Monday, May 21, 2007
Sinn Fein’s ones to watch
With the Leinster House D-Day less than 72 hours away, I thought I’d run down the list of Sinn Fein candidates worth watching when the counting begins on Friday.
Sinn Fein enter the election with 5 TDs, and hopes are obviously high that the number returning will represent a significant advance on that figure. The list I’ve made is from my own observations and stretches from those whose failure to get elected would represent a disappointing turnout for the party to those whose elections would be contingent on a slight underestimation of the party’s expected performance in the polls to date.
For the record, I’m putting my neck on the line and going for a nice figure of 10 seats as a great return for the party; enough to establish Sinn Fein firmly as the fourth largest party in Leinster House and a possible kingmaker in the time ahead.
Here’s my list of ones to watch. If you’re a republican (or even someone who can’t stand the sight of us) the election of these individuals will indicate whether or not Sinn Fein are going to make that extra breakthrough this time around.
The Returning Incumbents (1-5)
All 5 of Sinn Fein’s incumbent TDs should prove too strong to be ousted, if the bookies are to be believed.
Caoimhin O’Caolaoin (Cavan/Monaghan- 5 seater)
Arthur Morgan (Louth- 4 seater)
Aengus O’Snodaigh (Dublin SC- 5 seater)
Sean Crowe (Dublin SW- 4 seater)
Martin Ferris (Kerry Nth- 3 seater)
Those ‘Well-Fancied’ (6-10)
Sinn Fein are tipped to take at least one- and by many- two seats in Donegal between the two constituencies, whilst the other heavily fancied candidates are to be found in Dublin.
Mary- Lou McDonald (Dublin Cntrl- 4 seater)
Pearse Doherty (Donegal SW- 3 seater)
Padraig MacLochlainn (Donegal NE- 3 seater)
Larry O’Toole (Dublin NE- 3 seater)
Dessie Ellis (Dublin NW- 3 seater)
The Potential Surprise Outsiders (11-16)
Whilst the party is running candidates in 41 of the 43 constituencies across the state, it is in these six constituencies that the party will stand to benefit in terms of new seats from a slight increase in party support on polling day.
Joe Reilly (Meath West- 3 seater)
Joanne Spain (Dublin Mid-West- 4 seater)
John Dwyer (Wexford- 5 seater)
Jonathan O’Brien (Cork Nth Central- 4 seater)
Sean McManus (Sligo/ West Leitrim- 3 seater)
David Cullinane (Waterford- 4 seater)
Chris Donnelly @ 06:58 PM
Chris a chara,
Your post has an error.
Daniel Callanan is from Galway.
Former Ógra activist David Cullinane is the Waterford SF candidate.
Posted by on May 21, 2007 @ 08:45 PMI would add David Cullinane (Waterford 4 seater) to the outsiders list and maybe Brian Stanley (Laois/Offaly 5 seater) at the very bottom.
Posted by on May 21, 2007 @ 08:46 PMÁr ndóigh, dúirt Daniel Callanan nach seasfaidh sé i nGaillimh Thiar, mar gheall nach raibh a dhóthain Ghaeilge aige, i measc cúiseanna eile.
Posted by on May 21, 2007 @ 08:54 PMoops- changing that now.
Ta!
Posted by on May 21, 2007 @ 08:56 PM“A great return for the party”
They may have timed there rise in the Republic’s politics too late - with Grizzly ( their star turn) getting older and the party more mainstream not sure where the appeal for further growth at next election will come from.
Posted by on May 21, 2007 @ 09:20 PMI believe that the 11-16 seats will probably be too much althoygh I do have a few quid on 11 seats, with Joanne Spain being my 11th seat.
However I firmly believe that up to 15 are possible next time around depending on how much work is done on the ground and the raising of the profiles of the next generation of candidates.
Posted by on May 21, 2007 @ 09:46 PMI think some of those in the outsider group might get squeezed if the FF poll rating today was more than than an aberration. I understand Sean MacManus has not been well, and unable to canvass door to door. Big asks in Wexford and Cork North Central (now four seater down from five). Joe Reilly has a chance, but as highlighted in ‘05 that constituency split is particularly hard on him.
Some things should come loose though, and where it doesn’t it will put them into good positions for next time out.
Posted by on May 21, 2007 @ 09:48 PMMartin Kenny is also looking very strong in Roscommon/South Leitrim.
Posted by on May 21, 2007 @ 09:59 PMIf SF got into govt this time with FF the only ‘republican’ policy open to them - which does not require ‘consent’ - would be full voting right to Non Iron MPS but it would be interesting to see how if the other ‘republican party’ FF would agree to this as a price of governement. Then they would not have to wait until next time round to get to 15.
But of course the now have to take in account what the DUP might do in that event.
Posted by on May 21, 2007 @ 10:20 PMSlightly off topic, but Mary Harney on Paddy Power is coming in like a steamer on Grand National day to lose her seat : 13-8 11-8 5-4.
If she goes evens I’m lumpin on big time!Posted by on May 22, 2007 @ 12:19 AMWouldn’t agree with you Ulick, Martin Kenny will likely top the poll in the Liatroim half of the constituency, but he’ll poll very poorly in Roscommon…
Posted by on May 22, 2007 @ 06:47 AMmake believe !! Sf will most likely not be in government let me remind you work ers party had 10 seats and represented the same demographic if you dont get in to government and dont deliver to the most vulnerable and deprived with a load of promises (which are unrealistic anyway) they wont elect you again . Irish electoral history is full of extreme left groupings that do well in 1 or 2 elections and then fizzle away eg clann na poblachta and wp .fianna fail know this so tactically they wont bring them in as this can eat at their vote lets not forget sf are extremely unpopular among Irish 26 counties electorate anyway only 10 - 12 % of people want to see sf in govt
Posted by on May 22, 2007 @ 06:54 AMI’m not sure that SF has the least intention of staying on the extreme left (in fact, I don’t think you could describe them as that even now. All during the Northern Ireland Assembly election their representatives refused to give a position on corporation tax, at the time in the Republic they wanted it pushed up. Now they seem happy with it at the current lower rate. Then there was the fight with unions over water rates. I suspect like DUP and Trimble they have learned greatly from the WP’s earlier mistakes.
