Friday, February 08, 2008
Dromore, posters and the Battleship Potemkin
Right: it is now less than a week until we know the outcome of the Dromore by election. I will again reiterate that this is not the largest political contest ever on earth and it may (only may) be less significant in world terms than the US Presidential primaries. However, it gives me something to blog about so here goes.
The outcome is still pretty unclear. I see from the Dromore Leader that the TUV candidate Keith Harbinson has challenged the DUP candidate to a public debate tonight at 8pm but I have not heard whether or not the DUP will show up so the prospect of a debate is by no means certain.
Whatever the outcome of the election it will be interesting but as I have said before there is a grave danger of people reading too much into it. This especially applies to the TUV. A victory here will not mean that we are about to see the agreement come crashing down. I do not expect to be standing amongst a victorious crowd at the steps of Stormont having won final victory on Thursday or Friday. Though as an aside I was there for a walk with my four year old two weeks ago and thought the steps would be great as the Odessa steps in a remake of the Battleship Potemkin. Equally a defeat should not result in everyone packing up and going home, nor me returning to my remarks about caves which I have been chastised for making before. A good showing for any parties other than the DUP might well, however, be seen by the DUP as a (very small) shot across their bows and make them think a little more carefully about the PR problems inherent in the “love in”. The only problem with this is that Paisley must have been told previously about the problems his public bonhomie with McGuiness is causing with the electorate and indeed within his party. Despite this he seems to persist with this nonsense which I cannot see as gaining many / any liberal unionist votes and alienates more traditional unionists of any party.
If, however, elections were won and lost on the basis of posters alone the Greens would be on the cusp of a heroic victory considering that they have rather cleverly recycled theirs. Also on posters it seems that the DUP are angry that theirs were removed from Kinallen. As the DUP rightly say removing election posters is illegal; the opposite of “Bill Posters will be prosecuted”, remember that one?
Turgon @ 06:25 PM
Better turnout than expected - could favour the UUP
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 10:44 AMAt this point I’m calling the seat for Carol Black.
UUP Win, tight but its won!
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 10:52 AMToday’s story is how the TUV have shafted the DUP
AND IN STYLE!!!
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 10:53 AMOfficial Figures - first count
UUP 912
GP 59
SDLP 290
SF 350
AP 357
TUV 739
DUP 1069
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 11:06 AMWhat’s the quota DV?
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 11:09 AMLooks like the total vote is around 3700 - Quota around 1850 on that basis.
Good result for the TUV - not really much way of going around that one. Protest votes are sent out at by-elections and fools ignore them.
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 11:13 AMThat gives 3776 total votes.
Therefore:
- DUP 1069 (28%)
- UUP 912 (24%)
- TUV 739 (20%)Is a 157 lead enough for Stewart? Interesting to see where transfers go, least of all TUV’s.
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 11:14 AMa 157 lead for Stewart is a crushing defeat for the DUP. Peter Robinson hasn’t directed this election too well…
Is the beginning of the wheels coming off the Democratic Unionist Party cart????
We await Paul Stewart’s speech to concede defeat to the Ulster Unionist Party.
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 11:17 AMQuota confirmed at 1,889.
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 11:19 AMDromore Vote Counter,
I think I said in a post some time ago to Turgon that the only certainty in this election is that someone will attempt to portray it as something it isn’t.Its a bad day for the DUP - not the beginning of the end for the DUP. The vote shouldn’t be ignored but it shouldn’t be seen as utter meltdown either. Clearly Robinson had nothing to do with the election - I don’t think he took too much time away from working on a budget to run a by-election in Dromore.
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 11:22 AMSee for continuation?
http://sluggerotoole.com/index.php/weblog/comments/by-election-background/
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 11:50 AMClonakilty
DUP: 39-45%
UUP: 17-25%
TUV: 9-17%Even with that wide margin of error, you’re wide off the mark. Stick to fashion advice in future.
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 11:50 AMOr here -
http://sluggerotoole.com/index.php/weblog/comments/rumours-from-dromore/
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 11:54 AMFirst Minister Paisley very glum and grim faced walking into British Irish Council meeting this morning…
Even he knows he’s beaten today…
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 12:10 PM“First Minister Paisley very glum and grim faced walking into British Irish Council meeting this morning… “
Isn’t divine retribution supposed to be heading the other way?
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 12:19 PMAlliance had very few people on the ground and I think that was a mistake
I don’t take advice from parties who lose nearly half their vote in the space of a year. Just because we weren’t getting into rows with the massive and frankly obstructive crowd of DUP and TUV activists outside Central Primary, doesn’t mean we weren’t about. You didn’t see us, you didn’t know what we were doing? Suits me fine.
More than twice the vote we’ve ever had in the area and a council seat the next time they’re all up? I’m pretty happy.
Slán amhaile.
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 03:29 PM
