Sunday, January 07, 2007
It’ll happen
In an RTE radio interview DUP MP, Jeffrey Donaldson has said he believes a power-sharing Executive will be achieved.
Fair Deal @ 12:44 PM
Henry94
To return to the point in hand I am encouraged that Donaldson is talking so positively about the possibilities for devolution this year and the need to be getting on with important social and economic questions. I don’t much care if its March or September but I would like to see this thing resolved. I believe that it is getting closer and the fuss over the last few days is actually a sign of the changes that are coming.
What is slightly boring is how everyone (on both sides) still seems so keen to take cheap negative shots at the other side.
Posted by on Jan 07, 2007 @ 10:15 PMBP1078, if it is a straight sectarian headcount then the latest figures from the NI Statistics office which updated the population figures to the end of 2004 returned the following:
53.1% of the population had a protestant background and 43.8% of the population had a Catholic background.If people vote, as is generally the case in NI, along the Catholic = Nationalist and Protestant = Unionist then it is very likely that the Nationalist (Catholic) population will be the Majority community within the next 10years or so.
You will find that the Protestant community in the over 55years age group is the majority and that the Catholic Community is the majority in the under 35years age group with the inbetween being somewhat even.
In all likelyhood the elderly will die first and with them the Protestant majority. Would you therefore like to guess the outcome?
Unionists, and inparticulaly the DUPs, continuous denial of equality to Catholics will force them to seek refuge in a UI, therefore Unionists need to urgently change their ways if they are to win over the large numbers of Catholics they have always claimed would vote for the union to stay.
Posted by on Jan 07, 2007 @ 10:49 PMUnionism is a political position. If people don’t vote for it then they can’t be counted as unionists. So if you insist on including the non-voters the unionist population is well under 50%. As is of course the nationalist population.
Henry94, it’s pretty obvious that this is not what the lib2016 meant. I interpreted it as a “soon we’ll be a majority and we’ll kick their asses” comment. Nationalist majoritarianism isn’t going to work any better than unionist majoritarianism did.
Nationalist:
If people vote, as is generally the case in NI, along the Catholic = Nationalist and Protestant = Unionist then it is very likely that the Nationalist (Catholic) population will be the Majority community within the next 10years or so.
Firstly, I’m pretty sure the census count is skewed. The census takers estimated the religious background of people where they ticked the “I’m neither a prod nor a taig” box.
Secondly, looking at the election results, the nationalist vote increased by 0.2% on average between 1997 and 2005. By my reckoning, if that trend continues it will take another 40-odd years for there to be a majority who vote nationalist. Can you tell me where you’re getting this “10 years” thing ?
Furthermore, there have been various studies over the years which have suggested in a referendum on the union, unionist voters may not necessarily vote for the union, and (more frequently) nationalist voters may not necessarily vote for reunification. Nobody can say either way.
Posted by on Jan 07, 2007 @ 11:16 PMUnionists, and inparticulaly the DUPs, continuous denial of equality to Catholics will force them to seek refuge in a UI ---
are they still coming up with this old bollocks
wish they could tell me what law or right that a protestant have that a catholic does notPosted by on Jan 08, 2007 @ 12:04 AMComrade Stalin, you are correct that theCensus people did make an estimate but that was based on a number of factors in order to make it as accurate as possible.
The 10 year thing is based on the fact that the Nationalist population rose by some 5.42% between 1991 and 2004, and that the over 55 Year age group is likely to die before younger people. The over 55 years age group is where the Protestant population has its majority whilst the Catholic population has a majority in the under the under 35 years age group.
Based on those facts then about 10 years or so the population would change from the current Protestant majority to being that of a Catholic
majority. As the elderly Protestant majority dies so it is then replaced by a younger Catholic majority. Year on year the swing would be increasing.Obviously when it comes to voting then people have to go out and vote and this is were the problems are in that many people are not registering.
You are of course correct that no one can truely say how any single person will vote in the event of a referendum. But at the end of the day the population is becoming more balanced in % terms, in the 1970s Unionists continually spoke of the Catholic population being about 30% and how most of them would vote for the union as they knew they would be better off.
That presumtion was still being put out by Trimble only a few years ago, I believe he stated that two thirds of Catholics would vote for the union, which makes you wonder why they always tell the Protestant voter they must vote for them to protect the union.
All in all the Catholic population will be the majority community in the six counties in 10 years or so and at that time someone will have to decide whether there is to be referendum, which will then be held every 7 years thereafter until re-unification.
