Monday, August 04, 2008
First steps towards devolution of policing and justice?
Something of a breakthrough on Policing and Justice, or a crisis with no apparent end? BBC Radio Five Live was first to report at 12.30 today. In effect they have agreed that it would consist of a single ministry chosen under cross community vote in the Assembly (which would thereby exclude DUP and SF) but, as yet, there is nothing further on timetable! The Irish Times speculates that this system is most likely to devolve powers to the Alliance party. But yesterday it was the SDLP who were making a pitch for the job. The UUP is thought to be cool on the matter.
Now before, as one excited commenter who emailed me has suggested, people leap to the assumption that this is now all over, the detail, as one DUP insider told Slugger, is going to take a long time to work out. This ‘deal’ , they claim, is the outworking on a speech made by Robinson to the World Bar Conference at the end of June this year.
But the ‘deal’ is neither a deal, nor even an understanding. None of the other parties had been told about it before this morning’s press conference. David Ford when asked about it today, suggested that they would not break with the their position as the putative Opposition. Instead he told Slugger that they would get on with providing a coherent opposition to an incoherent government. In truth it has no appetite for fixing a problem it believes resides solely with the First and Deputy First Minister.
In which case, Alban Maginness pre-emptive strike looks a little, em, pre-emptive:
The DUP have held up devolution of justice long enough. They should not now be allowed to exclude a nationalist party from taking any new ministerial portfolio which may arise and they definitely should not dictate that a future Justice Ministry should be gifted to the Alliance Party. If that is the outcome it will be proof positive about who is running the country and whose party interests are being advantaged.
The Ulster Unionists are thought to be cool on the idea too, and for similar reasons to those laid out by David Ford. In the end the capacity to solve this deal and approve it’s final outline lies with the DUP and Sinn Fein and one willing other. It looks like they may have found that willing victim volunteer in the SDLP.
Although, having taken flak over almost every single micro move or decision on the part of their Social Development Minister Margaret Ritchie from the benches of Sinn Fein, the party must be doing so in the realisation that every slight mistake, misspoken word and every crisis in policing will be resolutely laid at their door. And if past experience is anything to go by the claims that they are simply doing the heavy lifting will not go down terribly well when they are getting the blame for every micro crime that happens on their watch.
At base this is a concern about several things. One, the party has been consistently in favour of the devolution Policing and Justice, so it might be viewed as a reversal of that strategy to refuse the opportunity of facilitating it now. Two the wily nilly abandonment of d’Hondt for cross community consent. Once that principle has been accepted it augments the already considerable powers of control invested in the joint office of OFMDFM since Sinn Fein and the DUP alone control that vote in the Assembly. And, three, it is extremely uncomfortable as the only party on the Executive with only one Minister.
Only time will tell whether or not the SDLP will either profit or suffer from it’s pitch for a possible new Minister. But given we know nothing at this stage of any time line, we could be on the edges of our seats waiting for the denouement of this little story for some time to come.
Mick Fealty @ 02:46 PM
One of the less appealing things about Slugger is the tendency for multiple posters to blog about the same topic - thereby fragmenting the discsussion.
Maybe a rule could be put in place to prevent this?
Posted by on Aug 04, 2008 @ 03:40 PMimpossible runciter, we have 3 posts today, a negative one, a neutral one and a positive one.
These reflect the mindsets of the bloggers here.Mick’s post unpicks the issue well, and it seems as if the ministry is a poisoned chalice; so who better than the SDLP to pick it up.
There’s a great chance, following Ritchie’s resolve on the loyalist funding, for the SDLP to get tough on dissident republicans and loyalist arms, which neither the main parties feel comfortable with doing, for historical reasons.
But we all want to see happens.Now, Dominic Bradley would make an excellent minister. I hope he gets it.
Posted by on Aug 04, 2008 @ 03:56 PMimpossible runciter, we have 3 posts today, a negative one, a neutral one and a positive one.
How is it impossible?
Is there some reason why these alternative opinions couldn’t have been submitted as comments rather than separate posts?
Posted by on Aug 04, 2008 @ 04:07 PM“Dominic Bradley would make an excellent minister. I hope he gets it.”
I concur.
Dominic is without a doubt the most militant and without doubt the most capable spokesperson for the Gaelic language community in the assembly.
It would be interesting to see if he would match his retoric with action, having long castigated others for failing to.
Feicimid.
Posted by on Aug 04, 2008 @ 04:10 PMIt is possible, but only if you think that only one definitive statement can be made on each topic or development. Sometimes, if there an exact clash, one of us will withdraw. But it seems to me that each of us have had different things to say.
