Friday, February 08, 2008
Dromore, posters and the Battleship Potemkin
Right: it is now less than a week until we know the outcome of the Dromore by election. I will again reiterate that this is not the largest political contest ever on earth and it may (only may) be less significant in world terms than the US Presidential primaries. However, it gives me something to blog about so here goes.
The outcome is still pretty unclear. I see from the Dromore Leader that the TUV candidate Keith Harbinson has challenged the DUP candidate to a public debate tonight at 8pm but I have not heard whether or not the DUP will show up so the prospect of a debate is by no means certain.
Whatever the outcome of the election it will be interesting but as I have said before there is a grave danger of people reading too much into it. This especially applies to the TUV. A victory here will not mean that we are about to see the agreement come crashing down. I do not expect to be standing amongst a victorious crowd at the steps of Stormont having won final victory on Thursday or Friday. Though as an aside I was there for a walk with my four year old two weeks ago and thought the steps would be great as the Odessa steps in a remake of the Battleship Potemkin. Equally a defeat should not result in everyone packing up and going home, nor me returning to my remarks about caves which I have been chastised for making before. A good showing for any parties other than the DUP might well, however, be seen by the DUP as a (very small) shot across their bows and make them think a little more carefully about the PR problems inherent in the “love in”. The only problem with this is that Paisley must have been told previously about the problems his public bonhomie with McGuiness is causing with the electorate and indeed within his party. Despite this he seems to persist with this nonsense which I cannot see as gaining many / any liberal unionist votes and alienates more traditional unionists of any party.
If, however, elections were won and lost on the basis of posters alone the Greens would be on the cusp of a heroic victory considering that they have rather cleverly recycled theirs. Also on posters it seems that the DUP are angry that theirs were removed from Kinallen. As the DUP rightly say removing election posters is illegal; the opposite of “Bill Posters will be prosecuted”, remember that one?
Turgon @ 06:25 PM
Alliance candidate mentions every settlement in the Ward! Would expect no less.
Facebook perhaps not a great idea not much action there
Posted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 04:49 PMLook at stage 12 for an example of the efficiency of inter Unionist transfers - if I understand it properly.....
Posted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 05:09 PMSorry what was wrong with what I said?
I’m not out making vague statements like alliance “have a well liked candidate” and must be on cue to do brilliantly.
I am of the opinion that APNI is becoming less relevant in our post devolution caring sharing era and therefore the Greens will be on cue to pick up the indecisive vote. (They have won such battles in the nearby areas of Upper Bann, Newry & Armagh and the overlapping South Down)
One could say
“the Ulster Unionist vote is in so much decline they still returned an MLA in March 2007.” Doesn’t necessarily mean that said party will find the Dromore election result happy readingSmaller parties tend to be good at getting their voters out. Between 1997 & 2001 there was a rise in turnout in local elections as they were held on the same day as the general election. However despite additional voters generally the numbers of APNI votes stayed the same (and so they had a lesser percentage). Eg. Ballymena North, Coleraine Central, Ballyclare
Mr Crozier demonstrated Alliance are fighting a marker of round 200 in 1997. Bringing out this number of votes is not a success IMHO
& just for the record
Swearing isn’t big and it isn’t cleverPosted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 05:14 PMAnother good flyer just through my door from Alliance -
Heading ‘Don’t Forget’ - with an quaint elephant graphic.
Then an ‘alarm clock running’ graphic with the words -
Time is running out for you to help David Griffin Win!
and
Polling Stations close at 10pm TONIGHT!You guys really know how to get your message through - full marks.
Posted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 05:29 PM“You guys really know how to get your message through - full marks.”
Shame so few people are willing to hear it!
Posted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 06:04 PMLooks as if turnout was about 34% in Dromre by-election.
Posted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 10:11 PMDewi - I’m pretty sure SF will beat the SDLP, because Sinn Féin are absolute masters at low turnout elections and the SDLP, er, aren’t. And that stage 12 is the transfer of a surplus, so the actual number of papers transferred was 2048 at 0.69 each, or about 70%. Still not bad.
Mark - I’m sure David’s election agent is flattered!!! I will e-mail you off list.
Dromore Voter/Vote Counter - I will be truly tickled pink if your predictions are correct. I am not ordering in the champagne just yet, though. Too many flaky Unionists that didn’t quite flake at the end of the day.
Turnout ~30% in the town at 9 pm.
Posted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 10:24 PMOh, and Buggerhed. Does every Green activist on the internet spend their entire time rubbishing - and actively misrepresenting - the Alliance Party?
I’m not going to get drawn into a childish spat with the only other non-communal party with a credible chance of winning anything anywhere, but please change the script. Shouldn’t you be campaigning on the positive things you have to say?
