Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Maze first favourite for stadium site…
The Press Association has a copy of the conclusions of a Price Waterhouse reportt on the viability of the plans to convert the Maze prison site into a sport stadium. The report was commissioned by the Minister for Culture, Arts and Leisure, Edwin Poots, a strong supporter of the Maze plan. However the report is with the Minister of Finance who is sure to give those figures a thorough going over.
Key Figures:
- first four years operation cost £37m.
- a 38,500-seat stadium
-hosting 23 major sporting and music events par
- just under 500,000 paying spectators.
It would appear to be the Maze or nothing…
Mick Fealty @ 07:18 PM
You’re quite right: all the journalists are capable of is regurgitating government press releases.
Investigative journalism seems to rest solely with David Gordon in the BT, and he hasn’t been put on to the Maze charade.
Posted by on Feb 20, 2008 @ 02:07 PMwillow
You “couldn’t be sure” that the stadium could generate £50m each year … but above you said you “presumed” that it would. Why do you make that presumption?
Because a business case has been put forward that says it can be done by an Accountancy firm, which presumably know something about money and research. This convinces me more than a “It’s a big figure so I don’t believe it!!!!!!1111111” argument.
George’s figures for Croke are more convincing, seeing as it is currently hosting GAA, football, rugby and music events and is much bigger and only approaching those sorts of figures. I wouldn’t worry too much if it was ten years to pay off instead of five, since it should last a lot longer, but I don’t see it stacking up with those amounts.
The alternatives may, however, be even more expensive, so the taxpayer might want to fund it. Personally happy if they just fund the 3 sports separately, Windsor Park remains a craphole and my taxes go only something else but it doesn’t automatically follow it isn’t the right choice.
Posted by on Feb 20, 2008 @ 02:36 PMshould be dead in the water now
How true. Came back to read it again. It does not improve second time round. We would be fools to proceed.
Posted by on Feb 20, 2008 @ 02:52 PMHere’s a question - if the Maze is going to be such a money-spinner, why are private investors not queuing up to build it and why the need for £240m of taxpayers’ money?
Posted by on Feb 20, 2008 @ 02:53 PMThe more you look at it the worse it gets.
PWC admit that there isn’t the critical mass of financial services necessary to create huge demand for corporate or premium tickets and they reckon that even if NI ever does develop one then only 4,000 could be sold.
However, they believe 1,300 (300 in boxes and 1,000) is a more realistic figure at present.
Lansdowne Rd expect to get just over 80 million euros from the sale of 35 corporate boxes and 10,000 premium seats. That’s around 50 million sterling from 11,600 prime seats.
As PWC admit, the Maze product is not as attractive financially as Lansdowne, which is in a city with a huge multi-billion euro Financial Services Sector (IFSC employs nearly 25,000 people), can offer Six Nations, UEFA Cup finals and ROI football.
So the Maze will initially have around one tenth of the corporate customers/premium seating of Lansdowne so I assume it will get one tenth of the revenue. That works out at 5 million over 10 years in my book.
But even if we suspend reality and take it that the Maze does indeed get 23 events and somehow manages to sell every single one of its 29,900 premium and corporate tickets, it still comes out at around 2 million a year or 20 million over ten years.
Let’s be generous and say they also get 10 million for the naming rights of the stadium, which is three-quarters of the 20-million euro sum that Lansdowne are hoping for.
We will also be supremely generous and give half of the operating profit of Croke Park on a normal year which is 5 million.
That gives us a grand total of 80 million in revenue over 10 years.
But we are looking at a stadium costing 240 million to build at today’s prices. This price is almost certain to rise.
That leaves us with a shortfall of at least 160 million pounds plus the accumulated interest after 10 years.
Without large amounts of public money, this project will sink in a sea of debt.
Posted by on Feb 20, 2008 @ 03:40 PMThe thing that strikes me is that the first thread I ever posted on Slugger was related to the stadium issue. That’s nearly five years ago now. My views have evolved in that time. Now, I think it’s time we forgot about this stadium charade. I say keep some of the H Blocks as a museum and sell the rest of the land at the Maze to property developers. It should bring in a few hundred million.
Take whatever money has been put aside for this White Elephant and spend it building railways. Then give £100m or more to Queen’s and to tell them to: a) vastly increase scientific research, and b) build a full-blown Faculty of Economics that can be a world-leader.
