Friday, January 20, 2006
Bertie tightens grip on poll lead?
Looks like the big budget giveaway in the Republic has paid off for Bertie. Fianna Fail’s rating goes up by three per cent and Ahern is now the most popular political leader. Sinn Fein drops one per cent, bringing it to 9%. The party’s core vote sits now at 7%, which is marginally above the 6.5% it achieved in the general election of 2002. If there’s a silver lining it is the continued popularity of Gerry Adams, up 1% to 40% satisfaction rating, which may indicate that more people may be willing to transfer to SF further down the ballot than previously.
Mick Fealty @ 03:10 PM
In February 2004, about two years ago SF’s rating was at 12%; it is now at 9%, a drop of 25%. Adams’ personal rating stood at 52%, the highest among party leaders; it is now at 40%, a fall of 23%. That’s the real story Mr Fealty - the Sinn Fein bubble has burst!
Posted by on Jan 20, 2006 @ 05:43 PMMick
The party’s core vote sits now at 7%, which is marginally above the 6.5% it achieved in the general election of 2002.
If this is the way you want to examine the poll then you should do it for all the parties.
Fianna Fail’s core vote sits now at 37%, which is below the 41.49% it achieved in the general election of 2002.
Fine Gael’s's core vote sits now at 18%, which is below the 22.49% it achieved in the general election of 2002.
The PDs’s core vote sits now at 3%, which is below the 3.75% it achieved in the general election of 2002.
The Greenss’s core vote sits now at 3%, which is below the 3.85% it achieved in the general election of 2002.
Besides Sinn Fein the only party to make a gain was Labour at 12% up from the 10.77% it achieved in the general election of 2002.
It is suggested by commentators that Labour’s gain was caused by it’s playing of the anti-immigrant card.
Posted by on Jan 20, 2006 @ 06:01 PMThe Irish Times headline “FF and Government make substantial gains in poll” is clearly misleading. The combined FF+PD vote has gone from 38% in the last Irish Times poll to 40% today, while the combined FG+Labour+Green vote has remained static at 44%.
If the margin of error is 3%, how can any reputable journalist say describe a movement between opinion polls that is less than the margin of error as “substantial”?
A more accurate headline might be “Government still behind the alternative coalition”.
Posted by on Jan 20, 2006 @ 06:09 PMI see what you’re arguing Henry. And you may be right in your assertion.
However, I did add the caveat that the improved popularity of GA in the last three months has been buoyant, and may mean that it can expect to expand further much further outside that core vote. As Ciaran says though, factoring in error margins, it more probably indicates stasis for SF’s phenomenal pre-2005 growth.
Effectively it means that the party is over in the south. Short of a surprising blindside move from SF, it’s real grind from here on.
Posted by on Jan 20, 2006 @ 07:34 PM‘Effectively it means that the party is over in the south.’
Was there ever a time when the party was ever actually on. Given the sustained attack on SF for as long back as you want to go the robustness of the SF figures can be viewed as quite good.
Come the election the ready headlines available to certain politicians will not be as forthcoming.
Posted by on Jan 20, 2006 @ 07:50 PMPat, by ‘party’ I didn’t mean to obscure the committment, dedication and hard work of it’s workers. That was and presumably remains higher than most of its rivals north and south.
I’d say the media onslaught (and onslaught it has been) is about a year old. The party was given a fair wind from early years of the peace process until the NB robbery. Whether or not the IRA did the job, perceptions have turned.
The problem for the party now is that the dominant narratives in the media have turned against them almost in spite of the one truly historic event of the last ten years taking place in September - the decommissioning of the IRA’s weapons.
I have no doubt they will continue to press home the advantage that hard work and good organisation will bring them on the ground. I only say it will be much tougher to squeeze out further gains than it was just over 12 months ago.
Posted by on Jan 20, 2006 @ 08:04 PMAgreed Mick.
Posted by on Jan 20, 2006 @ 08:17 PMLabour are up 2 on 16% - highest vote in 2 years. No prizes for guessing why. Thank you Rabbitte for telling it as it is.
Might I add that polls in Germany before the elections there placed Schroder as the prefered Chancellor and showed most against change, yet look what happened. 10 yrs is long enough Bertie.
Posted by on Jan 20, 2006 @ 08:36 PMLet’s not overstate it. The current government have been in an enviable position in terms of the economy. No opposition party has managed to cosistently put a dent in Fianna Fail’s popularity.
It’s a grind all round. For Sinn Fein to get to 9% from nowhere in the prevailing becalmed political conditions has been a fair acomplishment.
