Tuesday, September 12, 2006
PDs prospects under McDowell…
Good analysis (subs needed) from one of the Republic’s leading public psephologist, Noel Whelan, who notes that few, if any, of the party’s seats are safe and one or two look almost certain to go. The primary danger lies in the expected resurgence of Fine Gael after an extremely low point in 2002. Perhaps that’s why its voters were the first target in McDowell’s first press statement as leader.
My own suspicion is that a noteably successful outcome from Harney’s time in health could be the key to finding a bounce in the party’s fortunes, and deflect criticism that the party is little other than a small group of Thatcherite fundamentalists. For all that they are almost universally reviled on the left, the PDs have the distinction of being a government party still more focused on policy issues, than of personality. Visible improvements in a health infrastructure that, reputedly has been a ministerial poisoned chalice for all of he FF predecessors, could act as a sober foil to McDowell’s flambuoyant leadership style
A style which most would accept will certainly get the party noticed again, in a way that the industrious and modest Harney couldn’t.
Mick Fealty @ 10:22 AM
The ‘Left’ in the Republic makes up about 20% of the vote . Of that 20% - 12% is the Irish Labour Party . The visceral anti McDowell crowd are what in Britain would at one time have been called the ‘militant tendency’. They never got anywhere in the UK and they’ll never get anywhere in the Republic . They have nothing to offer except stale outmoded ‘marxism’ which the Irish people have always rejected .
McDowell’s direct targeting of FG voters is a surprising opening move in what promises to be a tough election. . I’m sure many FG voters while generally comfortable with the Irish Labour party in a Coalition Government could well put country before party until such time as FG gets a leader who is a ‘match’ for Bertie .
McDowell could yet surprise many by delivering an election result that confounds the ‘leftist’ pundits.
Posted by on Sep 12, 2006 @ 12:57 PMGreenflag
I think that you seriously under estimate the extent to which Mc Dowell is disliked (to say the least). To say that those who dislike him are limited to a ‘militant tendency’ is inaccurate and comes across as a rather obtuse attack on republicans - it is a also long time since there has been a socialist, never mind a marxist in the Labour party.
Mc Dowell is widely disliked in Fianna Fáil in particular and across most political parties - I think it is true that he needs to play to the 5% who might vote for the PD’s and annoy the other 95% as much as possible. I have no doubt that he can do this but I think that crucially, he would also not know where to stop - this alone could mean the PDs being wiped out as he annoys one voter too many.
Vincent Brown in the Sunday Business Post compared Ahern and Mc Dowell -
“Martin Mansergh said of Ahern that he never (or rarely) said something in a negotiation that made matters worse.
McDowell, on the other hand, rarely misses an opportunity to make matters worse.”
Posted by on Sep 12, 2006 @ 01:52 PMWell Vincent Browne has had hardly a good word about McDowell since he passed the Citizenship-Referendum. Same with most of the (PC) media down here. Exceptions include the Irish Daily Mail, the Irish Sun and some in the Irish Independent e.g. Sam Smyth. I think there is a media vendetta against him which hopefully will just help galvanise PD voters. I intend voting for the PDs as McDowell is hinting at controls on Romania and Bulgaria and is promising a tougher stance on bogus asylum-seekers. I think the best bet for McDowell in terms of winning more votes is to portray the Opposition as soft on immigration, especially given Enda Kenny’s proposals on “The Political Party” in the Ursulla Halligan interview to open our doors to Romania and Bulgaria.
Posted by on Sep 12, 2006 @ 01:55 PMBrian Boru
Now that would be a policy platform to be proud of :
“Watch out, the gypsies will get you if you dont vote for me!”
Posted by on Sep 12, 2006 @ 02:01 PMI’ll never understand why the PDs opted for Macdowell instead of Liz O’ Donnell. The mad mullah won’t get a single extra vote for the PDs, as he is widely seen by Irish voters as little more than an arrogant national irritant. O’Donnell is well liked in my opinion, and has the charisma to pull the PDs out of the freefall they are faced with.
