Monday, August 18, 2008
Credit crunch: don’t knock the public sector
Brace yourself for some necessary staring into the entrails of economic forecasting for “these islands,” the smaller island in particular.
“Shoot the doves” is the FT’s message to those who hanker after a relatively quick return to faster growth; inflation is the deadly enemy, with the latest reports forecasting the UK teetering on the brink of recession and prospects for next year “dimming.” Households are £700 a year worse off, with rising food and fuel bills, according to the latest reports.
The Economist’s country briefing for this month adds its authority to a stark appraisal of prospects for the Republic, where recession is already happening.
Economist quotes:
“In the decade up to 2006 residential property prices in Ireland rose more rapidly than in any other developed economy. Strong demand partly explains this: incomes, employment and population all grew robustly. The increase in the supply of new housing was just as phenomenal—the number of annual housing completions in 2006 was almost five times that of the early 1990s, which compares with static output in the euro area and in the UK. However, when supply and demand fundamentals are considered in tandem, the enormous increase in prices was unjustified.
Consequently, the country’s property market is now going sharply into reverse. Prices have been falling for 18 months and excess supply makes further declines all but inevitable. In the event of an even sharper correction than is currently predicted, the main lenders would probably suffer badly. Although Ireland’s banks have been highly profitable over a long period and are thus well capitalised, they are hugely exposed to the domestic property market. The international credit crisis, should it continue, could cause serious financing problems for the banks, adding to concerns about their balance sheets”.
And Northern Ireland? Different emphases, different reports. A fairly chipper view from the Executive, concentrating on the state of the job market and direct investment news, reflecting - I fear rather misleadingly - its narrow “Enterprise” functions and lack of responsibility for the wider economy.
A cheer-leader’s nose is put on the story from Belfast Telegraph. PWC in the Irish Times is a good deal more sober, forecasting growth of 1.25% compared to the official 1.8%. Both are less than half last year’s growth, PWC adds:
“The outlook for household spending growth in Northern Ireland is looking more subdued now than at any time since the early 1990s.”
The latest gloomy economic predictions for Northern Ireland come as one of the UK’s biggest mortgage lenders, the Halifax, revealed that house prices are now falling at their fastest rate in nearly 20 years”.
The mantra for the medium term and long term is I’m sure correct: that NI needs to switch from overdependence on the public sector to high value-added private sector investment and growth. But in the meantime, even with budget cuts, don’t knock the public sector for keeping NI on course.
Brian Walker @ 08:26 AM
I think a long view is always neccesary on issues such as this. The past 30 years have seen a fundamental change in how people view both housing and their own personal finances, and we have begun to take certain things for granted in a very short space of time.
The furious growth in housing and prices had to come to an end, as the Economist has said, when considering basic supply and demand factors. I also contend that a lot of what we are currently experiencing is a direct end result of the policies of the Thatcher government in the 1970’s which liberalised the financial services and allowed public sector houses to be purchased by tenants. We are thus entering into unchartered waters, with no road map or previous experince as to how this will resolve.
The fact that the UK personal debt remains at an unprecendented high is a very significant factor. This particular hen was going to roost at some point, and is doing so now with a vengance. Repossessions of houses and individual bankruptcies are starting to approach 1990 levels again, indicating a serious problem with the maintenance of the private housing market.
I hate to be totally pessimistic about this, but I dont think we will be returning to the days of spend and equity release for many years to come, if ever again.
Posted by on Aug 18, 2008 @ 10:27 AMEconomists must be the most useless bunch of feckers on the planet - the banks may as well boot them out and get in a few fortunetellers in their place.
Posted by on Aug 18, 2008 @ 10:35 AMI always wondered where the money was coming from in the North to pay for the houses and flats which were being constructed at such a ferocious pace over the last few years. Any time I was in the North it seemed most of the building work was residential, thus short term employment opportunties.
Having walked around Belfast city centre for the first time in several years a few days ago I was quite taken aback by how run down and depressed it all looked. It seemed there were quite a few shops empty and there was a real lack of spirit. However, that may be down to the holiday season.
The Victoria Centre seemed to have seriously overpriced shops for Belfast and the city gave the definite impression that there is not much money about.
Posted by on Aug 18, 2008 @ 10:49 AMWell, there is bugger all we can do about it since we have surrendered sovereignty over our monetary policy and currency to the European Central Bank by joining the Eurozone in 1999. We are at the mercy of the one-size-fits-all macroeconomics, determined by what is happening in the economy of Germany rather than by the requirements of our economy.
