Friday, January 20, 2006
Bertie tightens grip on poll lead?
Looks like the big budget giveaway in the Republic has paid off for Bertie. Fianna Fail’s rating goes up by three per cent and Ahern is now the most popular political leader. Sinn Fein drops one per cent, bringing it to 9%. The party’s core vote sits now at 7%, which is marginally above the 6.5% it achieved in the general election of 2002. If there’s a silver lining it is the continued popularity of Gerry Adams, up 1% to 40% satisfaction rating, which may indicate that more people may be willing to transfer to SF further down the ballot than previously.
Mick Fealty @ 03:10 PM
I’m having the weekend off TD, so here’s some necessarily brief answers:
1 Because Slugger is focused on NI, and Sinn Fein is the only serious northern player in the running in the south.
2 I’ve been tracking these polls for about two years and the Sinn Fein results are always the primary focus for reasons outlined in 1.
3 Give my head peace. Slugger is a popular site, but it’s mine. There is no obligation on me to be fair or balanced. What I try to do is to give each point of view I blog a fair play. DI is as likely to appear here as BT even though their influence and size of readership is hugely uneven on the ground. You come up with a hidden agenda for it if you like, but I blog what I think is interesting. I’m trying track the main narratives (and where possible) the counter narratives pertaining to NI. If I do it with bias and prejudice, it only proves I’m human!
4 I track three polls on regular basis: IT; SBP; and the Irish Examiner’s. There’s never a huge difference in any of them. Fopr instance all reflect GA’s resurgent popularity since the Autumn and SF’s static performance.
5 I see no reference to qualitative evidence. He’s pulling from the context of the timing of the poll. Is it not fair comment to extrapolate from figures - even if you get it wrong?
6 the first clause I can agree with, but you seem to miss the point that Slugger is a blog, not a newspaper: see my IT piece for more on this (http://www.mickfealty.com/news.htm).
The comment section here has proved (periodically) that the ability to share knowledge and the syntheses that can arise from simple conversations can add considerable value to the simple reading of the original source.
Posted by on Jan 21, 2006 @ 08:44 AMDubliner
There is a link to the article for us to read for ourselves, and most who visit this site are too old and grey to take one set of opinion poll figures too seriously especially with the margin of error. Judging by other threads some have an intimate knowledge of voting patterns, transfer rates and statistics. We know polls merely suggest a general trend and I can’t imaging any of us getting over excited by a SF drop of 1%. We also know that polls tend to understate SF support.
The qualifications you suggest are totally unnecessary. It would be like advising people to take care when opening a tin of beans. It would make turgid reading if all posts followed this pattern. As for suggesting the press have motives, well yes, but who doesn’t yourself included.
Posted by on Jan 21, 2006 @ 08:50 AMCan anyone from Dublin give an unbiased view of the state of the parties there? It is clear if SF is to make a sizeable leap forward it will have to perform well here.
People from SF are saying the organisation on the ground, right across all the constituencies is well organised and getting good feedback. Others are saying it is very patchy.Mick has mentioned the good organisational strength that will stand them in good stead come the election. Are they for instance replicating what they do in the northern six counties ie targetting non voters and traditional non voter parts of the electorate?
Posted by on Jan 21, 2006 @ 09:14 AMOne thing that has not been mentioned much is Labour’s 16% rating. This could get Labour 30+ seats in the Dáil, possibly exceeding their performance under Dick Spring in 1992. (Last time they got 20 elected with less than 11%). It appears from these poll pigures that we would have a minority rainbow govt with the Labour and Green seats about equal to those of FG.
Pat Rabbitte could be the next Taoiseach (seriously).
Posted by on Jan 21, 2006 @ 10:30 AMMy fear about the Labour jump is that it will encourage others to jump on the anti-immigrant bandwagon.
I certainly hope we aren’t going to have an election to be ashamed of.
Posted by on Jan 21, 2006 @ 10:39 AMWhilst it is true that polls typically predict with an average error of around 1.5 percentage points; it is clear that the aanouncement by the IRA that it has formally ordered an end to its armed campaign and that it will pursue exclusively peaceful means, has not repaed the political dividend that Sinn Fein would have hoped for.
Any number of reasons can be posited for this; Northern Bank robbery; McCartney murder, the outing of Donaldson etc…
Whatever, the ending of the campaign and the giving up of weapons was a very big trump card, and it has clearly not worked the oracle. It is hard to see where the next catalyst is going to come from, that is going to propel Sinn Fein’s share of the vote forward.
Interestingly, Bertie does not seem to have suffered from his friendship with Flynn…
Posted by on Jan 21, 2006 @ 10:56 AMCiaran
Where do you see Labour gaining and from whom?
