Monday, August 20, 2007
Power offers long (ish) odds on United Ireland…
Can’t see this market shipping too much money for Paddy Power, but fair play to them for offering it… For the optimistic nationalists amongst us, you can push the boat out for 2012 at 25/1 (maybe lib2016, reckons 2017 is a bargin at 20/1)… The shortest odds come in at 10/1 for 2027… and probably constitutes the ‘safest’ bet, but there are probably more profitable ways of tying your money up for twenty years… Evens looks to be a long way off… Thanks to Parci, for the heads up!
Mick Fealty @ 03:22 PM
>>Thanks to Parci, for the heads up!<<
Ah Parci fame at last!
>>he shortest odds come in at 10/1 for 2027… and probably constitutes the ‘safest’ bet<<
Who would have put a bet on Dr. No sitting in government with SF. Even at 100 to one few would have taken it. My bet is that it could happen a lot sooner than that without the major drama that we believe would occur if it happened the morra.
Posted by on Aug 20, 2007 @ 03:38 PMOk so a less than 10% chance of it happening by 2027?
Christ, that says it all.
Posted by on Aug 20, 2007 @ 03:40 PMShame its not on betfair.
I’d lay odds there at much better than 10/1 and be very happy to take anyone’s money (eventually).
Posted by on Aug 20, 2007 @ 03:42 PMAnd there ladies and gents we have the intractable issue summed up in the space of the first two posts....
Posted by on Aug 20, 2007 @ 03:43 PMNever trust the bookies - the references to one parliament on this island and to Britain having no claim here are the getout clauses.
We are after all talking about a Ruritanian nation which only discovered that it didn`t control the South a few years ago when they abolished the 1920 Act at least 70 years after De Valera made it nonsense. A country which still has ongoing scandals about a system of honours based on a defunct Empire.
In fact we´re already well down the road towards Irish unity with the DUP settling for a devolved parliament at Stormont as their consolation prise for the end of the union and Sinn Fein accepting the same as the price of Irish freedom.
Posted by on Aug 20, 2007 @ 03:58 PMIt would seem that late in the day lib2016 has stolen the “person to be pitied” prize for Monday.
Posted by on Aug 20, 2007 @ 04:06 PMIf you assume that you can get 8.5% per year on your money, your 1 pound would grow to over 5 pounds by 2027.
So the real odds you’d be getting for a UI by that date are less than 2-1 ! (That’s if you can find Paddy in 2027) :o)
Hint : Paddy might be the one living in the big house in South Dublin not caring what happens.
Posted by on Aug 20, 2007 @ 04:21 PMC’mon Interested, sure don’t know you that the wee fella from Sandy Row lodge who writes as Lib2016 is Ulster’s answer to Craig Brown? It’s hard to crack the recipe for pitch-perfect one-note monomaniacal paranoia and hysterical fantasy, but by gum, he has.
Posted by on Aug 20, 2007 @ 04:51 PMWill they take northern bank notes?
Posted by on Aug 20, 2007 @ 05:01 PMAhern,
Fifty years ago believers in a flat earth were taken as examples of craziness in action but some things improve with time and now we´ve reached the stage where a majority of Americans believe in creationism.
Here in Northern Ireland we have similar people who believe that one office in Holywood will replace 40,000 troops. Mad Maggie with her rants about ´Belfast is as British as Finchley´ lived long long ago and far far away. She´s not coming back.
Face it - the Democrats will be back in two years, the army has gone for all practical purposes bar a few ordinance people and formfillers, and traditional unionism has collapsed.
The games nearly over.
Posted by on Aug 20, 2007 @ 05:19 PMWhile I’m not entirely as optimistic as Lib concerning the road we’re on he’s right about this being a very sneaky bet. Powersharing in the north means that post unity there will probably be some form of local assesmbly for what used to be NI for quite some time. Also if the north remained in the commonwealth would that mean you’ve lost on the second part of the bet? Or what if northern TDs retained speaking rights at West Minster? Unionism should not be expected to give up these measures in a United Ireland and so you’re not likely to win the bet!
Posted by on Aug 20, 2007 @ 05:39 PMThe truly Swiftian stroke there by the genius of Schomberg Drive (c’mon Bobby boy! admit it’s you - we’ve rumbled ya!) was of course that tiny little detail in the rant where he faux-accidentally addressed me as ‘Ahern’. Thereby bringing into view a whole suggested world of resentful bitterness against the corrupt partitionist sell-outs in the Free State. Such economy of style! Tip top stuff today - more! more!
Posted by on Aug 20, 2007 @ 05:42 PM“Ok so a less than 10% chance of it happening by 2027?
Christ, that says it all.”
Yes, it’s official, in 2027 a number will be picked between 1 and 10, and if it isn’t the correct number there will be no United Ireland. That’s the way it works.
