Thursday, May 08, 2008
“not perfect and not wholly democratic..”
The press conference following the events in Belfast today, live-streamed online at the time, was very interesting viewing. The politicians’ set-pieces are still online here. The BBC’s Mark Devenport picks up on the potential problem with Gordon Brown’s ‘pressie’
The Prime Minister did bring one pressie - telling the Executive they could keep the proceeds from sales of their assets to the tune of £2.2 billion. That’s double the current figure. But is this an enormously generous gesture or an injunction to sell off the family silver at a time when the market price is rock bottom?
Executive sources are sceptical about whether they can get anywhere near the £2.2 billion figure. What was clear from Sir David Varney’s recent report is that Belfast port is the big plum Whitehall believes can be plucked from the Executive’s tree. But Stormont ministers are far from certain this would be such a good idea.
The online clip doesn’t include the journalists’ questions at the end.. nor the moment when, just after Taoiseach Brian Cowen had expressed confidence in a stablity provided for through the Belfast and St Andrews Agreements which bind future governments to the agreed arrangements, NI First Minister Ian Paisley wandered off the feel-good script somewhat. Describing the current administration at Stormont as “not perfect and not wholly democratic, but the best [he] could get for the people of Northern Ireland”, Ian Paisley went on to express a desire to move towards more democratic structures sooner rather than later.. at which point the deputy First Minister intervened and called an end to the press conference citing other engagements for the political couple.
Pete Baker @ 05:36 PM
pity they didnt include the journalist questions and answers at the end. but interesting nonetheless.
however, Brown is disastrous , in that ALL he offers is a sell-off of public assets - no reduction in corp tax or other incentives?
and then Cowen pledges $1 billion in investment.
whether the Irish investment is actually from the EU is by-the-by, the British should have seized the moment to do something to help Northern Ireland - and as Tony O’Reilly called for, allowed Northern Ireland to set their own corporation tax rate.
Now THAT would have been one heck of a gift for the North.
Posted by on May 08, 2008 @ 06:38 PMBut is this an enormously generous gesture or an injunction to sell off the family silver at a time when the market price is rock bottom?
Mick
You have hit the nail on the head here, and the fact that few sluggerites have responded to this thread is extremely worrying. What does the silver consist, perhaps it is time the people of the north thought this through as I remember the anger over water charges.
It is time some people moved beyond the sectarian and left right, north south agenda and asked themselves just what type of society they wish to live in.
For I have no doubt Browns offer would make many conservatives and lefties like me fume with rage as it is implying that the protestant people can be brought with a handful of coin. It is the most short sighted and contemptible offer ever to come out of Downing street and it tells us more about Gordon Brown,s unfitness for high office to date. i.e. we all have price in his mind. He will be calling the protestant community spongers next!
Posted by on May 08, 2008 @ 06:47 PMi agree with you Mick - the more i think about it , the more I think that Browns offer is an utter disaster.
LONG TERM business decisions are not set on whether you can sell off the family silver - they are set on tax breaks, investments, and infrastructure. Brown brought none of that - instead some “smoke and mirrors” figure of “2 BILLION"…
why not a package of say “hey , set up business here ,tax free for 10 years?” or something more business friendly? Northern Ireland surely needs this. No wonder Paisley, as Slugger noted, slightly drifted “off message”..
i cant blame him. i’d be furious too.
Posted by on May 08, 2008 @ 06:53 PMMick
Credit where it’s due… with the BBC’s Mark Devenport.
Posted by on May 08, 2008 @ 06:58 PMguys I think you’re all missing
“We have no selfish strategic or economic interest” ..
in other words look to Dublin for lower corporation taxesPosted by on May 08, 2008 @ 07:59 PMFor christ’s sake can we forget this corporate tax cut thing already ? The Brits are NOT going to have the City of London up sticks and move to the Titanic Quarter. They are not just going to give us our economy for nothing. To persist in the belief that they will is to put store in a pipe dream. There’s only one way to bring business here - make our economy competitive and attractive to investment.
The investment conference being held today seems to me, sadly, to be little more than a cynical political stunt cooked up by politicians and, of course, the people at InvestNI to try to make it look as if they are doing something. It won’t result in any actual new investment here any time soon. These people are not so stupid that they can be fooled by a state-sponsored wining and dining at the Culloden.
