Monday, April 16, 2007
Spin this one!?!
David Trimble, former leader of the UUP, is to join the Conservatives. A formal annoucement is expected tomorrow. There are rumours that another UU peer will follow suit in the near future.
Fair Deal @ 06:21 PM
Wouldn’t it have been better for Trimble to show some leadership and lead the battle within the UUP to re-establish the conservative & unionist party. There would be no better counterbalance to Sinn Fein trying to play this game in the Republic. Reg - the AGM is coming - are you listening?
Posted by on Apr 16, 2007 @ 07:28 PMWhat a sad loss to the UUP </irony>
Posted by on Apr 16, 2007 @ 07:36 PMSo then, after trashing one party by his leadership he joins another. I hope the Tories have made sure he has been house-trained.
I doubt he’ll ever get onto the Tory front bench.
In case you haven’t noticed I do not have a high opinion of the DTs
Posted by on Apr 16, 2007 @ 07:38 PMamusing, predictable, but ultimately sad
“Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way
The time is gone, the song is over,
Thought I’d something more to say.”Pink Floyd : Dark side of the Moon
Posted by on Apr 16, 2007 @ 07:39 PM“It’s my considered opinion that in the fullness of time, history will record the greatness of Trimble and it will be recorded at my expense”.
Ian Paisley 2009
Posted by on Apr 16, 2007 @ 07:49 PMPerhaps the rest of the party should follow him back into the Tory fold. It is probably the only way now for the Ulster Unionists to retain relevance. Being part of the national government would enable them to circumvent DUP dominance at Stormont and provide a counterbalance to a future Irish government containing Sinn Fein.
Posted by on Apr 16, 2007 @ 07:57 PMTrimble has been planning this since he reisigned as leader but had to wait until the election was over to avoid making things difficult for Reg. Then he had to wait for the dust to settle after the election to avoid it looking like an attack on Reg.
Now he’s gone. He’s always wanted to be a British minister and thinks the tories will be back under Cameron’s leadership. if so, they will probably make him a junior minister in the Lords. If there still is a Lords and if Cameron can get the tories back in.
I’d say there’s a slim chance of a Tory win next time round, with Brown enjoying enough of a honeymoon to see him through to a tiny majority win at the next General Election. If that’s the case, he would not have a chance of serving in a Tory government until six years from now - 2013 -at which point he will be 69. Lord Rooker is still a minister at the age of 66, but has served as a minister for a decade or so. I think it very unlikely that a future PM would appoint someone as a minister for the first time at the age of 69.
Yes, Trimble has be a “first” minister, but he didn’t get to do much and wasn’t much liked and in any case the electorate put him there. In the case of the Lords, a PM would have to select him for the position. Unlikely that Cameron would do it - and certainly not in any dept related to Northern Ireland.
Trimble must be gambling on the slim possibility that Cameron can actually defeat Brown just a year after Brown takes over from Blair. What are the chances of that? It can’t be ruled out, and a vain man desperate for a role in the world might well risk his dwindling political reputation on that eventality.
The good news for Northern Ireland is that Trimble’s currency here has fallen even more. He’s now well and truly an outsider.
But God help the Northern Ireland Conservatives.
Posted by on Apr 16, 2007 @ 08:03 PM‘Trimble must be gambling on the slim possibility that Cameron can actually defeat Brown just a year after Brown takes over from Blair. What are the chances of that?’
2/1 Odds-0n shot,Sam-maybe Trimble’s a more astute gambler than you think.
Posted by on Apr 16, 2007 @ 08:07 PM’Trimble must be gambling on the slim possibility that Cameron can actually defeat Brown just a year after Brown takes over from Blair. What are the chances of that?’
As the Commons have only just voted with 113 majority (March 7th) for an all-elected Lords, he’s also gambling that inertia will win out and he’ll have a seat at all.
Posted by on Apr 16, 2007 @ 08:13 PMSam,
I actually think we’re actually closer to having a hung parliament with an utterly paralyzed government than we have been in a long time; I think it will be much worse for Brown than it was for the Tories under Major. If the Conservatives, the Lib Dems, and the Scottish Nats all grab a handful of seats each, Labour’s majority is gone. 33 seats is all that it takes; I think the Tories should have no bother grabbing another 20 (they gained 33 last time) with the smaller parties at the very least gobbling up the remaining 13 (if not more).
