Friday, February 08, 2008
Dromore, posters and the Battleship Potemkin
Right: it is now less than a week until we know the outcome of the Dromore by election. I will again reiterate that this is not the largest political contest ever on earth and it may (only may) be less significant in world terms than the US Presidential primaries. However, it gives me something to blog about so here goes.
The outcome is still pretty unclear. I see from the Dromore Leader that the TUV candidate Keith Harbinson has challenged the DUP candidate to a public debate tonight at 8pm but I have not heard whether or not the DUP will show up so the prospect of a debate is by no means certain.
Whatever the outcome of the election it will be interesting but as I have said before there is a grave danger of people reading too much into it. This especially applies to the TUV. A victory here will not mean that we are about to see the agreement come crashing down. I do not expect to be standing amongst a victorious crowd at the steps of Stormont having won final victory on Thursday or Friday. Though as an aside I was there for a walk with my four year old two weeks ago and thought the steps would be great as the Odessa steps in a remake of the Battleship Potemkin. Equally a defeat should not result in everyone packing up and going home, nor me returning to my remarks about caves which I have been chastised for making before. A good showing for any parties other than the DUP might well, however, be seen by the DUP as a (very small) shot across their bows and make them think a little more carefully about the PR problems inherent in the “love in”. The only problem with this is that Paisley must have been told previously about the problems his public bonhomie with McGuiness is causing with the electorate and indeed within his party. Despite this he seems to persist with this nonsense which I cannot see as gaining many / any liberal unionist votes and alienates more traditional unionists of any party.
If, however, elections were won and lost on the basis of posters alone the Greens would be on the cusp of a heroic victory considering that they have rather cleverly recycled theirs. Also on posters it seems that the DUP are angry that theirs were removed from Kinallen. As the DUP rightly say removing election posters is illegal; the opposite of “Bill Posters will be prosecuted”, remember that one?
Turgon @ 06:25 PM
A huge amount of silly ramping and spinning going on here. Sorry I haven’t responded sooner, but unlike the rest of you, I’ve acutally been spending my time trying to maximise my Party’s vote in the by-election.
Let’s start with the ‘opinion poll’ by Lies and Bigotry. Sample size of 100? Was this telephone, door knocking or a street survey? If the latter, how were the sampling points chosen? If the former, how were the telephone numbers or doors to be knocked chosen? Are you sure that isn’t what Jeffrey or Jonathan Craig told you to put on Slugger?
Oh, and will the cost of this opinion poll appear on Paul’s election expense return? Together with all the glossy booklets and posters, that should bring the total to well over the legal limit!
As for the Young Unionist’s analysis - well, if you’re going to try and analyse an election, it’s best to try and remember what the electoral system is. This election will be conducted under the Single Transferrable Vote system, like every local election in NI for the past 35 years. I realise that most Young Unionists cut their teeth maintaining the Unionist majority on Londonderry Corporation long before that, but 35 years should be long enough for you to catch up with the rest of us! Hence, your talk about ‘majorities’ isn’t really relevant. PS - the UUP don’t know how to canvass, we all know they don’t know how to canvass, so please don’t try and fool us by pretending they do.
Basically, my reading is that there is a huge degree of apathy, coupled with a very soft and apathetic UUP vote, and a fairly disgusted and disaffected DUP vote. Turnout will be low despite the efforts of the parties. The disaffected DUP voters include TUV hardliners, sure, but also secular/pragmatic voters annoyed with Paisley Junior despite being broadly supportive of SF in government. TUV will poll a vote, but it has only really arrived over the past weekend and they could still come 6th.
Oh, and Alliance will poll a fair whack more than the 4% Lies and Bigotry has predicted.
Posted by on Feb 11, 2008 @ 02:25 PMAlex Redpath – Dromore by-election analysis
Sorry Alex, but your piece has the fingerprints of Michael Shillidy are all over it!
“We expect…..”
“I would put our chances….”
“I have every confidence…..”