Posted by on May 08, 2008 @ 08:14 PMActually, Comrade, there *will* be investment out of this conference. But it will have been orchestrated and manoeuvred months in advance and will probably have been “on the books” so to speak, for some time.
For example - First Source’s announcement last week of 800 new jobs? Several recruitment agencies have been doing campaigns to fill those posts since January, before that even.
Expect another “jobs boost” in the next couple of months. They’ve been planned and agreed with INI from last year.
Posted by on May 08, 2008 @ 08:21 PMInteresting development.
Brown’s career is in danger. He needs the media tycoons, who gave London to the Tories, back on side if he is to have any chance to survive. He’s sold all the gold the Treasury had at rock bottom price already. How can he make friends with the corporate interests again?
Fair play to Mark Devenport, but to be fair, Brown has form in this regard.
Posted by on May 08, 2008 @ 08:31 PMWhat is wrong with selling some family silver to get a National Stadium in East Belfast for rugby and football and at the same time upgrade Casement
Posted by on May 08, 2008 @ 08:37 PM‘the British should have seized the moment to do something to help Northern Ireland ‘
Why ? Haven’t they done enough these past 40 years -keeping the lid on - tolerating one political absurdity after another etc etc etc . Nothing lasts forever and the gravy train eventually runs out of gravy .
‘’and as Tony O’Reilly called for, allowed Northern Ireland to set their own corporation tax rate. ‘
To be followed by Scotland , Wales , the North of England etc etc . There would be nothing left in the Exchequer to keep Queenie and Co in ermine etc etc .
HMG is unlikely to do much for NI short of the next election just keep the lid on and hope that there is no ‘hung’ parliament on which the UUP/DUP can ‘pimp’ their way to getting more than their ‘fair share’ of the power sharing spoils .
Posted by on May 08, 2008 @ 08:50 PMhey I got me a fan ;-)
Posted by on May 08, 2008 @ 09:12 PMHe needs the media tycoons, who gave London to the Tories, back on side if he is to have any chance to survive.
Jesus Damian, do the Stoops really have such a low opinion of the electorate that they think they’re incapable of forming an opinion by themselves ?
Posted by on May 08, 2008 @ 10:10 PMThe single biggest attraction to Ireland for an overseas investor, is a talented, motivated, easy to communicate with workforce. The size of the place means that there is really just one labor pool and physical location within the country for the vast majority of company types makes no real difference. The maker / breaker comes down to the money, if I as an investor realize I get to keep more of my profits in the ROI and in fact find that it has a more favourable bureaucracy the decisions are easy.
Free market economies (George W was waffling about that today - someone must have wrote it down for him) mean that economies must compete too. NI just isn’t that competitive in comparison to the ROI. For that matter the ROI is not that competitive in the world setting any longer, so NI needs to better the enticement rather that just a match with the ROI.
I firmly believe that trying to transplant intellectual business property from overseas economies provides just short term success, the magnitude and duration of which depends largely on the performance of other overseas economies similar to ours. In short, labours are a dime a dozen and keeping one particular labourer around can largely depend on a fondness for him, which will evaporate when the money tightens or he starts to slack.
Entrepreneurship, the development of unique products with unique selling points provides us with a way of retaining investment and using all our resources, talents that have long existed in NI/ROI are being railroaded in favour of a few Politicians seeking to retire with icing on their cake or buff their egos.
Posted by on May 09, 2008 @ 02:15 AMAnd another thing, why is NI trying to replicate the ROI business model, when everyone knows the best days of that business model are now over.
The emperor does not have any clothes on.
Posted by on May 09, 2008 @ 02:46 AM“And another thing, why is NI trying to replicate the ROI business model, when everyone knows the best days of that business model are now over.”
Well said McGrath, as you said because the emperor in London has no new ideas. Perhaps people in the north need to get things into perspective, unless Brown/whoever can entice the south into Nato the Brits are going no where soon.
If you are looking to have a low business tax economy you are going down the road of a low wage economy and at the end of the economic cycle many of these businesses will up and leave.