Posted by on May 22, 2007 @ 07:22 AMLet me tell you too - I do have rights - so I’ll not be voting Sinn Fein.
What are Sinn Fein at with their uncosted policies and publicity campaigns stereotyping what it once used to be like to be rural Irish in a vain attempt to connect with those Irish-conservatives who view a sea-change in Irish life as decadent.
Sinn Fein seem to be doing the same job the tourist board is doing in that its marketing its policy in line with the stereotypical traditional Ireland including all the little jiggery-pokery Irish music and little traits associated to former cultural-socialism; but, we don’t want this Northern ‘party’ exporting this defined concept into the South as we know what it means to be Irish without Gerry telling us.
If Sinn Fein do enter Government then the rest of us will have to hold our noses.
Posted by on May 22, 2007 @ 07:42 AMMick their policies as adams showed in the debate are’nt costed very well there is still alot of economic illiteracy ,as you know stormont has very limited power compared to the dail so I know that that comparison is used alot but it is’nt very applicable as stormonts powers are similar to that of a district council rather than a national parliament
Posted by on May 22, 2007 @ 07:50 AMWould Daithi Doolin not merit a mention as an outside chance for Dublin South East?
I’ll have a few squid on a double: 11 seats for SF and FF/Labour coalition….Posted by on May 22, 2007 @ 08:36 AMI live in dublin south east Keyser he has been like yourself everybodys heard of him but nobodys seen him. better of betting for rabbite as tanaiste
Posted by on May 22, 2007 @ 08:42 AMWhat are the two constituencies SF are not standing in?
Posted by on May 22, 2007 @ 08:47 AMthink Rabbite will go if the only option is coalition with FF. His demeanor on Q&As; last night looked like a man well p*ssed off with the pressures, with the repeated question of FF coalition, with FG making a hames of it, and with the electorate. Wouldn’t be surprised if Richard Bruton was to become Tanaiste…...
Posted by on May 22, 2007 @ 08:48 AM+What are the two constituencies SF are not standing in?
Posted by picador on May 22, 2007 @ 10:47 AM+
Kildare South (the land of Alan Dukes) is one of them… they had a candidate who later dropped out. I’ll look for the other constit w/o Shinners, altho’ I won’t be able to get a background.
I heard that Eoin O’Brion in Dun Laoghaire is ‘one to watch’. I believe he should be familiar to those in Antrim as he was elected there. Some are saying that Aengus OSnodaigh won’t have an easy election altho he should make it.Posted by on May 22, 2007 @ 01:14 PMSF are not standing in Limerick West and Cork North West.
Posted by on May 22, 2007 @ 01:16 PMLimerick West: Gerry Collins -land and previously had a PD elected in the 3 seater.
but Cork North West… Macroom and Ballingeary.. I was there in ‘81..!! I thought that “The Wind that Shakes the Barley” reflected the republicanism, and history of, in the area lightly. Shurely fertile ground for the Shinners? I think Gerry and Co should add ‘find a Cork NW candidate’ to their ‘list of things to do’ for next year.
Posted by on May 22, 2007 @ 01:59 PM* Wouldn’t agree with you Ulick, Martin Kenny will likely top the poll in the Liatroim half of the constituency, but he’ll poll very poorly in Roscommon…
Posted by Glensman on May 22, 2007 @ 08:47 AM*
agreed that SF’s Martin Kenny will do better in the Leitrim end based on the Ballinamore vote etc, but FF’s Ellis will loose votes from past “dealing” w the farmers and tribunal reports that Haughey gave him public money out of his leader’s expenses!
Roscommon FF voters, disgruntled with the inclusion of Ellis to the ticket, will have to give preference to someone.
Posted by on May 22, 2007 @ 02:17 PMI reckon 12 Seats. 10 above plus 2 from the following 4
McManus
Spain
Reilly
CullinaneTrivia question:
Was the last non council (ie MLA/MP/TD) seat that Sinn Fein lost that of Gerry Adams in 92?Cant remember any others. Some are predicting Ferris will lose his seat but I cant see any of the current TDs being in danger.
I would not rule out FF/SF government as FF know if they get back in this time it will be their last term before 5 years in opposition anyway so they wont be worried about a backlash.
Posted by on May 22, 2007 @ 02:40 PMI heard that Eoin O’Brion in Dun Laoghaire is ‘one to watch’. I believe he should be familiar to those in Antrim as he was elected there. Some are saying that Aengus OSnodaigh won’t have an easy election altho he should make it.
Posted by anonymous on May 22, 2007 @ 03:14 PM
Thought that Eoin O’Broin had left the party but there he is. Was a councillor on Belfast City Council, elected in North Belfast. Highly impressive speaker and knows his stuff. Did alot of work on the ground in North Belfast with regard to community relations and was always there to calm any trouble. Find it strange SF have not made him more prominent, very well educated and articulate. Wonder is the recent suggested tensions between North/South members regarding SF’s move to the centre would involve him, who always struck me as more ideologically left than just set on the national question.
As for Aengus O’Snodaigh, a strong vote in Crumlin/Kimmage area should see him through easily enough.
Posted by on May 22, 2007 @ 03:44 PM
