Thursday, October 04, 2007
In strategy it is important…
Miyamoto Musashi said, “In strategy it is important to see distant things as if they were close and to take a distanced view of close things.” in this regard. David Maxwell a journalist with City Beat radio has some interesting Stormont gossip . He’s heard (as have we) that Eddie McGrady is going to stand in South Down, instead of Margaret Ritchie. But it’s hard to argue with David’s view that whilst it makes the short term a certainty against Catriona Ruane (keep an eye out for a last minute candidate switcheroo), who is clearly struggling with the weight and detail of her Education brief. In the longer term, Ritchie may just be kissing the boat goodbye (not least if this election is delayed a further two years. He also hears that the DUP have offered the UUP a deal that doesn’t look great on the surface either: Tom Elliot for FST and Jimmy Spratt for South Belfast (which would almost certainly go UU, if given a chance). It’s doubted by some that Elliot has sufficient ‘convening power’ to get the fragmented Unionist vote out, whilst a clear run for Spratt should unseat the SDLP incumbent. The question is: why would Arlene Foster not run? The answer might lie in her own difficulties with her Agricultural Environment (eek, blogging under pressure) brief. It’s a two edged sword this devolution lark.
Mick Fealty @ 12:47 PM
The EP has admirable rules about dual mandates- it doesn’t allow them.
Erm, 2003; The Rt. Hon Dr Rev Ian Paisley MLA, MP, MEP
Posted by on Oct 04, 2007 @ 09:59 PMI have said before and I will say it again, even if you have already heard it. The union is not at risk, a deal by the DUP and UU is surely only necessary if there was this great need to make the union safe. A pact like this amongst the Unionists is just a pure sectarian tactic. Surely we are moving to new political dispensations?
I am seriously disgusted at any suggestion of a pact. Let’s look at the hypocracy of the situation. A large number of Empey’s party actually wanted to be a party in opposition. How can they then go into an electoral pact to win a seat. They can’t say it is because they don’t want the shinners to get a seat, as they would be preventing one of our best all-round MPs from retaining a seat in South Belfast.
So, back to the sad old dark politics of the past for the DUP. Ye olde sectarian sleazebags and cronyists
Posted by on Oct 04, 2007 @ 10:48 PM“They can’t say it is because they don’t want the shinners to get a seat, as they would be preventing one of our best all-round MPs from retaining a seat in South Belfast.”
Pardon? Are you Alistair in disguise?
Turgon,
I can see what you’re saying, but wouldn’t it be in the best interests of the DUP and SF to avoid - whenever possible - Ministers holding dual mandates. I reckon that’s just asking for bother down the line when someone needs to be deselected.
Plus it seems that, possibly moreso in the DUP rather than SF, there are plenty of career politicians who aren’t too happy at getting a bit part role in Stormont and may need to be placated a bit.
Posted by on Oct 04, 2007 @ 11:09 PMGrouch:
“I have said before and I will say it again, even if you have already heard it. The union is not at risk, a deal by the DUP and UU is surely only necessary if there was this great need to make the union safe. A pact like this amongst the Unionists is just a pure sectarian tactic. Surely we are moving to new political dispensations?
I am seriously disgusted at any suggestion of a pact. Let’s look at the hypocracy of the situation. A large number of Empey’s party actually wanted to be a party in opposition. How can they then go into an electoral pact to win a seat. They can’t say it is because they don’t want the shinners to get a seat, as they would be preventing one of our best all-round MPs from retaining a seat in South Belfast.”
Actually, if you read Reg Empey’s comments in the Newsletter, he seems to be trying to avoid the sectarian allegation:
http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/Merger-is-hard-to-imagine.3257655.jp
“We will approach discussions with the DUP in good faith to see if we can end the lack of representation in Parliament that so many people in Northern Ireland have to endure. How can it be of benefit to stay away from the Parliament that votes vast sums of money for us to spend in Northern Ireland. Yet this is what Sinn Fein and shortly to arrive Fianna Fail intend for the people.
If there is a realistic possibility of helping any electors in Northern Ireland achieve representation, then Ulster Unionists will take seriously a proposal that could bring about change.”
If Empey is true to his words then he should only be contemplating an electoral pact in seats currently held by SF, i.e. bring WT, MU or N&A;into the mix along with FST, but there won’t be an agreed single Unionist candidate in South Belfast, where the electorate currently do have access to full Parliamentary representation via the SDLP’s MP McDonnell.
(Fianna Fail aren’t in the picture yet and indeed recent comments by McDonnell seem to suggest that an SDLP/FF merger would be conditional on continued attendance at Westminster for MPs of the combined party.)
Posted by on Oct 05, 2007 @ 12:24 AM‘’Catriona Ruane… who is clearly struggling with the weight and detail of her Education brief.’’
I don’t think she’s clearly struggling, or at least that anyone could have prevented this TA strike, so it’s a little unfair to blame her for that entirely. Same with the controversies over the 11 plus and selection and Irish schools and creationism etc. etc. I think she should be scrutinized closely in her actions, but the fact that she hasn’t really made any progress isn’t really her fault.
Posted by on Oct 05, 2007 @ 08:23 AMJeepers Abdul - it’s only when you list all of Catriona’s failures, as you have done, that you realise how truly useless she is.
Posted by on Oct 05, 2007 @ 09:49 AMMMMMMMM DK.....
As you have all been saying it is important that the Pan nationalist front is defeated and replaced with a pan unionist front.
Even if the Unionist front also turns out to be ‘useless’. Because as has been demonstrated the ‘majority’ prefer useless Unionists - it makes a lot of constitutional sense.
#Hey ho the merry oh!....
who wants to lock up the electorial swings
wins a place in Mr Brown’s election merry go round.
Hey ho they merry oh!....#
Posted by on Oct 05, 2007 @ 10:29 AMNorth Belfast Assembly Election Results 2007
DUP 11,108 (37.4%, +3.2%) 2 seats
SF 9,094 (30.6%, +3.6%) 2 seats
SDLP 4,080 (13.7%, -3.1%) 1 seat
UUP 2,498 (8.4%, -1.0%) 1 seat
Ind 1,320 (4.4%)
Green 590 (2.0%, +1.2%)
Alliance 486 (1.6%, +0.7%)
UKUP 360 (1.2%)
WP 139 (0.5%, +0.2%)
Rainbow George 0.1% (+0.1%)Combined Unionist Vote: 13,968 (47.0%)
Combined Nationalist Vote: 13,174 (44.3%)The seat is on!!
Posted by on Oct 05, 2007 @ 03:44 PMIt seems I can’t add properly!
Combined Unionist Vote: 13,966 (47.0%)
Combined Nationalist Vote: 13,174 (44.3%)The difference is just 792 votes
A Nationalist Unity / Get Dodds Out candidate could win it - a non-Shinner running on an abstentionist ticket. Turnout would be the key factor.
Posted by on Oct 05, 2007 @ 04:52 PMYes
He - sorry it swings both ways.
Posted by on Oct 05, 2007 @ 09:36 PM
