Wednesday, June 04, 2008
Postscript on the election ‘speculation’...
PS: With a deal in the bag, the election talk is now being officially denied by Sinn Fein. Yet, there was an awful lot of unattributable material appearing from somewhere yesterday at Stormont, at precisely the same time as Gerry Adams’ highly talented PR was talking to any journalist who moved. The thing about plausible deniability is that it has to be plausible to work.
Mick Fealty @ 04:42 PM
Pete - your point is well made. But please try and be Baconic and study the consequences.
Posted by on Jun 04, 2008 @ 08:45 PMDewi
“please try and be Baconic and study the consequences.”
I will.. when the consequences emerge.
The Baconian notes what the evidence is to date.
To do otherwise is to engage in futuring.
Posted by on Jun 04, 2008 @ 08:50 PMobserver,
‘Its probably remembering that over 50% of our wee country wont touch an ILA’
Where did you get that over 50% from ? Anyway you won’t have to touch it -just make sure it’s passed it into legislation - along with Ulster Scots . Nobody is forcing you to learn or read Irish . You will still be able to converse in Hiberno English with the rest of your fellow islanders on both islands . See how the Scots have depoliticised Scots Gaelic and the Welsh . Now there’s the example to follow instead of bloody minded thran stupidity :) The latter does not win friends nor influence people and is self defeating . But then I suppose that can be said of ‘unionism ’ generally on this island over the past 100 years .
Posted by on Jun 04, 2008 @ 09:00 PMWhoever thought that plan up has just succeeded in making the whole party look ineffectual, weak and incompetent.
Can’t wait to hear how this humiliation is spun.
Mark, you’re ignoring the capacity of true believers to read what they want out of anything that happens, as they are already doing. If you believe that the Unionists are a crowd of no-culture knuckle-dragging neandrathals who can hardly read and write, and Sinn Féin are the meanest, leanest, spinning machine that ever fought an election, then you can read a content-free Shanghai Communiqué of a statement as a victory every time.
Gearóid is now a destructive force for Sinn Féin. What do you do with your life when you’re the former future President of Ireland? Without a real job in either Stormont or Leinster House, and still feted as a living God by many, he has nothing to do all day but brood and tell himself how much better everything would be if he was in charge. The sooner the Shinners bundle him off on an extended US book promotion tour, the better for them. Although if he wanted to do something useful, he could actually use his clout to be a de facto mayor of West Belfast, banging heads together to try and reverse the spiraling crime rates, unending dependency, and rapid out-movement from the West of the city. At times he has seemed keen to do it - notably after the Holland and McGreevy murders. It is by far the most useful thing he could do with the rest of his career.
But Mark the issues are back on the table.
Billy, the issues were never off the table. In particular, the DUP were already rapidly moving towards compromise on the 11-plus. The Shinners threatened to pull the house down and bearded a less than enthusiastic Gordon Brown for the sake of a joint communiqué with the DUP promising to discuss things they were already discussing. Great victory. Was that another Stalingrad strategy?
the lack of DUP crowing, apart from the usual retards here, is telling.
Interesting point Dec, but maybe the DUP have actually learned something from the Trimble/Paisley jig after Drumcree One - i.e., that when you win on all issues of substance, it’s better to let your opponents walk away with their heads held high and self-respect. Because if you don’t then your opponents have no reason to stick to the deal and can bring the house down, and all your achievements with it.
The old joke about the Agreement was that the Unionists were too stupid to realise they’d won and the Shinners were too clever to tell them. Maybe in Robinson, Unionism finally has a leader with the wit to realise they’ve won and the political skills not to knock the apple cart over.
But it’s what politicians do, folks.
Only if they’re really useless politicians, Jenny.
Posted by on Jun 04, 2008 @ 09:00 PM“Its probaly worth remembering that over 50% of our wee country wont touch an ILA.” That may be the case at the moment Observer however demographics as with politics are, unfortunately from a Unionist perspective, fluid and not stagnate. It won’t be too far in the future when the arithmetic is no longer conducive to your argument. Bottom line is the Brits want out and the Brits play cricket, a favoured sport of our illustrious DFM I might add.
Posted by on Jun 04, 2008 @ 09:02 PMAnyway you won’t have to touch it -just make sure it’s passed it into legislation - along with Ulster Scots
NO THANKS
Posted by on Jun 04, 2008 @ 09:15 PMMick
That’s optics Billy. These things were never off the table. I’ve argued elsewhere that this gets SF of the SAA/AF hook. That’s a win. But it’s not a loss for the DUP either. Yep, a cheap Scarva stunt written right through it.
I don’‘t think it is a loss for the DUP but I can’t see what they’ve got out of it either so if SF have arrested the sense they’ll take whatever the DUP dishes out then it is a small win for them. If the need to address these issues has also been ramped up it is also a slight gain. The DUP could have spun it out indefinitely. They may still do. I don’t actually think any winners or losers can be called until the outcome of that process is done.