This is why house prices increased dramatically since 2000 and household debt more than doubled between 2003 and 2007: interests were set by the European Central Bank at 2% were the actual requirements of the Irish economy was for interests rates to be set at 6% under the Taylor rule (4 points above what they were set at). So we got record house building, annual credit growth running at 25%, more than doubling of house prices, and 5.5% average inflation in the service sector, etc.
Now, thanks to dumping the punt, we have to live with the effects of unjustifiably cheap credit and to live with it without the ability to do anything on a macroeconomic level to correct it.
Posted by on Aug 18, 2008 @ 11:02 AM“The mantra for the medium term and long term is I’m sure correct: that NI needs to switch from overdependence on the public sector to high value-added private sector investment and growth. But in the meantime, even with budget cuts, don’t knock the public sector for keeping NI on course.”
Thanks Brian. This is a view I have been espousing for some time, in the face of considerable opposition from some people in here, who think that the public sector should all be sacked anyway.
Turns out they may be the buffer we need right now. Expect usual glib comments from those who think the state should be run by the private sector and that this is all the public sector are good for.
Posted by on Aug 18, 2008 @ 11:13 AMDave ,’
Well, there is bugger all we can do about it since we have surrendered sovereignty over our monetary policy and currency to the European Central Bank by joining the Eurozone in 1999.’
Nonsense . The USA , New Zealand , and Australia are not in the EU and the USA has an even worse credit crunch than the EU . Now even ‘prime mortgage’ holders are being ‘evicted ’ for not being able to pay their mortgages in the USA . Unlike the EU countries such as the UK and Ireland ‘mortgage ’ defaulters in the USA are out the door after three months so EU citizens have more ‘rights’ in this respect than their USA ‘equivalents ’ which is why the USA’s economy is hurting a lot more than the EU’s . In addition there is the little known fact that only one third of US employees ‘qualify’ for unemployment benefit if they lose their jobs.
‘and to live with it without the ability to do anything on a macroeconomic level to correct it.’
So we’re like the USA then . Bernanke the USA’s Federal Reserve Board Chairman has been ‘twiddling’ his thumbs for months not knowing whether to increase or reduce interest rates as he watches simultaneously the effects of a falling dollar , rising inflation , billions going into a hole in the ground in Iraq , two million forclosures , property prices still dropping and increased political instability in the Middle East with Mr Busharraf being forced to seek asylum in Saudi Arabia ?
The roots of the present crisis go all the way back to Messrs Thatcher in the early 80’s and Nixon in the 1970’s as she bolted for a services economy and deregulation of banks , building societies and as Tricky Dicky took his eye off the Wall St casino merchants and allowed the ‘gangsters’ to write their own meal ticket with little oversight . Under Reagan , Clinton and the Bushes it just got steadily worse . The UK and Ireland to a lesser extent followed suit after all we are closer in ‘culture’ to the USA and the UK than to the EU countries ?
Well perhaps but obviouly not when it comes to electing heads of State . I have yet to see any contenders for British Prime Minister , German Chancellor , French President or Irish Taoiseach have to take part in a tv ‘Christian values trial ’ chaired by the pastor/business CEO of a mega church :(The present crisis has been triggered initially by insufficient government control over the various gangs of thieves and looters in the financial services sector on both sides of the Atlantic plus the the ’ greed ’ of residential property owners who ‘believed ’ the lie that ‘everybody’ can get rich buy buying houses .
A classic case of bad money driving out good and a victory of ‘bad ’ capitalism over ‘good’ capitalism .
BW , Miss Fitz and Raven are correct . In the circumstances in which NI now finds itself the last thing they need to do is ‘dump on ’ the public sector’ . Anybody who understands NI would know that if government went for the latter the sound of gunfire would not be too far behind .
Unlike Americans who seem to allow themselves to be robbed ‘blind ’ by the large corporations, banks , insurance companies, oil barons, and war mongers until they no longer can tell Monday from Friday -the British , Irish, French ,Germans etc are more likely to take to the streets in defence of their rights.
Corporate America through it’s control over the ‘radio waves’ may convine many US voters that God will save them from perdition . Europeans apart from a few in the North East of Ireland won’t buy into that sucker’s fable !
