Monday, May 14, 2007
Sinn Fein’s stock arguments for engaging Unionists?
Calton Radio has some interesting material, which they claim originates with the Sinn Fein Unionist outreach department. It’s an interesting (and characteristically robust) espousal of the case for re-unification. Some the figures are fascinating, though it’s not clear how the party’s own strangely protean economic policy itself addresses the statement that “we are spending 20% more than we create”. Look out for “the islands” too: an apparently freshly minted ‘unionist friendly’ term that appears to have just come into use since the deal was declared live.
Confirmation: Its a Basket Case - the 6 Counties Economy
1. 26 Counties – the IDA created 100 thousand jobs last year 2006. In the 6C - Only 95 thousand jobs created in the 10 year period called the Golden Years – never created more than that over a ten year period
2. In the 6C - 100 companies employ 26 thousand people - compared to 1000 companies employing 130 thousand people in the 26C
3. R&D investment – lowest in the 6C compared to England, Scotland, Wales or 26C
4. 6C as the lowest number of women entering business
5. Manufacturing business – decimated;
6. 9% of those employed are in defence and those jobs are under threat
7. The 6C economy is primarily service sector dominated – low wage, part time work.
8. Gross Disposal Income – GDI - second lowest across the Islands at 14%
9. Very low skilled levels in the 6C - 28% of population have no qualifications;
10. The result is that you have sectors that do not produce wealth – the economy is therefore a basket case - coupled with 30 years of infrastructure neglect.
11. Barnett formula – the allocation of money we get from the BG - is designed to bring 6C, Scotland and Wales together to level of per capital as in England – which is much lower.
12. Pump priming the economy – we are spending 20% more than we create.
13. North has the worst motor ways in Europe – lacks 4th in the worst world league tables.
14. Economic inactivity – the percentage of those at working age who are economically in-active - 28% not working or looking for work.
15. 11% of those at working age are on incapacity benefit
16. Net result of all of that is the depression – we need 140 thousand new jobs just to stand still.
17. No way forward for the North on its own – Even British Minister Hain says it’s unsustainable.
Mick Fealty @ 09:10 PM
“17 - No way forward for the North on its own – Even British Minister Hain says it’s unsustainable.”
Well now that Sinn Fein is in the corridor of power lets see what they can do with the economy, okay such fundamental British problems will still remain but surely they can create a reduction in what is offered up as statistics. But bear in mind that European money is on its way too, so ready steady go! Let’s see how OFMDFM do it.
I don’t really see the argument in the above because it is okay stating subvention statistics but where is the response as to a better way ahead other than more private capital encouragement; in contrast, this wont really be done on Sinn Fein’s principal of helping local small traders with tax cut incentives in a global market place of multni-nationals/corporate companies who seek aggrandisement from Government in order to set-up in the first place.
If I remember correctly the old NSDAP party had this included in its 25 points programme even though big business was bankrolling it and it was outdated socialist nonsense then and is certainly likely to fail in a globalised environment now.
Posted by on May 15, 2007 @ 12:02 AM“If the above mentioned document is true then I will go to bed sure that Republicanism is defeated. They lost the demograhic ‘war’ and they lost the terrorist war. Their attempts now rest on these economics.”
The demographic “war” is by no means over. Someone else here said it best when they said it was by no means guaranteed but it isn’t a Nationalist pipe dream either.
“Firstly the ‘facts’ and statistics are pretty specious - moreover those who crow about the Republic’s recent success should read an article in today’s Irish times by the former chief economist to the Republic’s Central Bank. He says recession is fast approaching. This is not something I want but I think informed judgement of the Republic’s Celtic Tiger can only be made once all the european money has stopped and the new economy has weathered a recession.”
All economists equivocate, so these figures are essentially good as any other for making a case. Dismissing them off hand is somewhat weak in comparison to getting your own figures, really. At any rate, the inarguable economic fact is that the Republic is vastly ahead of us and the gap is still getting bigger.
People have declaring doom for the Republic’s economy for many years: eventually they will get it right. the same can be said of the UK economy, and there seems absolutely no prospect of the North closing that gap regardless. It would take many years of growth differential, and the Republic simply has more weapons in its armory to deal with recession.