Instead of this continuos hum we hear in the north about how awful it is that the north has such a large percentage of its people working for the state, rejoice, catch yourself on and remind yourselves that we are in a recession. whilst not as safe as houses, [oops sorry] working for the government during a recession is about as good as any job gets and in a small place like the six it can help keep the rest of the economy afloat.
Neo liberal economics and its race to the bottom will increasingly be seen by western economists as absurd, china won that round just as Japan did in a previous economic cycle. Although it is a game of two halfs.
We need to get back to sound economics and a mixed economy which can take some of the strain in the bad days, the north has a head start here, do not throw it away for short term gain which will allow SF and the DUP to appear good. [temporally]
Posted by on May 09, 2008 @ 06:51 AMfolks, anyone who has been watching this for some time will be very aware, the varney reports were designed to kick the corporation tax issue in to touch, the investment conference was desgined to throw sand in the air so that the DUPs particulary won’t have to explain where the demanded financial package went.
Inthe reality that 2008 there will be little or no inward investment to NI, our “skills” are not unique and the good will factors due to the “peace process” have been over exploited.
Brown’s £1b give away is nothing of the sort and our politicians have been hoodwinked again.
Clearly politicially St Andrews was a disaster Minister Ruin has proved all the safeguards aren’t worth a penny candle. The death of Paul Quinn and the subsequent cover up proves that underlying all the chuckles there remains dnager tensions. The 11 Downing Street meeting and promises of generous financial support were hollow and the edifice we call Stomont is built on very precarious shifting sand.
added to all this the lack of capacity and competance of our MLAs and the real picture of Northern Ireland is very bleak.
But hey, its friday, its stoppe raining so we should be soooo grateful for allwe have!
Posted by on May 09, 2008 @ 08:37 AM“not perfect”
Yes, quite. Our coalition partners continue to murder, our education system is a mess and we have IRA representation on the victims’ commission, the policing board and every other institution of government, etc.“not wholly democratic”
No, completely undemocratic. A government which cannot be removed without an opposition. “Not wholly democratic”? More like completely undemocratic!Posted by on May 09, 2008 @ 09:49 AMMcGrath,
‘I firmly believe that trying to transplant intellectual business property from overseas economies provides just short term success, the magnitude and duration of which depends largely on the performance of other overseas economies similar to ours.’
Economic development is not easy . Every economy on the planet bar none has at one time or another ‘borrowed’and ‘benefited’ from foreign investment . What’s critical is that the ‘investment’ acts as a multiplier generating more economic activity than would have been the case without such investment . In that respect FDI has been a resounding success in the Republic . It’s virtual absence from NI over the past several decades has ‘retarded’ the NI economy and made it more dependent on the public sector . In retrospect it’s at least debateable whether a hypothetical absence of the ‘Troubles’ would have made any significant difference to the overall NI economy’s ability to attract sufficient FDI to generate the kind of growth rates which the Republic achieved. As of now and looking forward NI can hope to attract some ‘goodwill’ investment but the reality is that their best bet is to hope for ‘overspill’ from the Republic-such as in the recent Robinson /Cowen Financial services deal for Belfast.
Mick Hall,
‘ Well said McGrath, as you said because the emperor in London has no new ideas.
Neither has the Emperor in Washington and even some of the would be new emperors or empresses :(
But it is becoming clear to a greater number that the extreme religious ‘right’ in the aftermath of the defeat of Communism has gone too far in it’s ideology -so much so that the ‘contradictions’ both political and economic are mounting up’ just as they did for Soviet ‘communism’ in the 1980’s. A majority of Americans have moved to the centre left . The promise of compassionate God based ‘conservatism’ is now seen as a political mirage that turned into an economic and diplomatic shambles for America in the world .I suspect the post November period in the USA is going to show a radically different American face to the world.On the one hand while it may be a more pleasant face for European ‘liberals’ it may not be from which NI will ‘economically’ benefit to any great extent nor for that matter will the Irish Republic .
‘Perhaps people in the north need to get this into perspective, unless Brown/whoever can entice the south into Nato the Brits are going no where soon.’
The Republic should be in NATO regardless of whether the Brits are going , coming ,staying , leaving or might leave . It’s time we got over our ‘false’ neutrality syndrome .
