Tuesday, May 06, 2008
Gauin tae pick a fecht
Wendy Alexander, Labour Scottish leader, seems to have announced a significant policy shift. She now wants a referendum on independence and may introduce legislation for it. However, the formal position of Labour is unclear and the other parties are somewhat bemused about the potential shift. According to YouGov (buoyed from calling the London elections right) support for independence drops significantly if the option of changes to devolution is included. Also the underlying strength of Unionist support in Scotland means they begin in the stronger position. It allows the Unionist parties to take the initiative, pick the timing and leaves the SNP being the party that does not want to let the people speak.
Fair Deal @ 07:28 PM
The democratic deficit in the north is further emphasised through this, while the Scots devolved administration can legislate on having a vote on independence, the north is dependent on a decision from a British SoS and even then can’t define how the vote would be run - simple or weighted majority. They also wouldn’t be constrained by legislation on when a subsequent vote could be taken.
Posted by on May 06, 2008 @ 08:01 PMLabour is obviously rocked and are worried what’s happening in Scotland. No matter what spin is put on the issue, the SNP is still the party with the initiative on an independence referendum.
Posted by on May 06, 2008 @ 08:35 PMCan’t believe this FD, I have never ever e-mailed any of the bloggers on here but was just coming onto send your good self one regarding this Qmatter, as I know you have shown an interest in these matters previously.
Great minds think alike an aw that.
>>It allows the Unionist parties to take the initiative, pick the timing and leaves the SNP being the party that does not want to let the people speak.<<
This would be true if the other London based Unionist parties were not furious at mental Wendy for her rush of blood to the head. Remember the Tories and Fib-Dems ganged up with Alexander to set up a commission(downgraded by Brown to a review) to asses future further powers for the Scottish Parly. The one thing they agreed was the ‘review’ would not discuss independence. In fact I believe that Wendy Alexander is on record just three weeks ago arguing her case against an independence referendum.
Don’t believe for a minute that Brown has not had a hand in this sudden u-turn. A massive defeat in England and Wales, and Alexander getting a severe doing at the polls by unheard of margins. Incredibly there was even a poll amongst labour party members where Salmond beat her for popularity.
This is FD, as you call rightly, a cynical and last gasp pathetic attempt to set the agenda, could it be more desperately sad? A party that still hasn’t come to terms with the fact that they no longer call the shots in what truly was the safest part of their fiefdom. They hope to interrupt the SNP steamroller before they are out of sight, hopefully scare enough auld Grannies that really we will wither on the vine without the English tree. Why not, these tactics have always had some success, though on a diminishing scale as the recent Scottish Parly election showed.
The most recent poll on independence showed that more Scots favour this than the status quo. The choice of question is important also. The SNP favour something along the lines of;
Q. Should Scotland be a sovereign nation?
Wheras the Labour party and other London parties may just use their numbers to force through something like;
Q. Should Scotland separate from the UK?
The former always throws up a higher approval than the latter.
Posted by on May 06, 2008 @ 08:36 PMPE
“was just coming onto send your good self one regarding this Qmatter,”
Suggestions are welcome however just note i check that address every couple of days so a speedy response may not always be forthcoming (plus I may not be interested although in this case I would have been).
Thanks for the info on the different questions and its impact.
Posted by on May 06, 2008 @ 08:45 PM“The former always throws up a higher approval than the latter.”
...which would suggest that people are lacking something in their understanding of the terms in the question.
Posted by on May 06, 2008 @ 11:00 PMI’ve hesitated to comment cos the siblings are supposed to be so clever. Pause. But:
1) All Salmond has to do is say “thanks for your support we’ll have a referendum when we are ready thank you”
2) Goldie and Stephen must be seething - they surely can’t play on Labour’s Commission (don’t it sound like the Mafia?) thing. They must withdraw.
3) Oil price price up $10 a barrel this morning....Tony - might be tempted to go for it !!!4) Unless Wendy reckons that the Union is finished and wants a real job in an independent Scotland....
Posted by on May 06, 2008 @ 11:06 PM-
Posted by on May 06, 2008 @ 11:15 PM
The most recent poll on independence showed that more Scots favour this than the status quo.
On a point of pedantry, I think this is the most recent poll:
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Poll-says-support-for-Scots.4033511.jp
I’ve had a debate elsewhere re the wording of the question posed in such polls and also ultimately the referendum.
It’s the reason thrown up generally by nationalists as to why there is such a wide disparity in what such opinion polls are showing at the minute- my feeling is that there is simply a lot more volatility amongst the Scottish electorate at the present. I also think this volatility is not a result of daily changing attitudes on independence, but on attitudes towards Salmond’s and Scottish Labour’s current performances
But a referendum woulld prove me right or wrong on that:)Bring it on!!