Will the Lib Dems side with the Tories, or with Labour ? Will Labour form a pact with the SNP ? The NI MPs will also be able to swing things a bit.
I’d be willing to put down a wager that Brown is in for a rough first term. Short of Argentina trying to invade the Falklands again, I don’t think there’ll be much he’ll be able to do about it.
Posted by on Apr 16, 2007 @ 08:14 PMWonder where they’ll find him a ‘safe’ seat in which to stand . It won’t be in Northern Ireland nor in Scotland where Tories are an endangered species . Nor London unless it’s Chelsea /Kensington ?
Anyway it’ll be good for the Tories to have a former Unionist leader in their line up next time out . Should help them to lose even more of the Irish vote in England :)
Posted by on Apr 16, 2007 @ 08:21 PMWhen history comes to be written with 20-20 hindsight it will be Trimble who will be seen as the architect of the new dispensation in NI not Paisley.
He may not have had a winning personality/charisma for the NI Public but he had an intellect that could see were the future was in 1997, he just couldn’t communicate it to the masses, nor see the duplicity of Blair. (neither could Paisley come to that)
History will smile very, very kindly on him, will it on Paisley?
Posted by on Apr 16, 2007 @ 08:25 PMGreenflag
He doesn’t need a “safe” seat in the House of Commons. He’s a life peer in the House of Lords. Don’t know how long life peers will be able to rule in the House of Lords though - there’ll be new legislation so that all its members will be elected. But doubt if that will be before the next election.> Should help them to lose even more of the Irish vote in England :)
Agree!
Posted by on Apr 16, 2007 @ 08:26 PMFrustrated Democrat:
> History will smile very, very kindly on [Trimble], will it on Paisley?
History won’t have much to say at all on the temporary statelet called Northern Ireland. It will be just a decades-long hyphen in a footnote.
Posted by on Apr 16, 2007 @ 08:31 PMDoes anyone know if Trimble’s associate Paul Bew takes a party whip in the Lords?
Posted by on Apr 16, 2007 @ 08:32 PMA little off topic, but speaking of Hung parliaments on easter monday I was watching the 1992 general election on BBC Parliament (sad I know)and it showed Denis Murray saying that Joe Hendron would take the Labour whip if elected. Was this the case? If so, why is it no longer?
Posted by on Apr 16, 2007 @ 08:34 PMThis seems to be yet another death blow to the near-corpse that is the UUP. While of course despised among DUP hardliners and especially former UUP dissidents; David Trimble was a heavyweight personality who even on his worst day could pull in more votes than Reg Empey did 3 weeks ago. His loss will lead to yet more losing of support from Middle Ulster voters. The UUP was already dying but this will just make things go faster.
For a party to lose its only Nobel Prize winner is more than just “carelessness”; - its also perhaps not entirely unrelated to the exclusion of Alan McFarland from cabinet?? If Reg Empey thinks he can lead his party on Trimble’s old 50%+1 formula maybe he should think about the consequences.
The only bright side for UUP supporters on here is that there surely now will be a long overdue change of leader at the upcoming AGM. If ever there was a time for the mythical “grey suits of glengall street” to make an appearance and convince Reg to resign, this must be it. He cannot hope to carry on and win a leadership contest with the party in the state it is right now, although maybe he is even foolish enough to try.
I believe there will be a challenge even if Reg is the only candidate, and the matter will be forced to a vote.
Perhaps Reg may get less than 50% even standing against nobody, I wouldn’t be surprised with feelings running as high as they are among ordinary grassroots members.
Posted by on Apr 16, 2007 @ 08:36 PMBew sits as a cross-bencher.
Posted by on Apr 16, 2007 @ 08:37 PMI’d be interested in hearing what some residents in England (and particularly the SE) have to say about this. In NI we’re distant from the constituency politics and without the SE of England, without the tabloid press, with Iraq but with failing support in Scotland – Labour seem to be in serious trouble.
I’m far from convinced that Brown has the leadership in the bag. The press are having a go at him now, there’s no good news and his budgets are described as stealth tax (which they are). When Blair goes the press will be putting it about that Brown have been over-rated.
What has this to do with Trimble? Having known Trimble at Queens and his histrionics when McAleese passed him over – it’s clear that all Trimble cares about is his own self-deluded notion that he has something to tell us. He doesn’t. He’s a wasted politician given fantastic opportunities that he showed no capacity to deal with. He was out-flanked by a snowball throwing bigot who demonstrated a better sense of timing than Trimble could ever understand.