In which case there is simply no need for withdrawal. [Gump voice]And that’s all I have to say about that.[/Gump voice]
Posted by on Aug 04, 2008 @ 04:27 PMill have more respect strangly for the Allience if they do not take the bate and join the new executive, and to be honest the SDLP are in the best position to carry out the role,
it will be a mixed bag, if they do it well(margaret richie good), then it could be a large step in the SDLP coming back from the brink, and i think SF will be very aware of it, so cue Alex Maskey making a lot of negative comments about who ever gets the role!
if they do it wrong then it could even damage all the good work that Richie has done over the past year and the good credit she has been getting the SDLP.
if it is the SDLP to get the position, then who would be selected to get it?? hopefully not Durkan or McDonnell, they do a better role outside of the executive, Attwood, well id hope they have more sense than that, just ant got it with the wide public, Bradley would be very good for it, got irish, got the rep from helping the Quinn Family, would help boost him int he next elections,
maybe someone new to help boost thier profile, O’loan or McGlone could do with a bit for more the public profile, or maybe Dallet will want to get back int he game,
could all be very interesting......provided the SDLP take the position
Posted by on Aug 04, 2008 @ 04:32 PMggn,
Action? With Alex Kane’s piece in mind (ie, pointing out that no action is possible without the say so of SF and the DUP), what actions do you think an SDLP Minister can actually take without the approval of SF? As things stand, after a year of the Chuckle Brothers’ routine, there is very little to show that could not have been achieved by Britain’s direct rulers.
This reality show is a highly reductive one. CTI was an exception to the rule, simply because OFMDFM could not bring themselves to touch it in advance, nor bring themselves to believe that Margaret Ritchie would take both them and the whole Civil Service on and call their bluff.
It’s unlikely they’ll be quite so careless in future.
Posted by on Aug 04, 2008 @ 04:48 PMMick,
My point was a side one, it is just something I would be looking out for.
Posted by on Aug 04, 2008 @ 04:59 PM.... but why would the DUP or UUP support an SDLP candidate?
Do you really think Robinson will want to face the allegation that he handed justice to a Nationalist?
Posted by on Aug 04, 2008 @ 05:02 PMIf its the SDLP it will be Maginness or Atwood- has to be someone with a legal background.
Posted by on Aug 04, 2008 @ 05:08 PMMick, as Sluggeronian repition appears to be the order of the day…
Shockingingly unstatesmanlike jibber-jabber from David Ford - the one opportunity he gets to be REALLY useful and he mysteriously goes all self-righteous.
Repeatedly poor analyis of this issue by yourself and Peter SF-got-this-badly-wrong-and-I’m-going-to-keep-repeating-it-until-the battery-on-my-computer-dies Baker. Unless of course you believe that the DUP are trying to help SF out of their poor negotiating predicament?
Good work from Roboo after good pressure from Grizzly and ElGordo.
Fine day (hopefully) dawning for Non Iron.
Posted by on Aug 04, 2008 @ 05:13 PMSammy,
I wouldn’t fancy taking any paper you had editorial control of… ;-) Every time you are asked to point to this ‘poor analysis’, you consistently come up short.
The poor predicament is mutual assured obstruction. There is clearly a will to do something about it. Although I am not sure how you square that ‘pressure’ with Robbo’s speech to the World Bar Council on 30th June.
We are witnessing, as John O’Dowd pointed out in the last edition of the Politics show, a play for the optics.
In which case, all we can do is try to discern what’s real and what’s been set up for our easy consumption.
Posted by on Aug 04, 2008 @ 05:21 PMAlban Maginnis seems a good option. A safe pair of hands in a tough job. Helps the SDLPs Belfast profile.
Posted by on Aug 04, 2008 @ 05:26 PM“.... but why would the DUP or UUP support an SDLP candidate?
Do you really think Robinson will want to face the allegation that he handed justice to a Nationalist?
Posted by cynic on Aug 04, 2008 @ 06:02 PM”
Funnily enough, I would have thought SF would be the party that least wants it to go to the SDLP. The UUP are quoted as saying, effectively, that SDLP are the most obvious next party to give it to. While the DUP would probably prefer it go to the SDLP than to the UUP, and have agreed they will not nominate DUP. So...the SDLP seems the best available option for the DUP.
Posted by on Aug 04, 2008 @ 05:44 PMI think I’ve nearly got the hang of this d’Hondt arithmetic. Am I right that if this ministry had been split into one for policing and another for legal affairs the SDLP would have taken first cut and the DUP the second? Is that a reason SF agreed to keep it in one piece?
Re Alliance; I think they’d be better pushing their committment to democracy and fairness and their refusal to allow the DUP/SF axis to manipulate them into devaluing the votes of constitutional nationalists rather than overplaying this refusal of an invitation they never actually received. It seems a bit weedy.
Posted by on Aug 04, 2008 @ 05:45 PMIt is possible, but only if you think that only one definitive statement can be made on each topic or development.
I hadn’t realised that your posts were intended to be ‘definitive statements’.
But it seems to me that each of us have had different things to say.
Is there some reason why these things cannot be said in comments rather than separate posts?
I have already pointed out the downside (ie, the fragmentation of discussions). What is the upside?
Posted by on Aug 04, 2008 @ 06:01 PMI am a ballymena man and I would love to see Decky O’Loan in there as I have confidence in his ability.However, I could imagine the outcry from some unionists if Nuala’s husband got in there. I agree with you in I would hate to see Attwood, he can come across very bad and angry and I don’t think Sinn Fein and the DUP would have much trouble in laying the blame at his door if things did go wrong. A character like mcDonnell would be harder to lay the blame at and he would come across much better in public.
