Friday, December 15, 2006
Alliance to burst through middle in South Belfast?
Well, it turns out that the Alliance’s candidate for the next Assembly election in south Belfast is Anna Lo, currently Chief Executive of the Chinese Welfare Association. It is a bit of a coup for a party that has consistently found itself outside the unionist/nationalist carve up at Stormont. If elected, she would be the only Chinese member of legislative Assembly in the UK. A classic match for one of Northern Ireland’s most diverse constituencies.
The Chinese population in Northern Ireland are by far the largest single ethnic minority. According to the CWA:
Currently there are around 8000 Chinese resident in Northern Ireland, representing 51% of the total ethnic minority population. The Chinese community is currently the largest and most dispersed ethnic minority group living in the North. The majority of this community lives in the Greater Belfast Urban Area; there are also significant numbers in Craigavon, Lisburn, Newtownabbey and North Down. Irwin and Dunn, noted in their study of ethnic minorities, that the Chinese community is growing at a faster rate than the general population.
Undoubtedly the quality and profile of the candidate that will draw votes in from right across the community in South Belfast. It would be hard to bet against her taking the seat.
Figures last time out were:
UUP 8,469 (27.0%, +3.6%) 2 seats
SDLP 7,176 (22.9%, +1.2%) 2 seats
DUP 6,529 (20.8%, +6.7%) 1 seat
SF 3,933 (12.6%, +6.2%) 1 seat
NIWC 2,150 (6.9%, -2.7%) Best result for NIWC in Northern Ireland
Alliance 1,849 (5.9%, -4.1%)
With a total of valid votes 31,330 the quota stood at 4,476. As well as the Alliance vote, she might expect to take the lion’s share of the Womens’ Coalition are not standing this time. More recently, the Local Government election figures from last year show the usual consolidation of Alliance at the local level. But also their potential to get a good candidate pretty close to the quota first time out:
SDLP 8,538.5 (26.9%)
DUP 8,057.8 (25.4%)
UUP 6,250.5 (19.7%)
Alliance 4,045.6 (12.8%)
Sinn Fein 3,274.7 (10.3%)
Independents 425.8 (1.3%)
PUP 385.3 (1.2%)
Green 369.0 (1.2%)
Socialist Party (229.3 0.7%)
WP 142.0 (0.4%)
Lo could take votes from right across the piste, but she could also unlock a substantial ethnic minority vote, who traditionally have been reluctant to get involved in a set of political arguments that by and large treat their social and economic interests as something of an afterthought.
On the face of it, this is not (contrary to Seamus McKee’s line of questioning on Good Morning Ulster this morning) a gimmick. It puts considerable (and much unwanted) pressure on the second candidates from the both UUs and the SDLP, each of whom were always going to struggle this time out.
In the case of Esmond Birnie, the DUP were already biting at his heels, and the party’s capacity to manage the vote in this constituency seems virtually non-existent. The direct loser is likely to be the SDLP, although it is less than clear which of Alisdair McDonnell or Carmel Hanna would take the fall.
Alliance may end up chalking this up as a gain. But they will need a few more gifted candidate choices (and a bit of luck), if they are to fight their way out of their own tight spots elsewhere.
Mick Fealty @ 08:56 AM
At last. For too long our political class has been almost entirely white. Now we have Anna Lo (Alliance) and Richard Watson (UUP). May they do well. Although I don’t know whether Richard is putting himself forward for election this time.
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 09:07 AMI really hate invalid comparisons.
Why compare with the 2005 Local Government elections - which don’t share the same boundary, when the 2005 Westminster results are available for the same boundary as the Assembly?
Because they suit the bias and spin being presented and the comparative figures aren’t as supportive of the argument being boosted?
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 09:28 AMThis is an interesting move. I had pointed out to both Unionist parties that the Chinese community in south Belfast is large enough for almost half an assembly quota (about 1750-2500).
From what limited work has been done (and all of it pre the latest larger scale immigration to NI) it appears ethnic groups generally adopt the attitudes of the host community they live in. As the majority of ethnic groups particularly Chinese lived or grew up in Unionist communities they tended to have ‘Unionist’ attitudes.
The response was uncomprehending stares or claiming they already had a great relationship. When challenged on the “great relationship” it usually came down to they talked occassionally to CWA and had been to a Chinese New Year event. Although one candidate did express an interest in getting Chinese literature.
The census figures underestimate their size considerably in south Belfast, eg one ward claims to have 8 Chinese and I know more than that live in one street.
If the hope is a Chinese candidate will attract the voters of that ethnic background, there are two significant problems to be overcome if it is to work.
First a significant majority are not registered to vote. So a voter registration drive will be vital and then a mobilisation one on the day.
