Friday, February 15, 2008
Dromore from the green side
The Dromore by-election victory for the UUP has led to much discussion on Slugger and elsewhere about the significance of the TUV vote. Is it a threat to the Executive? Can TUV deliver a stronger deal for Unionism? What were the reasons for the TUV vote?
Of course, there are numerous unionist posters on this site with an informed opinion of the thinking within the various branches of unionism. So here’s my take on the significance or otherwise of today’s result from a non-unionist perspective.
Firstly, to answer the questions above. The TUV vote, while providing food for thought for the DUP, shouldn’t affect the running of the Executive nor the Assembly. The DUP- like everybody else up there- has committed itself to working the institutions and is fully aware that there is no alternative path to the future. Sure, the DUP may be tempted to sabre rattle over policing and justice, or indulge in more petty sectarian ranting against the Irish language, catholic schools or even the GAA (all traditional favourite targets), but in the end up the party will know that the deal has been done and that every step forward is one taken with Sinn Fein a la Victims Commissioners and Long Kesh/ Maze (which answers the second question.)
In that regard, this vote should send the message to the DUP that the type of reckless goading of nationalists indulged in by far too many of their MLAs should be replaced by more measured comments, in full knowledge that future deals the party will have to make with Sinn Fein will merely provide the TUV with ample ammunition to target the DUP. The party needs to begin educating their base as to the need to respect the nationalist identity, so that when decisions are taken down the line their support base does not react to TUV complaints that the DUP are changing their position.
From a nationalist perspective, the TUV vote merely confirms the continued existence of a chunk of the unionist electorate which has set its face against power-sharing with their neighbours and against recognising the divided loyalties that exist within this community. The furore over the ‘Town Hall’ symbols illustrates starkly the need for the DUP to begin legitimising the Irish nationalist identity within their own community. It’s hardly surprising that this vote should surface, given that the former home of the TUVvies was the DUP, which spent far too little time preparing and educating their activist and electoral base for the volte-face the party performed in 2007 regarding power-sharing with Sinn Fein.
The result today suggests that Sinn Fein may be much closer to becoming the largest party in the six counties than most observers would have believed. The Sinn Fein candidate comfortably outpolled the SDLP candidate in an electoral area (Dromore) which has traditionally been strong SDLP territory- indeed, the SDLP even outpolled Sinn Fein there in 2005. Taken with the comfortable by-election victory in Moyle in December 2007 (which received very little media coverage) the result confirms that Sinn Fein continues to strengthen its electoral appeal within nationalism as the SDLP’s slide into the margins continues.
The DUP are now in a battle with the TUV that will peak during the Euro elections next year, when, ironically, a Sinn Fein poll topper may steal the thunder of the rival unionist parties and commence a battle for the top spot in the next Assembly election.
Chris Donnelly @ 12:30 AM
As an oul’hand, and I know you might hate to acknowledge this,Chris,(perhaps you’re not old enough) but SF thinking today has become not unlike that of the Republican Clubs in the 70’s. Read old speeches from the likes of Malachy McGurran, McMillen, etc, (even Tom French nicknamed the Emerald Pimpernel cos the Brits couldn’t catch him). We classed them all(the Rep Clubs)then as reformists, not revolutionaries.
Can you explain the difference? SF of today is morphing into the Republican Clubs and then work out their journey ‘til today. The similarities are very scary. Connolly would turn in his grave.Revolution - not reform.
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 02:33 AM“From a nationalist perspective, the TUV vote merely confirms the continued existence of a chunk of the unionist electorate which has set its face against power-sharing with their neighbours and against recognising the divided loyalties that exist within this community”
Spot on - it’s so sad but so true.
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 07:21 AMIn a democratic society, what’s a reformist?
Someone who turns up on the doorstep and does not shoot the voter?
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 07:32 AMwhat is the differnce between the SDLP and SF? i cant see one.
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 08:30 AMThe TUV can achieve nothing positive - its efforts are futile.
At worst/best (depending on your viewpoint) it could cause the DUP to collapse the Executive by drumming up enough opposition and nervousness, but I can’t see this happening.
More likely is that it will serve to split the unionist vote; or it might just fade away.
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 09:19 AMUnionism is feeling the winds of change and is doing its best to cope in the hope that those winds will blow the other way.
