Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Mick - where are you watching Stewart? You in the States?
Posted by on Nov 05, 2008 @ 12:58 AMYes the numbers for PA are real, but the projection of the State for O’Bama is based on the 1% returns so far.
Now at 2% with 69% O’Bama and 30% McCain. I know this thing is studied to a fine art but it seems very dangerous to project on 1% of electorate.Posted by on Nov 05, 2008 @ 12:58 AMIs Stewart on? I thought Indecision was at 10. Damn!
Posted by on Nov 05, 2008 @ 12:59 AMBlitzer and CNN are now projecting Alabama for McCain based again on only 1% of the returns so far. These projections seem to be based on TV ratings - getting the scoop.
Posted by on Nov 05, 2008 @ 01:00 AMI’m not eating my Florida hat just yet, but Obama has opened up a 200,000 vote lead, 43% in.
Posted by on Nov 05, 2008 @ 01:00 AMThanks, Lafcadio. I didn’t notice that. Bah.
Posted by on Nov 05, 2008 @ 01:01 AMNYT wins at conservative: right now calling only 47 Obama, 8 McCain.
Posted by on Nov 05, 2008 @ 01:03 AMRural North Florida is grim for Obama with him polling below Kerry’s numbers in many heavily white areas - but this is a low population area. Orange County (Orlando) had a Kerry lead of under 800 last time, but with 91% counted Obama already has a lead of nearly 84,000!
Neck and neck Pinellas County (Clerwater) has seen a Bush lead of 266 votes turn into an Obama lead of 35,000 with 93% counted.
St. Lucie County is a big worry for Obama, with no change from the 51-48 Democratic result last time with 76% counted.
North Dakota goes McCain - the upset doesn’t happen there.
Wisconsin goes Obama - break out the beer!
Alabama goes McCain - break out the burning crosses.
Posted by on Nov 05, 2008 @ 01:03 AMFox is calling Ohio for Obama! Now the fat lady really is warming up!
Posted by on Nov 05, 2008 @ 01:04 AMFOX calling Ohio for Obama…
Posted by on Nov 05, 2008 @ 01:05 AMNH and NM senators for Dems - looks like 51 for Dems so far. Not looking good for GOP.
Posted by on Nov 05, 2008 @ 01:05 AMI know this thing is studied to a fine art but it seems very dangerous to project on 1% of electorate.
They called PA on the basis of a huge Obama lead in the exit polls.
1% in a state like PA can be enough, if the 1% includes a couple of hundred precincts which are a good mix of urban, suburban and rural, rich and poor, white, black and other ethnic, Philly, Pittsburgh and Central PA, etc. etc.
Posted by on Nov 05, 2008 @ 01:06 AMHeard on CNN: “Some Bradley effect, huh?”
Posted by on Nov 05, 2008 @ 01:07 AMNH and NM senators for Dems
Those are not big surprises - NC was a nig one, MN, KY, GA and AK are the other ones to watch.
Posted by on Nov 05, 2008 @ 01:07 AMYeah, I’m quite pleased with NC, I must say.
Posted by on Nov 05, 2008 @ 01:08 AMCNN: The Republican will pick up the states of North Dakota and Wyoming, while Democrat Barack Obama will take Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Rhode Island and Wisconson.
Posted by on Nov 05, 2008 @ 01:09 AMAgreed Sammy, I understand all that, just don’t like these guys making news instead of reporting it. They got it terrible wrong very recently, calling Florida 3 different ways in one night. This election will not be that close but I think its not best practice.
Posted by on Nov 05, 2008 @ 01:13 AMPol, if you’re on a Windows, try TVU Player. Am looking into Mac options.
Posted by on Nov 05, 2008 @ 01:15 AM“So, Sarah, do you think you’d do anything differently given the chance?”
“Youbetcha!”http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=NrzXLYA_e6E&feature=related
Poor slugger…
Posted by on Nov 05, 2008 @ 01:17 AMThey got it terrible wrong very recently, calling Florida 3 different ways in one night. This election will not be that close but I think its not best practice.
They tightened up considerably after the 2000 fiasco. I’m confident that the networks will perform well tonight.
FWIW, they’ve all called Texas for McCain!
Posted by on Nov 05, 2008 @ 01:17 AMFat Lady singing - now for Glenrothes and NZ next Saturday….. although I will wait and see every blasted vote from every blasted precinct…..
Posted by on Nov 05, 2008 @ 01:18 AMHere really is an intriguing one, from Justin Webb’s BBC blog:
Fascinating tales from Virginia - a Democratic lawyer tells me that litigation may follow if they lose the state: sophisticated efforts have been made to derail their victory, they claim, involving a double computer hack - into the DNC and a university - in order to try to keep the student vote down with false messages.
Meanwhile US Ambassador John Bolton is effectively conceding on the Beeb feed.
Posted by on Nov 05, 2008 @ 01:20 AMOhio is starting to look good for Obama - he seems to be getting a consistent swing of about 4% on average - he only needs a 1% swing to win.
Posted by on Nov 05, 2008 @ 01:23 AMNBC has called Ohio to Obama. But at 11% reporting, I’m reserving judgment.
Posted by on Nov 05, 2008 @ 01:24 AMWest Virginia projected for McCain but based on only 22% of votes.
Posted by on Nov 05, 2008 @ 01:26 AM