Then maybe in ten years we’ll be able to afford to blow a few hundred million on a stadium, or at least have an educated population able to do the sums.
As for the three sports, let them look to themselves.
Posted by on Feb 20, 2008 @ 03:53 PMdavid - “Perhaps the IFA should drop the English anthem & unionist flag, stop interferring in the rights of Irishmen to represent their country on the international football stage & start disciplining teams who commemorate terrorists - Irvine & Glentoran”
I assume you are an educated man who is trying to stir. You know perfectly well that GSTQ is the anthem of the UK and it’s up to the associations to decide what to use. As to teams supporting terrorism, it says everything if that’s all you can say regarding the IFA. But I assume you don’t want to mention the real terrorist links of the GAA i.e. Mairead Farrell Camogie tournament, Kevin Lynch club Dungiven, the Michael McVerry cup, the use of Casement Park for a Sinn Fein PIRA rally, Cumann na Fuiseoige (Bobby Sands), Gerard and Martin Harte Memorial Cup for U12s (Tyrone), Louis Leonard Memorial Park (Fermanagh), Lochrie/Campbell Park (Dromintee Football Club, S.Armagh) etc etc etc
Billy Pilgrim - “I say keep some of the H Blocks as a museum”
So you pretend that you don’t support terrorism yet want to keep this terrorist shrine. Well at least we finally know where you really stand regarding these murderers.
Posted by on Feb 20, 2008 @ 06:18 PMI went onto the BBC website to access and read the report and alreay the story has been dropped.
Is this latest Pwc whitewash actually presented as a Business Plan? I just heard it described as a ‘report’.
One of the most galling aspects of this is that the membership of the GAA have not been asked for their opinion at all - which is not the usual GAA way. Only on this issue and the crazy ‘pay for play’ issue has the GAA civil service not sought opinions from clubs or counties.
Posted by on Feb 20, 2008 @ 07:21 PMIs this latest Pwc whitewash actually presented as a Business Plan? I just heard it described as a ‘report’.
Interesting, no it isn’t being described as a business-plan.
Also the language in the BBC report is a bit on the “strident” side with no direct quotes- companies like PWC don’t do “strident”, leaves them open for all kinds of legal action if the roof later falls in on the project.
I wonder who leaked it, on the figures we’ve seen so far it certainly hasn’t helped out Edwin, the Shinners and the rest of the pro-Mazers .
Posted by on Feb 20, 2008 @ 08:13 PMFor Maze read Wembley.
Massive cost overuns and never likely to be viable without a major input from public funds.
Even in Belfast it is a non starter.
Why would the GAA and Rugby give money to this project from their own income streams when they have acceptable facilites already?
STOP THIS MADNESS NOW!
Posted by on Feb 21, 2008 @ 09:19 AMFirstly What happens to part of the Maze is a separate issue to the stadium. The both should not be linked and a decision on one made because of the other. One could in fact detract from the other.
GeorgeWithout large amounts of public money, this project will sink in a sea of debt.
It is a complete non starter. The only model that I can think of that would make a stadium viable is one that maximises ancillary usage and spin off development. The sports side will never pay for this venture especially with the necessary infra structure costs.
Willowfield
Here’s a question - if the Maze is going to be such a money-spinner, why are private investors not queuing up to build it and why the need for £240m of taxpayers’ money?Not one penny of public funds should be put into this, and no private developer will consider this project in that location without unnecessary and massive inducement. However given the right framework I could see developers being interested in other sites, provided they were constructively assisted by the Planning Service rather than hindered. To make this work you need comprehensive development, incorporating, bars, perhaps cinemas, hotels, shops, restaurants, offices, residential and you need to be able to hold concerts as well as sporting activity. It needs to be a high density development, and high usage day and night right in the middle of Belfast. A development that is used 7 days a week and 365 days a year. A place for people with accommodation and varied activity.
If that is the sort of criteria there will be plenty of developers interested.
Same applies to the Maze prison do it right and widen the scope and it will then get visitors, but we need to think outside the box and do something clever.
The last thing NI needs is two ventures that are a drain on the public purse.
The maze site just sell it for housing, it is so obvious that it really is a no brainer.
