Saturday, December 29, 2007
“In the unlikely event of an impact..”
When I noted the asteroid 2007 WD5 previously the impact probability with Mars was a 1 in 75 chance, described by NASA astronomer Steve Chesley as “a very high impact probability for what we’re used to dealing with”. Yesterday NASA reported that the discovery of more data on the asteroid’s orbit has allowed them to refine the orbit and the uncertainties. It’s still more likely to miss than to hit, but the chances have gone up to 1 in 25 (an increase from a 1.3% to a 3.9% chance of impact). From the NASA press release
“Pre-discovery observations of asteroid 2007 WD5, taken on November 8, 2007 have allowed its orbit to be refined and the uncertainties for the late January Mars encounter have been improved. The impact probability resulting from the recent orbit refinement has increased to a surprising 3.9% (about 1 in 25 odds). The uncertainty region during the Mars encounter now extends over 400,000 km along a very narrow ellipsoid that is only 600 km wide. Since the uncertainty region intersects Mars itself, a Mars impact is still possible. However, the most likely scenario is that additional observations of the asteroid will allow the uncertainty region to shrink so that a Mars impact is ruled out. In the unlikely event of an impact, the time would be 2008 January 30 at 10:56 UT (2:56 a.m. PST) with an uncertainty of a few minutes.”
Current position of 2007 WD5
Pete Baker @ 01:02 PM
Would a massive Martian impact have climatic effects on us Pete? Like astral waves of debris or such like?
Posted by on Dec 29, 2007 @ 02:28 PM“Would a massive Martian impact have climatic effects on us Pete?”
Very very unlikely Dewi - even with a massive impact.
The most you could expect, should there be an impact, is something that we know has happened in the past.
Namely that chunks of Martian rock from the impact could make their way into the Earth’s orbit and fall through the atmosphere as meteorites.
Posted by on Dec 29, 2007 @ 02:40 PMGee Pete, you’re so fast. I was about to send you a link on this.
Well done for keeping us up to “speed”.Posted by on Dec 29, 2007 @ 03:59 PMOn a related topic, Pete, you no doubt remember the great excitement a few years back when a team claimed that they had found tracks in one of those Mars meteorites which could (only?) have been made by bacteria. That caused controversy which swirled for quite a while.
I read a report about a month ago (in Science?) which detailed similar, almost identical tracks, in terrestrial rocks, which have been shown to have been created by natural, non-biological, processes.Posted by on Dec 29, 2007 @ 04:09 PMAny chance you can remove that annoying cold house video, Pete?
Once was interesting but it gets wearying after a while.Posted by on Dec 29, 2007 @ 04:16 PMPete,
What effect would the asteroid have on Mars? Would it have more effect than a similar impact here because of the less dense Martian atmosphere and as such it would be less burned up?Posted by on Dec 30, 2007 @ 05:24 PMI reckon the Martians can look after their own Turgon !
Posted by on Dec 30, 2007 @ 05:43 PMSewi,
Firstly happy Christmas and New Year.Secondly: I am worried. I have previously stated my belief in a flat dish shaped earth. In which case an impact could be particularly destabilising.
Posted by on Dec 30, 2007 @ 05:48 PMNadolig Hapus a blwyddyn newydd dda i Turgon a phawb. Don’t know about you Turgon but I’m beginning to enjoy the space stuff!
Posted by on Dec 30, 2007 @ 06:08 PMThis asteroid is said to be about 50Mls wide, so do we really know what the impact will do? Change the course of Mars’s orbit for example?
If it misses by such a small distance will Mars’s gravity not have an affect on the direction the asteriod will be travelling and if the orbit path of the asteroid changes could we not then find ourselves in it’s road?
Posted by on Dec 30, 2007 @ 10:21 PM50m, realist. It will make as much difference as a gnat hitting an express train (probably even much less).
Yes, its orbit could be affected but nobody at NASA has suggested that it could put it on a future collision course with Earth. But these things are not easy to calculate; for example, nobody has yet been able to solve the dynamics of a 3 body group.
Nothing will happen soon. Celebrate life.Posted by on Dec 30, 2007 @ 11:29 PMIt’s a little suspicious that so far none of the posters has speculated how this will affect the DUP-Sinn Fein coalition. Who’s the minister in charge of extra-terrestrial disasters in Northern Ireland? Should he or she show some sense of responsibility and resign?
Posted by on Jan 02, 2008 @ 07:39 PMWell, Glyn, most of them seem to find that burying their heads in the sand avoids having to look up and is sort of like resigning.
Posted by on Jan 02, 2008 @ 10:56 PMIt’s heavenly collusion Glyn:
Collision or Collusion - dunno
But surely an illusion
From Hollywood - 42 inch wide
It’s made for televisionI’ve writ an englyn!
Seriously Joe if it’s only 50m wide that’s less impact than a plane crash ?
Posted by on Jan 02, 2008 @ 11:04 PMWell it’s solid, Dewi, compared to a mainly hollow plane. But yes, pretty small crater. It’ll be interesting to see if the Hubble can spot it. Don’t know if the alignment works out.
Posted by on Jan 02, 2008 @ 11:48 PMBack of the envelope calculation:
The asteroid weights about 40,000 tons. Fully laden 747 a bit less than 500 tons if memory serves me.Posted by on Jan 02, 2008 @ 11:54 PMAnd although I’ve travelled on quite a few, I still can’t understand or believe that we can throw such a thing into the air and keep it up there for half a day.
Posted by on Jan 02, 2008 @ 11:56 PMSo impact energy = .5*mv squared. Probably going pretty fast as well. I still reckon the Martian Defence Force could take it out with a well aimed RPG ?
Posted by on Jan 02, 2008 @ 11:58 PMDo you mean Martin or Martian? :-)
Posted by on Jan 03, 2008 @ 12:07 AMI often wondered where those arm dumps were....
Posted by on Jan 03, 2008 @ 12:10 AMGlyn has been worried about which minister has been tasked with saving the planet and most importantly Northern Ireland from these problems. I would have thought the best thing we could do is ask that great Northern Irish political export Lempit Opik to come to our rescue. I hope his interest in Cheeky Girls has not stopped him taking these matters seriously.
Posted by on Jan 03, 2008 @ 12:12 AMI’m sure you are monitoring the situation carefully from the Devenish tower Turgon. Is it true that that is where Da Vinci conducted his gravity experiments ? (Or was that Newton...)
Posted by on Jan 03, 2008 @ 12:20 AMCheeky girls? Would they be Phobus and Deimos?
Posted by on Jan 03, 2008 @ 12:21 AMCheeky girls? Would they be Phobus and Deimos?
LOL LOL LOL Joe - v. good !
Posted by on Jan 03, 2008 @ 12:22 AMNo, that was Scrabo Tower, Dewi. The balls ran away, of course, which is why they got the idea for the golf course there.
Great course too; I was a member for a few years.Posted by on Jan 03, 2008 @ 12:38 AM