I think the spin is wrong though: this is a manufactured crisis. Another one is very easily manufactured if the DUP refuse to move on any of the outstanding issues. The option should remain open, if SF have any sense.
Pete
I’m sure if people want reminded they can simply look on every other thread you’ve posted on. I can write you a bot to spam the site, it would be quicker.
Posted by on Jun 04, 2008 @ 09:18 PMThat may be the case at the moment Observer however demographics as with politics are, unfortunately from a Unionist perspective, fluid and not stagnate.
makes no difference, thanks to the STA you`ll always need our agreement - or didnt gerry tell you that one?Posted by on Jun 04, 2008 @ 09:18 PMSammy
These issues should not be on or off the table but should have been passed into legislation, remind me what the date is again.Jenny
You wrote that “SF has too much to lose to upset what is now the statis quo” could you remind me exactly what the shinners; and more to the point their electorate has to loose. As it seems to me so far they have gained nothing new yet lost much of what they were promised.
It also looks like the shinners intend renegotiating what had already been claimed as done deals, or so Mr Adams and Marty Chuckle claimed in the past. Seems a weird way to carry on.
Posted by on Jun 04, 2008 @ 09:18 PM“makes no difference, thanks to the STA you`ll always need our agreement - or didnt gerry tell you that one?”
I think you’ll find your mistaken my friend when it comes to the constitutional postion of the north. For example the British and Irish Governments “affirm that if, in the future, the people of the island of Ireland exercise
their right of self-determination on the basis set out in sections (i) and (ii)
above to bring about a united Ireland, it will be a binding obligation on
both Governments to introduce and support in their respective Parliaments
legislation to give effect to that wish”. Sin e.Posted by on Jun 04, 2008 @ 09:24 PMMick Hall
It also looks like the shinners intend renegotiating what had already been claimed as done deals, or so Mr Adams and Marty Chuckle claimed in the past. Seems a weird way to carry on.
Quite. The logical consequence also seems to be that SF either have to get a win, or they have to pull down the Assembly. Anything else and they will have badly damaged themselves.
Posted by on Jun 04, 2008 @ 09:26 PMP.s. No Acht na Gaelige no stadium for “Our wee country”. Its called compromise which I know may be a hard concept for Unionists to understand but there you have it. We haven’t gone away you know, nor do we intend to.
Posted by on Jun 04, 2008 @ 09:27 PM#
“makes no difference, thanks to the STA you`ll always need our agreement - or didnt gerry tell you that one?”
I think you’ll find your mistaken my friend when it comes to the constitutional postion of the north. For example the British and Irish Governments “affirm that if, in the future, the people of the island of Ireland exercise
their right of self-determination on the basis set out in sections (i) and (ii)
above to bring about a united Ireland, it will be a binding obligation on
both Governments to introduce and support in their respective Parliaments
legislation to give effect to that wish”. Sin e.
Posted by Quagmire on Jun 04, 2008 @ 11:24 PM
Tell you what quagmire, hold your breath for that one lol
And dont talk of compromises, what has SF comrpomised on?Posted by on Jun 04, 2008 @ 09:31 PMJesus Christ. What a load of nonsense over sweet fuck all.
Posted by on Jun 04, 2008 @ 09:31 PMdon’’t think it is a loss for the DUP but I can’t see what they’ve got out of it either
The DUP weren’t looking for anything out of it.
The logical consequence also seems to be that SF either have to get a win, or they have to pull down the Assembly.
I’m sorry, ken, but that was the line that Sinn Féin put into the public domain themselves. On what basis did SF manufacture the crisis - that they would pull down the Executive if they didn’t get what they wanted. But in reality, they didn’t get what they wanted but they didn’t pull down the Executive either. Gearóid ends up looking like the little boy who cried wolf.
These issues should not be on or off the table but should have been passed into legislation, remind me what the date is again.
Don’t ask me to defend that squalid little deal at St. Andrew’s. We had nothing to do with it and I’m glad we didn’t.
Posted by on Jun 04, 2008 @ 09:36 PMKen
“I’m sure if people want reminded they can simply look on every other thread you’ve posted on. I can write you a bot to spam the site, it would be quicker.”
Where some remain ignorant, I merely seek to enlighten - again.
“Mick Hall
It also looks like the shinners intend renegotiating what had already been claimed as done deals, or so Mr Adams and Marty Chuckle claimed in the past. Seems a weird way to carry on.
Quite. The logical consequence also seems to be that SF either have to get a win, or they have to pull down the Assembly. Anything else and they will have badly damaged themselves.”
Good to see that you may have finally have become enlightened yourself.
Although that position ignores the previous promises of commitments.
Posted by on Jun 04, 2008 @ 09:38 PMGar, it’s actually been hugely interesting. Speaking for myself and none of the other ‘tards, I never thought for one moment, weak as SF’s inherent position is (military defeat allied to participation in British partitionist structures - whatever else that is, it isn’t the Republicanism they murdered for), that they would prove to be quite so politically incompetent. There’s only one rule in the big league - don’t make threats you can’t deliver on. And as most of knew all along, SF were so far from being able to deliver on this threat that their most slow witted drones are now infesting Slugger claiming that the utterly ineffectual threat was never made!