I suppose yours is the humble “I am not going to make a prediction…” – I can relate much better to that!Don’t worry Michael – I won’t tell Reg that you have broken your vow of silence.
Just a few factors to think about –
Tyrone Howe was one of the best known and most popular candidates ever to stand in Dromore last time – a big slice of his votes were personal and nothing to do with the UUP. To take this into account, is it not reasonable to knock at least 25% off his vote as a starting point for your calculations i.e. 326 of his 1304?
William Martin got 580 votes for the UUP last time, though no seat. William had served on Banbridge council for twenty years and was chairman twice – a very well known councillor who did a lot of work in rural areas for the farming community. He is now backing the DUP candidate, and will take a good number of votes with him.
The biggest threat to the UUP, right across NI, is the Alliance Party. That fact will be seen in Dromore with more of the moderate UUP vote deserting the Party. Also, Alliance did not stand in 05 or 01. When you add to that the fact that David Griffin is a seriously well known and respected person in Dromore, who knows how high the Alliance vote may go.
Dromore is a small rural town and news travels fast. The shambles of a UUP selection process, and the fact that at least half of the Dromore Branch members are refusing to canvas for the Black pretender, is now widely known in the area and will damage her chances. Her sexist “I am a woman” slogan, which women do not like, will not change that. Also, despite the PR spin, she is not well known in the area – until the election campaign started and it was raised a smidgen, but all candidates benefit equally there.
OK Guys, let us see your revised calculations. Don’t be afraid now!
Posted by on Feb 11, 2008 @ 03:57 PMEven if Jim Allister’s man flops big time, it has still been amusing to see the way in which the DUP has been so easily rattled. Take a look at the DUPers’ website where there is a pathetic press release from a Simon Hamilton MLA attacking Allister for submitting too many Freedom of Information requests!
Posted by on Feb 11, 2008 @ 07:01 PMI believe the Green Party will do better than many here expect. The reaction we have recieved when canvassing has been very positive with more and more people seemingly tired of the same old tribal politics.
The Green Party is something new to alot of people and from our result in the 2007 assembly elections it shows that people are beginning to come around to the real Green message.
Posted by on Feb 11, 2008 @ 08:46 PMI would certainly give her one........vote that is :)
Posted by on Feb 11, 2008 @ 10:04 PMWatchman,
Actually the most interesting thing to watch develop over the last few weeks has not been any sense of paranoia within the DUP, but actually the massive sense of over-importance amongst Allister and his supporters.I looked at the Hamilton press release - its got nothing to do with any by-election. Its about Allister being very keen to ask questions but not answer them. Is he going to volunteer the info he asks from everyone else? I’m sure we’d love to know his staffing and office arrangements, in the interests of transparency of course.
The TUV certainly have a very good, very solid council quota of support....... they wont win of course because that quota is spread across Northern Ireland. 100 people at a meeting is quite impressive - but that’s their entire support across the Province, not from Dromore or even Lagan Valley.
Those people shouldn’t be ignored, but they shouldnt be led along by Jim on the false promises and misapprehension that he’ll do something different to the DUP. He’d have been in Government with SF by now - that was the policy he was advocating within the DUP..... You have to wonder how he can share a platform with Wille Ross who still hasn’t actually accepted the principle of power sharing with any nationalist as yet.
The Allister phenomenon will implode like the McCartney one did - only probably more spectacularly. He has too many people who are congregated around for different reasons. His Spotlight interview even seemed to indicate that he knows some of his support will head back to the DUP in a post-Paisley era. Others might believe that not just enough was achieved by the DUP to go into Government. They’ll get fed up when they realise that Jim’s devolution day will always just be around the corner - probably hiding around the same one as Sinn Fein’s united Ireland.
The other complete nutters will get annoyed once Allister inevitably “goes soft” - Willie Ross will probably be in that category. He’ll realise that Allister doesn’t have enough people supporting him who’s great granny signed the Covenant along with ‘boul Willie’s oul da and that will be a sure sign that there’s treachery in the air and he’ll wander back to Dungiven muttering dark expletives about the “young ones these days laddie - can’t trust em”.....
