Wednesday, August 27, 2008
“but they have nobody to blame but themselves..”
In the NewsLetter, Liam Clarke notes the irony of the venue for Sinn Féin TD Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin’s threat to take the ball away
Crossan’s commemoration was an ironic venue to choose for a call for the return of control of security powers to Stormont but O Caolain didn’t stop at that. “If we are forced to conclude that change will not be forthcoming from the Executive, then we will have no option but to pull out our Ministers and seek to put pressure where responsibility ultimately lies, which is on the British Government in London,” he went on.
It is a sign of how far republicans have come when they are now threatening to pull down a local Irish administration with a cross-border dimension in the hope that the British government will fight their corner for them. Sinn Fein’s position is unenviable, but they have nobody to blame but themselves.
And, for the benefit of those still not paying attention, he spells it out again
It is Sinn Fein, and not any other party or group, which put itself in this position. It has made a shibboleth out of the devolution of policing and justice. It has become a matter of pride, and the leadership has so oversold it to their membership, that they will lose face if they can’t deliver.
The upshot is that the DUP are now in a strong position and, behind the bluster, Sinn Fein has been giving ground in an effort to move things along. They have caved in on their demand for two separate ministries and have conceded that, for the foreseeable future, Sinn Fein will not hold the portfolio. There will never be a better moment for unionists to ignore the verbals and cut a deal with them.
Pete Baker @ 10:21 AM
Stick it out Gerry, Santa’s coming soon.
Posted by on Aug 27, 2008 @ 11:04 AMThere will never be a better moment for unionists to ignore the verbals and cut a deal with them.
Sure. But currently the DUP are refusing to cut any deal. Passing up the best moment EVAR is hardly a good diea, no?
Posted by on Aug 27, 2008 @ 11:05 AMKensei
IRA/sinn Fein never cut any deal on decommissioning until the Americans forced them. IRA/Sinn Fein in their generosity decided not to shoot the good people of N.Ireland, but hold them hostage with their guns.
Give me one good reason why the Unionists wouldn’t think it’s payback time?
Posted by on Aug 27, 2008 @ 11:43 AMIts good to see some people believe this drivel
Posted by on Aug 27, 2008 @ 12:08 PM“It has become a matter of pride, and the leadership has so oversold it to their membership”
Sinn Fein have been demonstrating for some time an alarming over-estimation of their own abilities, that’s for sure.
But who would have thought that any politician, party or institution demanding local involvement in policing and justice, a cornerstone of democracy, could “oversell” the concept. Is it not that important?
It certainly seems to be a principle currently being strongly sold to the people of Iraq, Georgia and Afghanistan by various world leaders, governments and the UN etc.
Posted by on Aug 27, 2008 @ 12:20 PMb-JR
Interesting attempt to reframe the discussion.
It wasn’t the concept that the Sinn Féin leadership oversold to their membership, it was what they claimed to have secured at St Andrews.
But you knew that already.
Posted by on Aug 27, 2008 @ 12:56 PMUMH
Give me one good reason why the Unionists wouldn’t think it’s payback time?
That wasn’t my point. My point was—if there is never going to be a better time to cut a deal, then not cutting a deal at this point is, by definition, a mistake.
Posted by on Aug 27, 2008 @ 01:05 PMPete,
SF/IRA have gotten themselves in an almighty mess regarding this issue. Your quite right, they knew the had no real agreement on policing and justice dates with the DUP. They knew this but now are threatening to bring down the executive over the issue and their impatience. They made promises to their electorate that they knew they couldnt keep unless there was a massive (enormous infact) weakness shown from the DUP.
I far from agree with alot of the DUP regarding many things this last while, but even the DUP are not stupid enough to sign their own death warrants and agree to SF/IRA demands regarding a thing as vital as policing and justice
I am actually rather sure now that the executive will fall as I dont see any way out of this current stalemate.
One of the two main parties would need to fail massively and take an enormous hit if they backed down to the other.
election time is looming
Posted by on Aug 27, 2008 @ 01:07 PMLook at this from a DUP perspective.
If they do a deal to let SF off the hook they face significant electoral risks, not least looking like the successors of Trimble.
If they don’t do a deal then SF either
(i) withdraw the threat to collapse the Executive - in which case SF look weak and the DUP revel in their strength at having beaten them down
(ii) collapse the Executive in which case the DUPs shout that its all Republicans fault. They will also calculate that this will have caused immense damage to the SF leadership who will be seen to have misled their own people. The SDLP will undoubtedly make hay and the DUP will face a more fragmented nationalism in the next round of negotiations.
So it heads i win and tails I win for the DUP. Now can anyone tell me, just why would they help SF out?
I not advocating this as a principled position. I just see it as part of the analysis and the only solution lies in some major concessions by SF on other issues. But even that is hard to see given the hardline positions taken by the DUP in recent days.
Posted by on Aug 27, 2008 @ 01:30 PMThe DUP have been simply awful since they agreed to share power with SF.
They were so impatient to ‘show who was in charge’ that they shot everything SF wanted down. In fact they went 5-0 up, so to speak! That would be great if this was a game of football but it is not.
What being 5-0 up means in politics is that the next ‘victory’ will inevitably belong to SF. Why? Because there is nothing else for the DUP to shoot down - they either stick to their position and refuse to share power or they join in in a bit of quid pro quo and agree to some SF demands. That is not a great position for them to be in with wee Jim looking over their shoulder.
As a SF supporter I genuinely want to see power sharing work but only on the basis of equality. I am quite happy for the current charade to come tumbling down. That will trigger an election which I would welcome.
