Thursday, March 20, 2008
What is the future for Irish Nationalism today?
It’s probably true that the main flow of people and commercial traffic within and between these islands has been for some time on an east west, rather than a north/south axis. Dublin London and Belfast London account for substantially thicker traffic flows than Belfast Dublin. In a survey conducted a few years back 84% of people in the Republic had visited London, whereas only 50% had been to Northern Ireland. Fionnuala O’Connor gets to the heart of a rather awkward matter: despite the pretensions of nationalists north and south, the quality of cultural relations between the two parts of the island is poor (subs needed):
The two jurisdictions have much in common: they are also strange to each other. What are VHI and the Mahon tribunal to scratchily peaceful Northern Ireland? Who in the Republic can sympathise with northerners insisting RTÉ Radio One keeps its time-honoured wavelength? Alienation, that’s the word. But mutual, and lack of passion can be a good thing.
Wishful thinking is not going to mend the tear of partition:
The two cannot be made one without a cost that nobody wants to pay, even without consideration of revived, potentially murderous, loyalist reaction, even if the Tiger gets its stripy legs under it again. The GAA is the only unifying agency on the island, though a mystery to most northern Protestants - and a few Catholics, it must be said. It is the experience the Irish in the North have traditionally craved, the feeling of oneness with the separated brethren down the road, ever harder to sustain. Sentiment rarely trumps economic self-interest, and the sentiment has been fading for a long time.
And the last year delivered yet another sobering reality check for Republicans:
Sinn Féin’s gunk in last year’s Dáil election was the sharpest revelation of distance for them to date, the nastiest contrast with Northern success. It does not really matter that the contest between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael relegated the smaller parties. Effect was more important than causes. Republicans are still struggling with the death of the “transitional” dream, of gradual reunification via North/Southery with SF ministers on both sides of the table.
Unionists may not know what to make of modern “Ireland”, the name most use for the neighbouring state. But then Northern nationalism is equally at a loss - and what is Irish nationalism today?
The first was the delivery of the results of the 2001 Census, in which, as Henry McDonald so memorably put it at the time: “...the straight-talking statisticians at the census office metaphorically ripped off Santa’s beard last Thursday and exposed the ‘Count the Catholics’ theory as a fake.” Or as Graham Gudgin put it back then (December 2002), “Sooner or later, though, there will have to be a re-assessment.”
Tom McGurk was more sanguine: “Partition in everything except as a line on a map was thereby [the Belfast Agreement] ended. Importantly, this was not by territorial acquisition, but by the creation of a new political superstructure whose very purpose was to eliminate the crisis originally created by the territorial imperative.”
In truth, much attention in the intervening period has been taken up in the management of various crises, so that there seems to have been little time or space given, publicly at least, to the questions thrown up by the census figures, or the sense of drift that has continued between proponents of Northern Irish nationalism and their counterparts in the Republic. Even the much speculated upon (and always prospective) merger between Fianna Fail and the SDLP, one suspects, is not likely to offer, of itself, any kind of magical formula.
Mick Fealty @ 11:43 AM
Second sentence should read “..than Belfast Dublin...”?
Posted by on Mar 20, 2008 @ 12:02 PMIndeed, thanks Jo… more speed, less haste… x 1,000…
Posted by on Mar 20, 2008 @ 12:08 PMMick
1. Economic self interest
The assumption is that the North must always have a subsidy on Britain; that moving to the economic policies of the South could not reduce or eliminate the subsidy; and the subsidy would always be too large for the Republic to bear without major pain. None of those things are necessarily true.
The danger for Nationalism in painting the North as a “failed state” is that the South might take it to heart. The North, properly managed, has a lot going for it. It has two good universities and a decently educated populace at the top end. It also has lower wages. Border areas become less isolated and there are potential savings. Over the long term it would mean a net increase in GDP and more spending power for the government.
In this sense Nationalism is doing the right thing—trying to get into the Assembly and improving things that narrows the gap. They need to take the next step and get past the dependence mentality on the British and the idea that if something is wrong, or funding is cut, the answer the to blame the British Government. Even when it is their fault.
2. The “transitional dream”
SF has not been destroyed. Their vote has remained stable at 7-8%. They continue to play a long game. They could still, even with reduced numbers, wind up in Government. They will maintain a beach head int he North and advantages other smaller parties do not have. History does not end because of a single bad election.