But, at least for the next 3 or 4 days, Chairman (and Kells wing leader) Jim, Vice-Chairman (and leader of the Ballymena ‘sect’) Roy Gillespie and the rest of the happy band will be united together - all feeling, like Watchman does, that they’re really important people.... Well if actual important people take them under the slightest of notice then it must mean something!
But then.... there’s always the Brussels gravy train to keep Jim happy in obscurity… well for the next year and a bit anyway....
Posted by on Feb 11, 2008 @ 11:02 PMSomeone already has, she has just given birth (Green Party candidate that is).
Posted by on Feb 12, 2008 @ 09:01 AMI am curious about something. DUP2Win declared that all the ground work had been done, what exactly was done? I’ve seen some DUP posters in the town and not much else. Wednesday and Thursday will indeed be an interesting day. I’m not unrealistic enough to expect an Alliance victory, however I do expect us to get a much better result than the “statistics” Lies & Biggotry pulled out of his ass.
Posted by on Feb 12, 2008 @ 10:31 AMInterested,
Once more a diatribe of swirling mists of vacuousness! All in all, as usual little substance, other than the bitter belittling of anyone who does not “owe their soul to Paisley”!
Its a wonder us poor flat earthers know about the tinternet web thingy!
The truth is that people like you are running scarred that people within the Unionist community can actually think for themselves and can make their own choices on what to believe.
I believe the DUP has lied to the people!
I await proof of otherwise from you!Posted by on Feb 12, 2008 @ 10:56 AMUlidian,
I’m glad my “swiring mists of vaciousness” (interesting phrase) are of such interest to you. I also note that you don’t bother actually responding to any of the points made there....I’m “running scarred"(sic) of nobody - I don’t see anyone chasing me. People are very entitled to think or believe whatever they want. I’m also entitled to point out when a small number of people seem to believe something which is disputed by a vastly greater number of people - I thought you’d appreciate the merits of majority rule after all. I’ve not said that the minority view should be dismissed - simply pointing out some of the inconsistencies within the camp who are making those points.
They have points of merit - the stuff about lack of opposition is now accepted by everyone. It was first brought into debate by the DUP mind you so its a bit rich of Allister et al to hop on it now of course. The mandatory coalition - again the DUP were the first party to put forward the proposal of moving away from it. Allister is on even more ropey ground there mind you given that he stood for election on a manifesto which specifically ruled it in when there were correct circumstances. He now seems to believe that it could never be acceptable. Its for Chairman Jim and Vice Chairman Gillespie to justify those points. Its for Jim & co to justify the fact that Jim simply didnt want Government last May but argued for six more months (that’s November 07 btw).
I believe there are varying degrees of contentedness within the unionist community. Part of those who are in the broadly “not as content as they might be” category includes some people who are just anti-devolution, some think more should have been achieved before Government and some want devolultion, but just without any nasty nationalists in the Government. Jim has built a coalition of those people which is inherently instable and will ultimately implode. Nothing might speed that more quickly than a realisation that they might simply be being used at the current time to test the water to see if its worth him having a crack at Europe again. If he decides that it isn’t then we’ll see the level of his committment of course.....
Posted by on Feb 12, 2008 @ 12:08 PMUlidian,
i see no evidence that the DUP are running scared of anyone. Care to elaborate with some examples?
As for a diatribe, you should read Jim’s latest poision released today. Referring to Alastair Ross as ‘unelected Alastair Ross’, in light of the circumstances by which Alastair became an Assemblyman (the tragic passing of George Dawson MLA), only shows Jim out to be really quite disgusting.
The people will decide tomorrow. An easy DUP win. Hope you’re as keen to post then…
Posted by on Feb 12, 2008 @ 12:09 PMRat,
Should the TUV get 15 - 20% of the vote it will be a major victory!
Yet i would love the smug looks wiped from the faces of those “souless” DUP clones!Posted by on Feb 12, 2008 @ 12:17 PMUlidian,
The name’s Roland....
