Friday, November 17, 2006
Opening blog salvo on the Assembly election…
So the Northern Ireland Assembly election has been brought forward by a year to 7th March. But As Pete has said, it is going to be very difficult to work out what the election will actually mean when all is done and dusted. El Blogador reckons there is two possible gains for the SDLP: explicitly one in Newry and Armagh (more in hope than expectation?), and another in a currently all unionist seat. Although strictly speaking, there is no such thing, the party could nick a seat from the Alliance candidate in Strangford. But the bigger fight will be on the Unionist side.
The Hearts and Minds poll shows no deterioration from last year’s Westminster Election for the UUP, but decidedly uncomfortable deficits from November 2003!
Expect the DUP to sell the decommissioning of the IRA as their big thing. There are margins all over Northern Ireland to be squeezed ruthlessly, even if they yield relatively meagre results, especially compared to last year’s romp. David Ervine will surely struggle to keep his East Belfast toehold. And the UUP is not the constituency force it was even five years ago, when at least the contorversy between Trimble and Donaldson kept 600, 700, 700 delegates traipsing back and forth to Belfast for key internal votes. Nowadays, they can barely raise a few hundred.
In the end, if the DUP increases its vote and its representation, then few will look backwards to the murky detail surrounding the St Andrews Agreement. At this early stage they look invulnerable to any serious counter attack, since the pro Belfast Agreement UUP have little to attack them on. And the informal grouping around Bob McCartney seem unlikely to deliver much other than a symbolic bloody nose. In North Down his vote is highly loyal but also highly personal. But last time his running mate came nowhere.
In South Antrim, all eyes will be on David Ford who’s career was prematurely pronounced at an end last time out. Most times out, the Alliance’s secret weapon was cross community transfers. Will they hold up in March? Also it might be worth keeping an eye on the Greens for any spoiling affects. They have virtually no chance of taking a seat, but are keen to position themselves close to the space currently held by the Alliance Party.
Sinn Fein have fewer options to continue to squeeze SDLP voters. But there are a few places they will hope to pick up seats. Martin Meehan in South Antrim was unlucky not to make it last time in South Antrim, and some say that Dolores Kelly could struggle to hold for the SDLP in Lurgan. But in the end, it will come down to local scraps, and perhaps on whether the SDLP can put together a better campaign than the last few times out.
Sinn Fein may not roll much further forward but neither will it not drop back down its own Sysiphean hill. Expect targeted efforts to embarrass the SDLP, even if it means letting the odd seat go unionist.
The whip hand remains with the two main negotiating parties - formerly known as the ‘extremes’. It doesn’t help the ‘moderates’ either that we have yet another winter election! With or without a deal (which will most likely go down to the wire) they control the terms of reference for the campaign. And, it would seem, they have scooped the choice of a new political generation in Northern Ireland.
The best the two minor parties can do is to identify a viable core vote, and seek a platform on which to build for the future. Today, substantially, belongs to Ian Paisley’s DUP and Sinn Fein.
Mick Fealty @ 02:35 PM
Mick,
Do you know of any seats where the SF and SDLP competition is such that they let in a unionist candidate? or do they vote tactically to ensure its a shade of green that wins the day?
I’d hate to think that there are areas where “one cuts off ones nose to spite ones face” !!!Posted by on Nov 17, 2006 @ 02:37 PMHere’s a thought:
In the old Assembly, an anti-Agreement faction within the UUP was a dangerous thing, as it could gang up with the DUP in the Assembly to block progress.
A similar anti-F13A faction within the DUP would not be able to have the same effect, since the UUP are unlikely to go along with their stalling tactics.
Therefore, would anti-Agreement Dupers cause more damage to the Agreement by leaving now and joining forces with Bob McCartney to form a more formidable anti-Agreement electoral machine?
Posted by on Nov 17, 2006 @ 02:48 PMMick-
“Although strictly speaking, there is no such thing.”
Strictly speaking Alliance are unionist, even if see themselves as ‘middle-of-the-road’, hence my descriptor of said parliamentary constituency.
As I said in my original post, any forecasts at this juncture come with a sizeable caveat, viz. that they are dependent on everything running smoothly from now until March 2007. Sinn Féin in particular may face problems both internally and externally in relation to its metanoia on policing. To a large extent the SDLP’s success (or lack thereof) will be dependent on how SF weather that storm, in addition to the quality of its own campaign (as you said).
On the unionist side, the only thing open to question is how big the DUP’s lead will be over the UUP- it will inevitably be smaller than that enjoyed following the General Election last year on account of PR-STV and six-seater constituencies, but nonetheless it will be interesting to see how things have changed since November 2003.
Posted by on Nov 17, 2006 @ 03:08 PMParicfal, last time out SDLP transfers got the DUP’s Diane Dodds elected in west Belfast at the expense of the Shinners’ Sue Ramsey.
Posted by on Nov 17, 2006 @ 03:22 PMpaul
Wrong. The votes that elected Diane Dodds were votes that went from Chris McGimpsey to Joe Hendron and then when Hendron was eliminated went back to Dodds. The stoops can take the blame for a lot of things bu this isn’t one of them.
