Friday, May 02, 2008
Labour’s crisis begins in earnest…
It’s no longer a secret. Gordon Brown is in serious difficulties. Trailing the Tories by a full 21 percentage points is a smack in the face that the party may have anticipated, but seem remarkably unprepared for. Local parties building their strategy around a Brown and Labour government would be well advised to dust off their Plan B, bring into play. Poverty of ambition is a much a part of this embarrassing defeat as the competent and energetic campaigning of the Tories.
Mick Fealty @ 07:28 AM
>The rise of the BNP in these rsults has not been overly commented on but of all the parties they have seen the greatest live 33 seats up from 21 - an amazing 57% increase.<
Thank you for that information, it is the first time I have seen it anywhere. Is there a deliberate policy in the media of completely downplaying the rise of the BNP?
I seem to recall a decade or so back one BNP councillor got elected in East London and the BBC almost went into meltdown, you’d have sworn it was Kristalnacht all over again but this time the BNP seems to have completely disappeared off the media radar.
Posted by on May 03, 2008 @ 12:58 AMLabour’s apparent demise and the Tory rise will probably seen by most nationalists as disappointing - though this only relates to their view on the national question as opposed to economic isssues.
I think there is some basis for concern as elements of GFA/STA oblige Britian to find common ground with ROI - a Tory govenement playing the British card might be tempted into a more pro-union stace on Non Iron e.g. on the recent flags issue. I think the Irish government slipped up here in the negotiations for GFA/STA by not spelling out this co-operation between the governments further.
Dewi,
some strange results for PC - Caerphilly up 6 and Gwynedd losing 8 ( torygraph said they lost 15?)
and what happened to the great Wales (Ospreys )team against Edinburgh? It really looks like international rugby is a level below the regions.Posted by on May 03, 2008 @ 12:38 PMCameron became leader of the Conservatives solely because of his plasticky, Blair-clone nature. The Tories reckoned if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em.
Debbie, Brown did have a few good moments early in his leadership. He came over well during the attempted terrorist attacks last year, and I think his first meeting with Bush got the balance right and began to redress the UK’s “poodle” relationship with the US under Blair. At that time I remember looking forward to a period of relatively stable, spin-free government without any crazy foreign policy ventures.
I do not accept that the 10p tax crisis was caused by the backbenchers. What happened was that people got their paypackets in April and found that there was less money in them, courtesy of HM Revenue. I think people were angry that their politicians didn’t show leadership on this when they should have done, a year ago. Others, like myself, received our paypackets and found that we had more money, again courtesy of HM Revenue. At a time where certain aspects of the public sector are suffering from underfunding, and where the minimum wage barely provides a dignified subsistence, the idea that the better off need to be rewarded with a discount on their tax bill is repugnant to those of us with a social conscience. The media figured this out and went in for the kill, and the Labour left backbenchers relished the opportunity to embarass the government as well as cover up the fact that they failed to resist this change when Blair was in control.
It’s very hard for me to understand what demographic Brown was trying to appeal to when he abolished the 10p rate. Sure, giving me a tax discount might cheer me up, but then slapping more duty on my petrol will quickly dispel any positive impression I might have. They say that Blair knew that the 10p removal was a loser, but he didn’t fight it knowing that Gordon would have to clean up the mess. It’s looking increasingly like he is having the last laugh of the Labour leadership campaign.
The biggest negative characteristic to me about Brown’s government is the policy of strategic procrastination on key issues. Blair’s administration was characterized by a PR-led approach driven by spin. Brown’s approach of leaking to test the water is darker and more cynical. At least with Blair you knew what you were going to get. Brown’s problem now is the public perception that his party needs a spell out of office before it can become a viable political force again, a perception which will be very hard to turn around; meanwhile the Conservatives, particularly through their success in London, seem to have been successful in breaking with the past and making themselves electable again.
Posted by on May 03, 2008 @ 01:16 PMIWSMCNTDI,
‘Labour’s apparent demise and the Tory rise will probably seen by most nationalists as disappointing’
Not really. It was after all the Tories who abolished Stormont . Labour dithered . The constitutional issue within NI will not be affected onw way or the other by who governs the local councils within Britain.