Two, most ethnic groups here avoid politics as they don’t want to get caught up in our political troubles and avoid officialdom. They face enough problems as it is and see no reason to add to them. Perhaps the peaceful situation will start to break down that power and wary attitudes to officialdom are usually first generation.
There also could be a third minor problem Anna Lo is of a Cantonese background and there is an expanding divide between the Cantonese and Mandarin speaking sections of the Chinese community here (this has included fighting among the young people). We aren’t the only ones who can find reasons for disagreeing within a racial group.
At the very least it will make the larger parties raise their game as regard the Chinese community in south Belfast.
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 10:18 AMAnna Lo will be an excellent candidate whether she runs for the Alliance Party or even if she stood as an independant. I hope she gets a seat.
The Good Morning Ulster interview was insulting, its about time someone from the Chinese community was elected and to dismiss it as tokenism is insulting in the extreme.
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 10:29 AMVery good chess move by the Alliance. If she doesn’t get enough 1st preference votes to get into the Assembly she should get transfers from the DUPers who refuse to give to nationalists or UUP and vice versa and every combination in-between. Hope she gets in. Makes a mokery of the D’Hont system if the old orange and green party systems are broken done lol
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 10:30 AMdpef,
The comment zone is the perfect place to unspin it.
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 10:38 AMAnna Lo is of a Cantonese background and there is an expanding divide between the Cantonese and Mandarin speaking sections of the Chinese community here (this has included fighting among the young people).
Jesus wept.
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 10:40 AMTheres a reason why our political class is generally white, because the overwhelming majority of the people are white!
If the Alliance really gave a fiddlers about ethnic minorities theyd not have made such a song and dance about it. Instead its a circus ‘oh look at us, first this first that’. Would they have made such a deal about it if it was ‘fat middle aged but perfectly competent bloke’ was selected?
It makes it stink of tokenism when in fact I’m sure she’s perfectly qualified and has worked her way into this position where she is considered a good candidate to run for the party. If Alliance hadnt made a song and dance about it then it wouldnt have smelt of anything.
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 10:51 AMIf you go by the Westminster vote the predicted result would be Assembly seats:
2 SDLP (with 30% of a quota spare)
2 DUP (with nothing spare)
1 UUP (with 58% of a quota spare)
1 SF (64% of a full quota)
Alliance missing out with 49% of quota.If you go by local government (as usual) it gets a lot more interesting. The predicted result would be:
2 SDLP (1 full quota 89% of a second)
2 DUP (1 full quota 78% of a second quota)
1 UUP (1 full quota 38% of a second quota)
1 Alliance (90% of a quota)
Sinn Fein loses out with 72% of a quota and little opportunity for transfers. Alliance’s best strategy would beThree caveats
1. SF managed to pull off their best ever result election result in 2003 by some very hard campaigning. They could do it again.
2. The UUP has decided to run three candidates (largely to avoid a bitter selection battle even though there is no basis for it in the electoral maths). This self-shattering of their own vote will ensure a LONG count and the more you allow people to transfer the messier it gets.
3. As always parties hoping to get two elected increase their chances by running candidates from either end of the constituency. In south Belfast that basically works out as the Belfast CC and Castlereagh Council parts. The UUP have a skew to the Belfast end (McGimpsey, Stoker, Birnie) The present SDLP MLA’s have a Belfast skew but will McDonnell run again? The DUP are yet to select.Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 11:29 AMLooks to me like Alex Maskey is in trouble.
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 11:46 AMWithout going off topic, I would like to say here that I am strongly in favour of IJP’s idea that ALliance MLAs, including Anna Lo if elected, should designate strategically as nationalist or unionist to optimize voting impact under the rules.
Basically, I detest designation but am more likely to vote for a candidate if they have a greater effect on the voting. I am happy for Alliance to determine the optimal designation after election.
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 11:51 AMDpef,
Have you got any idea what degree of difference boundaries make?
So far as I can see there is no direct comparator between any of these figures (that’s why I led with the last Assembly election result). Westminster is zero sum first past the post, which gives a misleading read of PR voter intention.
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 11:54 AMPerhaps we might inveigle Borat to stand as a representative of the Kazekhstan community. Who knows what with the colourful views he holdss on women, gypsies, jews and sexual liaison with animals he might well attract quite a proportion of like minded local support.
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 11:57 AMMaskey confirmed as SF’s candidate
http://www.sinnfein.ie/news/detail/17153
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 11:59 AMYOKEL
I must say, I haven’t seen the Alliance Party make a song and dance about it at all. The release on their website only mentions they selected a candidate and gives some info about background.
Seamus McKee on BBC made a song and dance about it, as have others. Says more about them, I would say.
SLUG
I actually agree with you, sometimes to influence things to get things done you have to play the game a bit.
