Tuesday, October 02, 2007
Is Northern Ireland ready for another election?
I thought that perhaps we had seen the end all our elections in 2007. But that may not be. Rumour is rife (Doughty Street)of Gordon Brown’s plans to cut and run (and some warnings to the contrary) for an early test at the polls: not least to try to finish off David Cameron before he has a chance to marshal his policy commissions into a coherent offering to the UK public. But is the shortened time quickening plans on the Unionist side for rapid moves (not to mention Senator Harris’s recent intervention) towards to co-operation? Single candidates in South Belfast and Fermanagh South Tyrone, could yield a couple of profitable results!
Mick Fealty @ 01:30 PM
The quick answer is no, confrontation between the DUP and SF after their little love in could produce bad results. The people on the ground aren’t ready for it.
Posted by on Oct 02, 2007 @ 01:34 PMI’ll only vote if all the people standing give up their “other” jobs. Sick of having the same people trying to do everything - conflict of interest and all that.
Posted by on Oct 02, 2007 @ 01:37 PMAnother wee factor for Gordon to consider is the impact of the dark nights, as he has now missed any chance to go to the polls before the clocks go back. It seems he’s willing to take that risk, but I’m not sure that he’s right to take that risk.
Posted by on Oct 02, 2007 @ 01:56 PMI think he’s created 2 much momentum not to go. He’d look foolish or scared and I’m sure he doesn’t want that. Bad news for Plaid - skint....
Posted by on Oct 02, 2007 @ 02:07 PMAha, now this is genuinely interesting:
“Bad news for Plaid - skint....”
I suggested the same about here on Doughty Street last night…
Part of Gordo’s master plan? Could it be the best time to run against the SNP, before hegemony sets in, and they’ve less cash to hand?
Posted by on Oct 02, 2007 @ 02:22 PMI blogged at the start of last week suggesting that any snap election’s timing would be least propitious for Northern Ireland. :-/
Posted by on Oct 02, 2007 @ 02:42 PMThis is my first blog on here although I have been a keen observer for some time.
I’m not so sure the Prime Minister will go for a snap election. The announcement of 1000 troops returning home does not mean much till people see it happen. Possibly he could wait till that happens, and use the headlines to launch himself further ahead of the Tories. Notably, I think that following this Tory conference the ‘points’ difference between Labour and the Conservatives will be much smaller than at the moment.Posted by on Oct 02, 2007 @ 02:59 PMMick - did u mean Hogmany not hegemony ? Actually SNP got a pretty sophisticated money raising operation and being party of Government will naturally lead to increased donations.
Tangentially it’s quite an interesting subject that Labour, for instance, can subsidise Devolved campaigns with central funds....Welsh cash for Welsh elections I say.
Posted by on Oct 02, 2007 @ 03:25 PMI think Gordy will go for it (not to would look quite foolish) and well before the festive season sets in. So after the clocks go back and before the last week of november probably - with a tendency to as early as possible. Anybody up for the first week in November? How about Guy Fawkes day - always seemd like a good day for radical change in parliament?
This is of course bad news for the north. I can see the prescriptions for election fatigue already being written - election fever it certainly won’t be.
Posted by on Oct 02, 2007 @ 03:34 PMGordon Brown has a pratically impossible decision. There are a vast number of variables even before any campaign gets underway let alone the potential problems in a campaign.
Against going are a number of factores, not exclusively but including
Dark nights may reduce turn out disproportionately amongst people happy enough with the current government but not that motivated.Then there is the lack of need to go now and so it could annoy people. I suspect, however, that would be quickly forgotten in a campaign.
The Tory conference seems to be going better than expected (though expectations were low) and as border unionist correctly observes the polls will probably look less bad for the Tories in a couple of days.
Unless Brown gets a decent majority I suspect he has a big problem. A reduced majority will make him look severely damaged, to loose an overall majority would be fairly disasterous. All those comments about being the shortest serving PM since Canning especially after waiting for so long for the job.
In favour of going he has had a bounce in the polls and if he does not go and looses later he will make the mistake Jim Callaghan did. If he goes and wins he can destroy Cameron yet with no obvious Tory heir aparent (Hague?) to step into place a very wounded Cameron might have to soldier on.
The momentum is such that not to go would at least temporarily make it look as if he did not go because Cameron did so well at the conference; helping Cameron and hurting Brown.
