Monday, May 28, 2007
Taking it on the chin
From the ecstasy of March to the agony of May, 2007 is turning out to be quite the rollercoaster year for republicans. Whilst the Assembly election results gave Sinn Fein much to cheer, this one’s a big disappointment, and there can be no denying that fact.
Sinn Fein entered the election with five seats and a real prospect of doubling that tally- based on opinion polls and advances made in the 2004 European and local elections. Instead, we’ve fallen back by one seat in Leinster House, with a couple of candidates just missing out and others coming in well short of expectations.
In one sense, there’s a need to be philosophical about the results. The legacy of this election will be the drive back towards a bipolar system in the 26 counties, with Enda having nearly as many reasons to be pleased as Bertie after Fine Gael’s leap forward to its pre-2002 seat tally. Sinn Fein weren’t alone amongst the small parties in experiencing the squeeze, though in itself that shouldn’t merit much consolation.
In another sense, however, this will necessitate a rigorous analysis of the way forward for the party in the 26 counties. Concerns about policy positions, leadership strategies and structural development will need to be aired and honestly debated.
Honest scrutiny must be the way forward as anything less would be to repeat the mistakes of other parties who preferred denial to reality when it came to explaining away electoral setbacks- in this regard, let no republican speak of ‘borrowed votes…’
The moment I first realised that we were in for a setback was about one minute past seven on Friday morning, the moment I heard the result of the RTE Exit Poll. With Sinn Fein targeting primarily Fianna Fail and Fine Gael seats across the state, news that both had performed well- coupled with our own sluggish returns from the Exit Poll- suggested that the day ahead wouldn’t be bringing the best of news for republicans.
Whilst the border county vote remains solid- and indeed growing in the case of Donegal- there must be real concern at the failure to retain the voters in the Capital and in the numerous other target constituencies across the state.
My own instincts and experiences ensure I avoid simple ‘after the event’ explanations. In this regard, I’m highly suspect of the media consensus which is promoting the view that Adams’ performance in the ‘First Debate’ was a critical moment in the campaign, for a number of reasons.
Having watched the debate, I came away content with Gerry Adams’ performance. Whilst he did use broad brush language when answering a number of questions, the debate never really got down to matters of fine detail. The post- Count media consensus that Adams somehow got battered by Michael McDowell conveniently ignores the fact that McDowell lost his own seat and that of ¾ of his party in this election- hardly the spoils of victory.
If truth be told, I think there were a number of contributing factors to the poor election result for Sinn Fein. There is undoubtedly a need for republicans to develop and promote 26 county figures within the upper echelons of the party leadership, and these individuals must be equipped with a policy platform which is viewed as being sharp, deliverable and, uniquely, reflective of the all-Ireland character of Sinn Fein.
Republicans are perhaps better positioned now to develop the latter due to the onset of devolved governance in the six counties, where republicans- like all other parties in the six counties- will be increasingly focused on coming to terms with the responsibilities of day-to-day management of the administration and all that entails for policy development.
A feature of this campaign was that, as a small player in the south of Ireland, Sinn Fein was simply cast to the side in terms of relevancy as the campaign spotlight focused firmly on the choice of who to put in charge of the still growing and prospering economy. The fact that Sinn Fein was dismissed by all other parties as a potential coalition partner also played a significant part- in this sense, Fianna Fail’s decision in the final days to forcefully rule out any role for republicans in a potential administration was an excellent tactical move: faced with voting for a party who could lead the government and one dismissed as an irrelevance by all parts of the political mainstream, those floating between Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail in the former’s target constituencies decisively shifted behind Bertie, with emphatic results.
For republicans of a younger generation, this is the first significant electoral setback, and I’ve no doubt they will feel absolutely gutted. But for those with longer memories and experiences, there will at least be the comfort of knowing that there was not so long ago a time when returning four TDs and just missing out on another two in Donegal with an increased overall vote would’ve been regarded as an unparalleled success.