As per the above stats, the Alliance Party have always scored higher locally than regioanlly, and I reckon that’s because they’re seen as relwevant locally but irrelevant regionally.
They’ve got to make themselves relevant.
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 12:37 PMFair ‘dos’ I’d give her my vote.
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 12:45 PMWell done, Anna, for taking the leap. There are a lot of very able people out there from Chinese and other backgrounds who could make a real difference.
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 01:01 PMIt us a pity that Ms Lo has choosen to become involved with a pro-British government party which has done very little to address the legacy of sectarianism and racism, both tools of division and colonialism, which is inbuilt into the six county system.
The anti-racist campaign if it is to succeed must be linked to an all Ireland strategy looking to make race discrimination illegal, written into the Irish constitution.
Unfortunately Ms Lo has taken the road of compromise and tokenism instead of telling it as it is, racism and sectarianism are the necessary tools of a British government which needs division to maintain its rule on this island.
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 01:53 PMGPJ,
Whatever faults the Alliance party has, I don’t think you can accuse them of doing nothing to little to address sectarianism. Unlike the four main parties, which all feed off it while pretending to decry it.
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 02:10 PMthe first politician to redcognise the importance of the |Chinese vote in S belfast was Martin Smyth, who did a lot for them and hoovered up their votes as a result.
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 02:28 PMIt would be ironic if Alliance, of all parties, was to take a seat thanks to mobilising an ethnic vote. Still, cheap cracks aside, this is undoubtedly a very imaginative move by Alliance and fair play to Ms Lo. Alliance needed something like this given its decline from the days when David Cook used to be clear runner-up to Martin Smyth. But I’m sure the sad story of Steve McBride from 1998 will stick in Alliance’s memory. A lot of first preferences might not be enough.
It certainly scrambles the permutations for the larger parties. Most likely Ms Lo’s election would be at the expense of one of the sitting nationalists, all of whom are high profile.
South Belfast will be one of the most interesting contests in March. If it’s to recover the Westminster seat held for most of the last century, the UUP needs to outpoll the DUP here and then trade a UUP clear-run here for a DUP clear-run in the Lakelands. But my guess is that the UUP will slide back further and the DUP will consolidate its position for what looks like a very good chance to turf Alasdair McDonnell off the green benches in 2009/10.
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 02:29 PMWhereas the Gimp wasn’t exactly a vocal fan of diversity. I wonder how that all worked out for him after he finally knifed Martin and got the UUP nomination for Westminster?
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 02:30 PMDelighted to see this news. Back in the day, I was always hopeful that Allaince (indeed, that all parties in NI) might be able to enlarge their talent pool a bit from outside the usual charmed circle of party activists. It’s good to see that a) there are people like Anna Lo willing to take the plunge and b) political parties ready to encourage them.
Note the careful wording of the statement (not quite sure whose statement) that she is the first ethnic minority candidate to stand for the Northern Ireland Assembly. There was a minor candidate in the 1982 Westminster by-election, also in South Belfast, called Jagat Narain, and the Green Party ran a couple of candidates for the 1996 Forum whose names suggest non-European background. However, she is certainly the first ethnic minority candidate to be selected for a potentially winnable seat, and almost certainly the first ethnic Chinese candidate to stand for any election in Northern Ireland.
It would be unwise to overstate the importance of the Chinese vote - the 2001 census had 4155 ethnic Chinese in the whole of Northern Ireland, of whom the 1112 in South Belfast were the largest concentration; but some of those will be under 18, and not all of them will have registered to vote. But Alliance failed to win the last seat in South Belfast by only 150 votes in 1998, and the margin between the last elected and the runner up in 2003 was even tighter. So every vote will count in March (assuming, of course, that there is an election then).
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 02:30 PM“the legacy of sectarianism and racism, both tools of division and colonialism, which is inbuilt into the six county system.
The anti-racist campaign if it is to succeed must be linked to an all Ireland strategy looking to make race discrimination illegal, written into the Irish constitution.
Unfortunately Ms Lo has taken the road of compromise and tokenism instead of telling it as it is, racism and sectarianism are the necessary tools of a British government which needs division to maintain its rule on this island.”
A parody surely! :D
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 02:51 PM“It us a pity that Ms Lo has choosen to become involved with a pro-British government party” GPJ
I can hardly imagine an ethnic minority going for any party other than Alliance. After all, the others are so deeply ingrained protestant and catholic that they muct seem extremely unsavoury to immigrants, who are often the brunt of racist attacks by their constituents. Calling Alliance pro-British is deeply sad, but at least those who are from outside NI (the new settlers!!!) can see beyond the pathetic rantings of the bi-gots on the extremes.
Posted by on Dec 15, 2006 @ 04:03 PM
