Friday, November 10, 2006
Sinn Fein dropping, SDLP holding ground…
El Blogador has some interesting figures from the Hearts and Minds poll that show the overall nationalist support going down. His own party, the SDLP is currently holding its own, but it shows Sinn Fein down by about 4 points.
The figures overall from 2005 were thus:
Sinn Féin: 24.32%
Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP): 17.51%.
This reveals that there has been a drop in the overall nationalist vote, with SF falling by four percentage points and the SDLP by roughly three-quarters of a percentage point. While the SF drop is of course good news for the SDLP (and possibly due to republican disillusionment with SF’s semi-commitment to policing), the SDLP is still not recapturing the votes it lost to Sinn Féin. However, the potential of SF suffering from ‘Stay At Home Syndrome’ similar to that endured by the SDLP, may indeed benefit the latter.
Mick Fealty @ 03:37 PM
Amaninthe pub
The 2005 Council result is the better indicator of real party support. Westminster always has a bit of over-estimation of a party’s support because the personality factor counts for more in how people vote eg in North Belfast the DUP got 46% of the westminster vote but only 37% of the party vote
Posted by on Nov 11, 2006 @ 07:37 PMPatsy McGlone id making big progress in Mid Ulster. Watch this space when the fisherman retires.
Posted by on Nov 12, 2006 @ 11:28 AMMcGlone will not make any progress in any forthcoming election. If there is an another election it would be more likely be SF 4 SDLP 1 DUP 1 seat. The SDLP are dead in East Tyrone and South Derry.
Posted by on Nov 12, 2006 @ 12:04 PMHere is Patsy McGlone’s website:
Posted by on Nov 12, 2006 @ 12:36 PMWhat does the relationship between percentage assessments of Unionist V Nationalist or Protestant V R.Catholic votes tell us for the future. When the population is 1.8 million will there be a huge numerical Protestant or Unionist majority? Do lots of R.catholics support the Union.
T.RuthPosted by on Nov 12, 2006 @ 05:37 PMFair Deal
Why won’t the DUP go out and debate the StAA in halls around the country?
They claim to represent the interests of all unionists, so why don’t they have open meeetings that all unionists can attend and ask questions.
Are they afraid McCartney will turn up and pose the questions for which he has been asking for answers.
The questions are simple and straightforward (see todays Sunday Life) yet I fear the answers may not be what the DUP are spinning to the public….....so should I wait in anticipation.
The overall answer seems to be that the GFA was a better deal for unionism than the StAA, unless the DUP are prepared to answer the questions clearly and unambiguously in public we won’t know….............will they answer the questions?
Posted by on Nov 12, 2006 @ 05:50 PMFrustrated Democrat
I suggest you ask the DUP
Posted by on Nov 12, 2006 @ 06:10 PMMaitiú ó garmaile
McGlone will not make any progress in any forthcoming election.
Patsy is already pulling his support base upwards and will be the fisherman’s successor.
Posted by on Nov 12, 2006 @ 06:17 PMFair points made by Chris and Mark, though it has to be said that the H&M poll 2002 was a more reliable indicator of the 2003 election than the Millward Brown poll taken in the first week of the campaign.
Considering the enormous time lag between these polls, it is almost impossible to add weighting for the kind of considerations that affect respondents disclosure of their voting intentions. And I would guess that those considerations have changed somewhat since then.
Even so my own working assumption (for what it is worth) is that there has been something approaching stasis from Nov 2002 until now within the Nationalist section of the Northern Irish polity. Last year Sinn Fein lost its forward momentum, and did not get the penetration of the middle class constituency that at least some of its supporters had been hoping for.
But I see no signs that the SDLP has so far done anything other than consolidate ground it already has. It is certainly not (as El Mat originally readily conceded) taking back numbers of those who left it for SF.
When it comes to a fight in March it is also hard to see where they can get gains, if things remain as they are. Indeed, it may be easier to spot SDLP seats that could be vulnerable in concerted push.
Dex,
I was away all weekend, so I didn’t see the offending remark. I’m not sure I would have intervened though, since boys (if not spelt bhoys) has long since been a euphemism for IRA volunteers. As someone else remarked, it is probably the least striking or memorable contribution to this threat since it is poor in content compared to others: particularly those I’ve mentioned above.