“Secondly - and it is not a subject I am about to get into but the Union is not purely about economics - no more than the desire for a Irish nation was ever lead by money”
No. But it was and is and important objection. Though, if you want to talk values, I think SF should be developing a playbook on that too. In terms of positions on social policy like abortion, the North is probably much closer to the South than it is to a secular UK. And what was the article linked here about Ireland having the last Protestant work ethic in Europe?
Identity is of course a tricky issue and I respect you may never be convinced other. But it is a mistake to think everyone cares as much as you or I. It is about time someone at least attempted to make some rational arguments to the other side. It’ll probably take many years even to persuade a few but a start needs to be made.
Unless you assume people should just be in tribal blocks forever?
Posted by on May 15, 2007 @ 12:03 AM“Firstly the ‘facts’ and statistics are pretty specious - moreover those who crow about the Republic’s recent success should read an article in today’s Irish times by the former chief economist to the Republic’s Central Bank. He says recession is fast approaching.
Yeah, house prices beginning to taper off big style - the Republic having bankrolled its infrastructure off the back of stamp duty and property related taxes is now finding this once useful instrument greatly blunted.
Posted by on May 15, 2007 @ 12:07 AM‘the inarguable economic fact is that the Republic is vastly ahead of us and the gap is still getting bigger.’
No argument there Kensei - the chief reason for this gap is almost certainly the pathetic miserable terrorist war waged by Gerry, Martin et al.
I guess there is a certain rationale in asking them to try to rectify some of the damge they didPosted by on May 15, 2007 @ 12:17 AM“...consider the idea that a story never ends and never begins. When a reporter has an idea for a story that should be reported, the discussion can begin online: what do we know, what do we want to know, what and whom do we ask? Then, as interviews and reporting get under way, in public, the public can add its knowledge and questions.”
Oh dear not more sandwich filling between what is clearly cheap white bread taken out of a blue and white stripey bag, the kinda stuff you take out to feed the pigeons with.
But it works well like a nice cheesey Daily Mirror story!
Posted by on May 15, 2007 @ 12:19 AM“Yeah, house prices beginning to taper off big style - the Republic having bankrolled its infrastructure off the back of stamp duty and property related taxes is now finding this once useful instrument greatly blunted.”
Thing is, if the Southern Housing market goes belly up then there will be a significant knock on effect here. The insane increases here are fueled, at least in part by Southern investment. It’s not impossible that it could coincide with UK interest rates hitting 6% and significant problems in the UK market to create a perfect storm.
Posted by on May 15, 2007 @ 12:21 AMFor reference, check out my post at the weekend on the good effects of economic bubbles.
DC, here’s the link for that ‘cheap filler’.
Posted by on May 15, 2007 @ 12:35 AMWell the roads in the South are obviously much better - Why else would folk spend so much time idling on them, taking in the view?
Gotto hand it to the Shinners though.
They strategise, they plan, they move.
And careerists are conspicuous by their absence; that industrial wage policy will pay off big time over the next ten years.
Posted by on May 15, 2007 @ 12:46 AM“ 9% of those employed are in defence and those jobs are under threat”
hmmm. So we can expect SF MLAs to lobby to protect these jobs?“that industrial wage policy will pay off big time over the next ten years.”
Yup we all believe that the declared accounts are the only monies in the Shinners..er..warchest. Just like we all believe they found the only printers who will do 5000 full colour posters for £9.99 at election time.Posted by on May 15, 2007 @ 08:43 AMSurely Sinn Fein lecturing the Unionists on the current economic shortcomings of Northern Ireland, given the role of their military wing played in the events that underpin those shortcomings, will only remind the people of the hateful character of Sinn Fein propaganda and their duplicity in profiting from violence. When a man breaks your windows and and his little brother comes round the next day to try and flog triple glazing, it will be a lot more than a ‘hardcore’ few that will be prepared to tell him where to put his business.
The fact that Sinn Fein imagine that the people could be motivated to abandon justice and their their principles for economic arguments (given the stock they put in the hunger strikers) is indicative of the wretched contempt they hold the Protestant community in. We abandoned justice for altogther higher motives, although I wonder, given Sinn feins Swagger about “unfinisjhed business” if this did not simply inspire more contempt.......
