Friday, February 08, 2008
Dromore, posters and the Battleship Potemkin
Right: it is now less than a week until we know the outcome of the Dromore by election. I will again reiterate that this is not the largest political contest ever on earth and it may (only may) be less significant in world terms than the US Presidential primaries. However, it gives me something to blog about so here goes.
The outcome is still pretty unclear. I see from the Dromore Leader that the TUV candidate Keith Harbinson has challenged the DUP candidate to a public debate tonight at 8pm but I have not heard whether or not the DUP will show up so the prospect of a debate is by no means certain.
Whatever the outcome of the election it will be interesting but as I have said before there is a grave danger of people reading too much into it. This especially applies to the TUV. A victory here will not mean that we are about to see the agreement come crashing down. I do not expect to be standing amongst a victorious crowd at the steps of Stormont having won final victory on Thursday or Friday. Though as an aside I was there for a walk with my four year old two weeks ago and thought the steps would be great as the Odessa steps in a remake of the Battleship Potemkin. Equally a defeat should not result in everyone packing up and going home, nor me returning to my remarks about caves which I have been chastised for making before. A good showing for any parties other than the DUP might well, however, be seen by the DUP as a (very small) shot across their bows and make them think a little more carefully about the PR problems inherent in the “love in”. The only problem with this is that Paisley must have been told previously about the problems his public bonhomie with McGuiness is causing with the electorate and indeed within his party. Despite this he seems to persist with this nonsense which I cannot see as gaining many / any liberal unionist votes and alienates more traditional unionists of any party.
If, however, elections were won and lost on the basis of posters alone the Greens would be on the cusp of a heroic victory considering that they have rather cleverly recycled theirs. Also on posters it seems that the DUP are angry that theirs were removed from Kinallen. As the DUP rightly say removing election posters is illegal; the opposite of “Bill Posters will be prosecuted”, remember that one?
Turgon @ 06:25 PM
Oh and by the way - TUV meeting in the Town Hall undoubtedly showed a landslide of opinion that will sweep their man to victory just like all their meetings before the 2007 election showed they were going to storm the battlements and win big time. What was it again? Oh yea - “miraculous intervention that will save Ulster” - don’t think so Bertie!
Posted by on Feb 09, 2008 @ 12:18 PMWord is from an opinion poll the Dup on coarse though a small sample of only 100
DUP 40
UUP 26
TUV 10
Alliance 4
SDLP 12
SF 8Posted by on Feb 09, 2008 @ 12:58 PMCorrect to how many percentage points, how many times out of 20?
I’d imagine such a poll is meaningless.Posted by on Feb 09, 2008 @ 01:04 PMOf course it’s just a coarse sample, Joe....
Posted by on Feb 09, 2008 @ 01:33 PMMark McGregor - “aghast, If you hover a pointer over your name on the posts above it gives the email address you entered. Whoops.”
Who is to say that someone else didn’t enter her email address?
As for the by-election, it would be good if the DUP didn’t win - as I’m a Unionist! Their arrogance and unwillingness to stand up for the Pro-Union people and real victims is sickening - after all the years of shouting.
Posted by on Feb 09, 2008 @ 02:43 PMA message for ‘aghast’ from the real Ruth Rodgers.
Election times are always a wonderful opportunity for mischief making, and I see that this is one no exception.
Thank you peaceandjustice for pointing out that just because someone has submitted an email address it is not always the case that that is the identity of the person making the comment.
A friend informed me this morning of Aghast’s comments which appear to have been incorrectly attributed to me and I have been in touch with both the UUP and the DUP camps to assure them I was not responsible for said comments, an explanation gratiously accepted by both sides.
As someone pointed out, journalists can’t have opinions and if they do they firmly keep them to themselves. Another thing which I will be keeping firmly to myself in future is my new email address!!
I hope ‘Aghast’ has had their fun and this will be an end to the matter.Posted by on Feb 09, 2008 @ 03:18 PMWith regards to the Alex Redpath blog piece mentioned earlier, it has also been published on this blog:
http://moderateunionistvoice.blogspot.com/
Having read the piece, and the others on that particular blog, I must question how much of what himself and fellow YU officer Alister O’hara (the two of them appear to be the only contributors to said blog) are actually in line with UUP party policy.
Posted by on Feb 09, 2008 @ 05:16 PMRory,
Thank you for picking up on the Battleship Potemkin. I guess you are correct, a remake with TUV supporters on the steps of Stormont called the Light Cruiser Caroline somehow is not as evocative.Posted by on Feb 09, 2008 @ 06:04 PM“...there was a tangible sense of hurt and betrayal in the meeting...
Now that is interesting.
I remember a time when it was only ever a sense of triumphalist braggadoccio at any unionist meeting. Then with the development of the civil rights movement we had the overwhelming sense of threat and warning, of huff and puff.
Now in unionist halls of whatever hue it is all huff and little puff and that old self pitying whinge of wounded disappointment and betrayal.
Which is nice.
