Wednesday, December 03, 2008
And now for something completely different - Irish, British or Northern Irish?
The Newsletter reported yesterday that almost a quarter of Catholics consider themselves Northern Irish (http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/YOUR-VIEWS-Would-you-describe.4751380.jp). This throws up an interesting question as to how NI is changing (and for the better). I have no doubt that it is and the rapidity of that change is more acute when the Executive meets than when it doesn’t. The GFA’s brilliance was it reconciled the right to be Irish, British and Northern Irish within an agreed constitutional settlement for at least a generation. Its greatest defect was that it allowed one to be British, Irish or Northern Irish (or a mixture of the same) and argue for each position - a united Ireland, the Union, the good of NI - for at least a generation. Perhaps the future should not be seen in absolutes or for all time. Perhaps, in our situation, a generation is as good as it gets. And our generation will have to renegotiate something different!
Anne Monaghan @ 08:09 PM
As always with these NILT polls lets fact check their findings with one of the few things we get a full poll on, political leanings:
http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2007/Political_Attitudes/POLPARTY.html
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) 20%
Sinn Féin 14%
Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) 18%
Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) 20%
Alliance 8%
Other party (please specify) 2%
None of these 15%
Other answer 1%
Don’t know 1%Excuse me while I think yet again, their sampling is totally flawed and as a result the data highly suspect.
Posted by on Dec 03, 2008 @ 09:49 PMRealistically a permanent all time settlement was never possible. The GFA did however cement the current status quo anti and particularly importantly the Irish republic recognised the legal existence of NI as part of the UK. In that sense the GFA is pretty unionist because it underpins the current status of NI as part of the UK. Obviously a future generation might change that fact but I am doubtful of that.
Posted by on Dec 03, 2008 @ 09:53 PMYes, I have always wondered at the relative silence over the changes and amendments vis-a-vis Articles 2 and 3 of the Irish Constitution!
Posted by on Dec 03, 2008 @ 10:00 PMI’m going to go out on a limb here - I’d suggest that the consistent lack of reflection of political identification in the massive ‘Northern Ireland Life and Times’ survey may have something to do with who won’t be responding to a massive document with Northern Ireland written all over it.
But i supopose it gives some people something to cling to once a year and then I assume be utterly shocked when they see how real people actually vote en-masse.
Maybe weighting to reflect their inability to actually produce results that reflect reality would be in order?
Posted by on Dec 03, 2008 @ 10:01 PMAnne, don’t you mean “the next generation” will have to renegotiate something different…? Or will it be down to us late-50-somethings as we will be then…?
Just wondering…
Mark, I’m not sure what your post means. Do you mean that perhaps almost a quarter of Catholics DON’T feel they can call themselves Northern Irish?
It’s just with the speed of your post in refute of the original, one would almost think that there’s something wrong with so many people considering themselves to be Northern Irish. It’s a good halfway house. It’s increasingly a label - and oh so many people in this region need a label - that many are comfortable with.
Wouldn’t it be good to have something like that?
Or are you merely refuting the NILT survey and I shouldn’t read anything more into it than that….?
Posted by on Dec 03, 2008 @ 10:05 PMIf the GFA reconciles the “right” to be Norn Irish with the two national identities, then why can one not choose that identity on a census form?
The GFA explicitly does feck all for anyone who sees themself first and foremost as “Northern Irish”. It is, of course, a regional identity rather than a national one, and is not recognised in the GFA, or any other way in law that I can think of.
In fact, if one rejects the labels of (British) unionist and (Irish) nationalist, then it actively discriminates AGAINST those who choose any other identity.
A bit of a rose-tinted analysis of the GFA there Anne.
Mark
The previous survey indicated 20% saw themselves as Northern Irish, while this one puts the figure at 25%, so the figure does seem to be growing, even if the methodology is suspect (and is outside the margin of error).
And since I don’t think there’s as much embarrassment to admitting to being N. Irish as there is to being a voter for a particular party, the figures are more likely to be accurate.
Posted by on Dec 03, 2008 @ 10:11 PMYes, I am 34 next month ( I accept e cards) and the march of history seems to be generational at the very least. However, I qualify that with the belief that if we begin the debate now (without having to reach a conclusion) about where we go we can 1. Isolate those who oppose the agreed, constitutional settlement (not that they are not entitled to, but the majority on the island of Ireland voted for It) and 2. Reach a possible consensus on a way forward without creating a gap that can be filled through violence.
I agree with Mark that I don’t think we can take the NILTS as a guarantee of views but I do think when people vote they vote according to a multiplicity of factors.
Posted by on Dec 03, 2008 @ 10:13 PMIt doesn’t have to be a tick box on a form to feel it. But you might have a point Gonzo, that it should be!
