Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Is Sinn Fein the prospective meat in Bertie’s sangwich?
There is little doubt that Bertie Ahern has set the cat amongst the pigeons with his announcement that his party will look to organise in Northern Ireland. I’ve laid out a few extended thoughts on Comment is Free. Paul thinks that cross border developments of all kinds on and between these islands are good (and inevitably limited) and that Sir Reg should probably ‘chill’, or even seek out his own East West partnerships. And in AOB, Mitchel McLaughlin still wants his northern mandate recognised in the south (a measure of how unprepared they were for this change of tack?).
Mick Fealty @ 05:37 PM
mmm - excuse me - can someone square these two for me…
“On another front, I would welcome a merger between the Labour Party on both sides of the Irish Sea – and organising in the northern six counties of Ireland.”
“I can’t think of an example of where a political party from one territory – at a time of political change – has successfully exported itself to another one. Labour didn’t stand in the six counties – not only because the didn’t want to (though some of us did), but because it would be fruitless. We would have lost.”
Is this the doublespeak I hear of?
Posted by on Sep 18, 2007 @ 06:30 PMThis is how I described it above: “good (and inevitably limited)”
Posted by on Sep 18, 2007 @ 06:39 PMDon’t really understand how the 17 year old on the Orange Hall roof really fitted in with your analysis Mick. Sinn Fein condemn all such attacks unreservedly, and seemed a little out of place.
The interesting thing is about the DUP’s silence...is it “bring it on ?” or do they think Ahern could get FF to sell their economic message to the “Unionists”, who in a normal world would be “culturally” receptive to such a message.....It s also important to note that a “year long” internal debate is to be held on the nature of the party structure in NI.Posted by on Sep 18, 2007 @ 06:43 PM“has set the cat amongst the pigeons”
It’s left the DUP speechless by the looks of things on their website.
A cunning move which seems to have caught most politicos unaware.
For the want not to pun-out but Bertie needs to show us the colour of his money on this one.
To start a venture half hearted in Northern Ireland is to end up a failure so better not start at all unless it is led from the front by leaders and heavy hitters with the utmost charisma capturing all the vital elements of Northern Irish political life.
Posted by on Sep 18, 2007 @ 06:45 PMWouldn’t be surprised at all if Paisley was well-informed in advance - in fact would be more surprised if he wasn’t.
Posted by on Sep 18, 2007 @ 06:52 PM‘A cunning move which seems to have caught most politicos unaware.’
Not on Slugger though DC—I distinctly recall this scenario being discussed in the wake of the SF ROI election fiasco.
I’m not entirely sure why Unionism should have a problem with this. The entry of the fails and (maybe) the gales is likely to split the Nationalist vote, damage SF and make Unionism look united for perhaps the first time ever.
The obvious downside will be even more bloody election posters.Posted by on Sep 18, 2007 @ 06:53 PMThe only word I’ve heard from the DUP direction was Ian Paisley’s reply to a question in the Assembly, which basically read as ‘nothing to do with me or mine mate’.
But seriously: why should unionists worry about how Irish nationalism cuts its cake?
Dewi,
The point was wider than SF. Even if the guy was only a junior member, his actions are approved of in significant quarters of northern Irish Republicanism (try this search on Google: http://tinyurl.com/ysmmot), if these actions are disowned by the mainstream party itself.
Posted by on Sep 18, 2007 @ 06:55 PM“(the biggest hole in the demographic theory is growing middle class nationalist apathy)”
It’s not apathy it’s called being financially prudent mixed up with a good lifestyle balance.
Those such nationalists are likely consumed running N.Ireland PLC in well-paid Staff Officer/DP positions and above in the public sector. They can probably see the value of true socialism in terms of having and running public services duly matched with flexible working arrangements and long annual leave periods.
It would in all honesty probably take such socio-econimic castes to be held at gun point before surrendering a sublime lifestyle like that.