But we are where we are, and there’s no room for complacency nor consolation prizes. Sinn Fein can take solace in the fact that 2007 reaffirmed the party’s unassailable position as leaders of the northern nationalist community; but the lesson of the past week is that republicans need to think long and hard about how to develop and expand the party’s appeal across the southern state.
In the 26 counties, there will be local government elections within the next two years, which should provide the impressively young panel of election candidates time to dust themselves down and prepare for the challenge of making that vital breakthrough in 2009 across the state.
Whilst it has been pointed out that Sinn Fein’s appeal and electoral return in the 26 counties broadly reflects the size and mandate of a party of Alliance Party stature in the north, the parallel ends there. The fact remains that small parties have increasingly played a critical, influential role in the governance of the southern state whilst the height of Alliance’s ambition in our new political framework would be to secure a solitary ministry- which in itself remains a somewhat fanciful ambition given their limited electoral appeal to date.
As the northern administration beds down, republican experiences of governance will grow as the lingering hostility to a post-IRA Sinn Fein fades in the 26 counties, factors which should better position the party to attract both first preferences/ transfers and, as crucially, willing coalition partners in the period of years ahead.
In this regard, it is instructive that, although Sinn Fein remain bitterly disappointed at the ‘miserly’ return of four TDs to Leinster House, Fianna Fail looks like being on the verge of entering into government with a party of 2 TDs coupled with a pocket of Independents.
With a distance of five years between today and the formation of the next administration, who would doubt that Sinn Fein would be courted by Fianna Fail if the electoral arithmetic remained the same after republicans had spent five years sharing power in the north and working in tandem with southern ministers in the North/South Ministerial Council?
So, my parting message to fellow republicans out there would be to take this one on the chin: don’t deny it’s a setback, but rather learn from the experience and get better prepared for the challenges that lie ahead.
Chris Donnelly @ 04:51 PM
A good post, but one that leaves a critical piece of analysis. The absence of strong, workable policy positions will also become apparent in the Six Counties as well. SF in North might not be able to withstand close scrutiny of their policies by the electorate either through time.
Water charges is one area where there will be a u-turn, just as Martin and Bairbre acted againt party policy and introduced costly private investment initiatives in both education and health.
Posted by on May 28, 2007 @ 06:20 PMThe language in this post is bizarre - “republicans” used throughout as an exact synonym for Sinn Féin.
Posted by on May 28, 2007 @ 06:42 PMLet’s hope that this is the beginning of the end of Sinn Fein, and that people recognise them for the terrorist scumbags that they are
Posted by on May 28, 2007 @ 06:49 PMSinn Fein’s electoral position in the North is no more unassailable than that of the SDLP a decade ago.
Posted by on May 28, 2007 @ 07:14 PMBad year for Republicans?
Not really. FF’s Leader oversaw the return of devolution in the North, and then pulled off a fine election win in the South.
A fine year from the Republican Party, not a rollercoaster in sight.
Posted by on May 28, 2007 @ 07:15 PMIndeed, an excellent, thoughtful and provocative post.
There needs to be a whole rethink across the radical left (for once, I’m being generous to SF in that inclusion).
The election went to the conservative-right for all sorts of reasons, but principally because “it’s the economy, stupid”. And it’s the bourgeoisie who go out and vote.
However, the Left needs to be planning for the resumption of normal service in the middle-term.
Furthermore, the centre-left is far too fragmented, and SF has little chance of establishing a stand-alone presence there. In any case, what is a “nationalist” party doing, trying to butt into our party?
It’s ironic, but Adams was, in his fuzzy and ineffectual way, echoing the real question: how do we ameliorate the social chasm between the haves and the hopeless? between the privileged and those on the wrong side of a two-tier health “service”, those who were not in on the property boom, those left behind, those who stumble off the educational ladder?