Posted by on Sep 12, 2006 @ 02:34 PMSetanta ,
I’ll be the first to admit that McDowell is somewhat abrasive . But he gets things done . I’ll probably be giving the PD’s my number one and FF my preference or vice versa depending on the candidates chosen , simply due to the fact that they have delivered . The Romanian /Bulgarian natter is a red herring and is just further evidence of how divorced Kenny and Co are from reality .The following report from RTE shows that the FF/PD Coalition has managed ‘immigration’ and by inference shows just how strong the economy is . Yes there are some problems but to be honest nothing I’ve heard from the ‘slump’ coalition has convinced me that they have done enough to oust Bertie & Mick .
RTE News .Official figures show that the number of people working in the economy topped two million for the first time in the second quarter of this year.
The Central Statistics Office said the figure of 2,017,000 in employment represented an annual increase of 87,800 or 4.6%. Annual growth in employment has been above 4.5% for the past five quarters and is way ahead of the EU average growth rate of 1.7%.
Full-time jobs accounted for almost 80% of the growth, while the CSO estimates that foreign workers accounted for almost 55%, or 47,800, of the annual increase.
The number of people unemployed grew by 5,800 over the year to 91,400, but the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was unchanged from the previous three months at 4.4%. Overall the labour force increased by 4.6% in the 12 months.A breakdown showed that growth was strongest in the construction and wholesale and retail trade sectors, which added 20,300 and 17,500 jobs respectively over the year. Health, education and finance also showed strong growth.
The CSO estimates that there were 283,300 foreign nationals aged over 15 in the State in the second quarter, with almost 200,000 in work and 14,000 unemployed. The numbers from the 10 new EU states grew by 34,000 compared with the second quarter of last year to 84,400.
Foreign workers make up a quarter of those working in the hotels and restaurants sector and 12% of workers in the building sector.
Separate CSO figures showed that the number of immigrants into the country in the 12 months to April was 86,900, the highest figure since estimates began in 1987.
The number of emigrants was 17,000, giving a net migration figure of 69,900, up from 53,400 in the 12 months to April 2005. When added to the natural increase in population - births minus deaths - this brought the population up 104,000 to 4.235 million.
43% of immigrants were from the 10 new EU states - 26% from Poland and 7% from Lithuania.
* Chambers Ireland has published its 2006 survey of the labour force, which finds that 10% of job vacancies advertised in the past 12 months remain unfilled.
The survey, which focused on older workers, found that companies felt older workers performed better in relation to team work and reliability, but were rated lower than younger workers for technical and learning skills. Chambers Ireland’s John Forde called on more private companies to remove the mandatory retirement age of 65.
Posted by on Sep 12, 2006 @ 05:16 PMMick: you must be absolutely bonkers to believe that Mary Harney is having anything like a term in Angola which would merit your conclusion: “noteably successful outcome from Harney’s time in health”
Her term has been disastrous there and her only response has been to push ahead with her two tier health system whereby the ordinary punter subsidises the rich and famous to have extra care while they languish on the trolleys in the corridoors. I don’t know who’s feeding you this bull - but it’s definitely not chiming with the message I’m getting from people on the ground.
Hospitals are closing - yet there’s plenty of money around to open private hospitals. How is that?
The only reason to vote PD is if you believe the race card should be played - which I don’t - as Brian Boru pointed out. He’s looking for a more Irish - and less Eastern European - Ireland. Sounds like ‘sinn fein’ to me….
I’m sorry to say that Mary Harney may have been industrious - but she was far from effective. Michael McDowell as leader of the PDs may have an appeal as a poster boy of the right but I think his time will shortly be up. I don’t care who takes his seat in Ranelagh as long as the deed is done. TRR
Posted by on Sep 12, 2006 @ 05:57 PM“The only reason to vote PD is if you believe the race card should be played - which I don’t - as Brian Boru pointed out. He’s looking for a more Irish - and less Eastern European - Ireland. Sounds like ‘sinn fein’ to me….”
Strangely SF are the most pro-immigration party down here. Mary Lou McDonald apparently opposes controls on Romania and Bulgaria, and SF opposed the Citizenship referendum. Their name meaning “Ourselves alone” seems highly ironic in that context.
“Hospitals are closing - yet there’s plenty of money around to open private hospitals. How is that?”
Which hospitals are closing?
Anyway, the Hanley report recommended centralisation of certain facilities at strategic regional centres. This seems a more efficient way of spending taxpayer’s money while acheiving improvements in health-care. Having a hospital in every village and all with exactly the same facilities is unfeasible without far higher taxes (electorally unacceptable). Therefore we have to prioritise. Better to have fewer hospitals with the best facilities than to drag everyone down to some inferior common-denominator in the name of “equality”.