Posted by on Jan 08, 2007 @ 12:17 AMExuup, lets see - how about the right to parade through areas that are deemed to be Protestant districts or Protestant towns. I believe there was a request for a Republican parade through Ballymena but Ian Paisley objected and the Parades Commission upheld the objection.
Equality means being equal and have the same rights and privileges as all other citizens and therefore if Loyalist parades are entitled to walk down roads - through areas which are 100% Catholic and those parades are not wanted then surely Republicans should be allowed to parade likewise?
I believe however that the Republican parade wanted to parade through a mixed area and not through a 100% Protestant area.
The DUPs Ian Paisley Jnr objected on the grounds that these parades had no place being in a Protestant town like Ballymena, yet the DUP has no problem backing Unionist terrorists shotting up Belfast in order to get a parade through Catholic Springfield Road and still demands to walk through the Garvaghy Road where they are not wanted.
Or do you support the right of Nationalists and Republicans to be able to walk through Protestant areas in the same way as Unionists demand to go through Catholic areas?
Posted by on Jan 08, 2007 @ 12:28 AMBP1078,
there were 100,000 less votes for unionist parties in 2005 than there were 20 years ago.This can be put down to the Garden centre Prod tendency to a certain degree but it still has to be a major concern for unionism as a political ideology.
400,000 odd voters on an island of 6 million plus.
JEB,
I think this Irish and British thing of which you speak simply hasn’t materialised. I thought it might but it simply hasn’t.Or could you show me an Irish person from north of the border who has got in touch with his/her Britishness since 1998 to such an extent that he/she broadcasts it?
Posted by on Jan 08, 2007 @ 12:43 AMGeorge, There are a couple of 100,000 of them. They may not believe they are Irish but every time they leave here to go abroad everyone will always say to them “Your Irish” to which of course they reply NO I’m British!.
Wereas the rest of the world are happy referring to the country they were born and identify with. Its funny how the English, Scots and Welsh never refer to themselves in that way, maybe becausse they all have their own cultures which don’t come from the back page of a newspaper.
Posted by on Jan 08, 2007 @ 01:08 AMThe DUP have an opportunity to do one of two things here, as has been said, give SF an leg up for the election in the south or hit them a slap.
The temptation of giving them a slap would be too much to fight off, even if they tried to fight it off, which they won’t.
That said, there is no-one better at exploiting Unionist ‘intransigence’ for political benefit than SF. Either way, I think the chances are that they’ll move to support the PSNI and side-step the DUP and build their brownie points (pardon the pun) with the two govts.
In the interim they can concentrate on shoring up their own base. After a period the DUP’s machinations will become ever more squeaky and their excuses less convincing.
Posted by on Jan 08, 2007 @ 03:21 AMIf people vote, as is generally the case in NI, along the Catholic = Nationalist and Protestant = Unionist then it is very likely that the Nationalist (Catholic) population will be the Majority community within the next 10years or so.
Nationalist,
That’s a big “if” and you’ve got no better a crystal ball than I have to see what’ll happen within the next three months never mind 10 years.The important figure is not the religious breakdown: a border poll wiil not be a sectarian headcount, but the punters actually going to the ballot box. If I were a nationalist, rather than relying on the old stale arguments, I’d be looking to see how I can make my vision of a United ireland more attractive to the 30-35 % who no longer vote and a bit less unpalatable to the those Unionists who do vote. That seems to be too difficult a task at the minute though doesn’t it?
(PS You may want to check those census figures again)George
there were 100,000 less votes for unionist parties in 2005 than there were 20 years ago.This can be put down to the Garden centre Prod tendency to a certain degree but it still has to be a major concern for unionism as a political ideology
Nevertheless, as the statistics show (and contrary to Nationalist’s assertions), this decline has been halted and to some extent reversed in the last 5 years.
However, as I’ve said there is no way of knowing what will happen with these figures over the next ten years; I suspect that both Unionism and Nationalism will both have to move into the 21st Century and start finding some real politics from somewhere.
Posted by on Jan 08, 2007 @ 06:19 AM400,000 odd voters on an island of 6 million plus
George,
Just seen this.
Invalid comparison:1. You’re comparing number of voters with the number of inhabitants.
2. ROI inhabitants/voters don’t vote in our elections.Posted by on Jan 08, 2007 @ 06:51 AMBP1076
If I were a nationalist, rather than relying on the old stale arguments, I’d be looking to see how I can make my vision of a United ireland more attractive to the 30-35 % who no longer vote and a bit less unpalatable to the those Unionists who do vote.
That’s the nub of the problem and the reverse for Unionists.
The sectarian head count is the divisive and why rely on one avenue?
I can imagine the new Unionist call to the ladies, “for Queen and country dear”. Wouldn’t be surprised if the UUP use it as their election logo.