Henry
I agree you can always tell politicians in desperation; they start thumping on about immigration or locking up criminals. It’s a sure sign that Labour does not see the Rainbow getting enough seats.
Posted by on Jan 21, 2006 @ 10:59 AMgypsynolan
In tactical terms Sinn Fein did not get credit for decommissioning because it didn’t happen soon enough. They overplayed their hand. Lesson learned I hope.
But overall I would compare their position in the south with the way they were in the 80s in the north. There was the initial jump when natural Sinn Fein voters were coming out. Then for a long period there was no real growth. But then as the hard slog on the ground started to pay off the votes came inI expect Sinn Fein to hit 20% in the south in about 10 years.
Are we going to have a thread on Hain calling the Police Board liars
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/4633762.stm
Posted by on Jan 21, 2006 @ 11:08 AMPossible Labour gains with 16% of the vote:-
Dublin South (from GP)
Dun Laoghaire (2 seats) 1 gain from GP or FF
Dublin Mid West (const gains 1 seat)
Dublin South Central from FF
Dublin North Central from FF
Wicklow from Ind
Meath East (new const)
Cork South West (from FF)
Cork South Central from FF
Louth from FF
Tipp North from FF
Tipp South from Ind
Kerry North from FFIf Marian Harkin doesn’t run there is a possibility of taking her seat also. Labour should also keep their seat in Carlow Kilkenny (the Ceann Comhairle was automatically elected here last time)
Posted by on Jan 21, 2006 @ 11:25 AMGood anaylsis and informed politcal debate going on here, this is more like the good old days!
Keep it up slugger!
‘But overall I would compare their position in the south with the way they were in the 80s in the north.’
I think this is a difficult comparison to make Henry, the situation on the ground and the circumstances are entirely different.
James D
Posted by on Jan 21, 2006 @ 12:11 PM“One thing that has not been mentioned much is Labour’s 16% rating. This could get Labour 30+ seats in the Dáil, possibly exceeding their performance under Dick Spring in 1992. (Last time they got 20 elected with less than 11%). It
Pat Rabbitte could be the next Taoiseach (seriously).”Ciaran,
The Labour Party is owned and controlled by the Public sector trade unions down here. The hostility to the said unions is growing every day. Pat Rabbite has NO chance of ever being Taoiseach or any other Labour leader either.Posted by on Jan 21, 2006 @ 12:32 PMCiaran
Labour would need FG to be stagnating to take a lot of those mentioned, Dun Laoghaire, Dublin Mid West, Meath East, Cork South West, Cork South Central, Tipp North.
In Dublin North I think there are 2 safe FF seats and I can’t see a gain in Louth. Also in Cork South Central Kathy Sinnott has to be in there with a good chance.
Forgot Seamus Pattison was Labour, was thinking of his FF predecessor also from Carlo Kilkenny.
But let us assume as you suggest Labour get 32 and FG 41. To have a majority Greens would need 11 seats and that is one that my mind just can’t comprehend. It all just shows the massive amount of ground that the possible alternative coalition has to make up to be seen as a possible future government.
Posted by on Jan 21, 2006 @ 12:43 PMSorry above should be FF 2 safe seats Dublin North CENTRAL
Posted by on Jan 21, 2006 @ 12:56 PMCraetagus,
“Labour would need FG to be stagnating to take a lot of those mentioned, Dun Laoghaire, Dublin Mid West, Meath East, Cork South West, Cork South Central, Tipp North.”
Not necessarily, for example both parties could gain a seat in Dun Laoghaire. The fact that Labour is generally better at attracting transfers than FG should increase their relative strength in any possible coalition. For example, past experience shows that SF transfers favour the rainbow parties over FF/PD but their transfers go mainly to Labour and the Greens rather than FG.“But let us assume as you suggest Labour get 32 and FG 41. To have a majority Greens would need 11 seats and that is one that my mind just can’t comprehend.”
If FG+Labour+Green get to the high 70s in seats then they will have enough to form a minority government. 11 Green seats are not required. The polls have been consistently indicating that this will be the result of the next election.Posted by on Jan 21, 2006 @ 01:22 PMGosh but there’s been a lot of poorly thought out posts on this thread. Here’s one example from (the normally more sensible) Ciaran Quinn. “A more accurate headline might be “Government still behind the alternative coalition””.
This is wrong on two fronts. Firstly the Greens have stated clearly and repeatedly that they do not want a pre-election pact with FG & Labour. Indeed many inside the party would prefer a deal with FF, if the numbers stacked up (the Greens would have to overtake the PDS for this to be reven considered).
Secondly if you actually choose to second guess the Greens and put them together with FG & Labour and offer the electorate that choice versus the current coalition, the FF/PDs come out on top by 39% to 33%. Read today’s Irish Timees for confirmation.