As a political strategist Trimble was a failure. He’s hanging on his Noble Prize for his final thread of credibility. What did he do with that cheque by the way? At the time he “won” the prize – he’d no idea what to do with the money. Hume immediately invested his prize.
Cameron is the best chance the Tories have of winning the net election since ’97 (and before). What use would Cameron have for a bowler hated dancing partner to Paisley? What use would he have for a pedestrian mind? What use would he have for someone who couldn’t think of a charitable outlet for his own people? What use would Cameron have for a poisoned dwarf who destroyed his political party through cowardice?
Only the English broadsheets have time for Trimble – they won’t if he’s trying his bowler hat trick on their parade!
Posted by on Apr 16, 2007 @ 08:40 PMI admire your posts Comrade Stalin but I really have to disagree that there is any possibility of a Labour pact with the SNP. The bitter hatred, and I do not think that is too strong a word, between Salmond and Brown, Alexander, et al will make sure it never happens.
I think it is interesting that everyone here has assumed that Brown will be the next Prime Minister. I notice in the Sunday Times that Cameron’s friend and advisor, Michael Portillo, claims to believe that Milliband can beat Brown.
I don’t actually believe that he can and my instinct is that Portillo is being particularly Machiavellian.
If Milliband stands, he will lose but he will damage Brown more than any other candidate. His candidature will ensure that the schism between Blairite and Brownite is seen at its most pronounced and will make Brown a lame duck PM regardless of whatever pathetic majority he has.
Of course, Portillo doesn’t really want Miliband to win the Labour leadership as I think the modernising Tories fear him more than anyone else.
For what it is worth, I think Brown will sneak past Cameron for the simple reason that, barring an economic disaster between now and then, people have felt relatively well off under the Labour government.
While they have been fleeced in many ways, it has been done stealthily and cleverly in such a way to keep inflation low and thus to keep interest rates low.
I propose that, barring a massive disaster elsewhere, no British government that has kept interest rates low for so long will ever be voted out of government.
Such is the state of the housing market, that more people now than ever before understand the danger of high interest rates.
Imagine a leaflet pitched to the 25-40 year old voters:Do you remember when interest rates hit 15 per cent? If that happened today the average monthly mortgage payment would go up by £300. The Tories did that in 1992. Do not let them do it again.
Posted by on Apr 16, 2007 @ 08:44 PMAny one any info or thoughts as to how this plays into the upcoming UUC. Can we assume that McFarland’s absence from any of the UUP posts announced means that he refused what he was offered (presumably short of Minister). Does this weaken any challenge he would make ie being seen to be motivated through concern for his own position only? Will he challenge and when would he have to announce? Have candidates been announced for the UUP Party Officer elections?
Posted by on Apr 16, 2007 @ 08:46 PMSome serious sour grapes here. What difference does it make what he does? History will treat him kindly and the recollection of De Valera’s comment on Collins is worth mentioning. As for Trimble wanting to be able to be more than an one trick pony like most of NI politics must be appealing. As for a fully elected House of Lords - it will take the guts of twenty five years to get this type of legislation through. As for the SDLP reference on voting with Labour - by and large the SDLP vote with Labour - with the notable exception of Gerry Fitt bringing down the Labour Government in 1979. None of this really matters -
Posted by on Apr 16, 2007 @ 08:46 PMTrimble is only of use to the Conservatives if, as a Conservative, he wins back his Westminster seat at the next election. And what are the chances of that?
Posted by on Apr 16, 2007 @ 08:48 PMRubicon
I do remember Hume saying that he had given a significant amount of his Noble Prize money to charity, thus throwing a very uncomfortable spotlight on to the tightwad Trimble.
Trimble really isn’t so stupid that he doesn’t know what to do with £400k.
He has/had a huge house in Lisburn which has probably decupled in value since he bought it.Posted by on Apr 16, 2007 @ 08:49 PMWhat Unioinsts dont seem to get is that at a delicate time for their relationship with the rest of the uk they have replaced a secular articulate professional politician - who was widely respected, with one who the people of the uk regard as clerical bigotted and unbritish.
Posted by on Apr 16, 2007 @ 08:52 PM