Posted by on Aug 18, 2008 @ 12:24 PMI will take this shameless opportunity to promote the course I teach with the Open University.
Its called ‘You and Your Money: Personal Finance in Context.’ For anyone with an interest in finding out more about the present situation, it is an excellent course at Level 1, and provides an invaluable guide in navigating the present crisis. It looks at both the social and economic context of money and finance, and covers all aspects of financial services and planning.
The Course code is DB123, and you can get there from this link: http://www.open.ac.uk/courses/tasters/db123/
Posted by on Aug 18, 2008 @ 12:52 PMmissfitz ,
‘I will take this shameless opportunity to promote the course I teach with the Open University.’
LOL - We can all do with more ‘shamelessness’ :)
Let us all now join hands and sing :) ‘After the horse has bolted after the ’ to the tune of after the ball has ended :).
Seriously this kind of education should be ‘introduced ’ also as part of second level education at least to a degree (no educational pun intended ). .
By the time young people get to college and or their first real ‘jobs’ their spending profile , excess drinking , smoking and other money burning habits are already largely formed I would think ?.
I once did an Excel Spreadsheet on how much money a twenty a day smoker burns his/her way through from the age of 18 to 65 . Using just basic arithmetic plus compound interest any teacher could ‘prove’ to any class of even the dimmest that setting fire to several hundred thousand pound/euros or dollars is not a wise ‘investment ‘. The same exercise could be done for the ’ 20 pints a week fraternity .
Thanks again miss fitz and I hope your ‘shameless’ promotion achieves the results it deserves :)
Posted by on Aug 18, 2008 @ 01:15 PMI don’t know hoe many people know, but in ‘real life’ I do a little money and debt advice, as well as administer a benevolent fund. I’ve been doing it for almost 10 years now, so I guess when it comes to those difficulties on a personal level I would be very much in tune with the situation.
I could not agree more about the issue of education, particularly at schools level. I deal with many younger workers who find that a wage of £800 per month is the largest sum of money they could have dreamty of, then promptly go out and spend about £1500 a month on credit.
The DB123 was developed alongside the FSA several years ago, and has proved to be one the fastest growing courses ever offered by the OU. It was heavily promoted in GB, but not in Northern Ireland. However, we are about to launch a promotion campaign at the end of the month to rectify that!!
But getting back to the original post, one of the most significant complications of this ‘new money’ since the 1970’s was the complete lack of awareness on how it should be handled. There is definitely an argument about horses and stable doors, but I guess one has to say better late than never.
Posted by on Aug 18, 2008 @ 01:36 PMTotally agree Sammy, I have been saying this for years. Economists, bankers, traders etc are self serving bunch of tea leaf readers. They are bookies who know as much about future economics as you and me but arrogantly lecture the rest of us about it; they are all bullshitters out to make a quick buck and screw the rest of us in the process. Look at the way they have fecked up the housing market while the fat City trolls order £10000 bottles of wine in their private clubs and get rich on ordinary peoples misery. Doing the lotto has the same odds as knowing what’s going to happen down the line financially. They bang on about slashing the public sector to hide and cover their own failings. Any time I see or hear one of these corpulant smug sanctimonious patronising gits tell us we will all have to tighten our belts I feel the urge to put my size 10 boot through the TV. Along with weather forecasters I would send them all to live on Rockall where they can tell each other their crap predictions ‘til the cows, or puffins, come home.
Posted by on Aug 18, 2008 @ 02:04 PMLURIG,
I’m not too bad with weather forecasters - as they are a miserable bunch as a rule and dont really get on my nerves. But psychologists are the other annoying feckers - they spend most of their time arguing between each other about their latest funny theories instead of getting on with some proper science and when they are not jibber jabbering about some aspect of life they know absolutely nothing about they are practicing their withcraft on some unsuspecting fool and often charging them an arm and a leg for the privliege.
Posted by on Aug 18, 2008 @ 02:16 PMBut in the meantime, even with budget cuts, don’t knock the public sector for keeping NI on course.
It will be ironic if NI’s much-derided public sector economy proves more resilient than its free-market counterparts over the next few years.