Posted by on Sep 12, 2006 @ 06:23 PMOlibheaur Cr
‘He’s looking for a more Irish - and less Eastern European - Ireland.
Complete rubbish and more red herring gobshittery from the left . Here are the numbers again from the census you know those facts and figures to which to you are apparently immune :(
The CSO estimates that there were 283,300 foreign nationals aged over 15 in the State in the second quarter, with almost 200,000 in work and 14,000 unemployed. The numbers from the 10 new EU states grew by 34,000 compared with the second quarter of last year to 84,400.If nothing else works OC - then a total pig headed unwillingness to look economic facts in the face will add to your case eh ?
Mc Dowell will win his seat and Mary Harney will be returned . McDowell will be the next Tanaiste and both FG and Labour will have to look for ‘new ’ leaders . SF will maybe hold their own and the GP’s may win a seat or two .
Bertie’s next budget will do the trick and then a quick snap election before the summer :)
The Republic will not be jeopardising it’s economic future .
Posted by on Sep 12, 2006 @ 08:04 PMGreenflag the CSO figures are a gross underestimation of the reality of immigration. Relying on RTE to analyse the employment/immigration situation gives similarly deliberate underestimations.
The PDs/FF are hugely pro-immigration for business reasons. However, thinking that the future of a nation should be decided on a current annual growth rate of 4.6% in comparison to (whoopee!) a more sluggish 1.7% growth elsewhere is madness. What comprehension of quality of life and long term views have you got?Brian Boru - just because the PDs ‘hint at restrictions’ on Bulgaria and Romania is no reason to vote for these vicious right-wing goons. They are the ones who have sacrificed everything to economic growth and have used mass immigration to achieve that. The growth that they have concentrated on is largely in the construction and services sector - the two least productive areas of economic growth from a national point of view. WEhere is the increase in R&D, techonlogy exports (both hardware and software), the roll-out of broadband, the increase in manufacturing, the better utilisation of our strategic shipping and air position for increased international trade and profit, the roll-out of broadband to build an better indigenous industrial base? No, what we have are lots of houses going up, fuelled by cheap credit, for people to make a profit from the rental business and flipping. And lots of minimum wage jobs in Spars and Centras. That’s not economic growth - that’s short-sighted profiteering dressed up as growth. It is of little value in comparison to the long-term damage it is doing to our quality of life, our stronger underlying economic growth and our demographic structures.
Also the idea that we must ‘rationalise’ our health service a la Hanley is mad. A health service is not a question of wholesale logistics, with ‘efficienies’ to be gained by plonking a big clearing-housing in the centre and allowing ‘inefficiencies’ (i.e., ‘dangers’) to occur as far to the periphery as possible. Either you want a health service that works for everyone and covers the country - with increased cost - or you want a thatcherite idea of health run along economic lines, such as the PDs are proposing. Again, we have every reason to be more ambitious and more caring that the version of governance and the brutality of false ‘efficiencies’ that these bozos are offering. Health is a right for all, no matter where they live.
Posted by on Sep 12, 2006 @ 08:46 PM‘are a gross underestimation of the reality of immigration. ‘
Eh ? Immigration is a reality . The economy could not have grown as rapidly as it has without it .
A growth rate of 4.5 % in employment is to be welcomed . Would you prefer an economy with 30% of the population in the public sector and/or 17% unemployment ? Interesting article in this week’s Economist on Sweden where it’s revealed that Sweden has had virtually no growth in private sector jobs since the 1950’s and that real ‘unemployment ’ is close to 17% for those under 25 and foreign immigrants . Sweden has slipped to 16th ranking in the OECD in terms of income per capita . It’s Social Democratic Government is apparently on it’s way out !
Ireland has to find it’s own way to self sustaining growth and the huge construction boom and it’s probable continuation for at least another decade has been necessary due to the inability to fund such growth in the past due to the economy being less than half it’s present size and it’s working population half of what it is now . Those are the hard facts .
FF/PD got it right . The next election will just confirm that . As for your ‘perfect’ society in the long term ? Keep wishing and maybe the slump coalition will deliver it sometime around 2020 .