This result has a lot to do with the, Never ,Never ,Never spin that was fed to the Unionist voters.People do feel betrayed and this is a song that the TUV nad Jim Allister may be singing in the near future,
Two little oul boys
Two little oul boys had two little toys
Each had a Trojan political horse
Gaily they taunted each other ever other day
Warriors both of course
One little oul chap then had a mishap
A Dromore result broke off his horse’s head
Wept for his toy then cried, he was annoyed
As his young playmate said
Thinking back I’m glad to see you crying
There’s no room on my horse for two
Don’t limb up here, Ian and don’t be lying
I can go just as fast without two
When we grew up we became political soldiers
And our Trojan horses became our toys
And I wonder if you remember
When we were two traditional DUP oul boys
Long years have passed, is the war really over at last
Cos Gerry said they haven’t gone away ( ya know)
Cannon may still roar loud, and in the mad crowd
Wounded and dying your political career may lay
Up will go a shout, a horse will dash out
Out from the ranks so red white and blue
It’ll gallop away to where you may lay
Then will came a traditional voice you once knew
Thinking back I’m glad to see you crying
There’s no room on my horse for two
Don’t limb up here Ian and don’t be lying
I can go just as fast without two
Did you say Ian, you feel like Trimble
Perhaps it’s the battle’s noise
But I think it’s that I remember
When we were two little DUP oul boys
Thinking back I’m glad to see you crying
There’s no room on my horse for two
Don’t limb up here Ian and don’t be lying
To the ranks of red white and blue blue
Can you feel Ian I’m all a tremble, never a Trimble
Perhaps it’s the battle’s noise
But I think it’s that I remember
When we were two little DUP oul boysPosted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 09:25 AMwhat is the differnce between the SDLP and SF? i cant see one.
Posted by harry on Feb 15, 2008 @ 08:30 AM
Well one is in the midst of trying to sell their soul to an evil right wing party, rife with corruption and dodgy dealings and who courted terrorists when it suited them only to abandon them and leave them in the wilderness. The other party is about to merge with Fianna Fail :)
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 09:35 AMI thoought Tim McGarry hit it nicely at the end of Hearts & Minds in a clip that you can see on the main page of BBC NI webpage in the section “Also in the News” under “Stormont through a Taxi Drivers eyes” when he says “T.U.V. - the party that stands for the people who miss the B-Specials!”
and Poots v Allister earlier on the programme
last night brought tears to me eyes!!Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 10:00 AMChris,
On this turnout, I’d be wary of extrapolating too much into the future. Especially since we’re seeing transfer patterns in this election that are all over the place. Some of of them with little precidence.
The advance of Alliance looks more convincing. They think they can take a seat on this basis. I’d hold my counsel on that, since it would represent a blossoming in an area they have no recent history in.
Still, from what I hear, the returns from Leitrim seems to indicate a sharp weighting towards SF. My only word of caution on that even is that there was not much in this fight for any nationalist and low turnout generally favours Sinn Fein.
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 10:06 AMI think Chris’ analysis on the unionist end of things is a bit OTT, but he’s right on the nationalist vote. This wasn’t a great day for SDLP.
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 10:08 AMInteresting post, Chris. The result shows something really fundamental about the psyche of the Unionist community (my community). There is a section of people there who, rightly or wrongly, would never be prepared to see SF in government. I think, hand on heart, that even if every one of their demands were met, there is a real hatred there, an enemy psyche, that won’t disappear. And Paisley must accept a large part of the blame for that: the never, never, never talk has produced a deep-seated arrogance in sections of Unionism who believe that they can have everything their own way. Listen to Jim Allister talking about how the TUV obtained X% ‘of the Unionist electorate’!
And there’s the problem: an introverted, narrow minded, little Ulster attitude, refusing to accept the existence (and electoral threat of)another community, who thrive on a ‘smash our opponents’ mentality. And now the enemy of these people, the ones they want to smash, is the DUP: sellout mentality being another favourite gripe (that gets them nowhere).
At least Paisley has recognised that gets you nowhere. Unionism needs to be more confident, pragmatic, self-assured, and the DUP need to sell this deal instead with some conviction instead of running scared of TUV. Can you imagine SF/SDLP tearing into one another with such intensity? No way, their electorate and political leaders are too savvy, too intelligent for such actions. Unionism needs proper leadership, to stop looking in on itself all the time, otherwise they will have a SF first minister quite soon. And as for those Unionists who say ‘what’s the difference between a DUP and an SF first minister anyway’: well, their narrowmindedness, their sheer obstinacy, demonstrates everything I’ve said here.
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 10:13 AMCan you imagine SF/SDLP tearing into one another with such intensity?
Yes.