Posted by on Feb 10, 2008 @ 01:35 AMMy take on the election from a local perspective is the DUP will win. They have fought a hard campaign on the ground and selected a well known candidate in the country areas. The TUV have brought in outsiders and ran a pretty bitter campaign. The UUP vote will be down pretty significantly with no reason to vote for them indeed I suspect some UU’s will lend their vote to shore up the DUP. TUV voters will be highly motivated although I suspect they will be around the 200-300 mark. DUP voters will be motivated but i suspect not as much as the TUV’s although with 3300 base from the last election they should still make it with about 45% of the vote. In all of this contest the relevance of the UUP has been lost as the DUP and TUV do battle.
Posted by on Feb 10, 2008 @ 09:48 AMAlan
If the TUV vote is only going to be 300 and the DUP have a base of 3,000 why would UUP voters feel the need to shore up the DUP? Pathetic analysis from a troll.You are wrong about the TUV vote, you are wrong about the UUP vote and you are wrong about the DUP candidate. Yes, people know him (know off him?)and that is precisely why they wont vote for him (wont be minded to vote for him).
How can anyone vote for a party that says one thing and does another?
How can anyone vote for a party whose only concern is how deeply they can get their snoughts in the trough?
How can anyone vote for a party that has sold out on every principle it ever had.
Getting it right, don’t make me laugh
You aren’t local, you haven’t even been on the doorstep, and you haven’t a clue about what people are thinking.
Come Thursday the DUP are in for a very rude awakening.
Happy trolling
Posted by on Feb 10, 2008 @ 11:54 AMFortunately Jeff was not seen by Basil, who was doing some overtime with Carol at the front of the Black Office.
Blimey. It hasn’t taken that one long to get around.
Posted by on Feb 10, 2008 @ 12:29 PMdup2lose - We will see who is right on Wednesday. I can appreciate why people will vote tuv or dup but the uup is completely sidelined. Ex uup councillor martin hit the nail on the head in his article in the dromore leader and is now backing the DUP. The uup have been riven with division over the selection of their candidate, whose name escapes me. I suspect your bitterness towards the DUP is clouding any rational thought.
keep taking the happy pills!
Posted by on Feb 10, 2008 @ 06:03 PMAlan
So tell me Alan. How much canvassing did you do? How many people do you know in Dromore? Zero, zilch, absolutely none.If you (the DUP)are so confident why did you have bring out Poots, Craig, Paisley Jnr, Dodds, Donaldson, Hamilton, Weir, Paisley Snr and a host of outside councillors. Touch of overkill for a dead cert?
Seems to me the DUP are worried and they should be. They disappointed a lot of people. The DUP will be squeezed by both the UUP and the TUV. At least both are honest parties, they say what they mean and do what they say.
Which is more than can be said for Willie(My word is my bond)Martin. He and Paul Stewart make a great team. It is enough to drive you to ... Ooops nearly a Freudian slip
PS
UUP to win, TUV to do well, DUP to bomb! (Not expressing a personal preference just the way I read it).Posted by on Feb 10, 2008 @ 08:22 PMdup2lose - you should check the label on those pills your taking because i don’t know what planet your own but it certainly aint this one. The uup are honest? What happened to know guns no government. I didn’t realise craig was a big gun in the DUP but then again compared to the UUP I can appreciate he would be up there.
The DUP will certainly not bomb this election but I don’t see them making it on the first count but the UUP are now totally meaningless. The tuv are just a bunch of misfits and malcontents but there is a vote out there for them to protest against the DUP. I just don’t see why someone would be motivated to vote uup when they have dup and tuv at either end of the scale.
dup2win but not by a landslide
Posted by on Feb 10, 2008 @ 09:46 PMDup2lose “…UUP and the TUV. At least both are honest parties…”
Where have you been?!
An honest selection process?
http://sluggerotoole.com/index.php/weblog/comments/dromore-by-election-in-the-offing/
1. Press Statement - Released Mon 17th December 2007
Ulster Unionist Dromore Selection Candidate Stephen Warke today spoke of his disgust and disappointment with the lack of professionalism displayed by Lagan Valley Ulster Unionist Association in organising and conducting the selection procedure on Saturday morning. Speaking after the event, Stephen said,
“The Selection Meeting was an absolute shambles, indeed the meeting itself, in accordance with the Party Rules could be deemed as ‘illegal’ as several members from the Dromore Branch did not receive their Notice of Meeting 14 days beforehand. Indeed some members received an email no more than 38 HOURS before the Selection Meeting itself. This is just not good enough.â€â€œFurthermore, there was also no advertisement of the ‘electoral vacancy’ placed within any local newspaper or any other media format, which I am led to believe to be a normal convention at such times.â€
“At the meeting itself, Mr. John Hanna raised a matter in the meeting which led to a discussion for almost 20 minutes with regard to my eligibility to stand for the seat. With coming from Belfast I understand the rationale, however, Mr. Hanna is a member of the Scarva Branch of Upper Bann Ulster Unionist Association and as such had no right to attend this meeting, let alone speak at it. I would also contend that as the Chairman of Banbridge District Council it was wrong for him to have interfered in the selection process as I believe there is a conflict of interest. The Chairman of Banbridge District Council in my opinion acted improperly in attempting to influence the outcome of an internal selection meeting.â€
“The second speaker was Mr. Basil McCrea MLA and employer of one of my opponents who also spoke on the same issue only more vociferously and more often. Mr. McCrea is a member of Hillsborough Branch of Lagan Valley Ulster Unionist Association and as such he also had no right to attend this meeting or speak at it.â€
“It is my view that the points raised by these two illegitimate speakers seriously contaminated the selection process to the clear benefit of the other contenders with the Chairman of Lagan Valley being put into a very awkward position and left with very few options when forced to make a ruling.â€
“I have written to the Party Leader on this matter and I await his response. Sadly due to incompetence and mismanagement on what should have been an opportunity to show the progress which the Ulster Unionist Party has made in recent months, only goes to show that whilst there is a will for change throughout the Party, in Lagan Valley old habits die hard.â€
Posted by Stephen Warke on Dec 18, 2007 @ 01:42 PM
AND all the other postings.