Posted by on Jan 20, 2006 @ 08:50 PM37% would still put FF 4% behind their performance last time. Also, the PD Coalition partners’ 3% is not far from the 4% last time that they got, and it was a fluke that they doubled their seats on a 0.7% drop in their vote share, namely the huge numer of Opposition transfers that FG and other voters gave to them to stop FF ruling alone. The PD’s will probably hold McDowell, O’Donnell and Harney’s seats, and Grealish’s in Mayo but that’s about it. They had a chance after the 2004 referendum to carve out a niche as an immigration-control party and they failed that challenge. McDowell talks the talk on asylum-seekers but deported only 394 this year out of 70,000 A.S.‘s in this country since 1995. And he gave an amnesty to parents of Irish-born children of asylum-seekers whose children were born before January 2005 - 6 months after the referendum endorsed by 80-20 to stop the baby-tourists using their babies to get Citizenship.
BTW, this happens after every budget. The Government got a lift also after it in 2005. Then their vote slide again. PPL will not be fooled.
Posted by on Jan 20, 2006 @ 09:03 PMThe bounce in the polls will last Bertie about as long as a new Osama tape for Dubya on Al Jazeera ; a month - give or take.
As long as its still three to a trolley in the A and E’s, its one man one vote, the votes are still counted fairly and “given cake is soon forgotten”, then….
Posted by on Jan 20, 2006 @ 09:14 PMFG+Labour+Green vote has remained static at 44%
and
A more accurate headline might be “Government still behind the alternative coalition”.
The greens have yet to join with labour and Fine gael. they could just as easily be in with Fianna fail. So I don’t think your headline is right either. The headline in the paper is more correct. The green party could be the king makers in 2007Posted by on Jan 20, 2006 @ 09:37 PMHenry 94, I’m repeating a question I’ve put on another website (and it’s not a debating point - I’m curious) given what you believe in (social Conservatism, free markets, support for the War on Terror) don’t you think that you’d be in rather a difficult position if Sinn Fein were ever to be the dominant party on either side of the Irish border?
Apart from a United Ireland, is there anything you agree with this Marxist sect about?
Posted by on Jan 20, 2006 @ 10:31 PMBertie is popular because he seems to be doing an adequate job and the opposition looks like the less competant evil.
Given that an taoiseach has not screwed up awfully and that Enda Kenny does not seem to set anyone’s pulse racing (in a good way) changes in the southern political status quo are only likely if there is an economic downturn or a very serious FF scandal (and the Shannon flights and CIA kidnapping collusion apparently do not qualify).
Otherwise the only question is who, if anyone, gets to go into coalition with FF after the next election.
Our only hope for some excitement down here is that Michael McDowell comes out of the closet and orders that the new Garda reserve wear bright red arm bands and jackboots.
Posted by on Jan 20, 2006 @ 11:08 PMSean Fear
In a United Ireland I would probably vote for someone else. But until then I will vote Sinn Fein.
Of course their politics are leftist and oppositionalist but in government they would have to face certain realities.
On economic policy that is already happening. I favour lower taxes to create employment and for no other reason. I don’t see any viable alternative to an enterprise economy.
Social conservatism is a very broad term. I think people should be free to make their choices in life once they don’t directly damage others and they don’t ask others to subsidise them.What that means in practise is a case-by-case discussion.
I think that in the war on terror Ireland should support the US. In the great moral and military battles of the last 100 years, against the Nazis and the Communists we sat on our hands. There were understandable historical reasons for that but in retrospect they were shabby decisions.Democracy is now facing another struggle. As I have argued in another context if you support the struggle you have to accept the bits of it you might not like. Because you are fooling yourself if you think anyone is going to get it right all the time.
I hope that answers your question to some extent.
Posted by on Jan 20, 2006 @ 11:29 PMMore from the poll in Saturday’s IT
More voters would like to see the Fianna Fail/Progressive Democrat coalition returned to Government, according to the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll.
The poll shows a rise in favour of the Government of eight percentage points since the last such poll was carried out in September 2005.
Some 39 per cent were in favour of the existing coalition forming the next Government with 31 per cent preferring a coalition involving Fine Gael, Labour and possibly the Green Party. 16 per cent wanted neither of these and 12 per cent have no opinion.
Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats have a clear lead over the rainbow coalition on the questions of managing the economy, keeping taxes low and keeping the peace process in Northern Ireland on track.