Posted by on Dec 03, 2008 @ 10:15 PMThe Raven,
I’m just pointing out - as I do every time one of these NILT surveys is released and the media latches onto some aspect that is supposed to show a lack or reducing appetite for Irish unity - if you look at the only aspect that is subject to mass polling in elections, poltical identity, this survey consistently returns results that shows no refection of SF’s true vote.
SF at 14%. 4th largest support. As close to Alliance as it is the SDLP.
Excuse me while a I get my salt pinching equipment.
The day they get political identity near an electoral result is the day I’ll take this guff and their sampling seriously.
All of it is flawed when the checkable is so detached from reality.
Posted by on Dec 03, 2008 @ 10:18 PMTell us Ann.
How many of the East Belfast DPP Sub Group meetings did you attend when a member?
Posted by on Dec 03, 2008 @ 10:20 PMWithout getting bogged down re: the LTS it is still a worthwhile debate to have.
Posted by on Dec 03, 2008 @ 10:23 PMAnswer my question NOW
Posted by on Dec 03, 2008 @ 10:26 PMBG,
The political identification is so outside the margins of error across all the main 4 parties in every singe election it seems to indicate a massive sampling problem that stretches across this survey.
That kind of continual failing makes every single result highly questionable.
The day they have SF above the SDLP is the day I’ll start to even consider it credible.
This nonsense has been going on for years.
14% they say? Do they sell bridges too?
Posted by on Dec 03, 2008 @ 10:26 PMStill, Mark - I find such a near-instant dismissal of the notion - as opposed to the poll - that increasing numbers of people may be happy, or maybe just comfortable with a chosen identity that doesn’t immediately lend itself to orange or green quite to be just a tad quick-off-the-mark.
It certainly isn’t a national identity - it IS regional. But if it turned out, over time, to be a very easy solution to such an everyday topic - then why *couldn’t* it be an option? And one that many may happily subscribe to?
Sure, there’s nothing like keeping those interminable problems as being just that - interminable.
Waste of Space, I’d love to see where you’re taking this in relation to the topic.
Posted by on Dec 03, 2008 @ 10:27 PMWoS,
How about you stop trolling? If you’ve nothing to say on the topic have a go at saying nothing.
Posted by on Dec 03, 2008 @ 10:29 PMRaven,
I’ve been a continual critic of the NILT for this reason.
It may seem like a knee-jerk but its the first thing I check and until the day they get close to reflecting verifiable reality I’ll be a massive sceptic of the whole project - especially as the unverifiable data is used by many to support political hypothesis.
Posted by on Dec 03, 2008 @ 10:32 PMAnn-
What was your attendance?
Posted by on Dec 03, 2008 @ 10:35 PMMark
I’m not convinced that your argument stacks up in the way you think it does.
Haven’t you heard of floating voters?
Other party (please specify) 2%
None of these 15%
Other answer 1%
Don’t know 1%That’s 19% of the sample.
Or do you imagine that the population all have fixed major party political leanings?
Now, perhaps there is an embarrassment factor for Sinn Féin voters.
But that 19% allows room for much variation in actual voting patterns.
And it doesn’t, in itself, affect any of the other findings of the survey.
Posted by on Dec 03, 2008 @ 10:35 PMMark, we’ll agree to differ and I will continue to remain an optimist. ;-)
Waste of Space and indeed Time, it is much better to keep your trap shut, and let people think you are fool, than to open it, and confirm the fact.
Is there a moderator in the house?
Posted by on Dec 03, 2008 @ 10:41 PMPete,
The poll gives options for all those floating voters or non-voters.
It still shows SF in 4th fighting a battle with APNI and the SDLP with the people they get returns from.
Again I suggest if you put Northern Ireland on the front of a survey they are automatically producing weighting.
Posted by on Dec 03, 2008 @ 10:47 PMHere’s an idea.
Try three surveys with the same questions and samping methods and change the title:
Irish LTS
British LTS
NI LTSI’d love to see that.
Posted by on Dec 03, 2008 @ 10:52 PMFolks, the main reason for posting the blog was to generate a debate about the GFA and nationality. Is it as acceptable to be Northern Irish, as it is British or Irish - which are two acceptable nationalities? I don’t have the answers or a preference and the NILTS has conducted a small sample that cannot necessarily be compared with electoral results but the ‘poll’ has raised a vital question.
Posted by on Dec 03, 2008 @ 10:54 PMMark
Don’t you accept that the figures I’ve quoted represent those floating voters before they are faced with an election?
That’s 19% of the sample.
Or do you imagine that the population all have fixed major party political leanings at all times?
Perhaps you, and in another forum Sinn Féin, need to consider that point further.
Posted by on Dec 03, 2008 @ 10:55 PMAnne
It doesn’t seem as if there was a small sample used.
Posted by on Dec 03, 2008 @ 10:57 PMPete,
What was the actual figure? Samples are around 1000 - 2000. I mean small in terms of the electorate.
Posted by on Dec 03, 2008 @ 11:00 PM
