Sunday, March 02, 2008
Slugger reader survey
Iain Dale is running a survey to see how readers rate various politicians. O’Neill is canvassing a bit.
I’ve done a short one for Slugger, with a couple of questions to see what the reader profile of this blog is, and a similar rating survey on about 50 of our local representatives. Try to answer honestly and not based on your party political preferences - that way we might end up with something useful!
UPDATE - as I haven’t forked out for the pay for account, there is a limit of 100 responses. About 2/3 done now.
UPDATE 2 - results below the fold. A sample of 100 is tiny. That with other factors means, don’t take too much from it. It’s not so much useful as interesting.
1. Where are you registered to vote (or, if not registered, where are you normally resident)
Not really important enough to bother publishing. Suffice to say, I’m pleased to see a good spread across Northern Ireland, slightly South and East Belfast heavy (those two being in the top three options in the drop down box. Conclusion - laziness).
2. How often do you read Slugger?
Looks a bit like a Russian Presidential election result
Several times a day 60.8%
Once a day 23.7%
13 or 4 times a week 13.4%
Once a week 2.1%
A few times a month 0%
Quite rarely 0%
3. Which party got your first preference vote in the 2007 Assembly elections?
First figure is the percentage, second is the raw number of respondents
DUP 15.8% 15
Sinn Fein 12.6% 12
UUP 13.7% 13
SDLP 12.6% 12
Alliance 12.6% 12
Independent 0.0% 0
Green 5.3% 5
UKUP 3.2% 3
PUP 2.1% 2
Conservative 2.1% 2
RSF 0.0% 0
SEA 0.0% 0
UKIP 0.0% 0
Other 3.2% 3
Did not vote/Don’t remember 16.8% 16
4. Please rate the performance of following Northern Ireland politicians since devolution in May 2007 on a scale of 1 to 10 where one is very poor and 10 is very good. Be honest and dispassionate!
Placed in rank order - based on 93 responses. I regret including John Barry, it was unfair. I think in certain instances, and he is one, people rated low owing to not having heard of them. That was a mistake on my part. Also this is quite DUP heavy and a little SDLP light.
Margaret Ritchie 7.43
Peter Robinson 6.67
Naomi Long 6.15
David Ford 5.99
Danny Kennedy 5.85
Martin McGuinness 5.71
Ian Paisley 5.54
Nigel Dodds 5.50
Sammy Wilson 5.42
Arlene Foster 5.38
Anna Lo 5.22
William Hay 5.17
Declan O’Loan 5.15
Basil McCrea 5.11
Michael McGimpsey 5.05
Mark Durkan 5.04
Sir Reg Empey 5.03
Jeffrey Donaldson 4.99
Alban Maginness 4.99
John Dallat 4.97
Conor Murphy 4.85
Michelle Gildernew 4.83
John McAllister 4.71
Alasdair McDonnell 4.67
Gregory Campbell 4.66
Tom Elliott 4.62
Fred Cobain 4.60
Stephen Farry 4.56
Lady Hermon 4.46
Alan McFarland 4.46
Alex Maskey 4.43
Eddie McGrady 4.38
Iris Robinson 4.37
Gerry Kelly 4.30
Alex Attwood 4.27
Barry McElduff 4.24
Brian Wilson 4.22
Dawn Purvis 4.21
Michelle McIlveen 4.10
Mitchel McLaughlin 3.99
David McClarty 3.95
Pat Doherty 3.93
David Simpson 3.90
Gerry Adams 3.89
Francie Molloy 3.87
Kieran Deeny 3.79
Edwin Poots 3.61
Jimmy Spratt 3.54
Paul Goggins 3.52
David Burnside 3.50
Shaun Woodward 3.49
Martina Anderson 3.41
Leslie Cree 3.38
John Barry 2.98
William McCrea 2.90
Caitriona Ruane 2.37
Ian Paisley Jnr 2.19
Right at the bottom are Paisley Jnr, Ruane and William McCrea. The raw numbers directly below are the percentage and then raw number of responses for each rank from 1 through 10 and don’t know on the far right. The conclusion (such as one can be arrived at from such a tiny sample) is that even their own party voters don’t rate their performances. Worth noting that 47 people ranked John Barry as don’t know. Just short of half.
