Thursday, February 14, 2008
By-election background
While we wait for the by-election result from Dromore, where the TUV have put forward a candidate to challenge the DUP, the BBC’s Mark Devenport has picked out the last local election figures from 2005 via Nic Whyte’s invaluable Ark.
Thanks to Nic Whyte’s site, here is the last Dromore result from 2005.
First Count:
Tyrone Howe, (UUP) 1304
Norah Beare, (DUP) 1292
Paul Rankin, (DUP) 870
David Herron, (DUP) 838
Cassie McDermott, (SDLP) 712
William Martin, (UUP) 580
Francis Branniff, (SF) 429Votes by Party:
DUP: 3,000 (49.8%), 3 seats
UUP:1,1841,884 (31.3%), 1 seat
SDLP: 712 (11.8%), 1 seat
SF: 429 (7.1%)Electorate: 9,542; seats: 5; votes cast: 6,119; spoilt votes: 94 (1.5%);
valid votes: 6,025 (98.5%); quota: 1,005
And from earlier in the campaign, the candidates this time
Pete Baker @ 10:19 AM
Think the UUP 2005 total should read 1884 not 1184. Apparently turnout about 38% (slightly higher than average for a council by-election.
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 10:37 AMill try and get in thier first,
i can see the DUP taking the seat, i think that much is clear, but i think the TUV will take a quite a few votes, just enough for them to claim voctory, and enough for the DUP to claim they are not relavent,
the UUP will find themselves that they will get lot of transfers, and wont be totally wiped out,
on the Nationalist, given the location and the strenght of the campiagn put in by the SDLP, i believe they will SF hands down, with maybe more of a vote than last time,i believe the SDLP Youth were campigning last nite!
where was the Gerry Juniors?
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 10:40 AMYou’re right, Mark.
Although the percentages are correct, the original figure is wrong.
I’ve corrected it here, Nic will, no doubt, update himself.
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 10:43 AMLooks like the DUP has been hit by TUV:
Provisional tallies from inside the count:
DUP 1100
UUP 800
TUV 700
All 300
SDLP 250
SF 250
Green 100
Porlock
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 11:03 AMOfficial Result
DUP 1069
UUP 912
TUV 739
All 357
SF 350
SDLP 255
Green 59
UUP might actually hold!!!!
Porlock
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 11:13 AMCan false teeth be gnashed?
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 11:23 AMDisaster for DUP. TUVs have taken 33% of their vote and they won’t get elected without TUV transfers.
The UUP should be well pleased their vote though down has held up relatively well in a bye-election they didn’t expect to win.
chairman Jim will be hard to listen to!
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 11:24 AMSDLP and Green eliminated
DUP 1074
UUP 937
TUV 742
SF 507
ALL 479
Now into third count with transfer of Alliance
Porlock
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 11:32 AMRed branch,
Please use a different e-mail!
People will think your me! lmaoPosted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 11:33 AMexit chuckle brother snr stage left…
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 11:34 AMThat has to be the highest transfer rate I’ve ever seen from the SDLP to SF - circa 60%. Along with being well ahead of them in 1st preferences, I’m sure SF are very statisfied with how their minor part in this election turned out. And we get to see the transfer rate from APNI to SF for a change too next.
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 11:39 AMAPNI will put UUP in front - where did TUV transfers go?
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 11:40 AMCuchulainn,
Where are the SDLP voters?????? Looks like you can fool some of the people some of the time but only yourself all of the time. ‘location and strenght of camapign’ vs Dessie Ward (who seems to run rings around all of the Unionist councillors on Banbridge). Interesting that so few SDLP votes transfered to SF.
This will now only get really inte4resting when we see where TUV votes transfer
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 11:41 AMlol, meh their u are, maybe i can blame it on a bad turn out! yea i think i will! lol
disaster for the SDLP vote, expected a lot better form the effort they put in, interesting to see the party response
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 11:44 AMIs this more proof that Robinson is not such a great strategist afterall?
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 11:47 AMBTW the current FM’s favourite nationalist isn’t doing him any favours either.
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 11:50 AMSomeone please call Turgon and wake him up.
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 11:50 AMpith
maybe. Although Robinson doesn’t swan around his constituency with Irish PM waxing lyrical about the “North of Ireland”. Nor does he give the impression of political footsie being played with SF. If the DUP gain this seat then the TUVs’ stellar performance will hasten Robinsons’ elevation to the top job. Too cynical to suggest this is exactly what was hoped for?
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 11:57 AMhttp://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/Dromore-byelection-Traditional-Unionist-Voice.3773886.jp
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 12:00 PMAlliance transfers done
DUP 1127
UUP 1119
TUV 801
SF 567
SF now eliminated
Porlock
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 12:03 PMEverything boils down to TUV transfers
I think if this were an ordinary council election TUV would win a seat.
I await the result eagerly
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 12:16 PMSlight typo on Alliance transfer figures:
DUP 1074
UUP 1119
TUV 801
SF 567
LATEST: After SF transfers:
DUP 1178
UUP 1194
TUV 828
TUV now eliminated
Porlock
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 12:19 PMPorlock,
Your ‘official figures’ above puts the SDLP on 255, while the Newsletter is saying that they got 290. The latter figure is credible, given the transfers (all but 2 votes!?), and the seemingly high proportion of those transfers going to SF.
Could you confirm whether you or the Newsletter is correct?
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 12:20 PMHorseman,
Newsletter figure is correct.
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 12:27 PM“If the DUP gain this seat then the TUVs’ stellar performance will hasten Robinsons’ elevation to the top job.”
Sounds as if the First Minister should be expecting a visit from the men in grey suits. Do they still bring a bottle of whiskey and a pearl handled revolver? Probably more high tech nowadays.
Posted by on Feb 14, 2008 @ 12:31 PM