Posted by on Jan 20, 2006 @ 11:47 PMCan anyone remember if the Progressive Democrats won all
the seats the party contested at the last election, May 2002?Or was EIGHT just the magic number predicted by Mary
Harney when she won that unlikely bet?Posted by on Jan 21, 2006 @ 01:08 AMAgree with 12;29 post Henry, never bought the socialist just the 32 county republic. I think many SF voters are a lot more conservative than people imagine
Posted by on Jan 21, 2006 @ 01:11 AMShay Begorrah
“the only question is who, if anyone, gets to go into coalition with FF after the next election”
I agree.
The problem with both coalitions is the smaller parties. The PD’s are over stretched at present and the Greens could loose seats to FG. I am assuming that the reason they are not jumping into a coalition with FG & Labour is they are defending seats in Dublin South and Dun Laoghaire against these parties and are trying to take seats in Carlow-Kilkenny and Galway West where they need FF transfers.
With both the PD’s and Greens (and SF) it all depends on the work they are doing on the ground now. Their overall percentage is misleading. So it is very much a series of local battles. Also FF election machine is good at maximising the seats they get based on the percentage of the vote and FF tend to strengthen during an election.
For there to be change FF has to have a disastrous loss of seats. I have pasted the bit below in from another thread where I went through each constituency and assumed some reversal against FF and they remain dominant. The big looser may be independents, but I don’t know enough about some of these characters.
Greens down 2 at 4
FG up 11 at 42
Independents down 7 at 6
SF up 4 at 9
FF down 6 at 75 plus the speaker who is re-elected.
Labour up 1 at 21
PDs down 1 at 7
Socialists remain at 1
This would give FF plus PDs sitting with 83 but needing independents and all that nonsense. FF + Labour would be home and dry. The alternative Rainbow just don’t have the numbers.
Some of you know the constituencies better than I do, but here goes.
Carlow Kilkenny:- Green Gain from FF with SF transfers
Cavan Monaghan:- Possible Ind loss to FG
Clare:- No change
Cork East:- No change
Cork North Central:- No change
Cork North West:- No change
Cork S Central:- FG or Ind gain from FF
Cork SW:- No change
Donegal NE:- No change
Donegal SW:- No change
Dublin Central:- SF gain from FF
Dublin mid west:- No Change but possible FG gain from Greens
Dublin North:- No change
Dublin North Central:- Labour Gain from Ind
Dublin NE:- FG gain from FF
Dublin NW:- SF gain from FF or Labour
Dublin South:- Probably no change but could be Lab or FG gain from Greens
Dublin S-Cen:- Possible Labour gain from FF
Dublin SE:- Pos SF gain from Lab or FF but tough one.
Dublin SW:- No Change
Dublin West:- No Change Dun Laoghaire:- FG gain from Greens
Galway East:- Possible FF gain from Ind
Galway West:- Possible FG gain from PDs or Labour
Kerry North:- No Change
Kerry South:- FG gain from Ind end of Healy Rae?
Kildare North:- No change
Kildare South:- Pos FG gain from Labour
Laoighis Offaly FG gain from FF
Limerick East:- No change but possible FG gain from Labour.
Limerick West:- No change
Longford Roscommon:- No change
Louth:- No Change
Mayo:- No change
Meath:- Possible SF gain from FF If this is being split into two 3
seaters???? If so it will favour FF
Sligo Leitrim:- No change
Tipperary North:- FG gain from FF
Tipperary South:- No change
Waterford:- No change
Westmeath:- No change
Wexford:- Possible FG gain from Independent but FF could also gain.
Wicklow:- Labour gain from independent but it will be a tough one.Posted by on Jan 21, 2006 @ 03:06 AMFianna Fail will hardly drop to TWO seats in the Laois Offaly
five seater, Crataegus. Unless Labour gets a star candidate,
the PD’s Tom Parlon will hold off any FG resurgence, and
THEY need a strong contender to replace Charlie Flanagan
who retired after the 2002 debacle. Interesting analysis. But
wishful thinking. Pat Rabbitte favours a rainbow rather than
another disastrous courting of Fianna Fail, which was Dick
Spring’s achilles heel. Nine seats for the Shinners. You’ve got
to be joking.Posted by on Jan 21, 2006 @ 03:32 AMRichard
“wishful thinking”
I am fairly neutral.
What I was trying to illustrate is FF are well dug in, and that hopes for an alternative probably are just that HOPES.
Also from time to time we hear of SF upsurge but at best they will gain a few seats but I can’t see them leaping forward and with the quality of the current TDs it could be difficult to justify voting for them.