Bertie will be back and Mick too :)
Posted by on Sep 12, 2006 @ 09:24 PMIs there any point asking how Harry knows that the CSO figures are a “gross underestimation” of the reality of immigration? I’m betting on omniscience.
The policy of centralising of health services is based on the very sound idea that expertise in a field is quickly lost if it is not regularly used enough.
What Harney is trying to do in Health is to effect a step change in the system. It would be the easiest thing in the world for her to say ‘Sod it, give me 5 billion and I’ll just lob in some extra bed wards’ but this would only, at best, temporarily ease the problem. The issues in the health service are structural - how hospitals are organised, how consultants are employed and so on. These are not easy things to change but Harney is at least trying, rather than just smoothing over everything with a large amount of cash a la Michael Martin. If money was the answer our health service would have improved hugely over the last 8 years, it evidently hasn’t.
That for me is the key difference between the PDs and pretty much every other party; they try to attack the root cause of problems rather than endlessly talking around and not doing anything in case some part of the electorate gets upset. Examples are banning smokey coal in Dublin, taxi deregulation, prison officer overtime, the citizenship referendum (which I had mixed feelings over) and now garda reform.
I think there is more awareness amongst the electorate of the need for someone to sometimes take actions unpopular with narrow interest groups. Sadly I don’t think there will ever be enough of such people to make the PDs a major political party.
Posted by on Sep 12, 2006 @ 09:43 PM‘I think there is more awareness amongst the electorate of the need for someone to sometimes take actions unpopular with narrow interest groups. ‘
Exactly Lorenzo .
’ Sadly I don’t think there will ever be enough of such people to make the PDs a major political party.’
Not major perhaps but if you add up the ‘like minded ’ people from FG and FF you are talking about a majority of the electorate . This is why the economy has increased the number of jobs by 500,000 in the past 6 years or so. I think the PD ‘s can get 10% or more if they put candidates in every constituency . Remember too that the PD’s emerged from FF at a particular time in the not too distant past when the Irish economy was on it’s way to basket case status . They can always ‘remerge’ into FF
The PD’s have been a very positive influence in Government and I happen to believe that they will do better in terms of vote percentage . What limits their potential is that they are stuck between FF and FG. Given the right circumstances and candidates they can win votes and seats from both .
You can expect a steady stream of good news from now to the election . Yes the country has it’s problems but are we better off than a decade ago ? On this occassion the Slump Coalition’s only hope is for Bertie to contract a dose of Blairitis . At a 50% favourable rating it looks like Bertie will be on his way back with a solid majority . Never mind what the opinion polls say.
Posted by on Sep 12, 2006 @ 10:13 PMThe PD analysis of economics and societal development is here - as I’ve found elsewhere on the net - narrow and superficial. Not to mention laced with hysterical comparisons and predictions of doom if not adhered to in the minds of its proponents. Ireland is choosing extreme policies in many areas that will cause damage in the medium to long term, policies that are unneccessary but which are allowed to proceed because they enrich some whilst the great majority are fooled, due to a history of struggle and emigration, to believe that low expectations and being worked to the bone constitute an advancement on what we had before in Ireland. In fact, it is ignorance of their rights and of what our nation can really achieve that is convincing Irish people to allow this cabal of 2nd raters peddle their low achievements as if they’re the dogs bollox. No other country in europe would allow such extreme right-wing policies married to such extreme immigration policies. That is because in europe they have a better sense of their own quality of life, higher expectations and don’t have a history of struggle and emigration like the Irish have.
On the issue of the conservatism of the CSO figures, have a look here
Posted by on Sep 12, 2006 @ 10:32 PMAlso, if FF and the PDs are returned to power it will be the beginning of serious social unrest, of which the Dublin riots were merely a taste.
Posted by on Sep 12, 2006 @ 10:42 PMAfter reading harry’s comments above I can’t help but feel the Unionist’s have a point about Republicans thinly veiled threats of violence if they don,t get there way.
These are very dissapointing comments.Posted by on Sep 12, 2006 @ 11:18 PMHave you been in Dublin recently Irish Aussie? There’s no threat in my comments mate - I’m talking about the facts of the pressures and the exploitation of living in this city and the results that will inevitably come from them - in the city centre and throughout the suburbs in places like Darndale etc. Do not smear me with an interpretation of my comments that you have no right to make.