Quality should be the thing that people measure themselves up to, rather than ‘abuse’ be the focus of what should or should not be excluded.
Posted by on Nov 12, 2006 @ 07:06 PMAnd like everyone else you happily ignore the drop in DUP support indicated from this poll.
But hey, we all have agendas.
Posted by on Nov 12, 2006 @ 08:17 PMFair Deal,
‘1. I am not a “follower” nor believe in blind loyalty to a political organisation. Try it some time it is very liberating.’
Why does Mick list you as a ‘politco’ then?
If Pete with his bias gets an impartial status why are you with your bias but non-party membership tagged as a politico?
Either you or Pete should be shifted in the credits bar.
Posted by on Nov 12, 2006 @ 08:27 PMMark,
First: the poll has had about six threads so far and no doubt more to come. This one came from a link I slapped up last thing on Friday before I headed off for a blissfully domestic weekend.
Second: You’re developing a bit of an obsession here. The Politico tag is an enabling device that cuts people with an agenda free to blog whatever way they want, and not to be bound by a brand identity.
That should not though, constrict other bloggers from blogging what they see fit. Maybe it is an anachronism, and we should just pour everyone into the core team?
That way people maybe could more freely debate the integrity, fallacy, or whatever rather than guess what their agenda might be.
Posted by on Nov 12, 2006 @ 08:46 PM1. Fine. (I’m not surprised the anti-SF stuff came first. I’d love to see a broader review of the poll or analysis of the sections already raised with a focus on everyone)
2. Yes. About bloody time.
Posted by on Nov 12, 2006 @ 09:00 PMMick,
My problem on point 2 has always been about labelling and highlighting bloggers as biased politically while exempting at least one biased contributor from the net. If Fair-Deal is not a party member it seems like a partial system.
You should always have given every contributor the same standing IMNSHO.
(and you are right I was obsessive about it but eventually you thought about my point and seem to agree)
Posted by on Nov 12, 2006 @ 09:07 PMMark,
What exactly is anti Sinn Fein about this thread? I simply quoted another blogger, and noted his SDLP loyalties in doing so. There was plenty of space given for corrective perspectives, and plenty taken. It was the third (and latest) thread on the poll data.
The issue of competition between the SDLP and Sinn Fein is currently at the livelier end of NI politics. The DUP leadership was certainly more important, which may be why we covered it first!
Posted by on Nov 12, 2006 @ 09:19 PMMick-
Sure they’d yap too if we weren’t talking about them! You can’t win either way ;)
Posted by on Nov 12, 2006 @ 09:35 PMMark
I am not a member of a political party but I am far from shy about my viewpoint nor whom I vote for. On the definition of myself as a politico, I have no problem with it but thanks for the concern.
Posted by on Nov 12, 2006 @ 09:39 PMMick,
The poll has been treated as reflective (wrongly IMO as they never, ever are) but no mention was given to the drop in DUP support, I find that unsurprisingly partial.
The figures used to credit the headline and the blog make reference to a comparatives between the poll and previous election results but completely ignore a similar situation for the DUP and Unionism.
I’m saying it’s partial and biased because it highlighted a weak assessment of SF and neglected the almost identical position for the DUP/Unionism.
The figures are all there. You linked up the ones that supported an anti-SF position alone.
….but you claim you’ll come to the rest later…aye right.
(El Mat - address the topic, not me. Mick has rules he doesn’t implement around here)
Posted by on Nov 12, 2006 @ 09:48 PMI blame rising house prices for the SF/DUP falls. Begrudgery gets harder with your house making £100 a week.
Posted by on Nov 12, 2006 @ 09:54 PMI note we are drifting further and further from the featured topic… ;-)
Posted by on Nov 12, 2006 @ 10:05 PMIs the sdlp increase anything to do with the no. of local media interests people like Tom Kelly have ie newspapers and radio.
MID 106 carries pro sdlp stories/comments at a ratio of about 3:1 against all other parties.Posted by on Nov 13, 2006 @ 08:55 AMJim
There isn’t really an increase in the SDLP vote, just a slight fall in those saying they intend to vote for Sinn Fein.
But can you give us more on how you think that might work?
Posted by on Nov 13, 2006 @ 09:02 AM