It’s clear that over a year out from the next election, that the government has re-taken the initiative. Polls before an election tend to understate the support for the status quo (especially in Ireland). If the results of this poll are replicated in an election, then FF and the PDs will almost certiainly form the next government, though most likely with support from independents.
As for SF, it’s another poor performance coming after previous poor polls. The glass ceiling on all previous “left of Labour” parties seems to have kicked in, and on 9%, they don’t have any chance of the 14 seats they believe that they will win.
At the time of SF/IRAs supposed decommissioning last year I posted that I thought that the short sightedness of SF/IRA leadership would come back to haunt them. By not decommissioning in a transparent manner, they played right into the hands of the DUP in Northern Ireland and put the timescale for devolved government back by several years. I also said that I thought that far from giving SF a bounce in the polls in this country the so called “decommissioning” would have little impact, and so it’s proven to be. It’s now long forgotten and politically all but irrelevant.
Posted by on Jan 21, 2006 @ 01:48 PM“One thing that has not been mentioned much is Labour’s 16% rating. This could get Labour 30+ seats in the Dáil, possibly exceeding their performance under Dick Spring in 1992. (Last time they got 20 elected with less than 11%). It
Pat Rabbitte could be the next Taoiseach (seriously).”I doubt that. Labour actually got 33 seats on 19% of the vote in 1992, so 16% wouldn’t be enough to even reach those levels let alone exceed them.
I would also point out that although 39% say they prefer the current government to 31% fo the Opposition, that leaves many against either or undecided. I wouldn’t interpret this poll as meaning the govt will get back in. The US Presidential election showed that it isn’t always “the economy stupid” as did the UK G.E. in 1997.
Posted by on Jan 21, 2006 @ 01:49 PMKeith M,
the only poll figures that really matters are voting intentions, and on this basis FG+LAB+GP are on 44%, ahead of FF+PD on 40%. On the traditional comparison, FG+LAB 40% are ahead of FF 37%.
Looking at the transfers at the 2002 election, Green supporters overwhelming preferred FG+LAB to FF+PD, with the Labour party being their preferred destination. It is likely that the Greens will have the option in the next Dáil of either joining a rainbow government or of supporting a minority FG+LAB govt. If they were to choose FF instead they would seriously damage themselves.
Brian Boru,
Labour got 33 seats with 19% of the vote in 2002 but 33 was not a real reflection of their support. Had Labour run more candidates they would have got 36 seats - 30 seats with 16% is roughly proportional to 36 seats with 19%.
Posted by on Jan 21, 2006 @ 02:17 PMKeith
“ Firstly the Greens have stated clearly and repeatedly that they do not want a pre-election pact with FG & Labour”
I think Trevor Sargent has stated that he very much prefers FG & Labour and even rashly stated that he would not lead the Greens into such a coalition. Also there was something really odd about their decision not to run in the Presidential election. Their activists seemed to want to run Eamon Ryan, but for some reason following a meeting with Pat Rabbitte the leadership decided not to. It struck me that they had Labour by the proverbials and they then let them off WHY?
Their reservation about the Rainbow Coalition are probably to do with not wishing to alienate FF transfers as their wish list must include places like Carlow-Kilkenny, Clare, Wicklow and West Galway. Also they are more likely to loose seats to FG and Labour than they are to FF and PDs. So why endorse someone who may replace you?
Posted by on Jan 21, 2006 @ 02:33 PMSorry my brain is not in gear today, been hitting the night nurse. The above should read.
I think Trevor Sargent has stated that he very much prefers FG & Labour and even rashly stated that he would not lead the Greens into a coalition with FF. ( I read it somewhere but can’t trace a link)Get hot water bottle and go to bed I think.
Posted by on Jan 21, 2006 @ 03:07 PMCiaran “the only poll figures that really matters are voting intentions.”. This is where you and I differ. As you know full well poll like this only indicate where first preferences go, yet more than two thirds of our TDs are elected through transfers and to get an indication of where transfers will go, you need to get a view of the relative levels of support of both coalitions. At the moment the FF/PD option is far more popular than the FG/Lab, so that when minor parties, independents etc are eliminated, their transfer are far more likely to go to the government. Also that is before you consider things such as the fact that the government will dictate the time of the election, and the generally accepted swing to the status quo during an election campaign. This is a very good poll for the government (esp FF) and shows that the opposition has a uphill job to unseat them.
Alsoi you mention 30+ seat for Labour on 16%. This is cloudcuckooland. On the 2002 election you suggest “had Labour run more candidates they would have got 36 seats.” There is only one extra seat that was clearly winnable (Dublin South), any others are highly debatable. Also things have moved on from 2002. Labour are now being challenged by SF for votes from the left, not just first preferences but also transfers. Microparties like the WP, SP, SWP are more likely to transfer to SF than Labour. On 16% of the vote Labour will get 25-28 seats. On that figure thare’s about as mi=uch chance of Rabbitte being Toaiseach as Paul Berry becoming the next Pope.