Posted by on Feb 21, 2008 @ 09:52 AMSammy Morse
Denial, self-delusion and bullshit are the three pillars of the Northern Ireland economy.
NI Business, what little there is of it, knows we are screwed. Wish the same could be said for NI Civil Service and Politicians.
Posted by on Feb 21, 2008 @ 09:57 AMWhy would the GAA and Rugby give money to this project from their own income streams when they have acceptable facilites already?
Fair point on Casement, but Ravenhill is rank.
The maze site just sell it for housing, it is so obvious that it really is a no brainer.
That probably isn’t such an attractive proposition just at the moment, and if you think the property market is in the state I think it is, it may not be for a year or two.
Posted by on Feb 21, 2008 @ 10:11 AMSammy Morse
The housing market has hit the rocks at the minute but we should comparing the decline against sharp increases.
Good housing in the right location will sell and between Lisburn and Hillsborough should be sufficiently attractive.Given the changes in Secondary education who knows may even be attractive to postcode selection.
There is a shortage of development land sell it for housing as & when we are on the next rise. The real worry on housing is will there be a severe recession but unless that happens about 20% drop is likely However with interest rates low and falling, reasonable levels of employment and a shortage of good family homes don’t expect houses to fall much beyond that. The real problem at the minute is the credit squeeze and poor standards of operation in banking.
Posted by on Feb 21, 2008 @ 10:45 AMSammy
Ravenhill v Windsor I know where I would want to go!
Acceptable does not mean good it means acceptable and I think Ravenhill is acceptable for 10,000 crowds apart from the lack of parking.
Posted by on Feb 21, 2008 @ 11:37 AMVery disappointing performance by the Assembly committee today. They gave Poots an easy ride.
They didn’t query the huge costs.
They didn’t query the assumptions about spectator numbers, number and types of events, and revenue.
They didn’t ask about transport.
They didn’t ask about environmental impacts.
Posted by on Feb 21, 2008 @ 01:03 PMGeorge: “IFSC employs nearly 25,000 people”
Are you sure - I work there occassionally and it is about the same size as the financial bits around Belfast City Hall. I’d say 2,500 would be closer.
Posted by on Feb 21, 2008 @ 02:16 PMP&J;“So you pretend that you don’t support terrorism yet want to keep this terrorist shrine. Well at least we finally know where you really stand regarding these murderers.”
I don’t support terrorism. Nor do I support the expunging of history, or the destruction of historically significant sites. I had the harrowing privilege of visiting Auschwitz once, which was the site of evil on a scale far beyond anything associated with the Maze. I’m glad the Polish government has kept it. I’m glad there will be a permanent memorial site at Ground Zero. I’m glad the observatory at Hiroshima has been preserved. I’m glad Kilmainham Gaol and the Tower of London and Robben Island and Alcatraz are all open to the public. I’m glad the Crown Bar is protected. I’m extremely sorry that the incomparable Kitchen Bar is no more. I’m sorry the Taliban blew up the giant Buddhas. I’m sorry the Chinese are systematically deconstructing Llasa as we speak.I’m a big fan of preserving history, you see. I’m a big believer in letting future generations make up their own minds about what happened. I’m opposed to destroying the evidence.
Nothing whatsoever to do with a “shrine”. Is Alcatraz a “shrine”?
Posted by on Feb 21, 2008 @ 03:27 PMNothing whatsoever to do with a “shrine”. Is Alcatraz a “shrine”?
Are there former inmates of Alcatraz, and supporters of those inmates, who wish to turn it into a shrine?
No, I don’t think so.
Are there former inmates of the Maze, and supporters of those inmates, who wish to turn it into a shrine?
Yes.
Posted by on Feb 21, 2008 @ 03:41 PMAnd what, they are the ones who get to decide this, are they?
Would YOU regard it as a shrine? I presume you wouldn’t. Yet you seem to defer to those who would?I wouldn’t. Clearly it’s a site of historical significance. That’s all. To destroy it would be an act of self-destruction. And that goes for everyone, regardless of how you’d regard the site.
Posted by on Feb 21, 2008 @ 04:03 PMDo you mean are there former inmates of Alcatraz who want to turn it into a museum? Well here’s the thing - it already is one!