Economically -unionists may have more to fear from a return to Tory Government in particular given the bloated public service sector within NI.
It’s a problem that will have to be tackled sooner or later if NI is ever to become ‘fit enough ‘ to be allowed join the Republic :) or even opt for independence.
Posted by on May 03, 2008 @ 01:23 PMCS,
‘Brown’s problem now is the public perception that his party needs a spell out of office before it can become a viable political force again, a perception which will be very hard to turn around;’
True - There is a chance that the American election result may favour Brown but other than that the next 2 years to the General Election are looking like a long and lonely road with THIS WAY THE END signs posted at every intersection.
‘Meanwhile the Conservatives, particularly through their success in London, seem to have been successful in breaking with the past and making themselves electable again. ‘
Unless of course Boris drags the ship down by some scandal or two or three .
Anyway 10 years is long enough in power for any party . The important part for makinf democracy work is having an alternative ready and waiting .
For 50 years in Northern Ireland there was no alternative and despite all the hyped up changes they still seem to favour having no ‘alternative’ Government. Democracy is a spectrum in most western countries . In Northern Ireland it’s more of a mirage viewed through a prism on a cloudy day .
Pity about Ken Livingstone though . He did his best for the city and certainly deserves his place in history as the first popularly elected mayor of what is still one of the worlds greatest cities .
Posted by on May 03, 2008 @ 01:40 PMGreenflag,
My reference to labour’s demise was a reference to what seems likely to happen at Westminster - the Tories will be odds on favorites now.
I take your point about abolition of Stormont but most statements by Tories in more recent history take a more pro-union view of Non Iron than Labour and although there will be no drastic changes there may be at least some attempt for them to live up to what their name is ( or used to be ) the Conservative and Unionist Party.
Posted by on May 03, 2008 @ 01:42 PMSurprised that Dewi reckons that it was a good reult for Plaid, perhaps I miss something.
Not quite sure what the spectre of the Tory on the horizon means for Scotland. Will this finally give the ditherers a reason to finally end UK inc. Or as I fear push some into an unthinking “just vote labour to keep the tories out” About as useful as an ashtray on a motorbike in Scotland as there are gey few Tories to keep out.
Posted by on May 03, 2008 @ 01:51 PMPrince,
although not a fan of Tories I think that there will be feck all differnce between Labour and Tories under Cameron - memories of Thatcher in Scotland may diminish over time - and fear of another poll tax or higland clearances may not be realised.
Posted by on May 03, 2008 @ 02:04 PMNow Sammy you may know that and I may know that. Fear though is the great emotion here, it focuses the minds, people either act like sheep, or totally unpredictable. I don’t know how the factoring in of a growing political maturity, and the safety of an SNP government perhaps in perpetuity (it seems given the ineptitude of opposition) will affect matters. I would have bitten your hand of for a Scottish government in Edinburgh and Tories in London, a guaranteed swing for the SNP. With things going so well though, I am not so sure our steamroller needs this distraction.
Posted by on May 03, 2008 @ 02:27 PM“Dewi,
some strange results for PC - Caerphilly up 6 and Gwynedd losing 8 ( torygraph said they lost 15?)”
Gwynedd proposed to shut half their primary schools in the year b4 an election..........hmmm - A bunch of nationalist dissoes called Llais Gwynedd (Gwynedd Voice) gained a dozen seats - but we are still only 2 off a majority with a by-election in Blaenau Ffestiniog in a couple of weeks.
I’m from Caerffili and it’s 32 each between us and Labour with 9 independents (including Ron Davies !!!)- Fascinating negotiations in progress (3 Plaid councillors in my home village of Newbridge - sweet !!)“Surprised that Dewi reckons that it was a good reult for Plaid, perhaps I miss something”
207 councillors Tony - the best Plaid result in World History. Will be part of administation in Ynys Mon, Gwynedd, Carmarthenshire, Conwy, Denbighshire, Wrexham, Caerffili, Ceredigion and...wait for it - Cardiff!!! (7 councillors in Cardiff !!!)
Gained 15 councillors in Carmarthenshire - such movement just does not happen in rural Wales - brilliant. We just didn’t spin it very well methinks - but I’m not bothered about that particularly.
