Friday, February 08, 2008
Dromore, posters and the Battleship Potemkin
Right: it is now less than a week until we know the outcome of the Dromore by election. I will again reiterate that this is not the largest political contest ever on earth and it may (only may) be less significant in world terms than the US Presidential primaries. However, it gives me something to blog about so here goes.
The outcome is still pretty unclear. I see from the Dromore Leader that the TUV candidate Keith Harbinson has challenged the DUP candidate to a public debate tonight at 8pm but I have not heard whether or not the DUP will show up so the prospect of a debate is by no means certain.
Whatever the outcome of the election it will be interesting but as I have said before there is a grave danger of people reading too much into it. This especially applies to the TUV. A victory here will not mean that we are about to see the agreement come crashing down. I do not expect to be standing amongst a victorious crowd at the steps of Stormont having won final victory on Thursday or Friday. Though as an aside I was there for a walk with my four year old two weeks ago and thought the steps would be great as the Odessa steps in a remake of the Battleship Potemkin. Equally a defeat should not result in everyone packing up and going home, nor me returning to my remarks about caves which I have been chastised for making before. A good showing for any parties other than the DUP might well, however, be seen by the DUP as a (very small) shot across their bows and make them think a little more carefully about the PR problems inherent in the “love in”. The only problem with this is that Paisley must have been told previously about the problems his public bonhomie with McGuiness is causing with the electorate and indeed within his party. Despite this he seems to persist with this nonsense which I cannot see as gaining many / any liberal unionist votes and alienates more traditional unionists of any party.
If, however, elections were won and lost on the basis of posters alone the Greens would be on the cusp of a heroic victory considering that they have rather cleverly recycled theirs. Also on posters it seems that the DUP are angry that theirs were removed from Kinallen. As the DUP rightly say removing election posters is illegal; the opposite of “Bill Posters will be prosecuted”, remember that one?
Turgon @ 06:25 PM
Mark,
Is that your personal prediction or have you have info for those figures?
Posted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 02:33 PMIts just a bit of messing. Now I have a reason to check the result of a contest I had zero interest in.
Posted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 02:37 PMdarth rumsfeld “I’ll get me sash”
Unreliable rumour has it that Basil has one under his shirt and whips it out when opportunity requires it!
Posted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 02:44 PMNot too many DUP posters here today!
They must all be kneeled praying at the great alter of Paisley offering up their souls for a favourable result today! lol
Posted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 02:48 PMCounting tonight?
Posted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 02:59 PMWhy did Tyrone Howe resign from Banbridge Council?
Posted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 03:00 PMTomorrow Dewi.
Voting today tho.
Posted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 03:00 PMDewi,
Not on your life. They may start counting proper mid-morning tomorrow.
Posted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 03:02 PMSo strange - there will only be a couple of thousand votes - coould wrap it up in a couple of hours.
Posted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 03:02 PMHe sighted other commitments.
But the reality is that it was really his dad who pushed him into it. He had really no interest in politics at all.
Posted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 03:04 PMAndrew aka Ulidian
Not out canvassing for your mate Harbinson today? Still I suppose the “work” you’re paid for in the Ulster-Scots sector does require a certain level of committment, I mean its not like you could waste your precious time faffing about handing out leaflets or, err.... messing around here.
Posted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 03:06 PMDewi,
I agree, but Ulster has always been strange. The counters are notoriously slow here! Whereas on the mainland different ares compete against eachother to get finished first!
Posted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 03:08 PMI think McGregor writes the Alliance off at his peril. Our candidate is actually well known and liked in the area which will attract many who would traditionally vote UUP. Plus even Unionists like Dromore Voter was impressed with the personalised letter from David Griffin, how many other will appreciate that. Plus with David having beeb so prominate in the community as VP of Banbridge Academy.
I’ll go on a limb here and now and predict that Alliance will beat TUV maybe not by a significant margin. The nature of the TUV’s birth does not give a lot of scope for attracting transfer votes from the DUP or UUP while David Griffin because of the reasons i liked above. My full guess is DUP first, Alliance second, UUP just behind them, TUV forth, The Greens fifth, SF sixth and the stoops last.
