Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Adams “trapped by circumstances that are arguably of his own making”
The Irish Times catches up with the news of Dublin Cllr Louise Minihan’s resignation from Sinn Féin - and Monaghan Sinn Féin Cllr Matt Carthy says that she should honour a pre-election pledge which “states that if we leave Sinn Féin for whatever reason we will give our seats back to the party.” Meanwhile, via Newshound, in Village magazine, taking Gerry Adams’ World Tour for Irish Unity as a starting point, Ed Moloney argues that the signs are of a party in decline.
There are some persuasive reasons given for Sinn Féin’s decline. One says that once the St Andrews deal was done and the IRA’s guns embedded in cement, a major inducement to vote for Sinn Féin south of the Border – to keep peace alive – had evaporated. Another that it has to do with Sinn Féin’s ideological flip-flopping and lack of fixed beliefs. The move to the right after the disaster of 2007 in the search for a more moderate, less radical image was such a transparent ploy that it made it impossible for Sinn Féin to tack back in the wake of the economic collapse. Such antics invariably fail to impress the voter while disillusioning the grass roots activists. There is no doubt these were both important factors in Sinn Féin’s southern demise but history may judge that the real cause of the party’s woes was the leadership’s addiction to playing the IRA card for so long in the Northern peace process.
Pete Baker @ 01:09 PM
Go read the whole thing.
So now you’re commanding us to join your one-man infatuation with Gerry Adams?
Posted by on Jul 21, 2009 @ 02:32 PMSinn Féin was like a shark that forever needs to move forward; if it stops or worse, moves into reverse then it is doomed.
This is assertion without any real evidence, and smacks of a judgement made before all the facts are known. It sounds clever but is dumb. We’ve not reallly seen how SF handle persistent electoral setbacks, and we certainly don’t know the long effects. They might die, they might continue on more or less where they are, they might evetually find their discussions on direction decisively decided in a way that helps them. I don’t know.
There is certainly truth to the fact that SF overplayed the IRA card - and its probably even more damaging to Northern Nationalism than SF, because if everything was 5 years advanced we’d have a pretty good chance of FF being up here and active in politics. But this:
Furthermore her victory reinforces the impression created by the Southern results, that Sinn Féin is becoming what it really always was, a Northern party, not an all-Ireland party. The truth is, as one former member commented, very simple: ‘They’d gladly have Bairbre finish third if it meant Mary Lou would hold on to her seat.
This is the type of nonsense only able to be spoken when SF are so comfortably ahead of the SDLP as to make them irrelevance. If SF were in third place or in a desparate battle with the SDLP, I’d hazard a guess that there would be substantially more unrest abnd substantially more interest in where de Brun finished. That’s a bit of speculation, but since the linked article is full of it, I assume I’m allowed.
Despite the defectiosn (and by they by, they are far from limted to the South), SF retain a decent platform in local government and some Dail seats. They have a fairly substantial presence in most of the border counties, so Northern, yes, but not necessarily Nordie. Best guess is that they stay within the same sort of order of magnitude the next few cycles. Which is still more All Ireland than anyone else. Why exactly do people think it was going to be easy to supplant Labour, FF or FG in any significant sense? They were starting from an extremely low base.
SF have completed the transition to being just another party. Can people please start treating them, and thinking about them as one, please.
Posted by on Jul 21, 2009 @ 02:47 PMI can think of at least 5 parties in Ireland and the UK who would happily swap Sinn Feins “disaster of 2007” for their own predictament.
How about another golfing story instead to take our minds off the TUV disaster of losing a large percentage of their councillors recently
Posted by on Jul 21, 2009 @ 03:05 PMSinn Féin’s difficulties help to explain why dissident republicans have recently made something of a comeback. The killings in Massarene happened because disillusioned former Provisional IRA activists had moved over to their ranks, adding military skill and ruthlessness to groups that since Omagh had been justifiably regarded as incompetent and infiltrated.
I would have thought that Massereene happened in a way that was very rewarding for Sinn Fein and at a time when they needed the extra weight to be applied.