Care to elaborate on the idea that the DUP are running scared....you seemed to fail to answer that point.
BTW, you’re beginning to sound like Lady Sylvia Hermon ‘one seat is a wondeful victory’. Equally pathetic as well.
Posted by on Feb 12, 2008 @ 12:22 PM1.The letter sent to party members asking them to go to Dromore to canvas.
2.The landing in of all the big guns, Paisley even turned up twice! (This did the TUV great good as the folk of the town were rippin)
3.The fact that the DUP made a pre-emptive statement in the press against Mr Harbinson, before he had even made any public statements.
4. The fact that no DUP rep turned up to the public meeting!
5. The fact that the DUP have been taking down posters and spreading un-truths about vote splitting.
6. The fact that the DUP attempts to fob of everyone who doesnt agree with them as flat earthers.
7. The fact that Poots just happens to announce money for librarys in Dromore library on the run up to an ellection?
do i need to go on?
Posted by on Feb 12, 2008 @ 12:32 PMInterested,
You will find that mandatory coalition was only one of the several alternatives set out in the DUPs own ellectoral literature or have you forgotten that?
Also included was no guns no government
No terrorists in government
the 11+ was saved
the RIR home battalions were saved
No vetos from Republicans
the list continues.....................Posted by on Feb 12, 2008 @ 12:37 PMUlidian,
Let me respond…
Points 1 & 2 – bringing party members, elected representatives and leadership is hardly an example of ‘running scared’ – surely if that was the case they would have been afraid to meet the public?
Point 3. Oh get you – he called me a name first. Nappy change required?
Point 4. Why would a DUP rep turn up at a TUV meeting, attended by a few dozen TUV members from across Northern Ireland?
Point 5: Over 100 Stewart posters taken down on a Sabbath morn. I rest my case.
Point 6: and?
Point 7: SHOCK HORROR: devolution delivering for Dromore. Here’s a tip – head down to the library, chain yourself to a railing or lamppost and hold a banner saying ‘down with this sort of thing.’
Interesting that young Harbinson has welcomed the extra funding made available for social housing. So he actually welcomes initiatives brought about by devolution, but doesn’t want devolution. Vote 1 Vicki Pollard – yer but, no but. No wonder Jim won’t let him speak on TV.
Posted by on Feb 12, 2008 @ 12:49 PMUlidian,
Not sure whether you’re just a liar or have some more serious problem. That last list is absolute rubbish. Maybe you or some of the flat-earthers imagined/ dreamt the DUP promised these things. They didn’t. I can’t believe anyone genuinely believes commitments like this would ever be made by anyone, even the TUVPosted by on Feb 12, 2008 @ 12:58 PMinterested and Mr. Rat (I hope the more formal referral to your rodently self will not cause too much irritation),
You raise a number of very legitimate comments about the TUV. The movement does indeed need to put forward its own vision of the future and carve out a distinctive set of agreed policies. I am not in a position to help you there as I am far too lowly a supporter / member to be party to help with such matters.
In suggesting the TUV’s need to do this, however, one gets the impression that you are taking this organisation seriously. Indeed that impression is given further weight by the level of involvement of your leadership in the Dromore by election. As I have suggested previously there may be a number of reasons for this but it does seem to be taking the TUV challenge seriously; something which is in contrast to the previous dismissal of the organisation as loony flat earthers.
Of course all political oragnisations are a coalition of differing opinions. The DUP is also a coalition. Clearly some seem less than delighted with the love in. I would further suggest that some like Dr. McCrea have somewhat differing opinions to others such as Messrs. Robinson and Wilson. The DUP are a coalition held together by the wish for political power. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that in itself. The problem seems to be, however, that the DUP have comprehensively dumped so very many of their previously (and recently) help principles and positions in their quest for this political power. Should you have forgotten any of those changes Ulidian has helpfully provided a list of them above along indeed with a list of the low key electioneering done by the DUP’s leadership in Dromore.
Incidentally, indulge me; which version of flat earth nutters, bigots etc. do I fit into?