Posted by on May 09, 2008 @ 04:13 PMFlat Earther,
‘No, completely undemocratic. A government which cannot be removed without an opposition. “Not wholly democratic”? More like completely undemocratic! ‘
While it is true that the present NI constitutional dispensation does not conform to the standard ‘democratic’ model there are good reasons for this . A short read of Northern Ireland’s political , economic and constitutional history 1920 through to the present should be enough to convince even the most skeptical (and I include myself in that group0 that what NI has at this time is all that is possible for a long time to come .
The only way for any Northern Ireland State to become a ‘normal’ democracy would be in a post Repartition situation where Nationalists/Republicans would form approx 10% of the population and not 47% . In a smaller predominantly Unionist State there could be a ‘loyal ‘ opposition i.e one not waiting to topple the State after the next election .
But Unionists be they DUP or UUP appear to have no stomach for such a smaller State. So what NI now has is about as good as it will ever get for both Unionists and Nationalists . As for the current NI Assembly ever delivering ‘normal democracy’ ? to NI . When you see pigs fly maybe !
Be grateful for the ‘quick ‘ fix that has taken all of 40 years to deliver to NI:(
Posted by on May 09, 2008 @ 04:32 PMGreenflag
You make some very interesting points with which I do not disagree, but I cannot see what the people of the south can gain from the following,
“The Republic should be in NATO regardless of whether the Brits are going , coming ,staying , leaving or might leave . It’s time we got over our ‘false’ neutrality syndrome”
As far as military matters are concerned, leaving aside the nelson over rendition out of shannon I cannot see anything wrong with the Republic of Irelands neutrality.
Best regards
Posted by on May 09, 2008 @ 06:36 PMGF:
As of now and looking forward NI can hope to attract some ‘goodwill’ investment but the reality is that their best bet is to hope for ‘overspill’ from the Republic-such as in the recent Robinson /Cowen Financial services deal for Belfast.
“Spillover” puts it nicely. Nor would I look a gift horse in the mouth, but this is not a core long term strategy.
NI has very little home grown long term sustainable export business. Notables are Norbrook, Powerscreen (now merged), Wrightbus, and none of these are powerhouses.
Foreign investment it to be welcomed, but with wave of recent foreign investments / mergers, the business plans are written overseas which put us pretty much at their mercy.
The current investment drive will just make the NI economy top heavy, lots of cash, no foundation.
Posted by on May 09, 2008 @ 07:51 PM“What is wrong with selling some family silver to get a National Stadium in East Belfast for rugby and football and at the same time upgrade Casement “
..because we cannot afford them and if we had the money better to spend it on investments that will bring future real jobs and boost the economy not drain it. Theres no real money to be made in NI football nor jobs to be had in NI football or rugby
Posted by on May 09, 2008 @ 09:01 PM‘I cannot see anything wrong with the Republic of Irelands neutrality.’
If you were British you might . These islands share a lot of common values and if there is ever to be a UI or some other longer term arrangement then being part of a common defence area with the UK makes politcal , economc and military sense .Apart from that our Defence Forces would benefit from up to date training along with other NATO forces
Posted by on May 09, 2008 @ 09:23 PMMcGrath,
‘but this is not a core long term strategy.’Of course . As a matter of interest what do you think should be the ‘way forward’ economically for NI ? You sound somewhat defeatist in your approach :)? Muddling through with whatever MMG’s Exchequer can afford to subvent seems to me at least one option . Unexciting perhaps but then NI can probably do without any more excitement for a generation or two .
Posted by on May 09, 2008 @ 09:32 PMGF:
For one, NI, even the ROI needs to take more advantage of its intellectual capital and build modern cottage industries were the stakeholders can build and retain equity. We are selling ourselves short by simply being prepared to be the laboring workforce of large overseas organizations.
Effective privatization of various government services, eg division of the water service into agencies with boards of trustees. Public bids on contracts for rubbish collection and disposal etc
Scaling back of public housing construction, refocus on construction of affordable housing for first time owners as so reducing anti-social burdens and reduction of government administration.
Those are a few.
Posted by on May 09, 2008 @ 10:32 PM