Posted by on Jan 08, 2007 @ 07:49 AMjust a few pointers to calm down nationalist and others about voting trends. Yeah the Prods are older ...but older people are more likely to vote.
Yeah, there are possibly 100,000 garden centre prods, for whom Trimble sacrificed his political career in the vain hope that they would stick with him post referendum. But the coming decade will see the same phenomenon on the nationalist side-it’s already starting in south Belfast. Middle class taigs (except of course our posting friend Middle class taig)will be more concerned about getting their wedding photographs into the Tatler and buying designer specs from Geoff McConville than the fourth green field.Don’t , please think that the typical Roman Catholic will feel his heart beat faster as Easter 2016 looms on the horizon, and vote in one last heave to crush the Planters. On polling day, he’ll be too busy watching Manchester United v Burton Albion in the Conference on Sky, or having a skinny latte up the Lisburn Road.
Or, if I’m wrong, and the Union is up for grabs, what makes you think the inevitable strident cries from whatever the Shinners have evolved into won’t antagonise the garden centre Prods to the polling booths? In a referendum, even Bangor votes count.
Malachi O’Doherty is as perceptive as ever. The DUP will sit tight as long as they can, knowing that Brown will come in in a matter of weeks, Hain will be packing his bags, and the first thing Gordon does not want in his in tray will be a request for troops to be transferred from Iraq to control the pesky prods rioting against joint authority. Tony should have stayed in Miami.And the dance can start again in the autumn.
As for John EB’s opening pop. I don’t agree with Jeffrey’s emphasis on this, unless he’s been sent out to play the good cop role for HMG consumption. But as usual with pro-GFA people a smear covers up a lack of argument, and Jeffrey’s hands are clean on this.
If JD was opposed to any deal involving Sinn fein why did he stay in the talks until the very last minute and break on issues of prisoner-decommissioning linkage? Why did he try to hold the UUP to its own interpretation of the GFA? It was the UUP that repeatedly moved its position from Good Friday 1998-remember “No guns , no government”? Donaldson has arguably displayed a consistency greater than the leadership of both the DUP and the UUP so far as strategic goals are concerned. The reason the UUP hate him so much is that he showed up their complete lack of strategic thinking and tactical nous. I don’t expect him to be able to do the same for the DUP, but we’ll soon see.Posted by on Jan 08, 2007 @ 09:46 AM“We can’t read the minds of non-voters.
Posted by Henry94 on Jan 07, 2007 @ 10:03 PM”
but we are surely entitled to assume that anyone who cannot be bothered to register a vote against the status quo is content to see no change, and is therefore de facto passively unionist?
Posted by on Jan 08, 2007 @ 02:46 PMdarth,
Glad to see that we’ve moved on from the unending circular argument about statistics. At least we now know why certain DUP representatives were so interested in making sure that the votes of the old folk were cast, whether they knew it or not. ;-)
You make a good point about ‘passive’ unionism and people will be nervous of any change, particularly if both communities succeed in developing a more workable model for our longterm prosperity together.
My answer would be that we won’t be ready for reunification until Sinn Fein has had an opportunity to show that a Sinn Fein First Minister can and should act to represent the whole NI community.
Maskey did well in Belfast but it was only the beginning of a political process which is just as important as the building of a single economy on this island.
Whatever emerges in the future may be as far from the ideals of 1916 as current ideas of ‘Britishness’ are from the ideals of First World War British Imperialism.
Posted by on Jan 08, 2007 @ 03:53 PMCan you tell me where you’re getting this “10 years” thing ?
Because Gerry told them there’d be a united Ireland by the 100th anniversary of the Easter Rising, and some of them were gullible enough to believe him.
Tiocfadh ar lá!
Posted by on Jan 08, 2007 @ 04:59 PMlib2016
Glad to see that we’ve moved on from the unending circular argument about statistics
Yes, those damned facts and statistics, they have such a nasty habit of deconstructing myths don’t they?:)
Posted by on Jan 08, 2007 @ 06:36 PM“Or, if I’m wrong, and the Union is up for grabs, what makes you think the inevitable strident cries from whatever the Shinners have evolved into won’t antagonise the garden centre Prods to the polling booths? In a referendum, even Bangor votes count.”
Equally, Paisley or his successor might do something that looks like a throwback and an effective Yes campaign run by the Southern Government might pull in more people, the Shinner’s might have been doing at least an alright job in Government for a while and Scotland might go independent and change the terms of the debate. I know, mad thought, how about we wait until there is actually a referendum?
Posted by on Jan 08, 2007 @ 08:06 PM