Posted by on Aug 18, 2008 @ 02:22 PMGreenflag, it’s far from “nonsense.” Our interests rates should have been at 6% under the Taylor Rule at a time when they were set at 2%. We could not set our interest rates at the correct rate because we had surrendered control of our monetary policy to the EU. Ergo, we had people borrowing huge sums of money to buy houses at mortgage rates as low 2% when a proper interest rate would have been three times higher, thereby discouraging them from borrowing money that they could not actually afford to repay and also discouraging them from pushing up the value of property to levels that would result in negative equity. We surrendered control to the EU and we are now paying the price for being unable to exercise sovereignty over our own monetary policies. This has nothing to do with America: it entirely the result of surrendered sovereignty.
Posted by on Aug 18, 2008 @ 02:39 PM‘Free market??????’
It’s as about as free as an ordinary Shinner at a Connolly House controlled Ard Fheis. These greedy immoral right wing capitalist b*****ds play with peoples lives and jobs like moves on a Monopoly board (NO Not Sinn Fein….but then again). There is nothing free about Western multi-nationals and international conglomerates moving jobs to sweat shop & child labour economies so that their profits, investments and share dividends increase. Ask the workers at the chocolate factories in England whose jobs are being moved abroad so that some of these Investment Groups can save a few pound in wages. The media are as much to blame because they hang on every word of economists, bankers and the CBI like lovestruck teenagers. Instead of grilling these Gordon Gekko’s about why they have f**ked up the economy and housing market INSTEAD they let them turn the tables and say ‘....well the public will have to pay for this’ as usual. Remember when the business world scaremongered about the minimum wage telling us it would threaten 1000’s of jobs. Well it DIDN’T but still the private sector was given free reign to spout their usual Dickensian bull. Some of these tax dodging crooks are cold, ruthless, sinister fiends who should be in a court for their crimes and not paying their way like the rest of us. Roll on the revolution.
Posted by on Aug 18, 2008 @ 03:05 PMit entirely the result of surrendered sovereignty
In the interests of honest debate, it should be pointed out that a government has more powers at its disposal than just setting interest rates.
Posted by on Aug 18, 2008 @ 03:08 PMLURIG & Sammy, I don’t know what ‘economists’ you’re referring to here, I personally haven’t come across many who confidently foretell the future in the way that you seem to object to so strongly. And in reality (rather than in your rather lurid imaginings of the ‘city’ etc) most credible economists in academia or the press were sounding concerned about the economic imbalances, high indebtedness, loose lending, house price bubbles etc etc for years before it all came to a head last summer.
Posted by on Aug 18, 2008 @ 03:17 PMLafcadio
the banks commercial and central are stuffed full of economists and look at the mess they are in with lending and dodgy financial intruments. They are guilty of after-the-eventery of the highest order.
The engineeers advising a building company would be booted out if we woke up one morning and all their bridges had fallen down.
As the old chestnut goes economists have predicted 5 out of the last 2 recessions.
Posted by on Aug 18, 2008 @ 03:37 PMDave ,
When financial ‘regulations ’ or should I say the lack of them allowed people to buy houses with no desposit and sometimes evven 110% mortgages wheter the interest rate was 2% or 6% would hardly have mattered . What is clear from this crisis is that the ‘financial services sector ’ on both sides of both the larger and smaller ponds were let loose by the Governments years ago and what we have seen happen was virtually inevitable . The ‘politicians’ had the wool pulled over their eyes by the ‘promises ’ of the voodoo financiers . Not for the first time and probably not for the last and to be fair some of wool pulling was done with the victim not completely unaware of what was happening but resistancce was subdued by the usual sweetener - contributions to a re-election fund etc etc ! For individual sucker consumers too functionnally illiterate to read the ten pages of small print well they ended up being suckered by the ARM (Adjustable Rate Mortgages ) and a LEG (Let Equity Grow ) merchants .
IWSMNWDI ,
While I share to an extent your comparison of economist forecasting abilities to those of the fortune telling fraternity, I would remind you that a former USA President now deceased, much admired by American voters, was apparently influenced in his pursuit of foreign policy objectives by his Astrological Advisor :( (some still maintain those policies were a success :)?
Lurig ,
Before you throw out the baby with the bathwater remember it was the elected representatives of the ‘people’ who chose to believe that the bankers and corporate moguls were so imbibed with ethical codes of behaviour, that they would never behave like the proverbial 18 year old teenager let loose on the town with the car keys, a hot little number to keep him company and several bottles of whiskey plus other unmentionable excitatory stimulants and has to be retrieved from the morgue or jail next morning .!
Just to add perspective whereas millions will suffer in the present downturn we are unlikely to see the benefits of the Russian revolution again - Nobody I know is looking forward to 60 million dead and another Iron Curtain .