Posted by on May 03, 2008 @ 05:46 PMDewi,
Must say didnt pick up how well PC did. Those qarefellahs in Gwynedd done good as well - PC must have buggered up there badly. Potential for growth in Kaydiff must be quite good - would have my voted for them myself if I had remembered.
Posted by on May 03, 2008 @ 06:00 PM“would have my voted for them myself if I had remembered.”
Oh Sammy - I’m not friends anymore......
Posted by on May 03, 2008 @ 06:14 PMDewi,
thats a shame but I suppose these internet relationships never last.
Posted by on May 03, 2008 @ 06:25 PMIt’s terrible that a dilletante clown could beat Ken. For all his faults he had substance, strategy and determination. I suspect that we’ll be paying a few more billion for their blasted Olympics........
Posted by on May 03, 2008 @ 06:28 PMLOL Sammy - fancy a date:)
Posted by on May 03, 2008 @ 06:33 PMITSMNWDI,,
‘the Tories will be odds on favorites now.’
A week is a long time in politics -Two years an eternity . And there is Scotland . A resurgent Tory Party will keep the political birds from resting too easily on their perches . Maybe no bad thing .
Posted by on May 03, 2008 @ 06:34 PM‘but I suppose these internet relationships never last.’
LOL :)
Posted by on May 03, 2008 @ 06:35 PMDewi,
thee and me have just broken up - so no date.
re. Ken. Have to say I like Boris though disappointed that Ken is gone. Presumably the serious business of transport and police will come from policy at Tory central office - but Ken’s legacy on transport policy based on what the plain man on the Clapham omnibus wants will continue or Boris will actually be on his bike next time.
It is strange that the only really effective left winger left in the party has probably lost office because labour have moved too far to the right and seems indistingusiable from the Tories to many people who I think are now just voting for the Real Thing.
Posted by on May 03, 2008 @ 07:12 PMDewi
Perhaps I am spoiled in Scotland, how many seats did the other parties pick up? I got the impression that the Tories and fib-dem’s benefited more.
Posted by on May 04, 2008 @ 07:43 AMTony - Tories did benefit more but from a much lower base. There’s gains / losses and total Councillors.
+/- Total
LAB -122 344
CON 62 173
PC 33 207
LD 21 162
OTH 6 378Posted by on May 04, 2008 @ 07:58 AMDewi
Plaid only managed to take just over a quarter of the gains. Looking to other English based parties as an alternative, rather than trusting Welsh people to look after Wales is a worry.
Posted by on May 04, 2008 @ 11:17 AMWe ain’t as strong as you but some real strategic gains which might sound minor but of real import.
4 Councillors in Wrexham - first ever
2 Councillors in Newport
7 Councillors in Cardiff (Labour have 13)There’s a model by a clever bloke from Aber called Dennis Balsom who divided Wales into three areas by language, demography and voting habits.
1) Welsh speaking Wales Ceredigion, Carmarthen, Meirionydd, Arfon and Ynys Mon - Plaid in front with Labour and Lib Dem pockets.
2) Welsh Wales - South Wales Valleys - Labour dominant with Plaid challenging. That’s about 9 constiuencies from Llanelli in the West to Torfaen in the East through Bridgend, Maesteg, Rhondda, Aberdare, Caerphilly, Merthyr and Islwyn.
3) British Wales - Along the South Wales coast - Newport, Cardiff, Swansea and coastal English speaking Clwyd. Most of the Marches of Powys.
A more British type of election with Tories, Labour and LibDems fighting it out - a bigger tendency to Labour than in English equivalent seats. Negligible Plaid supportThe importance of the seats above is that we are now breaking into British Wales for the first time ever. Becoming a truly national party. Agree there’s a way to go though!!!!
Posted by on May 04, 2008 @ 11:33 AMPerhaps I did not previously get the significance of these results. Though in the long run it is numbers that count. Is there any way these introductions will potentially lead to bigger and better things? Is there some kind of progression, or just an anti-Labour protest?
Posted by on May 04, 2008 @ 11:42 AMI think there’s progression, Certain there is more of a national feeling now than since a long time ago. 1400 to be precise.
Posted by on May 04, 2008 @ 12:01 PM