Posted by on Feb 10, 2008 @ 10:52 PMAlan
Once again your analysis doesn’t make sense. If the DUP aren’t going to win on the first count who will they get their transfers from? I suspect it won’t be from the TUVRumour has it that SF are telling their people to vote 1SF 2DUP.
On your other point, the UUP candidate is young,female,well known and she works in Dromore. Surely there are some positives in that for a local election.
Do you know Dromore well?
Posted by on Feb 10, 2008 @ 11:06 PMDup2lose “…the UUP candidate is young, female, well known…”
Young – suppose it depends on what age you are and how good your glasses! The Green candidate is young, certainly not the UUP pretender.
Female – well……suppose I must give you that one!
Well known – rubbish! She has only worked politically for Basil in Dromore since May 07 and at that in a back office position most of the time. She has only appeared in public since the December 07 ‘illegal’ selection meeting. Prior to this she has had no public profile in Dromore.
Posted by on Feb 11, 2008 @ 07:57 AMDo you not have to come from your own ward to represent it? If that is the case Carol Black being a Dromore resident is a morally valid choice.
Is the DUP choice not a pub owner?Posted by on Feb 11, 2008 @ 10:00 AMFunniest post on this thread goes to DUP2LOSE after his rant and bile he pronounces,
“Not expressing a personal preference just the way I read it”
Good to see Eddie Hanna on slugger.
Posted by on Feb 11, 2008 @ 10:29 AMNow now Butterknife don’t open that can of worms again, it doesn’t go down well with the Big Man. OK to be pictured with Marty the republican, but not Paul the publican seemingly after looking at the DUP literature.
Interesting to read the DUP faithful waxing lyrical about Willie Martin’s latest conversion to back Paul Stewart. I wonder if these are the same sour grapes that those Party spokesmen accused Eddie Hanna of having this weekend for doing something similiar?
It’s also interesting to read Truth & Justice’s opinion poll. The DUP only at 40%? Surely not! After all, this is the Party that polled 50% in the vote in 2005, that according to Peter Robinson in pre-election meetings last year said were going to gain a 4% net gain in 2007, and the Party that have apparently been delivering so brilliantly for the electorate. Why therefore the sudden drop in support, when by their own standards should be reaching nearly the 60% mark? Surely it couldn’t be that people in Jeffrey’s own heartland are discouraged and disgusted at their elevation of Marty to joint First Minister?
Posted by on Feb 11, 2008 @ 10:35 AMI was at the meeting in Dromore on Friday too.
I must say it was a very good meeting and I certainly saw more than 8 people from Dromore there!
Perhaps thats because i have lived in the area all my life and know the people! lol
Once again the DUP refused to talk real politics and couldnt even send a rep.
Those DUP members that did show up were those who had just left the local Branch to show support for the TUV!
The meeting was very relevant and everything that was said was from the heart! But most importantly wat was said was the truth!
Unfortunately the same cant be said for wat the DUP is telling us!
Down with the CHUCKLE coalition!
Posted by on Feb 11, 2008 @ 11:15 AMI can’t help myself Moe about highlighting the irony between Paul the Publican and his colleague’s decision to make Lisburn Civic Centre a ‘dry’ council chamber!
I’d love to be a fly on the wall in DUP Dromore for that election lolPosted by on Feb 11, 2008 @ 11:38 AMButterknife, I know, I know. Temptation is so hard to resist.Isn’t there also a little irony in the fact that Stewart was passed over at a previous DUP selection meeting and subsequently met with a prominent member of the local UUP to discuss jumping ship? Not sure who turned who down.
Posted by on Feb 11, 2008 @ 12:55 PMThe UUP policy towards alcohol Chuckle Vision is that there should be strong links between the party and this trade ... Its just one long hangover!
Posted by on Feb 11, 2008 @ 01:30 PM