Posted by on May 15, 2007 @ 10:33 AMCalton. What a fantastic forum. It’s the only place where a topic on why the ROI is a fascist state can co-exist with a topic on the subtle differences between a nazi salute and the red had salute. Comic genius!!
Posted by on May 15, 2007 @ 11:42 AMTo be honest i don’t think unionists will care about these figures. If the unionist parties deliver for their people it will consolidate support and take votes back from the Alliance. Never mind losing votes to the SDLP or even SF!!
As well as for the unionist parties they will be more concerned with working and delivering with the assembly up and running. A republic will soon become the radical idea!!
Posted by on May 15, 2007 @ 12:11 PMHere are the few that I can comment on:
“1. 26 Counties – the IDA created 100 thousand jobs last year 2006. In the 6C - Only 95 thousand jobs created in the 10 year period called the Golden Years – never created more than that over a ten year period”
Unemployment is very low in both NI and RoI. How did the IDA create jobs for 6% of the working population in 1 year? Was unemployment in RoI so bad in 2005?
“2. In the 6C - 100 companies employ 26 thousand people - compared to 1000 companies employing 130 thousand people in the 26C”
So a typical NI company is twice the size of a typical RoI company - 260 employees to 130 employees per company.
Either someone is mixing sources to try and prove a point of this is a smear job by Carlton.
Posted by on May 15, 2007 @ 01:12 PMFor as long as one hundred of us remain alive, we shall never in any way consent to submit to the rule of the Irish. For it is not Glory we fight, but for freedom alone, which no man loses but with his life.
Better to die on your feet than live on your knees in an Irish Republic. We will never forsake the blue skies of Ulster for the grey mist of an Irish Republic.The DUP and its Lundy leadership may have tried to sell the loyalist people of Ulster down the river to Dublin but we will remain British and PROUD.
IRA/SF may try and extend a false hand of friendship to our people, but when you know that there is a knife in the other hand ready to be buried in your back, only a fool would take that hand of friendship.
Quis Separabit.Posted by on May 15, 2007 @ 01:38 PM“Unemployment is very low in both NI and RoI. How did the IDA create jobs for 6% of the working population in 1 year? Was unemployment in RoI so bad in 2005?”
Have you heard of immigrants DK?
Posted by on May 15, 2007 @ 01:44 PM““2. In the 6C - 100 companies employ 26 thousand people - compared to 1000 companies employing 130 thousand people in the 26C”
So a typical NI company is twice the size of a typical RoI company - 260 employees to 130 employees per company. “
Er, how many times does the NI population go into the ROI population again? I’d hate to think you weren’t making a valid comparison even by the most basicist of basic measures.
Posted by on May 15, 2007 @ 01:56 PMso what would True British Loyalist’s vision for the way forward be??
This should be interesting....
Posted by on May 15, 2007 @ 02:31 PMMy vision of the way forward would not envolve sitting in government with IRA/SF. If Bertie Aherne wouldn’t share power with IRA/SF why should we be subject to child killers and apologists of child killers in government? The way ahead for Ulster is simple. A one man one vote election system that does not envolve IRA/SF, an oath to be a loyal subject of HM the Queen and Her Goverment in London, and stong links with the British Commonwealth.
IRA/SF child killers should not be allowed to stand in a democratic elected assembly never mind hold key positions within that assembly.Posted by on May 15, 2007 @ 02:50 PMTBL:
Wow - how come nobody thought of that already?
You sir, are a genius. A plan like that is bound to work!!
Posted by on May 15, 2007 @ 02:57 PMFlip go tell someone quick and while your at it inform all those who voted for SF that they don’t count even though it’s a , “one man one vote election system”.
TBL, whether you like it or not, the Unionist people are not the masters in their own house and must wake up to the fact that as a majority population we can still make this country work while including those of another ilk. Instead wake up and realise that to get results we need to be in there working govt and strengthening the unionist position.
Unfortunatley Bob McCartney stood on the mandate of,
“IRA/SF child killers should not be allowed to stand in a democratic elected assembly never mind hold key positions within that assembly.”
and now he is out weeding the garden somewhere, after not getting enough votes across SIX constituencies to get elected never mind one. While i would love your idea to be real, we are never going back to the Carson days. Make and build Ulster to work now and secure the union for all.