Moreover, FF are going to organise here. That is “transitional dream” writ large if they have any degree of electoral success.
3. Demographics.
Hard to say what will happen. Unionism will certainly lose its majority. Whether Nationalism ever gains one remains to be seen. Birth rate is only part of the equation on that score.
In any case, relying on demographics is not a good idea. We should be aiming for the Republic of Tone. I have stated elsewhere—Protestant, even Northern Protestant influence on Nationalism cannot be denied. Not typical, but there. This has been totally suppressed by the Troubles. Nationalism should be pursuing a 50-state strategy. They should be on the Shankill and in Sandy Row. They should be in North Down and Stangford. Not in an in your face way, but in a we’re here, working for you way. If even 10% of current Unionists could be pursued to consider a United Ireland in 30 years, that’d be a revolution. You cannot win
4. Sentiment
A positive referendum in the North would trigger one in the South. I can’t see anyone campaigning against it, polls remain supportive.
5. Movement
People go where there is work. Few of my father’s and mother’s generation went South. I can think of only one. They all went to England or Australia. I know of more people doing that now, so I’d wonder if there has been an increase.
Posted by on Mar 20, 2008 @ 12:26 PM“You cannot win”
should be
“You cannot win where you don’t organise and don’t stand”
Posted by on Mar 20, 2008 @ 12:28 PMThe death of Irish nationalism has long been mooted but ultimately I feel that its decline is much exagerated.
I compare it to a kind of teenage rebellion, yes many in the South condemn nationalism, 1916, the War of Independence, De Valera etc. etc.
But at the end of the day when it comes down to it only a tiny handful really believe in ending Irish political independence, even those would think again I think if it came to the crunch.
Let us not forget that not one single elected rep in the southern state openly advocates the surrender of Irish soveriegnty, to the UK at least.
As someone who gives serious thought to repartation, subject to referenda on a ward level breakdown ... http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/images/maps/map12.htm
(one can dismiss it now but if there ever is pro-United Ireland I think alot more will be interested in it), I cannot help thinking that eventually, if northern nationalists are completely disowned by southern Ireland and its body politic that a three state solution may tragically be the final outcome of Irish history, Ulster-Scots Orange Northern Ireland, The Republic of Ireland and a Nationalist Ulster Republic.Posted by on Mar 20, 2008 @ 12:31 PMStick with me while I wander....
Having lived in Belfast, Dublin and London for the last ten years I agree to an extent that northern nationalism as preached by sinn feinn in belfast is out of touch I think that the border itself slowly fades away, particularly in the West.
Indeed Belfast and it’s hinterland is a rarefied atmosphere from which the shinners seem unable to reach for a pulse of modern nationalism so deafened are they by the heartbeats of tribalism.
As for the the Belfast-Dublin/London links I feel that unfortunately patition sucked up so much of the intellectual, social and cultural capital of people in the north that we all emerge now blinking in the sunlight to find that relations between Dublin-London have left us trailing with our historical bitterness in the wke of modern pragmatism.
As a graduate from Queen’s, in Dublin in 2001, I was at first angered by the unapologetic ambivalence (and at times ignorance) of many southern graduates to the north, but after a while I got used to it, a process of normalisation for me perhaps to such an extent that while I remained obviously concerned over the progress being made I had no wish to discuss it with anyone. People were concerned with working hard, paying the mortgage/rent and then having a good time. Not much room for the norths problems there then.
Then in London the surprise for me was how much more comfortable those from the south were here in the company of the English and indeed international workforce in the city than many from the north. “You are Irish too?” “Well yeah, from the North”
“Oh I’ve never been North, but I’ve been to Dublin” etc etc etc.
The truth is I think all Northerners, whatever there politics emerge from this troubled time in our history with much work to do. The reputation of our people was that we were headstrong, blinded by our beliefs, vicious in the fight and possibly worse.
On the upside, I feel that we become with each passing year more comfortable with our own story, with who we are and why our political situation is what it is. Fundamentally we remain secregated over our nationality and that is a problem.
However I reman optimistic that us nordies can rebuild a solid reputation in these islands and further afield in the years to come.