The idea of progress, economic development and national well-being being propmoted by the PDs and Fianna failers, with their buddies in a very pliant media, is narrow, vicious, short-termist and self-defeating. It relies upon low expectations and ignorance rather than on vision and leadership. It is gombeenism on a scale we have never seen.
I care about Ireland and want to show that not everyone is so narrow. I am in fact a businessman - business is how I make my living. But there is a long distance between real entrepreurism and the exploitative gombeenism being put forward as a business model by the current shower who are in charge. They don’t know how to create real wealth, they don’t know how to create a strong indigenous economy, an enlightened social policy and a caring government. They don’t know how to create a truly exciting, dynamic and advanced society.
Don’t accuse me of thuggery. That’s an outrageous slur and a deliberate misinterpretation of my words.
Posted by on Sep 12, 2006 @ 11:46 PMHarry
First of all attempting to justify an assertion by linking to a discussion where all you do is make the same assertion with the same lack evidence just does not hold water. How is the CSO under reporting the level of immigration? How do you know to the contrary? I am reminded of the adage ‘The plural of anecdote is not data’.
“No other country in europe would allow such extreme right-wing policies married to such extreme immigration policies.”
Only in topsey-turvey Ireland would policies such as keeping tax low, privatisation of commerical State enterprises, encouragement of competition be described as ‘extreme right-wing policies’. It is what most of the the rest of the world, with the possible exception of Cuba and North Korea, have been doing for the past two decades. They might have been seen as right-wing in the ‘socialist’ 70s but public opinion has moved on. No serious party other than SF and the Socialist Party proposes to increase taxes or (re)nationalise anything. These policies are now the centre ground.
In other societies the opposition to immigration as it changes the nature of those societies, is generally classified as ‘right-wing’ opinion (Le Pen & NF, BNP, Vlaams Blok etc). But in Topsey-Turvey Land, being in favour of immigration is right-wing! Maybe the left-wing, right-wing classification of stances on issues no longer makes sense.
I would personally swap the problems of economic decline (see 1980s Ireland), for our current problems, those of economic growth, everytime. People’s memories can be very short.
Posted by on Sep 13, 2006 @ 11:48 AMYou’re a waffler Lorenzo. How does european social democracy in for example France or Holland compare with Ireland? What about their health systems? In Holland if you’re unhappy with the rent you’re paying you can ring up the local council and a fella will come around with a tape measure and see whether you’re being rack-rented or not for the square footage you occupy. Indeed Holland is half the size of ireland with almost three times the population yet there ws never any issue about housing being available for its people at a reasonable cost; or at least wasn’t until recently, when they started adopting ‘right-wing’ (can I say that?) economic policies?
What about the United States? The US, the very home of capitalism, has rent control in all its major cities. What do you think would be the reaction of the gombeens in the Republic of Ireland to the concept of rent control? In other words, the form of capitalism being pursued in the Republic of Ireland is one which wouldn’t be allowed, in some respects, even in the United States! Is that ‘right-wing’? Not just rent control, but in America there is actual competition, unlike in the ROI, which speaks of competition but which is actually owned by cartels and vested interests. Similarly for consumer legislation, which in the states is strong and meaningful but in the ROI is waffle without substance - the consumer is nothing but a tenant whose job is to stump up and shut up.
What about the control of landbanks around Dublin? And the fact that no motorway exists between the first and second cities of the country 10 years after the government came to power? And no integrated transport system in Dublin? (800 million on a glorified bus service though - the Luas - all the better to put in brochures suggesting how ‘advanced’ we are, so advanced the Harcourt Line was faster a 100 years ago than it is today)
And so on…
As for the Bulgarian/Romanian discussion, you obviously didn’t follow it through to page 3. Not surprising really since Ivan tried to bludgeon everyone into submission with interminable ‘reports’ favouring open borders. Try this link and scroll down to my post towards the end.
Posted by on Sep 13, 2006 @ 12:11 PMFantastic. Harry refers me to read the approx 3000 words he has written on immigration in another thread and then refers to me as a ‘waffler’. Furthermore he then attempts to take me to task on topics (rent? land banks?) I have never even mentioned.
Your complaint about the CSO not maintaining or publishing figures on the number of immigrants no longer holds up, if by some stretch of the immagination, it ever did. Yesterday they published a report clearly indicating how many immigrants from different places have occurred since 2001.