On balance I tink he will wait until a couple of days after Cameron’s speech and decide then. If Cameron’s speech is poor or the polls show no bounce for the Conersatives he will go. What to I know though I am a prodiban who believes in creationism?
In terms of Northern Ireland I would have thought the winners from an electionh would probably be the DUP. We have discussed at great length the Fermanagh/South Tyrone and South Belfast seats but whilst I entirely respect the counter ideas I think both will go unionist (FST temporarily). If the DUP win both they will gain and even if they let the UUP go for one it will be seen that the seat is UUP only by the grace and favour of the main unionist party, hence underlining the subservient nature of the UUP. If they could get North Down (unlikely but possible) then that would really hurt the UUP despite Hermon’s semi detached position. Ironically of course Empey could be helped by an election as I would suggest that the UUP would be unlikely to dump him at the start of an election campaign and if the UUP end up with two seats they can claim to be on the way back.
I also suspect that an early election would be bad for the prodiban with no organisation ready and no candidates prepared for the fight. A bad showing (or even a no show) by prodiban candidates would allow the DUP to claim that there was very little real opposition to their recent change in policy.
I am of course in no position to pontificate on nationalist politics but would a fair reading be that no or little change would be the likely outcome? I suspect Durkin is safe, McDonnell loosing would be considered not a big defeat and McGrady could probably hold South Down. Would Ritchie run instead?
Posted by on Oct 02, 2007 @ 04:02 PMWhat’s the minimum duration of an eletion campaign - is it definitely too late to call a poll on the 25th of October?
Posted by on Oct 02, 2007 @ 04:03 PMI think that an election in November would be fantastic - get the kid gloves off.
I also suspect that the interest will only be in constituencies that have the name south in the title -
South Down
South Belfast
Fermanagh South Tyrone
South Antrimalthough also possibly North Down.
BUT
Is it too early for Allister and his crowd to make an impact in South Antrim; Eddie McGrady has already indicated he is running again in South Down; Planning (& Giants Causeway) will undermine Foster in Fermanagh South Tyrone; There will be no election pact between the UUP and DUP (South Belfast/FST).
Posted by on Oct 02, 2007 @ 04:30 PMIn favour of going now: Brown is the architect of the modern British housing boom. If that boom turns to bust, Brown’s political career goes with it. If he gets a renewed mandate now, he at least gets a five year stint (and has four years to get out of any 2008 slump instead of two).
Against going now: Labour’s finances are apalling; the SNP are riding high in Scotland; the polls almost certainly overstate Labour support as they have done for 15 years; November is not a good time to get Labour voters to the polls.
In parochial terms; the SF-DUP relationship has more than enough coherence to survive what will be a low-key campaign where all parties have limited budgets and tired workers; the Unionists should win both FST and South Belfast with joint candidates and the SDLP should be able to squeeze enough tactical votes to win South Down and SF could see their percentage share increase significantly and still end up a seat down. That’s first past the post for you.
Posted by on Oct 02, 2007 @ 04:39 PMDisagree with No Irish Here on his point that there will be no deal in South Belfast, but agree about the damage to Arlene Foster. Hence, I predict Jimmy Spratt as combined U candidate in South Belfast and Tom Elliot in FST. Spratt will win, Elliot will not.
Posted by on Oct 02, 2007 @ 04:47 PMno irish here,
I agree entirely about the prodiban. Do you think they would do any better if the election was called later? Although they would become more organised; memories of the DUP sell out would be fadig a bit and if the show remains on track people might not want to rock the boat. You suggest South Antrim as a possible good place for Allister and co and I would agree; what about East and North Antrim, Strangford and East Belfast?Posted by on Oct 02, 2007 @ 04:49 PMURQUHART,
Interesting view re FST. Do you think Foster is so badly damaged that a decision would be made to run Tom Elliot? I am inclined to think he is pretty damaged goods after the last Westminister election. I doubt that the damage to Foster has made her a less attractive candidate than Elliot. I agree with the implication in your post that Elliot would have great difficulty taking FST.Posted by on Oct 02, 2007 @ 04:55 PM“the Unionists should win both FST and South Belfast with joint candidates and the SDLP should be able to squeeze enough tactical votes to win South Down and SF could see their percentage share increase significantly and still end up a seat down”
Impossible for SDLP to win - and given a single Unionist candidate won’t their 7000 odd vote disappear in FST ?
Posted by on Oct 02, 2007 @ 05:25 PM“What’s the minimum duration of an eletion campaign - is it definitely too late to call a poll on the 25th of October?”