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 10:20 AMThere’s huffing and puffing on both sides, but you’re right chris the power-sharing exec is the only show in town.
I’m starting to think that the UUP and SDLP are a form of opposition in themselves; as they’re asking the awkward questions of DUP/SF. This is healthy.as regards TUV, its true Paisley didn’t really prepare his party for power-sharing, this is maybe why they gave a “protest vote”; but its hard to see them going from strength to strength.
By and large the Assembly is working well; bar IPJ’s mishaps; and trouble in the SA borderlands with former bosses unable to accept they’ve been handed their P45’s !!!Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 10:25 AMMick,
Alliance are blowing smoke up your ass about taking a seat here. With RPA coming they wouldn’t have the basis to get a bus ticket to the council on that vote.
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 10:29 AMRPA Mark?
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 10:48 AMGot it But I thought this had been scrapped?
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 10:54 AMWe’ll see Mark, the figures epeak for themselves. 9.5% of the vote in an area we’d not even contested for 11 years. Unlike other parties we’ll keep working in the area and by the next election we’ll increase our vote share.
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 10:56 AMAllister’s main problem seems to be with the Army Council. The IRA are unlikely to get rid of it easily if they know that it’s existence could help cause disruption within Unionist parties. But meh, it’s a moot point, the Army Council thing is pretty much a front for basically not wanting Sinn Fein in government no matter what. Basically keeping the Army Council leaves the DUP in an awkward place, removing it would leave Allister in an awkward place.
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 11:00 AMThis really shows to me that unionism is running scared. Despite all the shouts of ‘The IRA defeated’ and ‘what was it all for?’ and ‘Sinn Fein administering British rule’, there is a large proportion of the unionist vote that believes the GFA is a major step towards a UI and that Sinn Fein got more out of it than they are willing to admit. Even the DUP think this way, in their explaining of the result. If the union was, as has been the common cry, safer now than ever, then why the need for the TUV? Either unionists are scared the game is up and the undemocratic entity that is NI is in danger of disappearing, or as SW hints, those that vote TUV do it out of blind sectarian hatred. Looks like the muddle of sectarianism versus pragmatism has been very much uncovered here. I wonder which one will win? If its something else (and don’t give me ‘terrorists in govt’ as we all know every significant party is tainted with that!), then please explain? Either Sinn Fein won the GFA, or TUV represents pure bigotry.
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 11:03 AMChris,
It is delusional to think the DUP will “begin legitimising the Irish nationalist identity within their own community.”
This is obsurd.
Also, it should be noted that this was by-election with only a 40% turnout.
The UUP won - yes. But not on their own. They won as a result of a split Unionist vote.
They are celebrating, but about what exactly. They held the seat due to the circumstances of transfers - the joys of PR.
TUV are the ones to celebrate for getting the UUP elected and what exactly have they achieved in their candidature? Nothing.
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 11:04 AMMark,
I was trying to put it more diplomatically than that…
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 11:24 AM“Diplomacy is the art of saying “Nice Doggie!” till you can find a stick.”
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 11:34 AMIvax
Which bit of the election did you miss. The last time out the DUP trounced the UUP 3 seats to one. even with the TUVs in the race the DUP believed they would walk it. Amazingly it has also been missed the UUP were ahead of the DUP before the TUV transfers.
Basically the UUP represent a broader base of the community than the DUPs.
That is something to celebrate
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 11:36 AMIts the simple fact that despite ceasefires, despite decommissioning, despite witnesses, despite support for policing, theres no satisfying the unsatisfiable.
Now, either they’re principled objectors to having people “with a past” in government OR, they’re a motley crew of utterly negative strategy-less individuals temporarily united under a man who only holds any elected office due to his association with those he now rejects.
Can anyone spot the difference between the latter description and a pack of mean minded bigots?
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 11:36 AMMay the good Lord God bless Jim Allister,
For he is a man of true moral decency surrounded by lundys and the rebel irish. This is a man unafraid to stand up to those who aspire to obliterate Ulster and her proud protestant children. For the foam at the mouth of the irish rebel has never been so protruded, the dead eyes of the irish insurgents have never looked so vacant, and the hazard presented by those who wish to sell Ulster down the river has never been so immense.
May the Lord God have mercy on your devoted children? My only hope is that you have granted this mercy in the form of Jim Allister, if this be the case then i humbly thank you merciful one.
God Save Her Most Gracious Queen Elizabeth II.
Posted by on Feb 15, 2008 @ 11:55 AM
