Friday, December 15, 2006
Lewsley to be next Children’s Commissioner…
It’s been the subject of a very quiet whisper for the last few days, but the BBC 11 O’Clock news this morning confirms that Patricia Lewsley is to be the new Childrens Commissioner. We are reliably informed that all ministerial and other procedures have been followed. So hopefully no judicial reviews this time round. We understand that OFMDFM are busy putting together a press release as we speak. The SDLP press office was unavailable for comment. But the loss of Lewsley as sitting MLA in Lagan Valley certainly leaves a door hanging wide open for them.
Mick Fealty @ 11:22 AM
Mick
Nice to meet you briefly at Steve’s party last night. Haven’t had a chance to look at the site in detail yet mate but will do over the weekend.
regards
Georgie Mac
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 11:45 AMSF’s Paul Butler will fancy his chances.
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 11:49 AMis this a sign of the sdlp stalwarts seeing the writing Sean Farre, now this were does Alex Attwood go
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 11:56 AMElvis,
Agree on Butler. There might be money to be made here.
JK,
Winning 5 seats in one constituency is a big ask surely? Even if it is West Belfast.
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 11:59 AMMick for a while now I have been saying that the SDLP were under presure in at least three constituencies Lagan Valley, WB an North Antrim so its two down and heres hoping. I suppose its more out of hope than science really
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 12:06 PMI think there is definately a problem for them in North Antrim and now in Lagan Valley. But last time out in West Belfast, SF found it difficult with five to manage the vote to the tight margin that would have allowed them keep Dodds out. With incumbency she is likely to be safe.
Attwood is probably safe too. SF did a good job getting their support to spread their preferences away from Adams last time out. It nearly got them a fifth seat, but it would have been partly courtesy of that split Unionist vote. Attwood’s incumbency clear stance on policing should segment the electorate there sufficiently to get him back safely.
I would have thought that Upper Bann holds some possibilities for Sinn Fein though. It could be worth reviewing again after the SDLP selection meeting in January.
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 12:48 PMAll discussion about the loss of two very able and senior people from the ranks of the SDLP in areas where SF is breathing down their necks aside - Patricia always seems a pretty decent person and should make a good fist of it - the sad death of Nigel Williams has left a big gap - and it will be a hard job to bring his focus to this.
It does look a bit iffy - the SDLP are well represented across quangoland - but she has a job of work to show that there will be no party political agenda and no favours for her mates in the SDLP.
Just imagine the uproar if it had been a shinner.
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 12:50 PMIs anyone else fascinated by the number of politicians who drop their poltiical commitments rapidly in exchange for a job, be it the speakership or a quango? I do wonder about the political commitment of lots of the NI political elite. When their party needed them most, a number have jumped ship. This is not of course to say that politicians shouldn’t get other jobs, but just that quite often it seems that they take a defeatist attitude and jump at the first chance, unlike in Britain where they at least wait to lose their seats first.
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 12:51 PMGaribaldy - the essential difference is that in GB there is the possibility of exercising political power....
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 12:55 PMElvis,
Which, theoretically at least, there will be come March, or shortly thereafter. Also, given that NI politics has had an added moral flavour and often required extra commitment in difficult circumstances, I find it even more odd.
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 12:58 PMGaribaldy
Right now I wouldnt risk a fiver on there being elections. And as for a working Executive in March or ‘shortly afterwards’ - is that a pig flying past outside my window?Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 01:11 PMGaribaldy
“given that NI politics has had an added moral flavour...”
LOL!
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 01:14 PM<a >here’s</a> the OFMDFM press statement on the issue
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 01:59 PMElvis,
Do you seriously doubt there’ll be a devolved government here in the short to medium term? I don’t. I have faith in the hunger for power of our politicians of all hues.
BonarLaw,
I did think about putting moral in inverted commas, perhaps moralising would have been a better phrase.
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 02:07 PMAll of UUP, SDLP, and Alliance have now lost their big hitters in Lagan Valley over the last 3 years. There is therefore an interesting possiblity for new people to emerge. UUP have this Basil McCrea, while it remains to emerge who Alliance and SDLP will choose.