I am Irish. I am an Ulsterman. My nationalism and view of things does not have to equate with those in Munster, Leinster or Connacht to make my Irish identity valid. Indeed I suspect that we are destined to differ on a huge range of topics and therefore, as some unionists suggest, people outside ulster won’t support a United Ireland. But just because they disagree with me doesn’t mean that to be in a United Ireland I have to abandon what I believe is right.
Right now the real and true challenge for northern nationalism is to build a healthy social, cultural, intellectual and economic North where all our people, be they Irish, British or both (or indeed neither) can acheive in the future.
Posted by on Mar 20, 2008 @ 12:39 PMJust 5% of tourists who come to the Republic cross the border.
Trade with Northern Ireland accounts for just 2.1% of the Republic’s imports and 2% of its exports.
Only 1.2% of the Republic’s population were born in Northern Ireland.
Simply put, Northern Ireland doesn’t matter in the everyday life of people from the Republic.
Our jobs don’t depend on NI, our neighbours aren’t from there and there is little or no cultural overflow.
On the other hand, there are five times as many people from Britain living in the Irish Republic, GB accounts for 16.7% of our exports and a whopping 30% of our imports.
As for demographics of NI, I agree that people should forget the Catholic headcounting for a moment but that doesn’t mean not looking at the overall situation.
Just 40% of those under 5 in NI are Protestant so for NI to survive in the long term, it will need the active support of more than Protestants. This is a different situation than previously so obviously demographics will play a part going forward and cannot be ignored.
Posted by on Mar 20, 2008 @ 12:54 PM‘People were concerned with working hard, paying the mortgage/rent and then having a good time. Not much room for the norths problems there then. ‘
No different in 2008 . And it won’t be any different in 2016.
‘Then in London the surprise for me was how much more comfortable those from the south were here in the company of the English and indeed international workforce in the city than many from the north.’
Why would that have been a surprise ? I’ve seen and experienced the same phenomenon all over the world . I have to think it’s a natural outcome which originates in the internal NI ‘identity’ issue . People from the Republic don’t have any hang ups over their identity neither do the English. The ‘Unionist’ in Britain feels slighted because he’s considered Irish not British whereas the Irish are considered as what they are i.e Irish . Using terms such as Ulster Scot /Ulster/ Northern Irish, results in a mostly glazed over or indifferent response from most English people and from many others .
‘Right now the real and true challenge for northern nationalism is to build a healthy social, cultural, intellectual and economic North where all our people, be they Irish, British or both (or indeed neither) can achieve in the future.’
Well yes -nice words but easier said than done . Without wishing to sound like a party pooper I think the best that can be hoped for within NI given the limitations of power of the local Assembly and the sectarian political divide is that it plods along in present mode -incapable and powerless to change the policies that need changing to make the best of NI’s limited resources in terms of both human and other capital. A future as a kind of ‘New Belgium ‘ comes to mind . A colourless -odourless province that’s neither here nor there a perpetual limboland that’s forever torn between two worlds one dead and the other powerless to be born ! . A meal that’s neither fish nor fowl but just a grey gruel dished out on portioned plate.
But hey it’s an improvement on the past :)
Perhaps after the ‘excitement’ of all the raised and dashed hopes of the past 40 years this is just what’s needed ?
As for Irish Nationalism ? It’s not going away . . Unionism on the other hand is in retreat . That much is obvious . Where to we don’t yet know. Neither do I believe do the ‘leaders’ of Unionism !
Posted by on Mar 20, 2008 @ 01:40 PMIrish nationalism is collapsing in on itself, simply because it doesn’t have time to change into an inclusive Nationalism and dump the secular ideologies it styled itself upon. The time factor is made more poignant because British and European nationalism are both becoming more attractive today than ever before, simply because they have always been about unionism, although not always executed in the way desired.
Although it may be argued that in the British Isles, European Nationalism might win the day, the fact remains that Irish Nationalism’s best chance of maintaining the idiosyncrasies it has become known by, is through identity rather than Nationalism.
Posted by on Mar 20, 2008 @ 01:49 PM… the delivery of the results of the 2001 Census, in which, as Henry McDonald so memorably put it at the time: “...the straight-talking statisticians at the census office metaphorically ripped off Santa’s beard last Thursday and exposed the ‘Count the Catholics’ theory as a fake.”