Now you can work out how many more of the ‘British’ you will need ‘to kick off our island’ to make your little cultural purity fantasies come true.
I’m going to stop now ‘cos if I write anymore I will be too tempted to contravene Sluggers rules on playing the man, if such a word can be used about Harry. Damn, too late! See?
Posted by on Sep 13, 2006 @ 01:16 PMMasterful riposte Lorenzo. Devastating.
Posted by on Sep 13, 2006 @ 01:43 PM’ In Holland if you’re unhappy with the rent you’re paying you can ring up the local council and a fella will come around with a tape measure and see whether you’re being rack-rented or not for the square footage you occupy. ‘
In Ireland some 87% of people own the home they live in- the highest percentage in the world IIRC . In Holland /France/Germany the percentage who own their own home is in the region of 40 to 50 % . Given that it’s not surprising that those countries have ‘rent controls’ of the type mentioned .
‘How does european social democracy in for example France or Holland compare with Ireland?’
To be blunt Harry -who cares ! We Irish don’t . We’re not Dutch and not French . There is a lot to be admired in some policy areas from EU countries with a social democratic tradition but we must’nt close our eyes to the fact that some of these countries have serious underlying problems which are the ‘product’ of the less positive aspects of what’s called ‘social democracy,as mentioned above re Sweden . Denmark has now started to shave the public payroll and it’s centre right government has presided over an economic boom over the past five years . The Danes have brought in an ‘innovation’ called ‘flexicurity’ which is a peculiar danish blend of a flexible labour market, generous social security and an active labour market policy with RIGHTS and OBLIGATIONS for the unemployed which is now down to 4.5% the lowest in 30 years .
Seems to me that the Danes have created a ‘Nordic Tiger’ based on much the same policy mix as the Irish Republic has . Given Denmark’s different economic and historical experience there will be of course a different emphasis in some areas.
There is no single country model to follow . This we should know from our own economic history . In the 1950’s as the British Welfare State made huge strides forward in improving the lives of the British people with higher living health and education standards many in Ireland asked why can’t we have the same ? The official Government response at that time was we don’t have the capital or the numbers at work or the resources to afford it .Faced with the oncoming ‘failure ’ circa 1957 of the Irish State to deliver the Lemass government radically shifted policy and the same happened in the late 1980’s .
Now we have the capital and last time I checked we seem to have caught up and surpassed our neighbour in many areas where we once lagged behind . This would never have been possible without the strong economic growth of the past 15 years .
The Irish electorate’s memory may be short but on election day they’ll vote for another FF/PD term .
Posted by on Sep 13, 2006 @ 02:04 PM’ if FF and the PDs are returned to power it will be the beginning of serious social unrest, of which the Dublin riots were merely a taste. ‘
Rubbish - So a couple of Estonians /Lithuanians and a few Dubs were fined for throwing stones at a LoveUlster attempt to parade through Dublin ?100 people out of a population of 1.5 million . Catch yourself on Harry .
Re immigration generally I believe Romanians and Bulgarians should not be treated any differently than other EU immigrants . I’d agree that the Government needs however to look at the overall immigration policy . Given Ireland’s tiny 1% (4.2 million) of the EU population another 10 years of immigration at the present rate could be politically destabilising . Anyway this issue needs to be looked at from an overall perspective . Immigration is like arsenic -a little spread out over many years is a tonic for society and the economy -too much at one time could be be socially and politically disruptive .The question is how much is too little and how much is too much ? .
Posted by on Sep 13, 2006 @ 02:30 PMYou’re blinded by numbers Greenflag but short on long term view or quality of life understanding. Certainly Ireland should plough its own furrow and certainly the French model has serious problems in inhibiting the development of much SME based entrepreneurialism, but that doesn’t mean the utter narrow-mindedness of the PD/FF model is to be praised to the skies. It is narrow, self-defeating and corrupt. It is not producing wealth creation of any significance outside of property (unproductive and riven with parasitism, based on credit) and retail/services (low wage, non-exportable). The gombeens have heated up the least productive sector - property - in order to extract the highest profits over the shortest term from their own people. It is their own people who will eventaully - and in the rental sector, immediately - have to pay.
By contrast France has amongst the highest rates of worker productivity in the world and many world class companies while Germany has managed to keep much of its manufacturing base despite worldwide competition.