I have no faith in sf and the dup agreeing on everything anytime soon so the sdlp need to be looking at how they can help themselves out in this situation. A minister who will not lay down to sinn fein over dissidents and the quinn killing would get my vote. Equally, it could gain more of the nationalist vote by being tough on loyalist paramilitaries just like Ritchie. More of this could get young nationalists to have another look at their political outlook. I feel at the minute Sinn Fein is seen as the obvious choice by young nationalists because of there constant rhetoric regarding an Ireland of equals and commemerations. This leads to a certain romance in the minds of people in their early twenties, for this great struggle as they hear, who didn’t really witness the troubles. If the SDLP do take the justice ministry and approach it with a no tolerance stance in regards to paramilitaries on both sides. Couple this with other senior members commenting on the constant inaction of sinn fein and hopefully some will recognise the inability of sinn fein to help run a country when it comes to real issues. I lived in the south during the last elections and was shocked by how little sinn fein grasped politics in the south. They were a joke and failed to realise what matters to southern voters because of their preoccupation on the constitutional matter. This distresses me as I have argued with friends who would support sinn fein. One of their arguements is sinn fein is an all ireland party. I hope the sdlp points out sf’s inability in the south and their lack of understanding of what the economy in the south needed. This makes the claim to be an all-ireland party a little harder to swallow. Personally I think a partnership with Fianna Fail would be perfect. Now that would be an all ireland party. A party that gave Ireland statesmen such as Dev, Ahern and Hume over a party who’s only leader of note got tore apart by McDowell last year in a ‘small’ parties debate.
After my rant, I say put in Decky because they will both hate him as I do not believe he will be quiet. I don’t think he takes into tribal politics either although he has been accussed of this by the DUP locally for quite a while. He responded well to the stabbing in Ballymena a few months back when Daithi mcKay said how bad the situation was getting. He quite rightly condemned the attack while pointing out attacks were actually down and the situation was improving. I think an episode like this shows he is principled and will not throw in lies to suit his position, a quality we should be looking for in our minister for justice. I want him to help show the people of the north how little sf and the dup can agree on in order to show people that a vote for the dup or sf is a waste. They will probably agree on how much they dislike him though. They always seem to agree when it suits the two of them. I would also have confidence in him standing up to paramilitaries on both sides of the divide. I am guessing it would win him quite a few votes in dunclug at the minute.
Posted by on Aug 04, 2008 @ 06:05 PMI suppose I take on the point that the minister should have a legal back ground and this would probably point at maginnis as I don’t think attwood is very likeable. All my middle paragraph still stands though. O’Loan for education sometime maybe, I hear he ran a fine math’s department in St. Louis.
Posted by on Aug 04, 2008 @ 06:14 PMpfhl,
Opponents (from within and without ) of the DUP would use any nationalsit in the post as a stick to beat them with.
If the DUP agreed to this then probably would get ( and deserve) something in return. It would be(correctly) disatrous for SF to be seen in the way.
The simplest answer is the Alliance and the mumbo-jumbo that Ford has come out with surely cannot be sustained or their % rating will be diminsh further - if they cant be arsed to work for the greater good and dont appeal to the tribal instincts of either side then their time is surely up. Ford sounded like a person belatedly asked to a social event he had his heart set on but couldnt accept that he had only made the waiting list.
Posted by on Aug 04, 2008 @ 06:17 PMBefore we decide who gets what and if it a good deal let us have details of the powers to be invested in a Minister. I hope the DUP have watered them down so much that they are meaningless.
Posted by on Aug 04, 2008 @ 06:18 PMUlsterfan,
if SF were nowhere near the scene what would your attitude be?
If the powers are not watered down what % of Unioinists (all shades) do you think will support this (possible )transfer to Stormont?
Why do you think Robbo appears to be jumping?
Posted by on Aug 04, 2008 @ 06:21 PMAny word of the army council standing down.
Surely DUP have asked the Shinners for a deposit at least.
Gerry is well and truly stuck with a British Administration in NI for at least one more generation.
Other than ILA what can he ask for? and what can be denied to him by DUP.
The conflict will soon be over.Posted by on Aug 04, 2008 @ 06:25 PMpfhl
Declan O’Loan comes with an excellent academic pedigree (unlike most MLAs). I believe he is a graduate of Imperial College (London) and Cambridge University, two of the UK’s best three universities.
Posted by on Aug 04, 2008 @ 06:30 PMSammy
I don’t think Robinson is jumping.
He has SF where he wants them to be and has probably been better at negotiations.
Lets wait and see.Posted by on Aug 04, 2008 @ 06:31 PMSammy,
“Why do you think Robbo appears to be jumping?”
You a mildly endearing capacity for eliminating any evidence that threatens the integrity of your own arguments. I await a response to my note at 6.21pm.
Posted by on Aug 04, 2008 @ 06:31 PM
