Wednesday, May 30, 2007
Fine Gael ‘definately’ not talking to Sinn Fein…
Here’s a thing. Enda Kenny is still trying to make a fight of getting the keys to the Taoiseach’s office. Getting the numbers might be a lot easier if they had Sinn Fein on board. Finian McGrath has alleged they have made an approach to that quarter and now the party is in full official denial mode. Though it hasn’t stopped some of their internet ‘irregulars’ from doing a little speculation of their own. Chris Gaskin does some more plausible guess work of his own.
Mick Fealty @ 02:57 PM
SF on board my arse.
The only things possibly on the go are to make a FG/SF deal are:
SF abstentions or voting for Kenny as Head Honcho.
Support for s SF speaker or Seanad position in return.
Thats the top and bottom of it.
There would be defections from FG if it was any more than that and you have two PD types who Kenny would need who may not buy it either.
Even the limited deal above might be too much for some who would make up a formal part of the coalition.
SF wouldnt probably buy into it either.
McGrath is clearing the way for his own tent pitching.
Posted by on May 30, 2007 @ 03:19 PMMcGrath has been shit-stirring from the second it became obvious that the Independents could call the shots in this one. Look at what he said about FF and Labour.
All he wants to do is ensure the price eventually paid by FF to him is as high as possible.
FG would commit total political suicide if they went into Government with SF considering how they used the concept as a stick to beat FF with for so long.
Five years on the opposition benches is surely favourable to a complete party split and a bottoming out in 2012 - worse than the one ten years previous.
Posted by on May 30, 2007 @ 03:32 PM“FG would commit total political suicide if they went into Government with SF considering how they used the concept as a stick to beat FF with for so long.
Five years on the opposition benches is surely favourable to a complete party split and a bottoming out in 2012 - worse than the one ten years previous.”
I don’t think a limited deal far short of a formal coalition would have that level toxicity - particularly if there any more revelations about Bertie. If the arrangement lasted 3-5 years, I doubt it would have a hugely negative impact as SF completes its normalisation process. The problem is that the deal is unlikely to be stable with 4 parties involved and it’s a gamble.
I don’t see anyway into government without some level of SF support for FG though.
Posted by on May 30, 2007 @ 03:48 PMMick
Here’s a website you definitely must have a look at.
;o)
Posted by on May 30, 2007 @ 03:56 PMKensei
as SF completes its normalisation process
What does that mean?
Posted by on May 30, 2007 @ 04:19 PM“What does that mean?”
Er, I dunno. Something to do with the process that SF have went through from being the political wing of the IRA to their being no IRA. Not a lot left to do, really, but perception will always run a bit behind.
What exactly else could I mean? Really?
Posted by on May 30, 2007 @ 04:26 PMWonder what that Gonzo chap does for a living...!
Posted by on May 30, 2007 @ 04:29 PMWhat exactly else could I mean? Really?
Nothing. Just thought it odd that a republican would be so open about SF not being a democratic party yet.
Carry on.
IJP - I know, I know. Bu what does one do when it happens every time, and you like the guy but don’t want to come across as too fussily pedantic.
Even though I fear I just did. Sorry Mick!
Posted by on May 30, 2007 @ 04:35 PM“Getting the numbers might be a lot easier if they had Sinn Fein on board.”
I don’t think so. Morality, for most people, isn’t defined by the ruling political class. Ergo, the ruling political class may have expediently deemed the Shinners free of sin but that has no relevance whatsoever to the moral systems that others may apply. Most folks also understand that psychopathology isn’t cured by a political ‘decontamination’ period; and that the leaders of PSF will remain afflicted with the condition regardless of whatever the period is deemed to be. In short, keep your garbage in your own back yard is the actual message when politicians politely use language such as “incompatible policy issues” in relation to why they won’t confer respectability upon killers and gangsters.
Posted by on May 30, 2007 @ 04:57 PMWell as far as I can see Enda’s options as of Friday were:-
1) Go to bed and cry;
2) Start thinking good thoughts about Sinn Féin.The fact that he is still up and hopeful means either he can’t count or he is coming closer to this notion. I assume (though in politics everything is possible) that you can’t have PDs and SF in the same government, so the latter’s 4 votes are obviously a better bet than the former’s 2.