All that’s needed is major reform in some financial services sector practices throughout the Anglosphere world .
We need to reverse from ‘bad capitalism ’ to good capitalism . And we need more people to attend courses like the one MISS FITZ has been shamelessly promoting here on slugger - something I would never have the cheek to do :)
Posted by on Aug 18, 2008 @ 04:01 PM‘As the old chestnut goes economists have predicted 5 out of the last 2 recessions. ‘
I thought it was 8 out of 3 :)?
Posted by on Aug 18, 2008 @ 04:03 PM“The mantra for the medium term and long term is I’m sure correct: that NI needs to switch from overdependence on the public sector to high value-added private sector investment and growth.”
This is the problem Peter Robinson has; he will have to, I believe, streamline middle-management pay and chip that back into lower grades in order to cut fat off management who are getting too much pay in disproportion to the private sector. This must disincentivise re-skilling towards new market technologies and services, highly likely too that such civil servants do hold or once held a fairly attractive degree in something but are happy plodding along.
Robinson and McGuinness need to realise though that the NI economy is bloated with over-paid bureaucrats, while all the same greatly experienced both in terms of efficieny and qualifications, are still nonetheless too blunt for sharp innovative private sector management and thinking. This isn’t just a NI problem, Britain too is the same re GDP per hour worked, however, I imagine, without having figures at hand, that on a regional basis NI is very sluggish.
I have no idea how under the banner of unionism and indeed nationalism the fundamental changes can be made; let alone having a serious and stark debate on switching skills and attracting new business, which could bolster private sector growth. Some pain is needed however across the board I imagine public sector workers are not that keen on being told what to do by the DUP and even less SF, given that party’s lack of experience in writing up good economic policy. Match that with the dry non-visionary business language verging on ignorance coupled with Biblical approaches to certain things and the whole situation of needy reform seems doomed to fail from the outset!
You can see why the Republic doesn’t want to go near NI in terms of welcoming it to the fold as it has had to reconfigure its own workforce to match its market needs and somehow I fear NI would need new training across the board to adapt to a Euro-led economy.
Posted by on Aug 18, 2008 @ 06:56 PMDC,
‘I have no idea how under the banner of unionism and indeed nationalism the fundamental changes can be made; ‘
Neither do I :( I would not however rely on heavenly intervention . The track record is not good . Historically in societies under stress there has been a turning to God . In 16th century Spain they turned to ultra catholicism - the Inquisition , following mass conversions of Jews and the expulsion of the Moors . BY the 17th century Spain was no longer a ‘world contender ’ but had been reduced to a backwater. In the 17th century the Dutch took over. The Calvinists tried to re instate the rule of God and deport German catholics and Jews and keep Dutch catholics out of political power - By the 18th century the Netherlands was in decline . In the heyday of Empire Victorian Britain was about ‘morality’ . While the poorer English died of dysentery in the slums the wealthy preached salvation and the poverty of the people was blamed on their ‘moral ’ failings . Likewiswe the ‘famine ’ Irish were being punished by God for having the temerity to hold on to the wrong religion . The same ‘unreason’ at work then as now . After the ‘bankrupting ’ experience of WW1 -Britain was on it’s way out as the leading world power .
Today in the USA we see the power of the born agains nutters ,as they try ‘explain ’ Americas decline by pointing the finger at those who do not follow the ‘Bible ‘. There is a huge and growing ‘knowledge ’ gap between mainstream Protestants (Episcopalians , Methodists ,Presbyterians (not the independents), Catholics , Lutherans , Jews , and secular humanists /agnostics on the one hand, and the Pentecostalist , Born Agains, Assemblies of God , Rapturists , Southern Baptist etc on the other .
Jesusland has it’s eyes fixed via the Republicans not on reincarnating Dixie but on evangelising the entire USA and turning into a Western equivalent of Iran i.e a theocracy .
And as with all the previous historical examples that ‘s a signal and precursor to war and eventual national or imperial decline . Along the way in all the above examples the ‘moneymen’ led the way at the end through the uber financialising of their societies. The financial services have been to the fore in piling wood on the pyre of relative decline .