But so too does the drip-drip damage caused by Richard O’Rawe’s allegations of dirty dealing during the 1981 hunger strikes. His story is not just about whether the republican leadership rejected a British deal to end the protest that the prisoners’ leaders had endorsed, but whether the peace process strategy has its origins in the willful deaths of six hunger strikers, supposedly comrades and friends. It matters probably not at all to Nationalist voters but to the Provos’ IRA base, it is everything.
If publicised sufficiently this matter will be of great concern to every Nationalist voter. They will ask just what kind of man Gerry Adams is? What kind of man does that to his own friends? And not just to six of them, but to all of them in reality as he seems to have had his agenda from the beginning.
Posted by on Jul 21, 2009 @ 03:09 PMposted by Kathy C
it amazes me that people in sinn fein seem to be allowing gerry adams to destroy the party. Politics is something that is very current..‘what have you done today” . The past is the past and today is today….gerry adams recently has had many many bad recent today’s….and he should be walking away from politics while he has at least some bit of respecctability left…if he stays much longer…he’ll be a has been that people want even want to give a speach at some discussion on Ireland….get off the stage gerry…it’s time
Posted by on Jul 21, 2009 @ 04:05 PMI’m an American, and hardly an expert on Irish politics. But permit me, nonetheless, to make a couple of observations from this side of the pond.
Stating the obvious, there are two separate constituencies in Ireland, courtesy of the British Partition. That has been the unavoidable consequences of having created two distinct societies.
Sinn Fein has done remarkable well in representing the nationalist electorate in the north. The unionist majority are now compelled to work with the nationalists, and can no longer dictate policy or status to the nationalist electorate, as was the case before the Good Friday Agreement. There are formalized structures for cross-border cooperation, once unthinkable. And, contrary to the opinion express by Ed Maloney, even the photos of Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness sitting side by side said so much for Sinn Fein’s accomplishments on so many levels, that they could only be thought of as a positive for Sinn Fein. There is no reason to believe that Sinn Fein will not continue to be the largest nationalist party in the north, and with the splintering of the unionist parties, as the player with the biggest bat, Sinn Fein will enjoy even greater responsibility for the conduct of politics in the future.
To the extent that Sinn Fein has been successful in the north, any urgency felt by southern voters over the conditions in the north has been greatly diminished. The better the nationalist electorate fares in the north, the less the southern electorate feels a need for a united Ireland, or at least, for some dissolution of the bonds with Great Britain. The southern electorate’s conscience is assuaged, and voters in the south are free to return to the insular politics that have prevailed in the south for much of the last century.
It is true that Sinn Fein’s opportunities in the south have become more difficult; however, even the latest EU election, and the 2007 election, do not spell the end of Sinn Fein in the south. All mature political parties endure an ebb and flow in their support. When Tony Blair took Labour back to Downing Street, and particularly when he increased Labour’s majority in the Commons, many were writing the Conservative Party’s obituary. It would be equally foolish to write an obituary for Sinn Fein.
Posted by on Jul 21, 2009 @ 04:20 PMposted by Kathy C
Hi fellow American,
sinn fein is hemorraging elected officials…that is more than an ebb and flow. Even the realization that sinn fein is not addressing that issue shows that they are not interested in listening to their unhappy members to solve the problems. There comes a time when change is needed…and the change is in leadership of the party.
Posted by on Jul 21, 2009 @ 04:35 PMoldruss: “Stating the obvious, there are two separate constituencies in Ireland, courtesy of the British Partition. That has been the unavoidable consequences of having created two distinct societies.”
The partition arose because neither side, Irish or British, had the spine or stones to deal with the thorny issue of the Protestant dominated portions of Ulster at the time of the treaty that created the Irish Free State—IOW, both sides punted and, almost by omission, created the so-called “British” partition.