I think it more likely McGrath is telling the truth. The FG spokesman probably was genuinely unaware of what Macchiavellian plotting was going on.
FG would commit total political suicide if they went into Government with SF considering how they used the concept as a stick to beat FF with for so long.
FG would commit total political suicide if they didn’t go into Government with SF. The PDs electoral wipeout compared with FF’s relative triumph means that the electorate doesn’t really blame you for who you are forced to go into coalition with. Besides, beating FF with a stick doesn’t seem to have made any difference, so it doesn’t really matter if they give FF a stick to beat them with.
Neither sticks nor stones will break my bones
But being out of power would really hurt me.Most folks also understand that psychopathology isn’t cured by a political ‘decontamination’ period; and that the leaders of PSF will remain afflicted with the condition regardless of whatever the period is deemed to be. In short, keep your garbage in your own back yard is the actual message when politicians politely use language such as “incompatible policy issues” in relation to why they won’t confer respectability upon killers and gangsters.
Man dear, did you never hear of Michael Collins?
Posted by on May 30, 2007 @ 05:12 PMFine Gael ‘definately’ not talking to Sinn Fein…
Man ‘definitely’ not biting dog…
Posted by on May 30, 2007 @ 05:52 PMGonzo is definitely an English language teacher.
Posted by on May 30, 2007 @ 06:27 PMI don’t think a limited deal far short of a formal coalition would have that level toxicity - particularly if there any more revelations about Bertie. If the arrangement lasted 3-5 years, I doubt it would have a hugely negative impact as SF completes its normalisation process.
I disagree - even an agreement to support (rather than join a coalition) would cause damage, as that’s something FG said FF would do.
For a start FG would probably lose some of its own members to FF (or Ind.), and they’d lose a lot of face just in time for the 2009 local/EU elections - FF wouldn’t let it lie in 2012 either (even though I think SF might be a viable coalition partner by then in other circumstances).
Of course that’s all based on the assumption that FG working with SF would not alienate all the other minor parties and it probably would to some extent - at least the PDs.
I agree that whatever chance it has in terms of being suggested it has even less chance of actually surviving.
Posted by on May 30, 2007 @ 06:50 PMThe arithmetic of the mooted Rainbow Coalition is, as far as I understand, 51 FG votes, 20 Labour, 6 Green, 3 Independent (Lowry, Gregory and McGrath) and 4 SF, making a grand total of 84. it is assumed that the 2 PDs would rejoin FF. The result would be a left of centre alliance, with a mission to end rip-off Ireland.
As I said, the electorate do not seem to blame you for who you go into coalition with; logically so, because it is the electorate that is responsible for this necessity.
The most likely outcome? No. A stable and lasting government? No. But the 1948 Alliance lasted, miraculously, for 9 years.
Posted by on May 30, 2007 @ 08:19 PMWhy don’t they just ALL form a government? After all, it works so well up Here...(!)
Posted by on May 30, 2007 @ 08:29 PMThe strange thing, that weird coalition would have more former IRA members coming from Labour than SF.
Posted by on May 30, 2007 @ 08:29 PMPerhaps the ‘left’ comprising the horticultural greens the non iron greens plus reds ( labour party & sundry socialists ) should offer themselves as as a job lot under the name ‘alliance for concealing SF amongst smaller parties’ (must be a good acronym in there somewhere) to help poor Enda out.
Posted by on May 30, 2007 @ 08:45 PMChris’s aside about Health shows how far SF have to move to gain credibility in the South.
The govt. won on Health reform, and Harney the wicked witch got re-elected in Dublin SW, a working-class constituency.
This is because the electorate know that Mary Harney is doing the thankless task of tackling the utter and complete managerial and geographic mess and money-pit that is the Irish Health Service.
And while she reforms, SF bleat about A&E;closures, when anyone with any cop-on knows they have to be rationalised to be improved.
The Southern electorate is a bit too sophisticated for ‘they’re closing the local A&E;because they want you to die’.
If I’m in an accident I want worldclass help, efficiently delivered, not death in a hospital handy for visitors.
Posted by on May 30, 2007 @ 09:26 PMChris’s aside about Health shows how far SF have to move to gain credibility in the South
My point on Harney and Health was about the issue of Labour and the Greens, both of whom are opposed to her plans for co-location.