Posted by on Sep 18, 2007 @ 07:03 PMBertie could end up being a sangwich short of a picnic if he has to accede to SF’s desire for 6-county MLA’s ordering sarni’s at the Oireachtas.
Posted by on Sep 18, 2007 @ 07:21 PMOireachtas representation is SDLP policy as well, although they keep very quiet about it.
Posted by on Sep 18, 2007 @ 07:58 PMWhy vote for wannabees when you can vote for a real party of the nation.
Serves the stoops right for reprieving Gerry and for sidelining their socialism.
Very stressful for Shinners. How much can you resent southerners while professing to want to join up with them?
Posted by on Sep 18, 2007 @ 08:01 PMAquifer
“Serves the stoops right...”
Methinks they have been asking for it for some time. They just needed to bide their time. However, Bertie probably thinks that he is building on the kicking he gave the shinners in the south and wants to keep kicking them up here until he destroys them. That’s why the shinners are really on the run. Even if FF don’t contest the Westminster elections, it leaves the way open for a Labour candidate. The shinners would have a hard job explaining why they would contest them considering a true Republican party like FF aren’t being the hypocrites who run and then refuse to represent.RIP the Shinners
Posted by on Sep 18, 2007 @ 08:36 PMI think this, and the decision by Aer Lingus to move from the Shannon to Belfast, are both good things.
What I want is a United Ireland and these are instances of all-Ireland thinking. I hope there will be a few other similar announcements in the next few years - and the sooner the better.
I do not like the SDLP much, but there are a lot of the nationalist electorate who did not vote in the last couple of elections but who may do so if FF were running.
Having FF as a political opponent will be an opportunity for SF to develop its all-Ireland strategies on its home turf, and especially rethink its economic policies. Marxism-Leninism is so passé.
SF has done much to aid nationalists in NI as its electoral success in NI has shown. SF’s aim is to have a united Ireland too - but it may not be SF who brings it about. And once a united Ireland is achieved, SF may decide its work is done and fade away.
The possibilities of having FF in the north are rather wonderful. A FF party in government in NI with the DUP while the FF also rules from Dublin. How will the Dodds, the Allisters, the Vances, Baby Doc et al be able to cope with this??!!
And maybe other Irish parties may decide to expand to NI. Hmmm, split nationalist vote may happen then.
Posted by on Sep 18, 2007 @ 08:40 PMOoops, this should have read:
“How will the Dodds, the Allisters, the Vances, Baby Doc, Pete Baker et al be able to cope with this??!!Posted by on Sep 18, 2007 @ 08:42 PM“A FF party in government in NI with the DUP while the FF also rules from Dublin. How will the Dodds, the Allisters, the Vances, Baby Doc et al be able to cope with this??!!”
What is the great difficulty though? FF already rules from Dublin so the effect is that the DUP would no longer have to deal with SF and only have to deal with one nationalist entity HQ’d by southerners in Dublin.
Posted by on Sep 18, 2007 @ 08:48 PMI am not a Sinn Fein fan but a lot of the comments “RIP the Sinners” etc is just amazingly naive.
Posted by on Sep 18, 2007 @ 08:49 PMSlug: >>I am not a Sinn Fein fan but a lot of the comments “RIP the Sinners” etc is just amazingly naive.<<
I agree, Slug. FF is not known yet by the NI nationalist electorate while SF is. FF may well be treated with suspicions as SF did in the Irish elections.
However, if FF has a good platform of policies at the next Assembly election it may attract voters (even possibly from non-nationalists) who are not hardcore supporters of other parties, including SF.
I wonder if FF plans to stand for Westminster as well as for the Assembly and also, I assume, for the Councils??
Posted by on Sep 18, 2007 @ 09:03 PMThis could split the unionist vote. On the other side, no self respecting republican/nationalist would dream of voting for free staters/foreigners.