PS - your leaflet in Dromore implies the Greens would abolish tax, or at least corporation tax, VAT and any taxes paid by business on their profits. Are you sure that’s really what you wanted to say?
Posted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 10:28 PMSammy - you must get to see the votes tonight though - don’t they do turnout? And you get to tally? If not where do they keep the ballot boxes?
Posted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 11:51 PMDewi,
They are going to be safely kept by me personally in a most fair and democratic fashion.Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 12:01 AMTurnout is 38% in the by-election with just over 3600 votes cast out of an electorate of 9600.
Dromore Town around 36% with the rural area coming in at 40%.
This will give a quota of just over 1800.
This is an impressive turnout for a by-election that many including myself thought would be very low. Looking back at the 2000 by-election turnout was 37% so it appears voters have been energised to get out, as much as one can be for a by-election.
The reason for this motivation I believe is because of the TUV and DUP Battle. The core DUP vote is solid and despite forecasts of apathy has came out. My prediction on what the vote will be is:
DUP 1700
UUP 800
TUV400
SF 250
SDLP 200
All 150
Green 50Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 12:09 AMSammy Sammy Sammy… dear oh dear oh dear. I have my fingers in quite a lot of pies don’t I: being a stoop on on thread and a green (party activist!) on another.
“Does every Green activist on the internet spend their entire time rubbishing - and actively misrepresenting - the Alliance Party?”
How could I possibly answer that? It’s funny you put a question mark after ‘the Alliance Party?’ as if it’s in some way beyond ridicule. I expect your asking how I could disagree with an organisation that stands for nothing
“your leaflet in Dromore implies the Greens would abolish tax, or at least corporation tax, VAT and any taxes paid by business on their profits. Are you sure that’s really what you wanted to say?”
Afraid that I didn’t stand in Dromore , so I didn’t actually produce a leaflet.
If I had a vote today I’d have given the greens my fourth prefrence incidentally.
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 02:49 AM“They are going to be safely kept by me personally in a most fair and democratic fashion.”
Very good Turgon - at the back of your cave guarded by Smaug no doubt.
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 06:45 AMRyan “Turnout is 38% in the by-election with just over 3600 votes cast out of an electorate of 9600”
Garith Gordon BBC Radio Ulster has just said 30%
At 10pm close in Dromore last night, figure being quoted was 30% and 34% when postal votes were also taken account. An observir at one of the countryside poling stations was quoting 38% there.
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 07:14 AMGood picture of Tyrone Howe - a lost opportunity for the UUP. Symbolic of those who have simply walked away.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/7243977.stm
Will the UUP ever learn?!
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 07:58 AMSammy,
Do that. I’d like to hear about the split in Finnis out of nothing other than complete sadness.
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 09:11 AMWe’ll al know soon enough, but for what its worth I reckon a higher turnout suits the DUP. People that are hacked off are more likely to come out and vote against the status quo - at about midday when the turnout was 10% Allister’s people were delighted and seriously believed their man was coming first (BTW Jim, running around in a Roy Gillespie-style baseball cap just looks silly).
By-elections are odd things and its never easy to call them, but I think the DUP will top the poll.
DUP: 39-45%
UUP: 17-25%
TUV: 9-17%
SDLP: 8-10%
SF: 7-11%
OTHS: ~8%Alliance had very few people on the ground and I think that was a mistake - this election was a real chance for them to eat in to the UUP vote.
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 09:53 AM(BTW Jim, running around in a Roy Gillespie-style baseball cap just looks silly).
Indeed, Clonakilty, but then we’re not all blessed with your boyish charm and good looks.I bet you could carry it off, though.
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 10:13 AMTally
UUP 999
GP 71
SDLP 235
SF 292
AP 308
TUV 685
DUP 1021
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 10:26 AMBoyish charm? I wish.
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 10:31 AMAbove is UUP tally - dont know what others have come up with.
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 10:33 AMIntersting statistics Dromore Voter…
If we follow it through it means
Green Party eliminated first 67 votes to transfer will end up with a value of approx 40 - where they go nobody knows lol
SDLP next and wud expect most of them to go to SF, although some will go to Alliance
Alliance next with the chop - UUP could benefit from value of roughly 200 votes, taking them above DUP
SF next with a value of approx 400 to be spread out… could be interesting to see how many their DUP Bedfellows get…
At this point, the real fun and games will begin as the 3 Unionists are left…
Impression being given yesterday was that TUV were encouraging votrs to transfer to UUP so if Harbinson comes in third, UUP will take the seat
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 10:34 AMVery interesting if those tallies are accurate, Dromore Voter (and I have no reason to suspect they’re not). Can’t see many TUV to DUP transfers - the DUP could be in a hole here.
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 10:34 AM39.15% Turnout
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 10:36 AMRumour has it that DUP tally has UUP in the 700’s - are the UUP figures optamistic?
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 10:43 AM