In relation to the Health service I support a Universal free health service, free at the point of delivery.
That view will not be changing
Posted by on May 30, 2007 @ 10:10 PMPaddyReilly,
As I said, the electorate do not seem to blame you for who you go into coalition with; logically so, because it is the electorate that is responsible for this necessity.I can see it now from the Fianna Fáil backbenches:
“Will Taoiseach Kenny join his coalition partner and Justice Minister Aengus O’Snodaigh in the celebration party later tonight for the killers of Garda McCabe who were released earlier today?”
There isn’t a hope in hell of Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil going into government with Sinn Féin this election.
Five years down the line who knows but not a chance now.
Posted by on May 30, 2007 @ 11:15 PMThe hypocricy of telling the DUP its ok for them
but not really shows up the ROI politicans. Most unionst politicans have had personal friends and in many cases family killed.SF are isolated not on principle but by FF and FG trying to outscore each other.
If it was principle they would not have pressurised the DUP. No amount of i’ts differnet up there’ will fool anyone.
What a laugh FF and FG wrestling for the votes of 2 crooks Lowry and Flynn - gombeenery of the highest order.
Posted by on May 30, 2007 @ 11:25 PMIt was Sammy Mc Nally what done it,
Northern Ireland has a madatory coalition, the Irish Republic has a voluntary one. Big difference.
And the DUP felt pressure from Dublin? Really? Tell me more about this.
I’m sure if the DUP had a choice they wouldn’t share power with Sinn Féin, especially if they had the option of people of the calibre of Flynn and Lowry instead.
By the way, cash for peerages is gombeenery of the Highest Order of the British Empire.
Posted by on May 30, 2007 @ 11:36 PMTony Blair/Berty used the threat of plan B/Joint soverignity with ROI to force the hand of the DUP.
They had a ‘mandatory’ coalition becuase the uk and Irish government who together negotiated the framework for GFA decided that it was necessary for Unionists to share power with SF.
From a unionist perspective this is hard to swallow and looks like 1 Garda = 300 RUC.
Corruption in ROI must be the worst in any western eurpoean country - shed loads of the feckers are either in jail or bulshitting at tribunals.
Posted by on May 30, 2007 @ 11:56 PMFive years down the line who knows but not a chance now.
That’s interesting. I was going to ask when on their projected trajectory from armed insurgents to fluffy social workers Sinn Féin would, if ever, reach their goal, and it seems to be in five years from now.
I can’t see what difference 5 more years would make. I doubt that many Unionists will be able to. But I think that guilt adheres to the individual, not to the party.
But isn’t this the electorate’s fault? If they wanted a law and order government they should have re-elected the PDs, and not thrown 4 SF jokers into the pack.
Posted by on May 31, 2007 @ 12:10 AMSorry to take this off topic but:
Tony Blair/Berty used the threat of plan B/Joint soverignity with ROI to force the hand of the DUP.
They implied that Ireland would have a greater say in NI matters - Green-tinged direct rule - but when pushed on it were quick to rule out an joint sovereignty whatsoever. It was quite clear that plan B just saw Britain continuing direct rule and working with Ireland on the all-Ireland aspects the GFA promised anyway.
They had a ‘mandatory’ coalition becuase the uk and Irish government who together negotiated the framework for GFA decided that it was necessary for Unionists to share power with SF.
Well at the time they actually decided it was necessary for the UUP to share power with the SDLP but the division isn’t drawn on party lines - it’s the majority Unionist party and majority Nationalist party.
Corruption in ROI must be the worst in any western eurpoean country - shed loads of the feckers are either in jail or bulshitting at tribunals.
Politicians going to jail? You must be having a laugh!
The majority of people in front of the tribunals are developers who bribed a handful of politicians but the only difference between Irish politicians and British, French and Italian (especially Italian) politicians is that they got caught.Back on topic some people seem to be assuming that FG need SF to reach power - sure those extra 4 seats would help but they could still make the magic 83 figure with themselves (51), Labour (20), Green (6), PD (2), Ind (4). That’s unlikely, but less so than SF being in the mix this time around.
Posted by on May 31, 2007 @ 12:10 AM