Posted by on May 28, 2007 @ 07:16 PMChris,
As a fan of Grizzly myself I was disappointed with his performance in the RTE debate. But I suppose all Mc Dowell had to do was mention Columbia and Gerry was going to be in trouble. It is one thing for Gerry not to mention his IRA past for whatever bizzarre reason he has but it is another not giving a credible explanation of what the hell was going on in Columbia?
Surely somebody in SF must realise that although the FARC may claim to be left wing they aint the kinda company to keep. Whoever sanctioned that operation should have been booted out - the fear must be that it was an Army council job. If and when that story is told those responsible for it in the south will be kicked out of office if they happen to be there. If that coincides with the next election you can forget it.
That is the first lesson SF should learn from this election - the botany story aint gonna wash even with lukewarm supporters like me.
Posted by on May 28, 2007 @ 07:58 PM143,000 1st preferences confirm that whilst the result was a setback, this was certainly not a wipe-out.
I sense a mood among our activists that they are up for the challenge of building on this base through hard,hard work at community level.
5 years down the line if we fail it won’t be for the want of trying.Posted by on May 28, 2007 @ 07:59 PMSuddenly 2016 seems awfully close. LOL!
Posted by on May 28, 2007 @ 08:06 PMJesus it’s a proud time to be Irish when the people of Ireland turn out in their masses to hand a ball-kicking to the Sinn Fein trash and grab squads.
Old Gerry had no idea what was going on in the rest of the island because he is a lazy bastard that thought he could just smile stupidly like he does and talk the same shite that he writes in the fucking bore me to death columns in rags that hold either a Sinn Fein agendas or where Sinn Fein hold the purse strings.
He looked stupid, he sounded stupid, but thankfully unlike the arseholes that live in the North the electorate in the South weren’t stupid enough to vote for the tosser.
Posted by on May 28, 2007 @ 08:10 PMThe Devil
You’re not Keith M in disguise per chance?
Posted by on May 28, 2007 @ 08:12 PMDon’t worry about it Gerry sure what do those bloody Mexicans know anyway?
You’re better up here anyway, where gangsterism is appreciated by the electorate.
Viva Northern Ireland eh?
Posted by on May 28, 2007 @ 08:13 PMWere Sinn Fein not invited onto ‘Questions & Answers’ tonight to “take it on the chin”?
Posted by on May 28, 2007 @ 08:47 PMWhy dont the people who represent the bile-filled sinn fein critics on this site run in the south? They might be close to a lot of the west brit electorate.
Posted by on May 28, 2007 @ 08:52 PMgav belfast, have you not noticed the policy of the mainstream media in the south? keep sinn fein out of the public eye at all costs. Comes fro the likes of mr a o reilly,Sir Cathal goon, geraldine kennedy etc.
Posted by on May 28, 2007 @ 08:56 PMWere they not invited to take part, or did they shy away?
Maybe they’re all to busy taking their UK Bank Holiday.
Posted by on May 28, 2007 @ 09:01 PMi imagine they would have taken part if invited!
Posted by on May 28, 2007 @ 09:02 PMone of your heroes is speakin gav
Posted by on May 28, 2007 @ 09:04 PMI’m watching the programme about Hillsborough on BBC ONE NI. Wendy Austin is a good presenter / journalist, but a hero?
Posted by on May 28, 2007 @ 09:07 PMChris your alliance party analogy falls short. SF have moved from the left to centre politics, but looking at Gerry on RTE the other evening was embarrassing,he didn’t know if he was left or up the left, and all the dusting down in the world won’t cover that up. Not only the Columbia story, but jumping in there without even being asked, and claiming he drew the average industrial wage was gonna come back to bite him. If McDowell hadn’t done it, the newspapers would have jumped all over it. He got off light. Truly if you came away thinking Gerry did ok, maybe you were tired, it was late. You can’t claim he knew what he was talking about.