The word shrine is a word bandied about by Unionists only, there will be a museum at the maze as there should be due to the momentous events which happened there.
Understandably many unionists wish to purge history of anything that might be viewed as republican or show unionism in a bad light (which involves purging a lot of history). They bleat on about terrorist shrines, as if the lingo makes a difference.
It doesn’t - the days of Unionist soundbites and never never never are long gone, you can call it what you like, you can call our politicians names, and use inuendo as fact - and it won’t make a lick of difference. Republicanism is a legitimate political ideology and we will have our memorials whether you want us to or not.
The reaction to this thread is hilarious - pavlovian almost. An example would be the talk of infrastructure (or lack of it in Lisburn) so what we need is a bunch of roads and rail links going to a giant field in the arse hole of nowhere - only then we can build a stadium because the infrastructure is already there.
The talk of Belfast’s existing infrastructure is total balls, in the past year this town has been gridlocked twice for about 4 hours, once due to one car accident on the M2. It takes me over an hour to drive five miles to work how the fuck is this town supposed to handle the extra people? I can just see an extra 15000 cars making no difference to our traffic.
On the other hand there’s the maze - M1 and trainlines right beside the site. OK as yet they haven’t magically extended themselves to go into the maze site, but I think we’d need to put something at the maze before we start extending the road network into an empty prison.
On the flipside of that how do the 15,000 cars get to Ormeau Park? Which main road? Which train station do the thousands of fans expect to use? It’s a joke, knee jerk reaction.
At the end of the day do we want a stadium? I think if you’re going to define this place as a country maybe one decent stadium might be in order. So do you expect it for free? No we need to pay something, and try to earn money back to pay for it. Is it cheaper at the Maze? A thousand times yes.
So if they said let’s build a stadium in the center of town at twice the cost would the NI fans here complain? Would they fuck, the only reason money matters, is because they ain’t getting what they want.
Posted by on Feb 21, 2008 @ 04:07 PMAt the end of the day do we want a stadium?
No and we don’t need one either.
Bung the 37 million, split three ways to the three different sports, it’ll work out a lot cheaper in the long run that either a White Elephant at the Maze or any alternative in Belfast. Or nobody gets anything and just leave it up to the IFA to sort out their own mess.Republicanism is a legitimate political ideology and we will have our memorials whether you want us to or not.
If you want to build a memorial honouring your brave heroes who delivered us La Mon, Enniskillen etc feel free to do so, but with your money and out of the sight of decent people.Posted by on Feb 21, 2008 @ 07:16 PMWillowfield
Very disappointing performance by the Assembly committee today. They gave Poots an easy ride.
They didn’t query the huge costs.
They didn’t query the assumptions about spectator numbers, number and types of events, and revenue.
They didn’t ask about transport.
They didn’t ask about environmental impacts.
The longer this Assembly runs the clearer it becomes that these people do not have the necessary ability to run this place, and that the structures permit complacency utter mediocrity.
Posted by on Feb 21, 2008 @ 10:09 PMAnonymous
“Bung the 37 million, split three ways to the three different sports, it’ll work out a lot cheaper in the long run that either a White Elephant at the Maze or any alternative in Belfast.”This is a fair point. They’re building a new 5,000 seat stand with state-of-the-art ancillary facilities at Healy Park in Omagh in a £5 million development. How much would it cost to build three new yellowpack stands at Windsor? Couldn’t it be done on the cheap? Say £15m?
Posted by on Feb 21, 2008 @ 11:00 PMHow much would it cost to build three new yellowpack stands at Windsor? Couldn’t it be done on the cheap? Say £15m?
BP
It seems to me that the IFA and especially Howard Wells have serious delusions of grandeur- they want a state of the art stadium without of course the IFA paying the price.So yes, do the necessary upgrade on the cheap meeting the basic safety standards and sod the aesthetics, I’d say that would fall well below 20 million quid.
The NI supporters have demonstrated their opposition to the Maze, OK, then let them stay at a cheap and basic bucket-seated Windsor which is fit for purpose. If they want more luxury, then they pay for the via bond schemes as happened with several of the bigger clubs in England.
Bottom line is that the construction of and maintenance of sports stadiums, is not our main priority at the minute. 200 plus million is too big a gamble.
Posted by on Feb 22, 2008 @ 07:25 AM