Ian Paisley Jnr
58.9% (56) 15.8% (15) 8.4% (8) 2.1% (2) 5.3% (5) 2.1% (2) 2.1% (2) 2.1% (2) 0.0% (0) 2.1% (2) 1.1% (1)
Caitriona Ruane
54.7% (52) 10.5% (10) 7.4% (7) 10.5% (10) 4.2% (4) 3.2% (3) 2.1% (2) 1.1% (1) 2.1% (2) 1.1% (1) 3.2% (3)
William McCrea
26.3% (25) 15.8% (15) 16.8% (16) 11.6% (11) 9.5% (9) 6.3% (6) 1.1% (1) 0.0% (0) 1.1% (1) 0.0% (0) 11.6% (11)
5. If an election were held tomorrow, who would you vote for?
DUP 15.80% 15
Sinn Fein 12.60% 12
UUP 11.60% 11
SDLP 13.70% 13
Alliance 13.70% 13
Independent 1.10% 1
Green 5.30% 5
UKUP 0.00% 0
PUP 1.00% 1
Conservative 4.20% 4
RSF 0.00% 0
SEA 0.00% 0
UKIP 0.00% 0
Traditional Unionist Voice 6.30% 6
Other 5.30% 5
Would not vote 9.50% 9
6. How many Local Government districts do you think there should there be?
Personally, I reckon 1 was used as a “don’t know” option.
1 3.20% 3
7 35.80% 34
9 6.30% 6
11 25.30% 24
15 24.20% 23
26 5.30% 5
More than 26 0.00% 0
Michael Shilliday @ 03:58 PM
Pete
The interest is that it gives a little snapshot of the views of the Slugger commentators, rather than any wider “value”, surely?
Posted by on Mar 02, 2008 @ 11:32 PMKen
A self-selecting sample of a self-selecting sample compounds the inaccuracy.
Posted by on Mar 02, 2008 @ 11:41 PMYou’re assuming that its only useful to anyone for any use if it’s accurate to 3% of the population at large. Which isn’t true.
Posted by on Mar 02, 2008 @ 11:44 PMAw c’mon Pete - put your slide-rule, log tables and abacus away for a moment - the results are going to be at least as interesting as a self-selecting commentator posting on the site.
Do I hear you muttering “exactly!”?
Bah Humbug!
Posted by on Mar 03, 2008 @ 12:00 AMI think that Ritchie is an excellent minister-no surprises there- but in the survey I answered truthfully and some members of other parties have out-performed members of my own party.As ministers Murphy is doing a good job at DRD (not including the Quinn case)Poots is doing a decent job at DCAL (I marked him down because of his stance on Irish) David Ford is making a good fist of it as leader of a small opposition,would it be better if the opposition included sdlp + uup?
I’m not sure as this would undermine his role as he would no longer be the leader.Sammy Wilson as chair of education, Declan OLoan and Daithi Mackay ,Naomi Long,Dominic Bradley are all doing a decent job.As ministers Foster C+ Gildernew C ,The rest are anonymous as far as the public are concerned.Posted by on Mar 03, 2008 @ 12:04 AM“You’re assuming that its only useful to anyone for any use if it’s accurate to 3% of the population at large.”
It may be useful to others, for whatever purposes, but it’s not an accurate reflection of public opinion.
Posted by on Mar 03, 2008 @ 12:06 AMPete
Not to state the obvious, if I wanted to gain a snapshot of the views of slugger readers, I’d narrow my population from “everyone” to “slugger readers”. That isn’t “self selection”, that is narrowing scope.
Now, posting a survey up will be no means guarantee that I get a sufficiently random sample. There is however, a fairly consistent readership here, and this site is a fairly narrow niche. We can surmise it’s unlikely that people will randomly stumble on here and decide to fill in the survey. Second, in the matter of responders bias, we can also surmise that if people are motivated enough to fill out the comments box, then they’ll be similar motivated to fill out a survey.
So, without any grand claims of accuracy, even with regard to the limited scope, we can make an educated guess that we’re getting an interesting approximation of What Slugger Thinks. I wouldn’t suggest using it for scientific purposes, but I wouldn’t suggest there is no value to it at all.
Posted by on Mar 03, 2008 @ 12:07 AMOkay, Michael.
I will now qualify my quote.
“I find Peter Robinson highly suspect”
*addition*
because he said he would never find parity of esteem acceptable, yet here is today with Sinn Fein.
Thank-you.
Posted by on Mar 03, 2008 @ 12:07 AMYou should do a survey to see how many MLAs can engage in debate without reading off a script-some of which are repititious and boring and adds nothing to the cut and thrust of debate.