Posted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 03:35 PMSF to beat SDLP Pounder.....seems unlikely to the untutored:
Votes by Party:
DUP: 3,000 (49.8%), 3 seats
UUP: 1,184 (31.3%), 1 seat
SDLP: 712 (11.8%), 1 seat
SF: 429 (7.1%)2005 result.
Appreciate all sorts of thing effect local elections but that would be quite a move amonst a small number of people.
Posted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 03:39 PMLow turnout and 3 way split of the Unionist vote gifts Alliance with the seat.
Well Done UUP - this seat was yours if you had done the right thing and not run the illegimate candidate. Yet another big mistake from Lagan Valley UUP. Well done Basil McCrea, completely useless. You’re an embarrassment to the people of Lagan Valley.
Some people never learn…
Posted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 03:40 PM“Low turnout and 3 way split of the Unionist vote gifts Alliance with the seat.”
Even I know that you have transfers.......
Posted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 03:42 PMPounder,
Only working off how Alliance fared the last time it set foot in the ward over a decade ago, poorly. Work and time may have changed things.
Dewi,
The reason I had SF ahead was because in the most recent election that covers this area SF creamed the SDLP in both the Assembly consituencies. Really cleaned them, wiped their clock. Badly now, not just a wee bit. Tanked them in every ward at every level. I can’t see how they can bounce back from that in a few months.
Posted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 03:49 PMDromore vote counter,
In an 80% unionist ward even a three way unionist split like you suggest would not come close to returning an alliance councilor.
sorry but thats just wishful thinking!
Posted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 04:04 PMI retract my Alliance prediction. Just saw who their election agent is and its the clincher ;0). I put them coming in third with 500.
Posted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 04:05 PMTransfers will be a big thing… I’m happy to be wrong but these are my thoughts…
DUP don’t transfer - never have and never will. Speaking from various count experiences, the DUP simply just don’t transfer.
UUP Transfers - Hate DUP won’t transfer there, TUV perhaps, but they hold a vastly different policy on powersharing etc so I wouldn’t bank on TUV getting UUP Transfers.
TUV transfers - non existent - TUV Voters neither like the stance of the UUP or the DUP. However, they may take the ‘Bob McCartney Approach’ of March 2007 - “At least you know where you stand with the UUP” and UUP may gain some, but only a few transfers.
Posted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 04:10 PMAlliance will do poorly. I expect the non-thinking vote in this area is property of the green party.
The greens outpolled APNI in South Down and Upper Bann, both taking in parts of Banbridge (although no Dromore is in the latter), whereas I imagine that APNI’s Lagan Valley vote is in Lisburn but it’s been in decline for about a decade or so, especially with the Seamus Close fiascoPosted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 04:10 PMUlidian,
In an 80% unionist ward even a three way unionist split like you suggest would not come close to returning an alliance councilor.
Who says there’ll be a high turnout of these 80%?
(Disclaimer: I am not pro-Alliance)
Posted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 04:15 PMWell folks tomorrow will tell the tale!
Wish i could say it was an equal fair fight all round, but who am i trying to kid! lmao!
Posted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 04:17 PMYes Buggerhed, the Alliance vote is in so much decline they still returned an MLA in March 2007.
Again, let me remind you i am not pro-Alliance, but for fuck sake, please talk with a bit of knowledge and if not knowledge, common sense.
Clearly, you are also not aware of other polling data circulating at the moment from Bel Tel and the NIO.
Posted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 04:18 PMAll ball playing people are outraged at Black Carol’s claims.The Internatonal Rugby Board have issued a statement from a spokesman called Sid that she is bringihg the oval ball game into disrepute as not even the ugliest prop forward would ruck with her.Some commentators say that her recent performances have contributed greatly to the poor form shown by all except the Welsh and the Italians.According to our international Rugby reporter the Greek administrator Spherical Objects has said that they will delay their entry into the Seven Nations contest until Black Carol can give an undertaking in the future that all ball tampering will cease fortwith.
The F.A. are of a similar mind and are very concerned at the rumours that The Brush is sponsoring a new Dromore Ladies Football team called The Black Amazons with a minimum age of forty five for entry. The Brush has promised to buy the strips from a Lurgan based supplier who recently supplied a Flute band in Stoneyford which it is also believed received a similar sponsorship deal.Posted by on Feb 13, 2008 @ 04:29 PM