Election held 17 working days after Gordon sees the Queen so 25th out.
Posted by on Oct 02, 2007 @ 05:32 PMIt is difficult to think what the impact if the election (although I think it will be in Nov) was later.
Also the Boundary Commission has just released its recomendations (embargoed until midnight)
Some big changes - East Belfast, North Belfast, west Belfast, South Belfast, Lagan valley, East Antrim, east derry, South Down, Strangford, South Antrim + some others.
Posted by on Oct 02, 2007 @ 05:40 PMHow on earth did u get hold of that NIH ? And these can’t apply to these elections can they ?
Posted by on Oct 02, 2007 @ 05:43 PMI think there is an outside possibility of an SF/SDLP counter pact to any unionist deal on FST/SB. After all Labour, the SDLP’s sister party, already broke the mold on SF election pacts with their Seanad deal. There is the troubling SF abstentionist policy for the SDLP to deal with but given that their potential suitors in FF said they would not be interested in Westminster maybe that’s no longer beyond the pale either.
Perhaps SF would be willing to take their chances in FST and instead opt for a Belfast only pact, SF in the North and SDLP in the South.
Posted by on Oct 02, 2007 @ 05:49 PMImpossible for SDLP to win - and given a single Unionist candidate won’t their 7000 odd vote disappear in FST ?
Although there is arguably less reason for SDLP voters not to vote tactically that at any point in recent times, the Shinners will have to carry off the mother of all squeezes to win against a single Unionist candidate.
SF have been the largest nationalist party in every fought on the current boundaries. Despite that, the SDLP vote was essentially unsqueezed in 2001 and by only 1,100 votes in 2005 in Westminster as opposed to the local government elections on the same day. The Assembly election saw a combined Unionist vote of 21,360, an SF plus dissident vote of 18,078 and an SDLP vote of 6,483. SF would have to pull more than half of the SDLP’s Assembly vote which would require a collapse of bilbical proportions on the SDLP’s part. And Arlene might be DUP but she isn’t a bogey-person of Willie McCrea proportions.
It’s possible SF can pull this off but the odds are against them.
Perhaps SF would be willing to take their chances in FST and instead opt for a Belfast only pact, SF in the North and SDLP in the South.
First I have heard of this, are you sure you aren’t kite flying?
In a straight fight between Kelly and Dodds, Dodds still wins by about 5% points (Assembly 2007 is blurred by the McCord vote but a small but significant majority of those would probably otherwise have gone Unionist). Kelly misses the chance to crush Maginness in a fair dig and set the Shinners up for three Assembly seats next time. Maskey gets the shaft in South Belfast. Maginness probably says “over my dead body”. Relations between the Shinners and Stoops are apalling in Belfast anyway ever since Maginness did the dirty on the Shinners over the Mayoralty in June.
The only person who really benefits from this proposal is Alasdair… you are Alisdair McDonnell, and I claim my ten pounds.
Posted by on Oct 02, 2007 @ 07:04 PMPersonal view is that a single Unionist candidate in FST might trigger an SDLP collapse - but we’’ll see. Fascinating in Belfast Noth Mccord’s transfers went in a ratio of 7:5 Unionist to Nationalist.......don’t quite understand system to work out what his 500 non-transerable would have done to this ratio.
I can’t see SF and ADLP forming pact of anysort anywhere so Belfast South looks doomed.....best chance of nationalist gain ? .......Ceredigion !!!Posted by on Oct 02, 2007 @ 07:18 PMDewi,
You are much more expert with the numbers than me and I always respect your suggestions. I think an SDLP collapse in FST of the type you propose is relatively unlikely, but possible (he says covering himself).Running Elliot is something I have not heard before URQUHART’s suggestion. I think he would have more difficulty getting the vote out in an election after his failure last time.
At a guess I would suggest if Foster runs she will win against Gildernew, Elliot would loose.
If I am wrong I will of course be open to riducle but as a fundamentalist prodiban who believes in creationism that will be nothing new for me.
Posted by on Oct 02, 2007 @ 07:46 PM“....fundamentalist prodiban who believes in creationism that will be nothing new for me.”
Keep on evangelicing - u might be right never know !!
One thing I’ve asked before - do students vote at home or at college usually - do they get the choice these days ? relevant both to FST and Belfast South.
Posted by on Oct 02, 2007 @ 08:03 PM