Regards
Posted by on Feb 12, 2008 @ 01:04 PMJim,
Wake up and start living in this world!
The DUP did promise these things! I have numerous peices of party glossy paper which says these things! OOPS they did actually publish them..... dear dear are they not delivered under wonderful mandatory coalition?
Roland rat,
Keith has been on TV or did you not watch Hearts and Minds!
It was a public meeting and even the alliance candidate was able to turn up! Whats the DUP’s excuse? Also being a local i can say catagorically that there were plenty of locals there not just TUV supporters!
Posters taken down round moneyslane, in Dromore etc? I rest my case!
My conscience doesnt bother me about opposing murderers in government! does yours? Im not bothered about wanting voluntary coalition or any other form of DEMOCRATIC system of government for my country! does it bother you?
you can resort to “nappy changing” comments if you wish. But it says nothing for your arguement!
Posted by on Feb 12, 2008 @ 01:16 PMRoland Rat,
If they are so keen to meet the public then why did Paisley run into the party’s Dromore office as soon as the photo op was over? Was he meeting all the public in there?
Posted by on Feb 12, 2008 @ 01:20 PMTurgon,
I have no idea if you are a bigot.
Ulidian,
Yes i did watch Hearts and Minds. Harbinson seemed to tell the people of Northern ireland that it was all about bringing the poeple along the road, and that the DUP had failed to do this. Didn’t voice any coherent arguments against devolution,just about the need to bring the people along at the same pace. Clearly off party policy i’d have thought.
Has he talked on the box since? Seen him pointing at a computer screen last night, sat with baited breath to be enlightened, then it cut off to some other bloke. My dissapointment was palatable and i waited for him to persuade me to vote for TUV.
Care to comment on Keith’s social housing comments? I thought TUV policy was that nothing good came of devolution. Cracks emerging already?
As for your concern for my conscience, i can assure you it is clear. I have no problem with the party i support delivering for the unionist people of Northern ireland.
Posted by on Feb 12, 2008 @ 01:30 PMRoland Rat,
You and I both know that the media and especially hearts and minds is notorious for editing interviews!
The Point to be raised is that that interview was supposed to have been about the flag issue in Banbridge!
But sure Paul has been wonderful on the box! lol
The DUP certainly are delivering!
Terrorists in the Heart of government!
The corruption of our Education system!
The anti-democratic Mandatory coalition system!
The removal of the Home battalions!
The removal of British symbols from councils!
etc etc etc...........But sure as long as Jnr Paisley got his wish list Ulster is safe!
Hey maybe we will be told that the Docs friend martin is the new Mandella?
Posted by on Feb 12, 2008 @ 01:38 PMInterested,
I have no idea how TUV will do. Parties often surge in response to events and I am not sure that enough adverse things have happened to give the DUP a serious fright. But regardless of the by-election result, and even if the DUP wins the seat, it will not take away the anger and disenchantment with the DUP which exists out there and which is considerably larger than any TUV vote. Consider your ageing chuckling party leader who now adopts nationalist terminology and who tells his critics he has a hotline to his Maker so they had better support him. Or his son, his wish list and uncandid connections. Or Pootsie, hopelessly at sea with the stadium. And I could go on.
What the DUP should be concerned about is people who will drift into abstention rather than support a micro-managing Orange Fianna Fail that is getting too big for its boots.
Posted by on Feb 12, 2008 @ 01:59 PMUlidian aka Ulster-Scot (from the News Letter) aka Stonewall aka Real Stonewall aka Pussy Mat - why not simply admit Keith’s your mate and you’re on here batting for him. There’s no shame in that.
Posted by on Feb 12, 2008 @ 02:01 PMway back when I asked who SF would most want to win the by election- given that they can’t themselves. Any DUPer now care to dispute the theory that they’re rootin’ for the pro-republican publican? And that they least want a TUV win? That’s all the thinking Unionist voter needs to know
Posted by on Feb 12, 2008 @ 02:30 PM