Crataegus, I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt as by your own admission your head wasn’t in gear. I recall no statement Sargent expressly ruling out coalition with FF. They may not be equi-distant from both potential coalitions, but putting them in one camp is clearly erroneous.
Posted by on Jan 22, 2006 @ 09:57 AMKeith M,
“more than two thirds of our TDs are elected through transfers”
Transfers do not account for 2/3 of the seats a party wins. Consider the difference between FF in 1992 (68 seats on 39.11%) and in 1997 (77 seats on 39.3%). In the case of FF once can say that about 10 seats depend on the party’s ability to attract transfers.“At the moment the FF/PD option is far more popular than the FG/Lab, so that when minor parties, independents etc are eliminated, their transfer are far more likely to go to the government.”
This is simply not true. The 2002 election was fought in much more favourable circumstances for FF/PD but independent/minor party transfers overwhelmingly favoured the opposition. The FF/PD combination is 5.5% below its 2002 performance. I don’t think questions other than voting intentions really matter - for example, Gerry Adam’s popularity did nothing for SF’s ability to attract transfers.As regards Labour in 1992, the party got over 1.7 quotas in Dublin North but allowed Trevor Sargent to take the seat. In Dublin South Central, Labour won more votes than FF but Briscoe FF took the last seats by 5 votes from Byrne of DL. A donkey standing for Labour would have taken a seat.
An improved performance for SF next time may benefit Labour as Labour are likely to be the ultimate beneficiary of SF transfers. Simply staying ahead of the SF candidate (which should not be difficult on 16% v 9%) should ensure a healthy transfer boost. Labour should get a big seat bonus because of SF’s inability to attract transfers. I think that 30 seats on 16% is a realistic aim - you yourself allow that 28 is possible.
Posted by on Jan 22, 2006 @ 12:40 PMKeith
I still can’t find an article that states that Sargent would not lead the Green Party into a FF lead coalition. From memory it was a speech at their convention and it struck me as odd for on one hand the membership had voted for no pact with anyone and on the other the leader was undermining that position. Apart from that the first rule of politics is never say never.
It seems clear enough to me that the leadership of the Greens prefer FG and Labour as the links below indicate, but suppose they are also consistent with being an opposition party. The sadist in me would like to see the Greens in a position of being asked by FF to form a government post the next election.
I tend to agree with your assessment of Labour’s chances. They will be lucky to get out of the mid 20’s and the most likely seats they could take are often off other members of their coalition. As you say transfer patterns are crucial, but I think usually only for the last seats. The big problem for Labour is that often for them to really benefit from transfers they will need to be ahead of FG’s lowest candidate. In many seats that just is not going to happen unless FG go into reverse.
With the smaller parties like SF, Greens and PDs it is not their overall percentage that is important but how that support is concentrated and what ground work they are doing. SF will gain a few seats as may the Greens. Both these could dent Labours ambitions.
People also forget FF’s superb vote management. They tend to get more seats than their percentage of the vote. However this also means that a relatively small fall in votes could result in a disproportionate level of loss. Also there will be more 3 seaters in the next election and this will favour FF.
There is no doubt in my mind that, bar a disaster, FF will be in the next government, probably with the PDs and independents or alternatively with Labour. A FF and SF government may also be numerically possible but politically I don’t see it just yet. FF, Labour and Greens just won’t have the numbers.
By the way there are some real dog fights looming. Dublin Central has the following candidates declared; Bertie Ahern; Joe Costello; Paschal Donohoe; Tony Gregory; Mary Lou McDonald; Patricia McKenna Labour’s seat and FFs second seat are weak. The only certain seat here is Bertie’s.
The Green Party links below;
“At our Annual Convention this year the party membership decided that the party will contest the next general election as an independent party without any voting pacts with other parties. So over the next 20 months we will be emphasising the importance of getting rid of this FF/PD government but, more importantly, will be working toward bringing real positive change to any alternative government.”Mr Gormley today reiterated the party’s clear preference for a coalition involving Fine Gael and Labour and said a vote for the PDs was a vote for Fianna Fáil.
Posted by on Jan 22, 2006 @ 02:41 PM“We also know that polls tend to understate SF support.”
Not in the South.
Posted by on Jan 22, 2006 @ 03:11 PMRumour has it that the Labour party in Laois is all set to run
THREE high profile candidates in the next elections:Samantha Mumba. Noam Chomsky. And Mick O Dwyer.
Posted by on Jan 22, 2006 @ 06:00 PMSo that’s why Samantha has been keeping her diary open.
Posted by on Jan 23, 2006 @ 01:46 AM
