top the poll.
anyone care to comment on the outcome of that scenario?Posted by on Apr 17, 2009 @ 01:19 AMI also predict jim will get near 50,000.
Posted by on Apr 17, 2009 @ 01:20 AMSammy
1. Conservatives and Unionists or CU’s will do just fine.
2. See http://torystoryni.wordpress.com/ for a voting theory that will be unsettling for the DUP.
3. I think you are way low for the TUV could be double your estimate.
Posted by on Apr 17, 2009 @ 07:06 AMthe DUP losing less than 20,000 to the TUV and SF gaining about 15,000 from new voters and ongoing SDLP decline.
Sammy,
You underestimate the potential of the hardline, disaffected Unionist vote, I’ve plumped for 25,000 to 30,000 for the TUV. SF may well top the poll, but it will be with a reduced total number of votes- there more than a few disaffected republicans out there too.
Posted by on Apr 17, 2009 @ 07:35 AMIt’s interesting that no one is particularly interested in the capabilities or record of the candidates. Ms De Brun will do very well beyond a doubt but as an M.E.P she is rarely heard off and, for example very few in the farming community know anything about her.What is Allister’s record in Europe and many would have to ask ‘who is the other M.E.P.?’ It is a telling lesson that it’s still ‘us and them’ politics here in the wee six.
Posted by on Apr 17, 2009 @ 08:32 AMIt’s interesting that no one is particularly interested in the capabilities or record of the candidates.
Yes that’s right, this is a sectarian headcount, a proxy referendum, with added capacity for calculating the current popularity of the various Nationalist/Unionist parties.
The European Parliament is just a joke, it merely does what the various national governments tell it to.
Posted by on Apr 17, 2009 @ 12:57 PMInteresting post!
I would be confident in thinking that Sinn Fein will top the poll this time around.
THinking TUV will muster around 20/25,000 votes.
Notice that Paddy Power had the Alliance and Greens on the same odds of 80/1 chance of winning! would love to see the Greens give the Alliance a run for their money!
Quoting Brian Feenys column on tuesdays Irish news regarding the Alliance Party:
Feeney, “...those contests will squeeze the NIO’s former front party with their pro-union voters rushing to save respectable unionism from humiliation. At the last election in 2004 they didnt even field a candidate but clubbed up with the north’s other irrelevants to hide behind a so-called independent who was duly slaughtered.”.
On another note I came across an article in which the BNP leader Nick Griffen said everyone in Britain will have the opportunity to vote BNP in the euro elections. They have been campaigning in parts of NI so perhaps we might even see the BNP attempt the election.Posted by on Apr 17, 2009 @ 12:59 PMSF 150000
DUP 125000
UCUNF 85000
SDLP 80000
TUV 50000
ALL 37000
GREEN 12000Posted by on Apr 17, 2009 @ 01:41 PMI earlier compiled info on the total anti-agreement votes and posted it here on Slugger. I think the total (including the McCartney multiple candidacies) and oddities like David Calvert et al came to 20,000 or thereabouts.
If that was to double, I’d be very surprised. I’d estimate 30,000.
Posted by on Apr 17, 2009 @ 02:20 PM...come to think of it that figure included anti-Agreement Republicans.
I think TUV votes wil be 20-25000 at most.
Posted by on Apr 17, 2009 @ 02:30 PMJo
Have you any idea about NI politics?
The TUV votes will come from disenchanted DUP voters who were anti-agreement last time out; there were 175,000 of them not 20,000.
Posted by on Apr 17, 2009 @ 03:21 PMFrustrated Democrat
Given that Wee Reggie is anti-the-transfer-of Police-and-Justice then we can count the Ulster Unioinists(UU)/Foreign Unionists(FU) NF as anti-agreement this time round and throw him in with Jimbo.
Those that are against implementing the GFA/STA would be best voting for the TUV or UU/FU NF - so much for PoshBoyDavidCameron(PBDC) saying he is going to end tribal politics in Norn Iron when he is actively encourgaing their continuance.
Posted by on Apr 17, 2009 @ 04:29 PMI think TUV votes wil be 20-25000 at most.
Paddy Power offered the best odds (to himself that is, not to the punter) on 30-40,000 for TUV. I suspect he knows what he is doing.
Posted by on Apr 17, 2009 @ 04:53 PMSammy
Are you a slow learner?
Conservatives and Unionists or CU’s
Conservatives and Unionists or CU’s
Conservatives and Unionists or CU’s
take 100 lines.
Posted by on Apr 17, 2009 @ 06:32 PMPaddy Reilly,
Patrick Power is now not offering odds on this any more that I can see. I think the bookies tend to overestimate how well SF will do and this may also be the same with the TUV. Do Prods bet as much as the good guys?
Frustrated Democrat,
Thanks for that - but I prefer Ulster Unionists(UU)/Foreign Unionists(FU) NF.
Of course you didnt deal with the substantive point that the aforementioned party/parties are actually standing on an anti-agreement policy.
The ridciculous spin by PBDC that he was in the business of ending tribal politics has been shown up as soon as they get to the first election. lol.
Posted by on Apr 17, 2009 @ 09:33 PM