The Irish haven’t even got a metro system yet, no underpasses have been built anywhere near the city centre of Dublin in 10 years to help the flow of traffic (unlike Paris which has many underpasses), there is no high speed rail system worth talking about, the west of Ireland has been left without any rail system even though it would transform that region, manufacturing has lost at least 30,000 jobs, R&D, nanotechnology and broadband are practically non-existent…
Face it, the FF/PDs are jackasses who shouldn’t be let near power. They have blown our opportunities with little to show for it. People are beginning to seriously struggle right across this country, many have mortgages through their parents and were encouraged into such ‘house ownership’ (if you can give such levels of debt such a grand name) due to the adage ‘if you’re not in you can’t win’. Besides, having a mortgage was just the same or cheaper than renting so most opted for that. Doesn’t mean its an intelligent or sustainable social model. Nor does it mean its just.
What has happened in Ireland over the last 10 years is largely uninteresting from a creative and sustainable economic viewpoint. We are nothing in comparison to Germany or to the investment in technology to be found in Japan. Yet with the right vision there is no reason why we can’t compete even with those countries at a certain level. The mickey mouse half pints of Fianna Fail will never get us there, no matter how much you may be impressed by their third rate achievements. And remember, 85% of our exports are still by foreign companies. No significant advance has occurred in building up an indigenous industrial base. We are overexposed, undiversified and dependent on foreign capital.
On those CSO numbers, I note that according to the CSO report Estimated Immigration of foreign-born citizens into Ireland in 2004 was 33,200. Yet according to the government (here) it issued 134,000 PPS numbers to foreign-born people in 2004 alone. Something of a discrepancy I would have thought.
Posted by on Sep 13, 2006 @ 02:40 PM‘By contrast France has amongst the highest rates of worker productivity in the world and many world class companies while Germany has managed to keep much of its manufacturing base despite worldwide competition. ‘
And France also has the highest rate of unemployment in the EU along with Germany . Reminder -Ireland is not Germany and neither is it France or Japan . These large countries with populations 15 to 30 times that of Ireland went through an ‘industrial revolution’ that barely touched most of Ireland apart from a small area around Belfast .
‘We are nothing in comparison to Germany or to the investment in technology to be found in Japan. ‘
Eh ? Full marks for the obvious . I don’t remember stating we should be compared to either . If there is any comparison to be made it should be with economies around the world that are similar in size and where possible with similar economic and political histories .
Local entrepeneurship in the Republic is running at 3 times the rate for Northern Ireland even taking account of the population difference .
I would agree that some countries especially Denmark and Finland have done better building up some of their local industries to be world class but then they have had several decades of economic growth whereas the Irish Republic experienced a long trough of stagnation in the post war period .
Capital formation /accumulation takes time and I don’t just mean financial capital.
‘What has happened in Ireland over the last 10 years is largely uninteresting from a creative and sustainable economic viewpoint.’
That’s not what I read . The ability of the FF/PD Governments to negotiate and win agreement between the ‘social partners’ has been much admired. That has certainly been a factor in the strong performance . Irish companies such as CRH/Fyffe’s/Jefferson Smurfit /Kerrygold etc etc etc now employ many thousands of people worldwide .
Waffling on about long term and quality of life is all very well but it does not put bread and butter on the plate in the here and now .You make a few worthwhile points but overall your barking will be drowned out by the sounds of the cranes and building expansion which is set to continue for at least another decade.
‘You’re blinded by numbers Greenflag ‘No I just happen to believe numbers are important . If 70% of your economy (NI) is based on the public sector then no matter how good your ‘quality of life’ now then sooner or later the day of reckoning will dawn . If you live in a State where there has been no real growth in private sector employment since the 1950’s (Sweden) then the dynamic of wealth creation will sooner or later dry up.
So you think that FG and Irish Labour can do better ? Sorry not this time . Like the DUP/SF combination of parties in NI the former are going nowhere .
‘Something of a discrepancy I would have thought. ‘
Just Government Bureaucracy and how the numbers are processed, and reported . The PPS numbers probably refer to applications from earlier years .
I agree that the property market has been heated up but then Ireland is not alone in this phenomenon . It’s been a world wide trend . Sooner or later the ‘market’ will make a correction .Posted by on Sep 13, 2006 @ 04:50 PM