Posted by on Sep 18, 2007 @ 09:04 PMSlug
“RIP the Shinners”
Of course it is naive, but a nice thought. At best premature, but the patient does need to be carefully monitored. Too long copying the stoops and trying to be them may just have contaminated their thought processes (or is that a bit of an oxymoron?).
Posted by on Sep 18, 2007 @ 09:06 PMA FF minister in Dublin and one in Stormont does not cause me any concern.
The authority of the Dublin politician will stop a few miles south of Newry and The Queens Writ will run throughout NI.
Unionists will make sure each jurisdiction is treated with respect.
The Border stays and can not be wished away. It is a reality.Posted by on Sep 18, 2007 @ 09:32 PMMick
I’d say it’s still very early days for Fianna Fail on this one.
From a republican perspective, this is a very positive development, and Sinn Fein would be obviously delighted to see the largest party in the country finally taking the step to organising and devising policies on an all-island basis.
Sure, that will bring with it electoral challenges and- no doubt- some electoral setbacks for Sinn Fein, but that’s a small price to pay for winning the argument, isn’t it?
On the remark about members of the northern Irish republican family, it’s a bit fo a stretch to tar all with the accusation of being engaged in a campaign against Orange halls. A bit like tarring the northern unionist community with attacks on catholic churches, GAA clubs and Sinn Fein offices.
The day that an Irish National flag is flown undisturbed from a building in a majority unionist area will certainly be the day I know we’ve made considerable progress towards respecting the equal legitimacy of conflicting national identities here.
Posted by on Sep 18, 2007 @ 09:41 PMGrouch -
“Of course it is naive, but a nice thought. At best premature, but the patient does need to be carefully monitored. “Well lets start…
Fair play to El Presidente - looking a little more aged ,tonight on UTV I think, he said that we welcomed FF move - even thought it probably meant the end of the SDLP...:)
Off the hoof that would have been a pretty impressive riposte (made a bit easier with Durkan’s ability to reload quickly) (after shooting himself in the foot) but it suggests SF worked out in advance that this scenario was at least possible.
I am trying to view this from SF’s perspective.
There is no immediate panic - Gordon is going to wait til May by the looks of things - but the dynamic is changed dramatically…(Again if Gordon gets rid of FMD, and looks decisive on Northern Roack, and the tories are in a mess - I suppose a sanp election in October is possibe?)
How do you attack in the North the party of success in the south?, where the voters have just not taken your message. If you do attack
FF, FF just say that your policy won’t work in an all-ireland capacity.
No access to Number 10 hardly now the show has moved on…
FF hold the purse strings for all the fundingThe SF strategy bit now is going to be fascinating...peobably worth a thread on its own.
I bet Gerry wont be the man in the televised debate for Wesminster 2008, but I don’t suppose rthat what you meant by “carefully monitored”
Posted by on Sep 18, 2007 @ 09:43 PM“I think this, and the decision by Aer Lingus to move from the Shannon to Belfast, are both good things. What I want is a United Ireland and these are instances of all-Ireland thinking. I hope there will be a few other similar announcements in the next few years - and the sooner the better.”
Eircom continuing its growth
http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_1011196.shtml
Posted by on Sep 18, 2007 @ 09:45 PM“Paul thinks that cross border developments of all kinds on and between these islands are good (and inevitably limited) and that Sir Reg should probably ‘chill’”. Absolutley, and as time goes on and further prosperity comes to Northern Ireland, I think most people in NI will settle down into and accept a state of constitutional limbo with strong connections to the Republic.
Posted by on Sep 18, 2007 @ 09:52 PMBretagne
This move could put the whole SF Westminster debacle into a bit of a tailspin.
Panic, of course SF won’t admit it, but if that’s the best the bearded one can do - stating the obvious. Does he not realise that with SDLP and FF merging, his party will have a real challenge. Are they up to it? Now, that’s an interesting topic for a new thread.
Posted by on Sep 18, 2007 @ 10:02 PM