Posted by on Jul 21, 2009 @ 04:43 PMMy Dear downstairs neighbour Kathy C
sinn fein is hemorraging elected officials…
That is way over stating the leaking that is occuring and as Old Russ Points out it is quite natural. As the peace Process embeds itself the urgency ebbs and the idealists are the first ones to slough off
Posted by on Jul 21, 2009 @ 04:59 PMMaybe Sinn Fein should change its name to Sinn Fein The Workers Party. Then, in time, Legs [s]Diamond [/s] Ferris might be the FF boss of bosses. Lucky for the defectors, the Nuting Squad is on R&R.
Posted by on Jul 21, 2009 @ 05:02 PMDread Cthulhu:
It would appear that we haven’t read the same history texts.
At the time of the Third Home Rule Act, the UVF was formed in the north by Carson and Craig, to use whatever means necessary to keep Ulster (9 counties) under British rule.
When WWI gave cover to the British government to delay implementation of the Third Home Rule Act, the UVF went to France and the crisis was avoided for the time being.
After WWI, rather than implement the Third Home Rule Act, the British Parliament instead adopted the Government of Ireland Act 1920, establishing a separate parliament in the north and a separate parliament in the south.
The First Dail Eireann having already been formed in Dublin, the British established parliament in the south was rightfully ignored. Craig and Carson and the boys in the north, however, leaped at the chance to sit in a British mini-parliament dominated by Protestants.
The Irish War of Independence followed, and the partition, which the British parliament had first created in 1920, was recognized, on a temporary basis, by the Treaty which Michael Collins signed on behalf of the Irish government. The Treaty was eventually ratified by the Dail. The border commission which was to have adjusted the border, and which would have brought Tyrone and Fermanagh into the south, together with a portion of Derry City, most certainly, never happened largely due to the untimely death of Michael Collins.
And the rest, as they say, is history.
Posted by on Jul 21, 2009 @ 05:19 PMTad harsh Dread, the Irish (with bugger all ammo and no military knowledge) were offered all out war by a world superpower if they didn’t accept partition, I can’t answer for the military superpower as to why they surrendered.
“Protestant dominated portions of Ulster” think the people of Derry, Tyrone, Fermanagh and Armagh might have an issue with that unless you mean dominated by means other than democratic means, gerrymandering anyone
Posted by on Jul 21, 2009 @ 05:56 PMWhen Tony Blair took Labour back to Downing Street, and particularly when he increased Labour’s majority in the Commons, many were writing the Conservative Party’s obituary. It would be equally foolish to write an obituary for Sinn Fein.
The only problem with that analysis is that Gerry Adams is the Kingpin of Sinn Fein and without him Sinn Fein will flounder in the North. His going might improve things for a time in the South.
But the prophecies of Revelation are running heavily against him at the moment and my money is on Gerry being slipped out the side door before he does untold damage to Sinn Fein, especially as it is becoming increasingly clear that he does have a serious case to answer over the hunger strikers’ deaths.
But without him they are nothing and the SDLP will be back on a level playing field with the old enemy. In fact the SDLP resurgence has already begun with the imminent demise of Adams over the ten dead hunger strikers, so serious is the issue and so guilty is Adams to most who have delved into it.
Posted by on Jul 21, 2009 @ 06:18 PMposted by Kathy C
Hi Paul,
It is anything BUT natural that within the months of june and july of this year alone 3 elected officals have left sinn fein. There is Gerard Foley, Louise Minihaven from Dublin and Christy Burke. Mr. Burke was in sinn fein for decades and to imply that those that have left are the ones who “slough off” does a diservice to his long years of service. There is a deep problem within sinn fein…and as I have stated for some time now….it starts with gerry adams.
Posted by on Jul 21, 2009 @ 06:25 PMSinn Fein could and would gain some traction in the South if they were able to successfully paint the British Government as guilty of similar actions. The arrest of Mark Haddock, a Special Branch sponsored serial killer, today is a prime example. A reminder to supercilious unionists of what their own government was involved in. Start by civilising yourselves…
Posted by on Jul 21, 2009 @ 06:32 PMI find it amusing when ‘Americans’ attempt to offer comment on the British influence in Ireland. Britain may have a responsibility for the partition of Ireland but I dare say that Native Americans may have opted for a similar arrangement rather than the genocide inflicted on them by those incomers whose children now call themselves ‘American’.