Posted by on Aug 20, 2007 @ 06:35 PMflaminglip
And if the correct number is picked there still will not be a UI because the majority of people in NI don’t like that number.
This will be a challenge to mathematicians to invent a number between 0 and 10 which does not already exist and which might express the wishes of the Majority.
Things are a bit more complicated than you think.Posted by on Aug 20, 2007 @ 07:28 PMI gave 5 to 1 against City beating United on Sunday. :-(
If political developments go the same way as the match at Wastelands, we could all end up as a colony of Papua New Guinea.
Posted by on Aug 20, 2007 @ 11:21 PMBarkin McGuinness claimed at the SF Ard Fheis in ‘97 “they would consider transitional arrangements"- looks like he’s in for a lot of transition.
The nationalist birth rate has flatlined and with catholic unionists making up a fair percentage of stoop voters- a combined catholic and protestant pro-union majority will survive for 2 generations yet
Who needs the paras when unionists can have the 39th infantry Irish Brigade with the PSNI on top of who they want on call in the UK…
Posted by on Aug 21, 2007 @ 12:36 AMlib
I do have to hand it to ya - either a brilliant comedian or a disturbed mind.The new MI5 HQ is nothing to do with replacing troops - troops which were only here on a temporary basis whilst they dealt with those nasty republicans - job done. The presence of extra troops in Northern Ireland was not underpinning the Union, in fact it was marking out NI as a place apart from other areas of the UK.
Now we have the normal compliment of troops here, just as it was pre-troubles, when NI was within the UK, just as it still is.
The fact that we also have a shiny new MI5 base about to open is simply an added extra.
But then of course, Sinn Fein have accepted a devolved British Assembly, where unionists have a veto over decisions on all internal and North-South decisions as the “price for freedom”. And no doubt Francie was playing his part for that ‘freedom’ too!
If traditional unionism has ‘collapsed’ then I’m not sure how I could describe the state of ‘traditional republicanism’. What exactly was the ‘war’ all for then?
BTW - we havent “reached” the stage where a majority of Americans believe in creationism. A majority always have. Only recently has there been any comment about it. (I say that not as any comment pro or anti creationism, but simply to correct your error).
Posted by on Aug 21, 2007 @ 08:38 AMBTW - we havent “reached” the stage where a majority of Americans believe in creationism.
The poor lost souls.
Creationism = Cretinism.
Posted by on Aug 21, 2007 @ 08:43 AMPaid,
If only I had known....
“I gave 5 to 1 against City beating United on Sunday.”
Posted by on Aug 21, 2007 @ 08:45 AMAsk Paddy power to index link a bet at 10-1 & see what they’ll say.
Because the 10-1 isn’t really 10-1 on a bet like this. PP hold the money for 20 years. 100 at 2007 will be worth what in 2027? 250, 300? - whatever the long term inflation rate is.
Say it’s 250 then the bet is 250 against 1000 i.e 4/1.
Posted by on Aug 21, 2007 @ 10:09 AMIt depends how united you want the island of Northern and the Republic of Ireland, e.g. some in Sinn Fein have given up the hope of securing all counties in NI and are trying to bring counties such as Londonderry and Fermanagh which have overwhelming Nationalist majoritys into the Republic this therefore would leave NI only a four county state although there would still be no UI.
Posted by on Aug 21, 2007 @ 10:14 AMAnyone claiming to know what things will look like in 20 years time is rather brave.
Posted by on Aug 21, 2007 @ 10:15 AM´Traditional republicanism´has been replaced by a more modern version which is ready and willing to compromise and to reassure unionists, especially unionists from more modest backgrounds, that they have nothing to fear and much to gain in any foreseeable UI.
The UUP attempted to stay in touch with British politics and destroyed themselves, torn apart by the realisation that England and Ireland are two separate nations. The DUP realised that they represent an Irish-based community with its own particular needs which needed addressing on their own terms rather than those of another nation.
The British will do what their senior partner tells them to. They will be leaving, in fact they´ve largely left now that the Army is away and the Assembly is up and running.
Posted by on Aug 21, 2007 @ 11:21 AMThe plan is progressing nicely *strokes head of cat*.
In tomorrow’s Sun there will be a free £20 coupon to be used on Paddy Power’s United Ireland bet.
Queue mad rush to the bookies… and a United Ireland for a snip!
Posted by on Aug 21, 2007 @ 11:34 AMMaybe Paddy Power ain’t the smartest bookies on the block. One of the games they had listed on their European Football weekend coupon last friday (which I had selected as one of my accumulators, incidentally) was Real Madrid v Athletico Madrid.
I lost the bet anyway, but as I subsequently found out, the Spanish League doesn’t even kick off until...NEXT F*CKING SUNDAY, YOU IDIOTS!
Posted by on Aug 21, 2007 @ 02:35 PM