Posted by on May 07, 2008 @ 05:01 AMI hadn’t heard of that poll O’neil. Note that the poll was done in the Torygraph and reported in the Scotsman, two papers known for their hostility to independence. Also note the wording of the question;
>>and 25 per cent would back “a completely separate state outside the UK”.<<
I reckoned this was the latest poll;
http://www.journal-online.co.uk/articles/show/3127
Note the wording;
“41% of Scots questioned favoured the Scottish Government negotiating an independence settlement with Westminster”
The one semi-constant in the variable results of the polls is the response to the wording.
FD
>>Thanks for the info on the different questions and its impact.<<
Nae bother! Given a chance to ponder, I have came up with a theory as to why Labour strategists may well be pursuing this line.
I pondered on another thread just what would be the effect in Scotland of a Tory government in London and an SNP government in auld reekie. I have came to the conclusion that these strategists have guessed that perhaps your more passive voter on independence, may well be persuaded to vote for Scottish independence rather than live under Tory rule again. Perhaps some outsiders may not realise the depths to which Tory rule is feared in Scotland. So much so that I believe Maggie T(spits) was the architect of the Scottish Parliament. Set up as a buffer against future possible Tory governments in Westminster. That was then, this is now, the Edinburgh Parly is not enough of a bulwark against Tory rule. I believe that many Scots, ambivalent towards independence, or indeed against it somewhat may have cause to vote for it.
So is it the plan to strike before Labour is ousted(as seems inevitable) at Westminster? Though labour would need the support of both the Tories and Fib-Dems to vote through a referendum, both of whom are genuinely raging at Labours opportunistic u-turn. Can it be any clearer that this party are far more concerned with party politics than for the nation? They believe that a losing independence vote would finish the SNP and make us return like sheep to vote for Labour against the Tories.
Posted by on May 07, 2008 @ 06:41 AMDewi
The incompetence of Labour of late, and the ham acting that passes for a leader(truly cringe worthy) allied with the various gaffe’s that have spelt out to us loud and clear that London calls the shots. The commission on Parly downgraded to a review, then Brown letting slip that review was not a one way street and some powers would be returning to Westminster.
I reckon that wee Wendy is being set to be portrayed as independent of London, telling Billy Britain Brown that she will decide what is best for Scotland, not him. The bullshit is reeking to high heaven. Even the Daily Record made heavy work of backing her yesterday, incredibly producing a document that proves that she has always been pro-referendum. This newspaper really has turned into the worst kind of party rag there is, embarrassingly so. No matter which way they try to spin this, no-one is that stupidly gullible to fall for it.
Upshot is, a referendum just now could only happen if the SNP and Labour agree on wording, not sure how they will do that. Of course with the support of other London based parties they could impose wording, would the SNP boycott? Unlikely. Labour’s massive unpopularity would be overwhelmed by the desperately negative campaign by the London parties. Every media outlet, perhaps the Herald apart,would happily join in with the doom and gloom, the end is nigh scenario. Why take the chance of interrupting the SNP steamroller at present. Go for a sure win in 2010, rather than a risky probable win now.
Posted by on May 07, 2008 @ 07:05 AMPE
I reckoned this was the latest poll;
No irrespective of the wording, the one I quoted was dated 30th April, the one you linked into was the 24th.
Posted by on May 07, 2008 @ 07:59 AMbeano
...which would suggest that people are lacking something in their understanding of the terms in the question.
I don’t know. I think there are subtle effects that go on with language; you’ll not overcome strong opinions, but you can affect people that are wavering. And Scotland does seem genuinely unsure at the moment.
I’m sure Alex Salmond would like to be able to hire an ad man to ask the question in as warm a fuzzy way as possible, though.
Posted by on May 07, 2008 @ 08:02 AMoneill
>>I reckoned this was the latest poll<<
What part of the past tense, “I reckoned” didn’t you understand? Or perhaps you believe that I am number dyslexic?
Anyhow this latest poll strangely enough corresponds with the editorial anti independence line. Seems to be at odds with all of the other polls. Either we blame the way the question was posed, or the sample.
Posted by on May 07, 2008 @ 08:20 AMBBC Scotland political editor on the Today programme said he suspected this was all about timing.
SNP want to wait while to demonstrate they are a party capable of sound government, and also if they are obstructed from they’re own plans by lack of an overall majority from bringing a central policy plank to the fore they can point at the other parties blocking the clear wishes of the party elected by the majority of the people in Scotland.