So Liam Clarke can argue this point until he is red white and blue in the face - I am very happy with the stance being taken and trust that SF will see this through to whatever outcome is necessary.
Posted by on Aug 27, 2008 @ 01:46 PMLooks like a win-win situation for the DUP.
If Sinn Fein bend the knee after this hissy fit and go back into the Executive without an agreement to devolve P&J;then Robinson can point to Republican mopery to reassure his right wing he isn’t weak.
If the Shinners collapse the Executive then the blame will fall on their heads, and lacking Blair’s missionary zeal on Ulster and the need for DUP support in the Commons you won’t rushing to help SF out.
And with Cameron’s orange voting record and a Tory alliance with the UUP, don’t be expecting a future government to be any friendlier. The future’s bright, the future’s orange :o)
Posted by on Aug 27, 2008 @ 02:27 PM*Gordon Brown rushing to help SF out.
Posted by on Aug 27, 2008 @ 02:28 PMthe last thing sinn fein would want right now is another election with the disater of the last 26 county one still fresh in memories. dissatisfaction with sinn fein on the ground is a real phenomenon with a glaring gulf between leadership affluence and base poverty becomming more apparant.
an election campaign now would be nothing more than a sectarian shouting match, rallying the troops on each side with sweet f all to offer the future.
on the evidence before us sinn fein need to get over the fact they were outmanoeuvred by the dup in the negotiations at st. andrews and lord gortahork is not as infallible as the party faithful believe.Posted by on Aug 27, 2008 @ 02:47 PMI’d like to suggest that Mick (where has he gone to anyway?) enable a Slugger filter on the phraze ”The future’s bright, the future’s orange :o)
” so that it never appear anymore.Many thanks!
Posted by on Aug 27, 2008 @ 02:49 PMI think the orange phone reciption is getting better though so why not celebrate it? ;)
Posted by on Aug 27, 2008 @ 02:52 PMI think the orange phone reception is getting better though so why not celebrate it? ;)
Posted by on Aug 27, 2008 @ 02:52 PMYou can’t filter the future Nomad. Time for Nationalists to settle down and realise the best they can aspire to is being a junior servant of the Crown like Martin McGuinness :o)
Posted by on Aug 27, 2008 @ 02:53 PMohhhhhh
your being very controversial here Richard :D
dont let marty hear you! ;)
Posted by on Aug 27, 2008 @ 03:00 PMRichard - as long as you settle down and realise that unionists can’t spend a penny or make a single decision about their beloved Ulster without the say so of the former Chief of staff of the IRA.
Posted by on Aug 27, 2008 @ 03:07 PMWest belfast,
you are quite correct of course
but I would suggest you should be aiming your “settle down” comments at the SF/IRA leadership.
They are getting all excited about the policing and justice issue and making threats left right and centre because they know they misled their electorate and members by promising something they knew wasnt agreed to.
They and the SF/IRA support need to realise that policing and justice will not be being transfered anytime soon. Indeed with their latest outbursts I would say it will be even longer now before they get their grubby, blood stained hands on the powers of policing and justice
Posted by on Aug 27, 2008 @ 03:22 PMPete,
In relation to the DUP’s position - I asked you this very simple question last night on another “SF have got it badly wrong thread”
I’ll give it another go.
Do you accept the DUP are out step with the 2 Governments on the issue of the Transfer of Police and Justice?
Posted by on Aug 27, 2008 @ 03:26 PMDo you accept the DUP are out step with the 2 Governments on the issue of the Transfer of Police and Justice? IWSMWDI
So what?
Posted by on Aug 27, 2008 @ 03:35 PMWest Belfast,
Ministerial accountability doesn’t bother me one little bit. It’s not like Poots had any grand plans to blow the entire DECAL budget on Orangefest anyway.
On the other hand a Unionist veto has been exercised on the Irish Language Act, Policing and Justice and the Bobby shrine.
All in all, a rather agreeable outcome wouldn’t you agree?
Posted by on Aug 27, 2008 @ 03:50 PMSammy, so SF supporting the British government’s role in Irish affairs and enjoying the support of the British government is good news for those who those who are supposed to be opposed to the British government’s role in Irish affairs? As Liam Clarke said, “It is a sign of how far republicans have come...”
It’s odd that Clarke puts an emphasis on SF’s ‘overselling’ of the importance of devolution of P and J to their membership as the cause of the current problem rather than lying to that membership about a deal being agreed. I suspect he is right, though: I doubt it matters much to the membership if SF lied to them. It matters more that a promised ‘victory’ wasn’t secured.
Posted by on Aug 27, 2008 @ 03:56 PMTo (please God) stop Sammy from his single transferable posting - the DUP are *not* out of step with HMG (the only government that ultimately matters), nor even the Republic’s government. Unless the position of one or both governments is that, Policing & Justice should be transferred (ie devolution of these powers should be imposed upon NI politicians) without prior local agreement (as previously determined it should be) but solely because one local party (SF) are demanding that it should be. Is that the position of either or both governments? And to save myself the boredom of having to drone on Sammy-style, I’ll not merely ask the question, I’ll supply the answer to my question: no, that’s not the position of the British government, nor even that of the Republic’s. Their position is very simple: while it would be nice if this devolution of powers occurred, it should (and can only) occur once agreement has been reached between the local parties. And with no agreement, merely one party’s incessant, disingenuous, fooling no one-whining, no transfer (as yet). Okay? So now, please, ffs, think of something else to say, or else join that circle of SlugHell reserved for the monomaniacal likes of repartitionistheanswer Greenflag et al.
Posted by on Aug 27, 2008 @ 03:58 PM