Posted by on May 15, 2007 @ 03:12 PMAlso i would hold your breath with Bertie down south. He’s not looking to give up power that easy!
Posted by on May 15, 2007 @ 03:13 PMBetter to die on your feet than live on your knees in an Irish Republic. We will never forsake the blue skies of Ulster for the grey mist of an Irish Republic.
That’s the funniest thing I’ve read on here in a long time.
Posted by on May 15, 2007 @ 03:45 PMWhen the “26 counties” were a basket case, a third of trade with the island was done with the North, and the UK had the highest per capita income in Europe, was that an argument for the Republic to give up and seek re-union with Britain?
Protestants want unity with Britain. Catholics don’t. Economic statistics aren’t going to change that overnight.
It’s a good case for sorting out the “basket case”, mind. SF is in government and, on its own terms, must now deliver.
Posted by on May 15, 2007 @ 03:50 PMBigger Picture,
Presumably our true blues’ main tactic is to confuse the rhetoric of assorted Loyalist organisations,However it really should be noted that the economic growth in the Republic was stimulated, to a significant degree, by the liberalisation and reduction of state taxation and regulation of investment / business and by the acceptance of monetary assistance from an international body (the EU).
Wealth and private equity were generated in the private sector by private hands, an economic phenomenon that Sinn Feins’ policy would seriously retard, and one that only private individuals and companies, rather than the state or the ‘nation’ or even blustering politicians, can take credit for.
Also the idea of Foreign monetary investment (including that accrued from the UK taxpayers in the North) from the EU is surely against the spirit of the “racially and culturally distinct socialist Republic” (Bobby Sands)In this context Sinn Fein’s attempting to gain political capital, (in favour of a unitary Irish state - which, incidentally, the SF always told us would be totally different to the state of the Republic of Ireland in its 26 County parameters, both in social and economic terms.... but that’s another ideal worth Bobby Sands dieing for that we seem to have forgotten all about),seems at best silly , the functions of the state as proclaimed by the Irish constitution, (’to cherish the children’) is that it would care for all it citizens equally and (by implication) defend the poor, something that has again been marginalised by progress.The sucess of the south is not the acheivment of the southern state. If anything Sinn Fein can only claim the republic as attractive to others in that the values of those who established it have been bypassed in all but rhetoric and the ‘Catholic nation’ reduced beyond recognition, hardly something for a ‘nationalist’ party to crow about
If anything the increase in prosperity is the best case against traditional Irish Nationalism , the socialist republic and by extension its champions in Sinn Fein, which I suppose is why they abandoned the ideals they killed and to a much lesser degree suffered mildly / sacrificed the gullible (Bobby again) for, and instead appealed to the people of the South on populist terms and became paid members of Her Majesty’s Government in Northern Ireland.All that’s left now is insensitivity to the bereaved, obnoxious accolading of murders and sadists, and the occasional wee pamphlet telling us why an Irish Nation doing the exact opposite of everything Sinn Fein ever professed (and practising very British economics) is an improvement on its recent past or indeed on a state where their noxious presence has had much deeper destructive effects.
Well woo - hoo.
Anyone listening to a nationalistic socalist party crowing about an ecomnomic boon based largely on private capital in a country where they had marginal influence and adopted a stance contray to favourable market conditions to the capitalist, making a childish and secterian boasts like this, and being stupid enough to think this could serve any purpose other than remind people what a shameless bunch of hypocrites they are, should not try to formulate opinions.
Posted by on May 15, 2007 @ 04:26 PMIJP
not all Protestants see the union as the most important thing in life. I certainly have an affection for it. However, I also cherish my Irish identity. I could certainly consider unification under certain circumstances. Economics would play a part as would guarantees that respect my British identity supported by institutional structures that recognised the special and positive relationship that the island of Ireland has with Great Britain.
In the end, I am not particularily bothered either way. I am more interested in living in a society where people respect and support each other. The seat of administration should not be a block to achieving that.
Posted by on May 15, 2007 @ 04:30 PM