As for Greens heaven knows, they have a very strong candidate in Carlow but you would really need to know what they are up to on the ground in places like Wicklow, Galway West, and Clare. For them to move forward they have to break out of the Urban area and also hold existing seats. Looks difficult to me with FG on the rise and their leadership, whilst sound enough, lacks charisma. They are likely to get between 4 and 8 TDs. 7 or more would delight them as they could drop that coalition of convenience they have with SF and independents.
PD’s were blessed in the last election and I don’t see their vote increasing so I would imagine they will loose 1 or 2 seats.
Labour at best will gain 2 or 3 seats. The current upturn may be difficult to maintain. Post the election I would expect a leadership challenge.
Bar FF doing something unimaginable (the sleaze that surrounded them seems to be OK with the electorate) they will be in a commanding position. They will need PDs and one other or independents. Or FF and Labour but that would mean a new Labour Leader eventually. Also I can’t see Greens and PDs feeling comfortable together and FF and Green would probably also mean a new leader in the Greens. Also IF FF strengthen their position between now and the election the prospects of FG lead government disappear completely.
At present I cannot see FG having enough seats to act as the hub for an alternative. The election is there for FF to loose.
Posted by on Jan 21, 2006 @ 04:52 AMRichard
You may well be right about Tom Parlon.
With regards SF they have the resources and be in no doubt where they are targeting they are working on the ground NOW to build support. I can’t see them loosing seats. They are bound to gain. They are strong in Dublin Central, Dublin South East, Meath, Donegal and other parts of Dublin. Difficult to know how the recent choppy waters will impact and I do think they have reached a crossroad and it is difficult to know what way their overall level of support will go, but still very solid on the ground. 9 TD’s max 7 min. More interesting will be how they move beyond this election.
I used to think they walked on water but now I am not so sure and I can envisage possible reverse of fortune in the medium term. If that happens it will be very interesting to see how that plays with their supporters who are used to victories and gains.
Posted by on Jan 21, 2006 @ 05:29 AM“The party’s core vote sits now at 7%, which is marginally above the 6.5% it achieved in the general election of 2002.” - Mick
Mick, I agree with Henry’s point about this selection, but I’d like to ask you a couple of questions about it, if I may:
(1). Why did you select ‘bad news’ for Sinn Fein out of a poll that actually covered six political parties?
(2). Why did you compare the results of an opinion poll with the results of a general election and add the comment that Sinn Fein suffered a decline, when there is no valid comparison between the two separate sets of figures, and, therefore, no validity to the assertion that Sinn Fein suffered a decline?
(3). What are your thoughts on the role of editor/compiler as hidden censor? This is where a compiler of articles predominantly excludes articles that do not further a hidden agenda, and predominantly includes articles that do further said hidden agenda?
(4). What are your thoughts about commercial opinion polls from market research companies that are paid for by newspapers that may have a particular agenda, but fail to disclose either that agenda or the actual question that was asked, so that reader’s may make an objective judgement about whether the poll is what is referred to as a “push poll.”
(5). Do you think that Qualitative Research should be confused with Quantitative Research, such that it is valid to draw the former out of what is actually the latter? For example: “The boost for the Government, the Taoiseach and Fianna Fáil comes after a well-received Budget. The current heavy advertising signalling the imminent coming to fruition of the more than one million SSIA accounts may also have created a feel-good factor from which the Government has benefited.” Should the author of the article have disclosed that no such qualitative question was asked in the poll, and that such commentary was merely his qualitative interpretation?
(6). Now, notwithstanding the limited and flawed basis on which the poll was undertaken, political polls taken this far from an actual election can have no relevancy whatsoever to predicting the outcome of the next general election, so wouldn’t it have been prudent to point that out to your readers when using the poll to make political comments and comparisons that were predicated on the basis of the outcomes of previous general elections?
Posted by on Jan 21, 2006 @ 06:05 AMIn case the above is a tad longwinded (god forbid) and goes unread, I’ll add a single shorthand gist: The Irish Times poll is an ‘approval rating’ poll and not an ‘exit’ poll, so comparing it with election results is about as valid as comparing an illustration of an apple and with a bunch of juicy oranges.
Posted by on Jan 21, 2006 @ 06:49 AMRichard Dowling
Can anyone remember if the Progressive Democrats won all the seats the party contested at the last election, May 2002?
No they contested a lot of other constitencies too.
Cavan-Monaghan and Cork North Central off the top of my head but there were others.
Posted by on Jan 21, 2006 @ 08:36 AM