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 02:59 PMGaribaldy
Its probably just the dark days of December - I promise to be upbeat in the New Year. However.. giving the last few years it is hard to be optimisitic. Maybe by next autumn......Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 03:16 PMElvis,
Not full of Xmas cheer then I see. What’s another
6 months after the last 10 years of dancing about?Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 03:22 PMApparently Alliance have selected Trevor Lunn. Can’t see him winning a seat. Brian Heading will have a tough fight against Butler, but I reckon that transfers will probably see him through. If Heading gets incumbancy, he will be much much harder to shift than Lewsley is/was for SF.
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 05:32 PMMichael, if Brian wins in March, why would he be harder to shift by SF than Lewsley would?
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 07:21 PMApparently Alliance have selected Trevor Lunn. Can’t see him winning a seat. Brian Heading will have a tough fight against Butler, but I reckon that transfers will probably see him through. If Heading gets incumbancy, he will be much much harder to shift than Lewsley is/was for SF.
Michael
Patricia’s jump was undoubtedly influenced (if only partially) by her own reading of her electoral position. Sinn Fein’s Paul Butler surpassed her on first preferences in 2003, and by last year’s Westminster election she was 500 votes adrift of Butler.
With Sinn Fein’s vote only likely to rise further in the constituency- given the overall mood within nationalism and, more crucially, the demographic growth of the strongly republican Lagmore area within the consitituency in the past 2 years, Lewsley has decided to get out whilst she could.
And, by the way, I’d like to wish her good luck in her new post.
The SDLP are in a terrible predicament in Lagan Valley now. With no candidate with any semblance of a profile, the party must choose between Brian Heading- an able but completely unknown first time councillor from the strongly republican Dunmurry Cross end of the consitituency- and/ or a parachute candidate, with Tim Attwood’s name being floated by a number of sources.
Either way, Sinn Fein are clearly in pole position in Lagan Valley for the solitary nationalist seat on offer.
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 11:04 PMWith Lewsley gone and the transfer repugnance of Paul Butler from Sinn Fein there is a real chance of a fourth DUP seat.
Lewsley gone, Butler beaten, four for the DUP. No nationalists is Lisburn!
Posted by on Dec 16, 2006 @ 12:26 AMI suppose it would be asking too much from the SDLP not to parachute anyone in. It is a sign of the party being finished when it decided to drop someone in. The SDLP are stuck for candidates in Lagan Valley. But surely parachuting the SDLP’s Tim Attwood in is a serious sign of weakness by the SDLP. I agree Heading has only started to build his profile but is he not now the senior Cllr for the SDLP?
Anyway Butler must be rubbing his hands hoping its Tim Attwood.Posted by on Dec 16, 2006 @ 01:59 PMI think Cllr Heading would stand a good chance at getting the seat in Lagan Valley even more so than if Patricia Lewsley was to stand again.
I suspect Lewsley conseeds that she herself may not hold the seat or she is just fed up. Plus, whats her new salary? £75K or something?
Heading has a good profile within Dunmurry Cross, but is not known across Lagan Valley. He is very able and could get a strong message across.
I do suspect that he would win on transfers.
I don’t believe Sinn Fein have much of a chance here. However their eventual, yet belated, decision on Policing may create a more positive outcome for them.
I’m not sure Trevor Lunn will hold the same vote as Seamus Close whose vote collapsed in 2003 and indeed who held a great personal vote. This may work to the advantage of the SDLP. Lunn has been picked (has he yet though?) because he currently has a profile being Lord Mayor.
Posted by on Dec 16, 2006 @ 05:54 PMI was hesitant to make any comment on this issue, and I want to be as fair as possible.
However, I was really struck by reading Ms Lewsley’s background and qualification for the job. She qualified as a cook and has an interest in children.
I have an interest in the Orange Order, but lack many of the qualities required to be Grand Master and dont aspire to the job!
Obviously we dont know the field of candidates, and there is every chance ms Lewsely was the best person on the day. But knowing some of the very fine people in Northern Ireland who have dedicated their professionals lives to chilrens’ welfare and who are experts in the areas of concern, I must admit to being a little surprised at the level of entry to this position.
Unless there is something that isnt in the public domain that qualifies Ms Lewsley for this job, other than a kindly interest in children, I think its very worrying that this post wasnt filled by someone with solid expertise in the area.
Posted by on Dec 18, 2006 @ 12:56 PMShame on you Miss Fitz. Suggesting that quango jobs should be appointed on the basis of expertise rather than other, inevitably political, criteria.
Posted by on Dec 18, 2006 @ 01:50 PM