The southern people may like him, maybe even admire him in many ways, but that doesn’t mean they want him in government. It’s going to take a long time to forget the past and see SF post IRA. It may never happen. Your post is depending upon things staying good for SF whilst in power in the north. Can’t see that happening, this time they will be judged on their policies, not the constitutional question and lets face it they haven’t done to good on policies in the past. They were always a safe pair of hands when in power for the status quo.
Posted by on May 28, 2007 @ 09:08 PMgood man gav. im going to bed. oiche mhaith
Posted by on May 28, 2007 @ 09:10 PMHe looked stupid, he sounded stupid, but thankfully unlike the arseholes that live in the North the electorate in the South weren’t stupid enough to vote for the tosser.
Yes ‘The Devil’, you instead voted for the man of the people, soon to be indicted in one of your interminable tribunals (or at least would be if there was any justice in your attempt at a State. One would think you might have learnt your lesson after the whole Charlie Haughey thing. Get the bailer twine and that Toyota Starlet out of the mothballs you might be needing them sooner than you think.
Posted by on May 28, 2007 @ 09:21 PMThis poster accepts that SF are to the South what Alliance is to the North. Maybe now (though I doubt it) SF will rein in its triumphalist yob element and show a bit more respect to Alliance (and other opponents) in the North.
Posted by on May 28, 2007 @ 09:51 PMChris writes :
The post- Count media consensus that Adams somehow got battered by Michael McDowell conveniently ignores the fact that McDowell lost his own seat and that of ¾ of his party in this election- hardly the spoils of victory.
How does the fact that McDowell lost detract from the point that he hammered Adams in this debate ?
Adams didn’t actually stand for election. Maybe he should have stood against McDowell and we could have seen then exactly where we stand on the matter.
The fixation you guys have with McD borders on obsession. This is a party which went into the vote with a smaller proportion of the vote than SF, and yet you guys had your pals and media attack dogs constantly going at the guy, instead of ignoring him as an upstart.
Whilst it has been pointed out that Sinn Fein’s appeal and electoral return in the 26 counties broadly reflects the size and mandate of a party of Alliance Party stature in the north, the parallel ends there. The fact remains that small parties have increasingly played a critical, influential role in the governance of the southern state whilst the height of Alliance’s ambition in our new political framework would be to secure a solitary ministry- which in itself remains a somewhat fanciful ambition given their limited electoral appeal to date.
This is all to do with the mechanics of the STV system. In the case of the RoI, everyone hates Sinn Fein so nobody wants to go into government with them. In NI, everyone hates Sinn Fein, but the political setup forces people to go into government with them. It may be considered convenient by some people that SF opposes ending a forced coalition in NI, whereas Alliance supports it.
Political parties come and go, Chris. There was a time when Alliance had ~15% of the vote up here; and there was a time when SF languished below 10%. In the same way that you have overestimated your hand in the RoI (although I think the way you are confronting it is noble and pragmatic), I think that in time you will also be seen to have overestimated your vote in NI because you are banking on your stewardship of the Peace Process (tm) sustaining you in power.
Sinn Fein is in serious danger of suffering from the Gorbachev effect; you can claim some credit for pacifying the IRA and paving the way to normal politics here, but will people want you to be the ones to take up the reins of power ?
Posted by on May 28, 2007 @ 09:55 PM“143,000 1st preferences confirm that whilst the result was a setback, this was certainly not a wipe-out.”
In this election SF recieved 6.9% of the entire 1st preferences which was less than one point (.04) of an increase since 2002 (when they had 6.5% of the 1st preferences). And of course they lost a seat this time around.
SF right now, will hold 2.4% of the power of the Dail.
I think it was a very big wipe-out. They did not move forward with an increase of seats but have moved backwards by losing a seat in the capital itself! SF has achieved very little to nothing and will have zero influence in the 26.
It is no one’s fault but SF’s fault by not offering policies and politicans that appealed to the voters of the 26.
Posted by on May 28, 2007 @ 10:02 PM