There is, of course, an alternative theory. That Henry and the ‘straight-talking statisticians’ were responding not to any real expectation of a Catholic majority in 2001, but to a falsely created hype. This hype, fuelled intensively before the results came out, was designed to make nationalists think that their day was coming - and then to severely depress them when the truth came out. More sober (nationalist-minded) commentators never expected more than 44-45% Catholic in 2001, which is pretty much what it was.
Some people suspect black ops were at work, with a double aim; to bounce SF into line on the back of a ‘disappointing’ census result, and equally to reinvigorate unionism with a ‘positive’ result, allowing them to think that their situation was safer demographically than they had thought. The stats were far from infallible, and different interpretations could be, and were, drawn, with the media always following the spin they were fed.
Unfortunately for unionism, though, their demographic situation is pretty terminal. Many stats show the decline both of the unionist share of the vote (now often below 50%) and the protestant share of the population - prod kids have been a minority for almost a generation, and when they grow up and start voting, the future ain’t orange.
I agree with Kensei - a true Republic, including the willing participation of all, protestant and catholic, would be great. But currently the change in the demographics is faster than the change in unionist thinking. So we will probably get our republic through a headcount. Once unionism realises this, there may be some new thinking, but it is a pity that it will be inspired by the dawning realisation that they’re going to be outvoted, rather than by a genuine commitment to making our island the best place it could be for all of its people.
Posted by on Mar 20, 2008 @ 02:06 PMBritish and European nationalism are both becoming more attractive today than ever before, simply because they have always been about unionism, although not always executed in the way desired.
That’s hilarious. British nationalism is expressed through the BNP, the most unattractive political party in both Ireland and the UK. (Please don’t try and pass off the ‘British Isles’ on us as a political/geographical entity - that may be the case on your maps but not on mine.).
Unionism is no more than the most provincial nationalism, without any real culture and with a manufactured language.
Posted by on Mar 20, 2008 @ 02:06 PMAs for Irish Nationalism ? It’s not going away . . Unionism on the other hand is in retreat . That much is obvious . Where to we don’t yet know. Neither do I believe do the ‘leaders’ of Unionism !
Greenflag, for someone who can write a decent account of factual evidence, you do seem to have an inability to perceive the change in attitudes.
Posted by on Mar 20, 2008 @ 02:06 PM“As for Irish Nationalism ? It’s not going away . . Unionism on the other hand is in retreat . That much is obvious . Where to we don’t yet know. Neither do I believe do the ‘leaders’ of Unionism !”
Greenflag, for someone who can write a decent account of factual evidence, you do seem to have an inability to perceive the change in attitudes.
Posted by on Mar 20, 2008 @ 02:06 PMGreenflag, for someone who can write a decent account of factual evidence, you do seem to have an inability to perceive the change in attitudes.
As said by a man who claimed British Unionism is waxing while the SNP are in power in Scotland, Plaid share power in Wales and SF share power in NI.
Posted by on Mar 20, 2008 @ 02:15 PMUlsters my homeland, if anything your comments highlight exactly what Niall said above. Come south of the border and see an Irish nationalism that really couldn’t give a damn. I could pick over whether British nationalism really finds European nationalism as attractive as you think, or whether Irish nationalism, with is fervent European patriotism, is more “inclusive”, but that’s not the point. The point is, Irish nationalism in Northern Ireland, like British nationalism in Northern Ireland, is so seriously out of touch with it’s counterpart anywhere else on these islands that the best you can hope for is glazed looks from the Scotsman, Englishman, Welshman, or southern Irishman who really is more interested paying off his mortgage. We (the Scotsman, Englishman, Welshman, or southern Irishman) have more in common with each other than you.
Posted by on Mar 20, 2008 @ 02:17 PM“That’s hilarious. British nationalism is expressed through the BNP, the most unattractive political party in both Ireland and the UK. (Please don’t try and pass off the ‘British Isles’ on us as a political/geographical entity - that may be the case on your maps but not on mine.).”
Concubhar O Liatháin, you obviously have no idea what British Nationalism is. It’s the same Nationalism that fought in the Somme, against the Nazi’s and the same Nationalism that is being reinvigorated once more in the Irish Republic. Live with it, instead of trying to blacken the name of your fallen Irishmen, the men who actually died for your freedom, instead of comparing their bravory with the likes of the BNP.