Posted by on Jun 04, 2008 @ 09:38 PMMick,
its a bit much to ask people to discuss the rather arcane point about briefings, I mean who gives a feck about that except journalists ? especially when the substantive news story has just broken.
As predicted earlier by myself and many others, no election but statement from Robbo indicating movement on P and J.
What is impressive about this story is that Non Iron can still can hold centre stage - and this is simply because peace has not settled in fully and the British will not allow it to slip back - well done to Gordo.
The constitutional and symbolic signifcance of
the administration of police and justice being controlled by Nationalists not to mention a Nationalsit appointed Attorney General ensures that the difficulty for many of supporting British adminstered law in Non Iron can be removed.Nationalists have waited since partition for this so a few more months should hopefully not be a problem. Well done Grizzly.
Posted by on Jun 04, 2008 @ 09:40 PMThe constitutional and symbolic signifcance of
the administration of police and justice being controlled by Nationalists not to mention a Nationalsit appointed Attorney General ensures that the difficulty for many of supporting British adminstered law in Non Iron can be removed.Nationalists have waited since partition for this so a few more months should hopefully not be a problem. Well done Grizzly.
Sammy this issue has ALWAYS been on the table its been grizzlys friends in the Army council thats been holding it up !!
All Adams has done is sped up the day with the Army COuncil goes out of buisiness, tho he could have done it ages ago and saved everyone the trouble of this week!
Posted by on Jun 04, 2008 @ 09:43 PM“Tell you what quagmire, hold your breath for that one lol”
Tell that to the people who said that the Berlin wall would never come down, to the people who said Paisley would never share power with SF(never mind chuckle with them) or to the people who said there would never be a black president of the USA (watch this space). Indeed if someone had of told Nelson Mandella as he sat in his prison cell on Robben Island for some 20 odd years that he would one day become the president of South Africa, I’m sure he too would have shared in your pessimism. Looked what happened in that instance. Observer my friend time and logic is on nationalism’s side. Off to bed now. Oiche Mhaith. x
Posted by on Jun 04, 2008 @ 09:46 PMSammy,
You call it arcane, I call it a key determinant in whether someone can be relied upon to tell you the truth, or not. Let’s just agree to differ on that.
As for centre stage. Well, ‘centre stage’ on Slugger, UTV and the Beeb NI is not ‘centre state’ as it once was. ;-)
BTW, did Gordon ever make that statement this evening?
Posted by on Jun 04, 2008 @ 09:51 PMpeteb
well just to future for a sec, we might actually get a date this time for P&J;, and not a target date
That’s going to save alot of fingers tapping on key-boards… redux?Posted by on Jun 04, 2008 @ 09:54 PMObserver,
The army council is now a bit like articles 2 & 3 - of absolutely no value in itself except for bartering purposes and held on to by SF to ensure the DUP did as required.
The DUP can not jump too juickly on this as they told their electorate that they wouldn’t be allowing SF/IRA/terrorists to amdinster P and J any time soon - not that an astute Observer like yourself I’m sure believed a word of it.
Posted by on Jun 04, 2008 @ 09:54 PMSammy
The boy that cried wolf did not do it once. He did it multiple times. I don’t think SF got nothing out of it. They have seemingly forced these issues to be brought to a head and have made clear they won’t stand by and allow the DUP to veto everything without consequence. I don’t think this is directly comparable to Brown last year as it seems to be a leverage based calculation rather than an electoral gain based one. It might be mostly optics, but the optics matter, especially when there are rumblings from the base about what the DUP have been dealing out. You might sneer at the SF base, but SF don’t and hence get their votes.
But having threatened the nuclear option, they can’t go through the process and have no gain. They need a win. If they don’t get one, they have to carry out the threat. Else they will be the boy that cried wolf, and I think they will take damage that I don’t even think a weak SDLP will save them from, and if FF come up they will murder them over it.
Pete
I have stated long ago that you were probably right on the target date. I also stated when this came up that i didn’t reckon they wanted the election. I have engaged in a little speculation and “futuring” though as I see little harm in it.
Futuring in particular allows the possibility of thinking out problems and potential scenarios. Criticism and discussion helps anticipate problems with particular courses of action. As long as you don’t get too carried away then you’ll be grand. They have degrees (or at least modules thereof) in Futurology these days, you know.
Posted by on Jun 04, 2008 @ 09:57 PMMick,
when you get in to see the Engleze prime minister who is in the middle of multiple crises at very short notice - I call that centre stage. Gordo seems to have played a stormer.
What statement are you refering to ? Did I say he would do so - I certainly said he would clip Robbo round the ear - and he appears to have done that.
Posted by on Jun 04, 2008 @ 10:00 PM