Posted by on Nov 17, 2006 @ 03:46 PMNext Assembly:
DUP 37-40
UUP 16-20
SF 24-28
SDLP 14-19
ALLIANCE 2-7
Deeny 1
McCartney 1Posted by on Nov 17, 2006 @ 03:48 PMThe Greens might get one in North Down.
Posted by on Nov 17, 2006 @ 03:52 PMIt will be intersting to see if Deeney is returned in West Tyrone given his failure to save acute services at the Tyrone County hospital.
Posted by on Nov 17, 2006 @ 03:57 PMWith Eileen gone, you couldn’t rule the Greens out in North Down. I personally would welcome the election of a Green MLA (would probably give them a number 2 or 3).
Posted by on Nov 17, 2006 @ 04:03 PMthanks paul, but I see your claim is disputed by the usurper percival ;)
Its all coronation st. to me anyway, as who do you vote for if you want to see the tri-colour raised in Belfast City Hall.Posted by on Nov 17, 2006 @ 04:10 PMI’m putting a fiver on O’Connor making a come back for the SDLP in East Antrim. Stangford was also a narrow miss last time out for the SDLP and they may just pip the Alliance there also.
Posted by on Nov 17, 2006 @ 04:26 PMConservatives will stand in more of the seats than last time and will get a higher % of the vote, in those seats where they do stand, bringing out some people who normally don’t vote. However this will be too small a number to win any seats.
Posted by on Nov 17, 2006 @ 05:14 PMIn view of the conviction today of Dessie Stewart for criminal behaviour in election fraud (see http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/6159006.stm) I suggest that the assembly be suspended until all evidence of this type of criminal activity by the DUP is investigated, and they are cleansed through a decontamination period.
Posted by on Nov 17, 2006 @ 05:37 PMThe key to this election will be turnout, but this begs the question do the electorate feel particularly motivated? I do get the feeling that many regard politicians generally with increasing odium.
If turnout is low the extremes will do well. If the garden centre set turn out then UUP lose a few, Alliance holds say 4-6 of its seats. Ford could lose in South Antrim and the Strangford seat is very weak. Alliance’s East Belfast seat is also weak. I would doubt if the Green Party will take a seat in N. Down Alliance will hold with Alderdice?
SF may have peeked and this election could well be on top of one in the South which can’t be good news for them in either jurisdiction.
Posted by on Nov 17, 2006 @ 05:49 PMThe election will be interesting on several counts
1. Will UKUP manage to take votes from the DUP - there are a lot of disaffected DUP supporters out there.
2. Will the UUP see a lot of their voters returning now the DUP have done the very thing they left the UUP for, especially those who voted for the three who defected to the UUP.
3. Will the Conservatives bring out new electors that will transfer to UUP, SDLP or Alliance.
4. Will SF lose disaffected voters because of policing, will the happening of the past 2 years send voters from SF to SDLP.
I suspect that the make up COULD be:-
DUP 28
UUP 26
UKUP 3
SDLP 17
SF 26
ALLIANCE 5
OTHERS 3i.e a lot closer run for the DUP than many may imagine as they could become the minority in unionism
Posted by on Nov 17, 2006 @ 05:57 PM26 seats for the UUP? You must be fucking joking! The Ulster Unionist Party are finished as many of their councillors will privately admit. This election campaign will show finally the utter folly of electing Sir Reg as leader.
Posted by on Nov 17, 2006 @ 06:05 PM“SF may have peeked”
So they already know the results?
Posted by on Nov 17, 2006 @ 06:08 PMVery funny Ian. LOL
Posted by on Nov 17, 2006 @ 06:17 PMI see that JIm Allister has come out against the St Andrews deal again in the Tele also that David Simpson has made a very strong statement in the Portadown Times. Allister, McCrea, Dodds, Campbell, Simpson all making highly disgruntled noises - Looks like the wagons are being circled
Posted by on Nov 17, 2006 @ 06:31 PMEl Mat,
I am happy with the explanation that some Alliance people have given me: ie that they are effectively neutral on the constitutional question.
Posted by on Nov 17, 2006 @ 06:31 PMRe: Old Bailey
I have been told on a number of occasions that Simpson pretty much came out against it at the now infamous DUP Lurgan Town Hall consultation meeting
Posted by on Nov 17, 2006 @ 06:42 PMMy best gut feeling is 12-15 for the UUP. If they make it to 15 they would have done well. More likely to be around 12 though i reckon. The UUP is in major difficulty and will no doubt botch the campaign, has no money to run a decent campaign and will pick a selection of has been candidates and local hacks when it needs smart capable professional politicians to mount any future comeback. Its a complete tragedy to watch it really is.
Posted by on Nov 17, 2006 @ 06:56 PMI hope you’re not including yourself in the category of professional politician Duncan. Who can forget your suggestion that Antrim Council could solve the problem of squirrels in the Castle Grounds by going in and filing their teeth?!
Posted by on Nov 17, 2006 @ 07:44 PMDSD
Seems a bit like sour grapes on your part, although not a UUP supporter I think your estimate is wide on the mark.
When I talk to people on the ground… the DUP are saying in public they want this election, in private.....very different!
Posted by on Nov 17, 2006 @ 08:13 PMI personally expect SF+3 SDLP-2 DUP+3 UUP-3 APNI-1.
Posted by on Nov 17, 2006 @ 09:03 PM