Posted by on Jul 21, 2009 @ 06:46 PMMirko: Sinn Fein could and would gain some traction in the South if they were able to successfully paint the British Government as guilty of similar actions.
Hardly. If it’s important to people that they were better than the Brits, they are hardly going to be attracted to a movement that was worse.
Posted by on Jul 21, 2009 @ 06:49 PMposted by Kathy C
Hi Granter,,
I’m glad Americans can amuse you…;) when we discuss the political issue of british influence. We’ve had the influence of the british in our country as well….and we got rid of them….;) in our revolution. However, that’s a bit off topic… and one I would love to discuss with ya…but this one is about how gerry adams is trapped and elected sinn fein members are leaving the party.
Posted by on Jul 21, 2009 @ 06:57 PMGranter, wasn’t America also a English colony, did the natives enjoy special privilges prior to independence, do tell,
how did all those black people turn up there by the way?
Actually why did all those Iriih decide to move there?Posted by on Jul 21, 2009 @ 07:04 PMThis thread is dominated by loons from other countries. Moving on.
Posted by on Jul 21, 2009 @ 07:05 PMBut without him they are nothing and the SDLP will be back on a level playing field with the old enemy. In fact the SDLP resurgence has already begun with the imminent demise of Adams over the ten dead hunger strikers, so serious is the issue and so guilty is Adams to most who have delved into it.
Mental. Absolutely mental and without a hint of evidence.
As for oldruss and ‘Kathy C’ - with all due respect, your analysis and contributions to the debate feel somewhat shallow and contrived. Generally speaking, people resent what they perceive as omniscient, interfering Americans giving their tuppence worth on our affairs (statesmen/women excluded) without having to endure the absolute carnage and pain witnessed and endured by all of us here over the past too many centuries. Your contributions are, in my opinion, pretty vacuous and (unintentionally) condescending.
Posted by on Jul 21, 2009 @ 07:36 PMslug
Don’t abandon hope so readily! ;o)
The topic is other than the conversation, to date, might indicate.
Posted by on Jul 21, 2009 @ 08:15 PMPat the Baker:
Perhaps this entire web site should be restricted to those born and living in Ireland, north and south?
We omniscient, interfering, Americans do freely offer our observations; and also our money, and also the lives of our service men and women.
Ironic too, that Eamon de Valera was born in New York City, N.Y., USA.
I guess I find it a bit narrow-minded that you would limit political discussion to only those who were born and raised in a particular country.
Posted by on Jul 21, 2009 @ 08:20 PMoldruss,
The reason why SF have lost traction in the South is because they are pro-Venezuela, pro-FARC Marxists who demonstrated themselves to be untrustworthy on the issue of the economy which, in Ireland, has until recently settled down into a right-of-centre consensus with the public sector and the unions bought off to keep them quiet. The European election appears to have shown that it’s not possible to turn a protest vote against Europe, as seen in the Nice referendum, into a political platform, and perhaps they made a mistake by identifying themselves with that.
SF would be a weird fringe party in most parts of western Europe, with the possible exception of the former East Germany. Their vote in the six is the anomaly here, then again pretty much everything up here is an anomaly.
As for the Stoops, I was at an election count in 1998 when they were talking about a resurgence, right as their boxes were coming up showing their worst ever result. They’re almost as bad as the UUP for bluffing themselves, and they’re doing it right now. SF’s position as the leader of nationalism in NI is, unfortunately, secure for the time being.
Posted by on Jul 21, 2009 @ 08:20 PMPat,
I don’t think that barb of yours was fair. Do you mean to say that Irish people never venture forth with opinions on how America should be run ? I’ve never met an American who has told me that I’m not allowed to have an opinion on politics in the US because I don’t live there, and I’ve attended a few political rallies in the US.
It does annoy me when people advocate war here, especially when they advocate it over the heads of the repeatedly expressed desire of the Irish people for peace. But oldruss isn’t doing that, as far as I can see.
Posted by on Jul 21, 2009 @ 08:24 PM