Posted by on Mar 03, 2008 @ 12:09 AM“So, without any grand claims of accuracy, even with regard to the limited scope, we can make an educated guess that we’re getting an interesting approximation of What Slugger Thinks.”
That’s precisely what you cannot claim, ken.
Posted by on Mar 03, 2008 @ 12:10 AM“David Ford is making a good fist of it as leader of a small opposition,would it be better if the opposition included sdlp + uup?”
Unlikely that David Ford would still be the leader then. Ah, absolute power and all that!
Posted by on Mar 03, 2008 @ 12:10 AMDC Numbers 17 uup 16 sdlp 7 alliance the point is that when the media are looking for an alternative view they go to Ford .If Empey and Durkan went into opposition it would reduce ford’s airtime,-it’s not rocket science
Posted by on Mar 03, 2008 @ 12:17 AMDC,
Have you a link or reference for that quote?
Posted by on Mar 03, 2008 @ 12:17 AMPeter Robinson says of parity of esteem it ‘is a cunning maxim behind which the republican minority argue that equality must be given, in terms of political outcome, to a minority vis-a-vis a majority.’
Peter Robinson 1995 ‘The Union under Fire’ - United Ireland Framework Page 4.
Posted by on Mar 03, 2008 @ 12:30 AMDanny, what’s your views on ASDA coming to Larne. Do you think it will draw in Tesco?
Posted by on Mar 03, 2008 @ 12:39 AMResults done.
Posted by on Mar 03, 2008 @ 01:08 AMWilliam Hay 5.17
Flip people must be as pissed as what I am.
Posted by on Mar 03, 2008 @ 01:12 AMGerry Adams - out of sight out of mind?
Posted by on Mar 03, 2008 @ 01:14 AMPete
“That’s precisely what you cannot claim, ken.”
Unless you state your simplifying assumptions. Like I did. If you want to convince me otherwise: how many unique hits does slugger take daily / weekly? Roughly how many unique commentators does it get over similar periods?
Posted by on Mar 03, 2008 @ 01:20 AMRe Gerry Adams, totally agree. I rated him as ‘don’t know’ as I really don’t know.
It was a fairly Alliance-centric response in relation to the wider and indeed very restrictive electoral-strength. But, anyway, given that response and inside the limits of this survey it would seem to show that Naomi Long is favoured over David Ford.
Posted by on Mar 03, 2008 @ 01:21 AMThanks for that Michael, it really is quite an interesting snapshot. The results broadly follow the way I voted.
I had been thinking about this area for a while now, and how aptitude and competence really can separate the men from the boys. I have been trying to gather thoughts on what makes certain players stand above the others, and I think that breadth of knowledge, dignity and composure are very much up there.
I gave Catriona a low vote on this, as I think her overall handling of her portfolio has been poor and reflects badly on both her party as well as the ability present and possible in Northern ireland. Similarly, how could you rate Junior highly, based on his willingness to play loose with our future by bargaining it for mere money and influence.
I think the importance of the snapshot is that in the fullness of time, our present narrow party affiliations will become less important and we will start to look and judge people on performance and abilitiy.
Its a good start.
Posted by on Mar 03, 2008 @ 08:14 AMsurprise surprise, the sdlp has more “posters” on here than.....
real life....
More people would vote sdlp rather than SF well theres a complete shocker!!
Maybe here in the Alice through the looking glass world, the land of make believe, the sdlp exist but in working class estates across the North of Ireland?
Lets not take the p***
Totally and utterly unrepresentative, a self satisfying ego trip by small party supporters without a chance in hell of ever being in power…
unless they jump, and join their natural brothers in the South..the Irish Labour Party…
Sorry forgot myself there, FF!
Posted by on Mar 03, 2008 @ 08:59 AMThis was interesting and while no one claims it was scientifically rigourous I think it probably beats the Sunday Independent polls hands down in that regard.
good idea for a post.Posted by on Mar 03, 2008 @ 10:43 AMI wonder is it possible to break down the numbers who voted 1s and 10s for a large percentage of candidates and see who they were giving their first preferences to i.e are they SF/DUP people etc. It might give an interesting perspective on how strongly polarised the posters are - do DUPers always knock SF/UUP etc and vice versa. Or is there a creeping recognition of the performance of the opposite numbers and a move away from the “that crowd is always bad no matter what” attitude.
its demanding a lot from the survey but who cares it might throw up something to think about.Posted by on Mar 03, 2008 @ 10:55 AMAye that could be interesting right enough.
Posted by on Mar 03, 2008 @ 11:07 AM