Posted by on Mar 20, 2008 @ 02:19 PM“I agree with Kensei - a true Republic, including the willing participation of all, protestant and catholic, would be great. But currently the change in the demographics is faster than the change in unionist thinking. So we will probably get our republic through a headcount. Once unionism realises this, there may be some new thinking, but it is a pity that it will be inspired by the dawning realisation that they’re going to be outvoted, rather than by a genuine commitment to making our island the best place it could be for all of its people.”
It is scarcely believable that some nationalists still have the mindset! Unionism is not a recalitrant child being gradually dragged into a Republic which it will then discover was best for it all along. People are unionists because they genuinely want to remain part of the United Kingdom and see there future there. Unionism isn’t some sort of ruse to annoy the taigs! Jesus wept.
Posted by on Mar 20, 2008 @ 02:19 PMBritain is an island.
Ireland is an island.
And neither can be an isle of the other.
The British isles are to the east of Ireland.
Grouping them together would correctly be referred to as “The European Western isles”, or similarly “The North Atlantic Archipeligo”.
Thankfully National Geographic in the United States have now corrected this.Posted by on Mar 20, 2008 @ 02:20 PMAs said by a man who claimed British Unionism is waxing while the SNP are in power in Scotland, Plaid share power in Wales and SF share power in NI.
Stop spouting lies kensei? Is this how you deal with a post, by taking on the man and telling lies?
Posted by on Mar 20, 2008 @ 02:22 PMThe British isles are to the east of Ireland.
lol. Imagine if you had the same hat for Europe, you’d be saying it was in ChinaPosted by on Mar 20, 2008 @ 02:24 PM“the men who actually died for your freedom”
Please explain?
Posted by on Mar 20, 2008 @ 02:24 PMPosted by Concubhar O Liatháin on Mar 20, 2008 @ 02:06 PM
You see Concubhar I can’t agree anymore with a total rejection of the idea that the British Isles is real.
I have no sources to quote or polcy to link to like many posters on here do, all I will say as someone who has worked and studied throughout these islands it is ridiculous for me, a Northern Nationalist if we are simplistic, to deny that there exists between the Free state govt and the British a “special relationship”.
Many people I met from the south while making careers, lives and indeed fortunes for themselves in London were very much at home there. The cultural differences remain but there is in my view a peace between the Irish and English that from my experience is even on a better footing than that with the Scots and Welsh.
Indeed it is noted above the numbers of English living in the south have surged in recent years which is related to the prosperity but also to the peoples ability to just get along with each other.
Further, as a northern nationalist I was ofetn astounded by the pro union media coverage in the south. I have formed a view that this is reflective of the fact that the North position, remaining in the Union has for many in the south been a credible way to maintain legitimacy in England, a maintenance of a fudged relationship which means there are rights and a sense of entitlement from those in the south to access to the English economy, education, media and politics.
Look at the number of Irish who we consider to have “made it” by being successful across the way?
This is at the heart of why the shinners nationalism fails with many of those who aspire for success in the free state. I say that maintaining the union without commiting anything to it has been a convenient position for many in the south.
Therefore call it something but I don’t think you can make an outright denial of a british isles.
Posted by on Mar 20, 2008 @ 02:29 PM“you’d be saying it was in China”.
Don’t be ridiculous.
Posted by on Mar 20, 2008 @ 02:29 PMOilifear,
“We (the Scotsman, Englishman, Welshman, or southern Irishman) have more in common with each other than you.”
Whats your solution then? Are you a (neo-)unionist?
Again, perhaps a nationalist homeland in majority nationalist areas in the North will be the only option that presents itself in the future.
I think us nordies have to put the questions to oursleves, is it self determination or a united Ireland, perhaps they arent the same?
Posted by on Mar 20, 2008 @ 02:29 PM“… what British Nationalism is. It’s the same Nationalism that fought in the Somme, against the Nazi’s and the same Nationalism that is being reinvigorated once more in the Irish Republic.”
Many kinds of nationalisms fought at the Somme and against the Nazis. Could you be more precise?
“Live with it, instead of trying to blacken the name of your fallen Irishmen, the men who actually died for your freedom, instead of comparing their bravory with the likes of the BNP.”
I really don’t get the link that you make here. Could you be more explicit about what it is.
Posted by on Mar 20, 2008 @ 02:32 PM