Why should NI be any different? The example is already there from the days of Roaring Hanna -to all manner of ultra religious ‘politicians and their followers today . Messrs Robinson and Storey are only the tip of a very large support group who await the end of days and the coming of the Lord very soon. Why worry ? Why not leave it to Jesus coming soon to a battlefield near you called Armageddon :(
Of course unlike the above mentioned societies NI has a ’ sugar daddy’ to help take away the pain . Just as well friends -just as well -for now anyway !
Posted by on Aug 18, 2008 @ 08:20 PMThe trouble with the public sector is not simply the numbers (bad enough) but the fact that they are paid so much relatively.
Why assume the additional economic risk associated with private sector employment when you’ll be rewarded less?
It’s imperative that public sector pay in NI falls relative to the private sector but can you envisage any party at Stormont having the conviction or the courage to bring this about.Posted by on Aug 18, 2008 @ 08:37 PMOh and to bring the thread back on course a bit, it’s just nonsense to suggest that the public sector is keeping NI on course.
The only reason we have it is because somebody else is paying for it.
I’ts a kind of lon-term indoor relief scheme provided by Westminster.Posted by on Aug 18, 2008 @ 09:00 PMGreenFlag,
5/2 or 8/3 - that the trouble with Economists they cant even agree on things after the event.
re. Non Iron house prices. It is always amusing when they (e.g. the BBC ) discuss Non Iron house prices in a UK context and dont even mention the ROI which they seem to have far more in common with. It would be interesting to know how much speculative money from ROI crossed the border in the last 5 years - particulalry in border areas.
Posted by on Aug 18, 2008 @ 09:09 PMTotally agree about the ‘relatively’ aspect. But it is not even the pay but product and produce. I mean, great as it is that civil servants can write great and manage strategic implementation et al, but private sector is about rising with the tide of market-based demands and supply.
In my opinion what’s best is greater flexibility in contracts, legislation to remove ultimate lifelong contracts, so that in areas of poor performance re workplace approaches and attitudes people can be let go; it should also be easier for staff to leave the Civil Service to go to value-added private sector work and to encourage that there should be a sunset clause that allows a return point to the cushy CS if it doesn’t work out in the priv sector. There should be a serious re-think as to performance management across the Civil Service which is line-manager-centric, thus open to teacher’s pet syndrome or in contrast pet hate.
The whole agency side of the Civil Service needs overhauled with new job titles that match both the actual job function and the varying levels of pressure that comes from client contact and case volumes. Pay scales adjusted accordingly.
It should be easier for people to resign whether it is public or private so that people are not trapped to work a month and can move but also if people resign over working practices it should spur on employers to improve or face being caught unpleasantly short, with its own set of consequences. And then there is the whole issue of under spend in the civil service where it is tantamount to a criminal offence to be caught with that. In my view perhaps accounts management should be compartmentalised maybe over to a private-sector approach where finances are spent with integrity and underspends returned. In addition, public sector workers should always be fluid so that when, as it does, work bottoms out the staff can be sent to sectors where work is being created by new policy or spends. Displacement as per water and channelisation, staffing should be flexible.
As for SF, Gerry Adams was found out last 07, he was embarrassing, especially when you watch his performance again as I have done in the cold light of repeats in 08. I don’t think he recovered from that, for example he was quoted as saying that other parties wanted to reduce taxes yet increase spend and he couldn’t figure out how that was possible! Well of course, it depends on who and what you’re taxing and in the level across a particular band, so that more productivity and indeed a lesser level of taxation can ultimately bring in more monies in the end.
The DUP are hamstrung over cultural and religious problems at the moment making what should be the easiest tasks difficult, not to mention the fact that Robinson is negative and uncharismatic making unpopular economic reforms all the more difficult coupled with his poor working relationships with SF/nationalists.
There has been 30 years of wasting time and lives but the blow back now is likely to be serious, old Paisley lasted one year; after watching Adams last year I think there are some real uncomfortable truths needing faced up to, not down. Ireland has moved on so much that bizarrely Northern Ireland with its large socialist public sector and slow sectarian politics may actually be more his style. The Republic may now be beyond his own world view, that I think is something he hasn’t come to terms with, or perhaps he is stunned into silent denial. Life has moved on in Ireland especially so over the last 20 years that I wonder if it is unrecognisable and is beyong the appeal of SF in that it is impossible to instill its own political values. The northern political outlook crumbled in 07, whether it can be put back again on terms acceptable to McGuinness-Adams’ longstanding political views remains to be seen.
Posted by on Aug 18, 2008 @ 09:23 PM