The outworking of that being SNP go to the electorate seeking a stronger mandate through an overall majority.
Sounds sensible enough analysis to me. Wendy Alexander plans are throwing a big spanner in the works.
Problem for her though is will the public see her pressing a huge red button in a panicky stunt fashion, has she over-egged her politcal pudding?
Posted by on May 07, 2008 @ 08:23 AMPE
What part of the past tense, “I reckoned” didn’t you understand? Or perhaps you believe that I am number dyslexic?
Or perhaps I simply read your comment too quickly?
Anyhow this latest poll strangely enough corresponds with the editorial anti independence line.
From what I’ve read over the last few months, The Scotsman has published all the polls connected with this issue, whatever the result. Also, it’s a You Gov poll, not a Scotsman or even Daily Tele one – they are an independent polling company, who were, incidently, pretty accurate at predicting the London Mayor Result.
Seems to be at odds with all of the other polls. Either we blame the way the question was posed, or the sample
You can do both, so you’ll be wanting a referendum asap I take it then?.
Posted by on May 07, 2008 @ 10:09 AMHogan
“elected by the majority of the people in Scotland”
Sorry to be picky but they weren’t elected by the majority, they are an minority administration.
Posted by on May 07, 2008 @ 10:23 AM“The democratic deficit in the north is further emphasised through this”
Mark
errrr.....presumably that is why NI politicans signed up to the arrangements here which are a compromise between the various traditions and have been endorsed by the electorate in a referrendum and several elections.
If we follow your logic, and the residents of say Cullybackey (or even Ms Miggins at 42 Acacia Avenue) want to declare UDI, then it would be a democratic deficit if they didnt have the power to do so.
Posted by on May 07, 2008 @ 10:46 AMThe Scots will never vote for Independence.
They would be afraid that they might have to take Brown back.
Posted by on May 07, 2008 @ 10:48 AM-
Posted by on May 07, 2008 @ 10:53 AM
I wonder will any Northern Ireland unionists now take a leaf out of Alexander’s book and seek a UK-wide referundum to determine whether it is the wish of the UK electorate that Northern Ireland remain a part of the UK or be integrated within the island of Ireland.
I suppose not. It would prove to be so hurtful should they find out that they weren’t wanted.
Posted by on May 07, 2008 @ 11:15 AM@Rory
I wonder will any Northern Ireland unionists now take a leaf out of Alexander’s book and seek a UK-wide referundum to determine whether it is the wish of the UK electorate that Northern Ireland remain a part of the UK or be integrated within the island of Ireland.
I suppose not. It would prove to be so hurtful should they find out that they weren’t wanted.
I’m pretty damn sure that even if a majority in GB favour a united Ireland they would be opposed to a united Ireland without the consent of NI by a substantial margin.
As to being “hurtful” you misunderstand the unionist psyche if you think that. The concept of GB being traitorous and half hearted to uphold their side of the covenant of nationhood has actually been a fundamental streak within unionism for the past 90 years, indeed arguably for centuries. You could go back as far as Cromwell and find it.
Posted by on May 07, 2008 @ 11:58 AMI wonder will any Northern Ireland unionists now take a leaf out of Alexander’s book and seek a UK-wide referundum to determine whether it is the wish of the UK electorate that Northern Ireland remain a part of the UK or be integrated within the island of Ireland.
As far as I understand, Ms Alexander is proposing a referendum in Scotland, not Uk-wide.
Regarding the wishes of the rest of the UK electorate, a fair proportion of them would also deny the right of those who may be a different colour or religion to themselves to regard themselves as British. Fortunately, although this attitude may be hurtful to those individuals in question, no one has the right to deny them their British citizenship or nationality.
Fortunately, also, it’s up to the people of Northern Ireland to decide their constitutional future- and I’d welcome a referendum on that question, tomorrow if you like.
Posted by on May 07, 2008 @ 12:04 PMFD
Consider Introduction to Politics Lesson 1 learned!
Voted for by more people than any other single party in Scotland.
I thought the guy was on the money in his analysis though.
Posted by on May 07, 2008 @ 12:46 PM“would be opposed to a united Ireland without the consent of NI by a substantial margin”
Why “substantial” ?
Posted by on May 07, 2008 @ 12:57 PMAs much as find Unionists insistence that they are staying in the Union regardless of whether England, Scotland and Wales want it or not, actually on topic, Gordon Brown has just dumped Alexander from a great height:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7387669.stm
Jesus H Christ. When I think Labour can’t fuck up more, they do so spectacularly.
Posted by on May 07, 2008 @ 01:05 PM
